I don’t have an extended rant to start this week … just a promo for The Hypothesis Report: Revisited!
Six more teams are on bye, as this will be the last 13-game week on the regular season schedule:
Houston: The Texans are back to their mediocre selves, sitting at 4-5 after a disastrous 2013 and a hot start to 2012. The last time Houston was 4-5 was in 2010, the year before Houston’s two-year playoff run. RB Arian Foster had 2,220 total yards and 18 TDs that season, and WR Andre Johnson had his third-straight 1,000-yard season. The 2010 Texans were done in by a scrub-worthy pass defense, allowing the most passing yards in the league and 33 pass TDs. The 2014 Texans are using their bye week to install 2011 New England 3rd-round pick QB Ryan Mallett as the starter. New head coach Bill O’Brien is going with a player he saw as a rookie, and Mallett has more arm talent than incumbent QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. But Mallett has little mobility, hasn’t shown consistent accuracy in brief appearances, and hasn’t shown much in four years. Houston’s bigger problem is going to come down to finding some help for DE J.J. Watt. 2014 first-overall pick OLB Jadeveon Clowney is the leading solution, but he needs to get healthy. The Texans have four division games left, so at the very least, O’Brien will see if they can separate themselves from the rest of the AFC South bottom-feeders.
Indianapolis: The Colts have reached 6-3 every season with QB Andrew Luck, and the previous two seasons ended at 11-5. The goal for the 2014 Colts should be a first-round bye and a trip to the AFC Championship. Luck has taken his game to the next level, already eclipsing his career-high for TD passes in a season. The Colts have also been adequate for the most part defensively, surviving the loss of OLB Robert Mathis. Teams with good receiving corps are going to test the depth of Indianapolis, but that just means getting into shootouts with Luck. As long as he’s upright, the Colts will have a chance.
Minnesota: The Vikings beat Washington for the second straight November, and new head coach Mike Zimmer has the team a little better than last year at 4-5. The last time Minnesota was 4-5 was in 2006, under then-new head coach Brad Childress. The 2006 Vikings wasted the best run defense in the league by starting 38-year-old QB Brad Johnson 14 games, who produced all of nine TD passes. The 2006 Vikings also had 2nd-round rookie QB Tarvaris Jackson, while the 2014 Vikings have 1st-round rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater trying to survive behind a struggling offensive line. Zimmer has improved the defense, 1 and while none of their wins are particularly impressive, I have to give Zimmer credit for having Minnesota play reasonably competitive football in a season that has been marred by RB Adrian Peterson’s off-field issues.
New England: Last season, the panic over the Patriots and their lack of weapons to start the season was overblown by their Week 10 bye when they had a 7-2 record and coming off a massive offensive onslaught, beating the Steelers 55-31. This year, the panic was sharpened because New England actually lost September games in brutal fashion. Of course, they win five straight, knock off the defending AFC champs, and lead the AFC with a 7-2 record. If they can keep TE Rob Gronkowski on the field, then New England will be a better playoff team than last year. I don’t have much more to say about this team, except that I’m looking forward to the panic levels when they drop another couple of games.
San Diego: Turns out that San Diego’s bye week is this week, not last week. Hard to tell, given their no-show in Miami. But they’re 5-4, which is better than last year at this time when they were 4-5. Head coach Mike McCoy snuck San Diego into Wild Card weekend last year, and San Diego is used to catching fire at the end of the season with QB Philip Rivers. The last time San Diego was 5-4 was 2007, and the Chargers wound up in the AFC Championship with Rivers and RB LaDainian Tomlinson dealing with injury. Of course, 2007 was the last good year San Diego got out of OLB Shawne Merriman and CB Antonio Cromartie. 2 The 2014 Chargers have to overcome injuries to 2012 1st-round OLB Melvin Ingram and 2014 1st-round CB Jason Verrett, as San Diego only has four INTs and 15 sacks this season.
Washington: Well, Washington is 3-6 for the fourth straight season. The results from 2011-2013 have been all over the place. In 2011, Washington ended the season at 5-11 with QBs Rex Grossman and John Beck. In 2012, Washington came out of the Week 10 bye to run the table and win the NFC East at 10-6 with rookies QB Robert Griffin III and RB Alfred Morris. In 2013, Washington lost in Minnesota in Week 10, the first of eight straight lozenges to end the season. The defense gives up points and late leads, but that’s always the case. The stretch run should offer the fairest assessment of Griffin in head coach Jay Gruden’s scheme – here’s hoping that he stays on the field.
