NFL 2015 Wild Card Gameplan

10 more games until Super Bowl 50!

The field of 12 is set for the 2015 NFL Postseason.  In the 2015 Hypothesis Report released before the season started, I correctly identified 7 of the 12: Denver, New England, Houston, and Kansas City in the AFC, Minnesota, Green Bay, and Seattle in the NFC.

I missed on Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the AFC, and Carolina, Arizona, and Washington in the NFC. I originally had Baltimore and Indianapolis making it in the AFC, and New Orleans, Detroit, and Philadelphia making it in the NFC.

As for the 2015 season, I finished 146-110 (+36). I ended 2015 with a season-best 13-3 mark in Week 17.  Here are the three games I missed last week:

– The Saints kept the Falcons from a winning season when S Jamarca Sanford intercepted QB Matt Ryan, setting up a game-winning FG from K Kai Forbath as time expired.

– The Lions intercepted Chicago QB Jay Cutler three times, the only time all season Cutler was intercepted multiple times.

– Washington went into Dallas and allowed only one sack, with no turnovers for the second straight game ¹.

Now, following the Conference Championships (during Pro Bowl week), I’ll do a full review of the 2015 Hypothesis Report. My AFC Championship Game from September is literally impossible (Indianapolis over Baltimore), so I’m forced to put the Steelers in the Super Bowl, where they’ll be defeated by my prescribed NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks. Yes, I realize this will be two #6 seeds in a rematch of Super Bowl XL and Week 12 of this season.

This would also mean that Pittsburgh would defeat Cincinnati and Denver before the AFC Championship; two teams they defeated in December.  Seattle would go through Minnesota and Carolina before the NFC Championship.  Who will Pittsburgh and Seattle meet in the Conference Championships?

I have Kansas City repeating a Week 1 victory over Houston before going to New England and upsetting the Patriots. The Chiefs would then host the Steelers in the AFC Championship, losing a Week 7 rematch.

The Packers would win in Washington to set up a Week 16 rematch in Arizona, where the Cardinals would wash them again. The Cardinals would then host the Seahawks in the NFC Championship, where the Seahawks would beat them for the second straight time.

Full disclosure: I would absolutely not want to see this. I don’t need to see the Steelers (or Broncos) in the Super Bowl. But it’s about what I believe will happen, not what I want. Trust me, it’s never about what I want! Without further ado:

Kansas City at Houston: In Week 1, the Chiefs went into Houston and defeated the Texans 27-20. The Chiefs led by a score of 27-9 at halftime of that game, had zero turnovers, and dominated time of possession 35:19 to 24:41. It will come down to ball security once again, a factor that favors the Chiefs not just because of QB Alex Smith, but because Kansas City will start the game with OLBs Justin Houston and Tamba Hali opposite a Houston OL forced to replace injured LT Duane Brown with OT Chris Clark. It’s not relevant to this game, but the last Chiefs win in the postseason came with a former 49ers QB (Joe Montana) in Houston (against the Oilers) in January 1994; Kansas City is trying to break an 8-game losing streak in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: These division rivals are meeting in the playoffs for the 2nd time ever; the first time was ten years ago, when the Steelers injured Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer on their way to a Wild Card win in Cincinnati, the first of Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis’ six postseason losses as head coach. The last time these two teams faced each other, the Bengals lost starting QB Andy Dalton to a thumb injury, while TE Tyler Eifert was also knocked out. The Steelers took advantage of reserve QB AJ McCarron (2 INTs) and a thin Cincinnati defensive backfield to win 33-20 in Week 14. The Bengals defeated the Steelers in Week 8 in Pittsburgh, a game that saw Pittsburgh RB Le’Veon Bell’s season end (knee).  Pittsburgh’s biggest weakness is their pass defense, but the Bengals offense hasn’t shown the necessary aggression with McCarron at the controls (zero 30-point games since Dalton’s injury), and there’s just no way Lewis gets that elusive first playoff victory in primetime against the Steelers.

Seattle at Minnesota: The Hypothesis Report actually had this matchup happening, but in Seattle, not frigid Minnesota. This is a rematch of Week 13 in Minnesota, where the Seahawks bullied the Vikings 38-7. Minnesota has the only 1,000-yard rusher in the playoffs in RB Adrian Peterson ², but Peterson is dealing with a back injury and was held to a season-low 18 rush yards against the Seahawks this season. The Seahawks will be without RB Marshawn Lynch, but that’s been the case for the past 7 weeks, a stretch that has seen Seattle QB Russell Wilson establish himself further as one of the premier passers in the NFL ³ The Seahawks, despite their 6th seed status, are the only NFL team to rank in the top-5 in scoring offense and defense and total offense and defense this season.

Green Bay at Washington: Out of the four Wild Card games, this game features the two teams least familiar with each other. The last time the Packers faced the Redskins was Week 2, 2013, a 38-20 Green Bay victory at Lambeau Field. ⁴ Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers had a career-high 480 pass yards that day, with WRs James Jones and Randall Cobb combining for 20 receptions for 306 receiving yards. Green Bay has faced every other NFC team at least once since then, and their pass offense has been poor compared to the Washington pass offense led by QB Kirk Cousins and featuring TE Jordan Reed. But Washington hasn’t show they can beat a playoff team all season, and if the Packers can attack Washington’s poor run defense with RB Eddie Lacy, then Rodgers will not be as overwhelmed by Washington’s strong pass rush.

10 years ago, the Pittsburgh Steelers benefitted from injuring the starting QB of the Cincinnati Bengals. They’re poised to take advantage again this year (PC: Cincinnati.com).