2014 #NFL Week 10 picks (8-5 in Week 9, +27 in 2014): CIN, BAL, KC, DET, JAX, NO, NYJ, ATL, DEN, ARI, SEA, GB, CAR
— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) November 6, 2014
Cleveland at Cincinnati: Long story short: Cleveland ran the ball 52 times after ILB Craig Robertson’s INT. Cincinnati ran it only 22 times, and watched QB Andy Dalton put up one of the worst games a 21st century passer could have.
Tennessee at Baltimore: These former AFC Central rivals haven’t met too often, as this will be only the second meeting since Baltimore eliminated Tennessee from the 2008-2009 playoffs. The Titans are coming off a bye, and rookie QB Zach Mettenberger gets a chance to throw against a Baltimore secondary that will be without CB Jimmy Smith the rest of the season. But playing in Baltimore is a tough spot for a rookie passer; the only rookie QB to win in Baltimore against the Ravens was Jake Plummer in 1997. The last seven rookie starters have combined to throw six TD passes and 11 INTs, and even Plummer threw one TD and two INTs for the ’97 Arizona Cardinals. Baltimore RB Justin Forsett should have a decent game.
Kansas City at Buffalo: These two teams play quite often, considering they rarely make the postseason and aren’t in the same division. 2014 will mark the seventh straight meeting between the Chiefs and the Bills, and Buffalo has won four of the last six. Kansas City came up to New York last year and scored 17 points off of three Buffalo turnovers to win 23-13. Buffalo started QB Jeff Tuel last year, so they’ll upgrade with QB Kyle Orton, a former Chief. Orton will have his work cut out for him if rookie WR Sammy Watkins is unable to go, especially with Kansas City OLB Justin Houston set to go against Buffalo rookie RT Seantrel Henderson.
Miami at Detroit: The Reggie Bush Bowl! This is my game of the week, as it features two of the most disruptive defenses in the league trying to show they can solidify a playoff spot after blowing it big time last December. The Dolphins are coming off of their biggest win since they dropped 52 points in Rich Kotite’s first game as head coach of the Jets in 1995. Those Jets were terrible – Miami did that to the San Diego Chargers. The Lions got themselves to 6-2, and reinforcements are coming through off the bye week, as WR Calvin Johnson and 2nd-round rookie OLB Kyle Van Noy return for a home game that should really test Miami QB Ryan Tannehill’s ability to deal with pressure.
Dallas vs. Jacksonville: The last time these two teams met was in Dallas, and then-Jaguars QB David Garrard lit up the Cowboys for four TD passes and one rushing TD in a 35-17 blowout. A little more than a week later, Dallas fired Wade Phillips and promoted current head coach Jason Garrett. This game will be in London, and all I’m saying is, don’t sleep on Jacksonville’s ability to get to the passer. The Jaguars struggled to contain Cincinnati rookie RB Jeremy Hill in Ohio, so they need to be better or RB DeMarco Murray will start another 100-yard rushing streak. Jacksonville needs to keep the rock grounded with RB Denard Robinson – they shouldn’t ask rookie QB Blake Bortles to try and be 2010 Garrard.
San Francisco at New Orleans: Both teams are 4-4, but New Orleans is chilling, winners of two straight primetime games, leading the NFC South and home after nine days off. San Francisco blew a home game coming off their bye, and have to travel to Louisiana in third place. These teams have played some tight games over the last two few seasons, but this is a bad spot for San Francisco. New Orleans is starting to figure out their defense, while the 49ers keep having identity crises during games. San Francisco is going to need rookie ILB Chris Borland to step up again with ILB Patrick Willis dealing with a tricky toe injury.
Pittsburgh at New York Jets: I’m well aware that the Jets are on an eight-game losing streak and have one of the worst secondaries of the century going against a pass offense that has produced 12 passing TDs in two weeks against respectable defenses. I’m sure New York head coach Rex Ryan is aware of that as well. The only way the Jets win this game is if they force turnovers, something that has eluded them all season. New York’s front seven is still playing well enough to make it challenging for Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger, and the game is at MetLife Stadium, so there’s that. New York QB Michael Vick was beat up in Kansas City but he played reasonably well – it goes without saying that Vick needs to help his defense out and hold on to the football.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay: Since Atlanta dropped 56 points on the Buccaneers on #ThursdayNightBeatdowns in September, Tampa Bay has one win, while Atlanta has none. The Falcons are coming off their bye, and QB Matt Ryan will be excited to see Tampa’s incompetent pass defense once again. Tampa Bay is also turning back to QB Josh McCown, since that worked out so well in September. I know I just got finished ranting about how every team has a chance to win these games, but I’ll be legitimately shocked if Tampa wins their first home game Sunday. I’m not saying it’ll be another 40-point blowout, but Tampa Bay has found some interesting ways to lose games against lesser receiving corps.
Denver at Oakland: I don’t think Oakland wins at home either. Although, I hope that the Raiders don’t move to San Antonio, or anywhere for that matter. If they do, they better retire “Raiders” like Houston retired “Oilers” … no other city should have the Raiders. Not even Los Angeles. Now, that being said, I don’t see how Oakland keeps this close, given the sorry state of their offense and the fact that they’re catching the Broncos after Denver took a beatdown in New England.
Saint Louis at Arizona: Arizona just paid QB Carson Palmer to stick around, and now he gets the incredibly burnable Saint Louis secondary to play with. The Rams had a top-five pass rush last year, but they only sacked Palmer once in Arizona last December in a 30-10 Cardinals win. The Cardinals will give Saint Louis QB Austin Davis all the blitzes, and Davis needs to find TE Jared Cook – Davis barely throws to his WRs even when they’re not covered by Arizona CBs Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie. Neither team is going to run the ball all that well, but the only thing preventing a blowout for the Rams will be Davis’ ability to protect the football. The Rams have already upset Seattle and San Francisco this season, but it would be odd to see Arizona let down at home.
New York Giants at Seattle: The Seahawks embarrassed New York QB Eli Manning at MetLife Stadium last year, intercepting him five times in a 23-0 shutout. Manning has thrown only five INTs all season, and New York won in their last visit to CenturyLink Field, beating the Seahawks 41-7 in 2010. This is a tough trip for the Giants though, traveling on a short week. Seattle isn’t as intimidating as last year, struggling to apply pressure and force turnovers, so New York should be able to put up some points. But Seattle also might be figuring out that RB Marshawn Lynch is their meal ticket for the rest of the season. Seattle QB Russell Wilson doesn’t have the receiving corps to exploit New York’s difficulties in coverage, but he should be able to protect the football and help Lynch break off big plays.
Chicago at Green Bay: Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers’ collarbone and hamstring is healthy, and he’s faced far better Chicago defenses than the one he’ll see on Sunday night. Passers have destroyed Chicago this season, and unless Chicago brings Rodgers down hard on his shoulder like last year’s primetime game at Lambeau Field, this one could get ugly quick. Both teams are coming off byes and embarrassing losses before those byes, and Chicago needs to feature RB Matt Forté in all phases of the game. He’s been their best player, and Green Bay’s run defense has long been a major weakness. The September meeting between these two teams was competitive until Chicago QB Jay Cutler’s turnovers; that will be the difference between Chicago giving themselves a chance to win another road game or Green Bay blowing another team out at home.
Carolina at Philadelphia: Philadelphia QB Nick Foles’ collarbone is not healthy, giving QB Mark Sanchez the opportunity to revitalize his career. Sanchez is good when he gets in a rhythm, and he has shown in preseason and in relief that he can move the ball and score points in Philadelphia’s offense. But his (in)ability to protect the football is a primary reason why he was ran out of New York, and he’ll need to prove that he can make consistently sound decisions against a team that can get the passer. 3 Carolina is 1-5-1 after starting 2-0, and QB Cam Newton was thoroughly inaccurate against New Orleans in Week 9. The Panthers will have had ten days to figure out how to attack a Philadelphia secondary that has allowed eight TDs since their last INT in Week 4 4 – they should start with TE Greg Olsen.
This will be Detroit Lions RB Reggie Bush’s first game against the Miami Dolphins, and both teams control their destiny towards a division title. The Lions and Dolphins haven’t made the playoffs in the same season since 1999. (PC: AP/Eric Gay)