The bye weeks are winding down in the NFL. Four teams are off this weekend; the next time that many teams will be off will be Wild Card Weekend:
Baltimore: The Ravens are 6-4 for the first time since 2008, head coach John Harbaugh’s first season as head coach and QB Joe Flacco’s rookie season. That season, Baltimore finished 11-5, won two road playoff games, and lost the AFC Championship in Pittsburgh to the eventual champion Steelers. The 2008 Ravens allowed only 15.2 points per game, allowing the second-fewest passing yards and third-fewest rushing yards in the league. DC Rex Ryan would take the Jets head coaching job, and Baltimore’s defense hasn’t been as good as that 2008 unit since. But after two seasons allowing over 20+ points (one that resulted in a Super Bowl, another that resulted in missing the playoffs), Baltimore is back to allowing under 20 through ten games allowing only 14 TD passes. The concern for this Baltimore team is the fact that six of those TD passes were allowed in one game, the defense has only six INTs all season, 2011 1st-round CB Jimmy Smith is out for the season, and 2013 1st-round SS Matt Elam is getting his playing time cut. Baltimore also has three losses in the division, so they don’t have many losses left to give if they are to make it back to the postseason.
Dallas: After three 8-8 seasons, Dallas is 7-3 at the bye. The last time Dallas was 7-3 was the last time they made the playoffs, five years ago in 2009. Dallas beat the Philadelphia Eagles three times that season, and it’s the only season this century that Dallas has won a playoff game. The 2009 Cowboys were anchored by a defense that allowed only 15.6 points per game, second-best in the league. The 2014 Dallas defense isn’t the disaster I thought it would be despite their underwhelming front seven, but they are 7-3 in large part due to RB DeMarco Murray. The fourth-year runner already has a career-high 1,244 rushing yards on a career-high 244 rushes, while appearing in every game – no small feat after missing 11 games in his first three seasons. The Cowboys used 2011, 2013, and 2014 first-round picks on LT Tyron Smith, C Travis Frederick, and RG Zack Martin, respectively, and the domination in the trenches could have Dallas back in the postseason.
Jacksonville: For the third straight season, the Jaguars are off to a 1-9 start. Not even the ’90s Bengals were this bad. 2012 was Mike Mularkey’s only season as head coach, and 2013 was the end of the Blaine Gabbert experiment. Now, Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley is starting rookie QB Blake Bortles while Jacksonville slogs through the schedule with the league’s worst scoring offense for the second straight season. Bradley found a way to get three straight wins last season, but that goodwill is gone this year. A three-game winning streak this season won’t matter as much going into next season. Jacksonville has a lot of young pieces, but they all need to show some progress down the stretch so that Jacksonville can get off to a strong start in 2015. Another 1-9 start may have Jacksonville starting completely over by this time next year.
New York Jets: New York beat Pittsburgh at home to break their longest losing streak since 1996. That losing streak has them at 2-8 for the first time since 2007, a season that had the Jets split between a veteran first-round pick (QB Chad Pennington) and a struggling, second-year 2nd-round QB (Kellen Clemens). This season, the veteran is QB Michael Vick, while the struggling, second-year 2nd-round QB is Geno Smith. Smith simply threw too many INTs to be taken seriously under this coaching staff; 1 Vick hasn’t thrown for 200 yards in a game yet, but he only has one INT in 102 pass attempts. Of course, Vick has taken 14 sacks already and has always been more of a fumbler. Smith will likely have to play again due to the fact that Vick is not a lock to stay healthy at the rate he gets hit. The QB issues have also hamstrung the WRs; WR Eric Decker leads all receivers with at least ten catches in yards per reception with only 10.5. Decker averaged 13.9 yards per catch in 2011 – the year QB Tim Tebow started in Denver.
2014 #NFL Week 11 picks (9-4 in Week 10, +32 in 2014): MIA, ATL, CHI, CLE, GB, SEA, CIN, SF, STL, TB, SD, DET, NE, TEN
— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) November 12, 2014
Buffalo at Miami: I wrote the following preview for #ThursdayNightBeatdowns:
Miami just lost LT Branden Albert for the season due to a knee injury, and are moving rookie OT Ja’Wuan James to the blind side. Not good. But Miami is at home, and their pass rush is going to tee off on Buffalo’s offensive line too. Set the over/under for sacks at ten. It’s going to be a slugfest, but I see the screws lightening up on Buffalo’s run defense. If Miami RB Lamar Miller can get healthy for Thursday night, he could be the difference in a Miami win.
Miller gained a game-high 98 yards from scrimmage, while Buffalo was held under 300 yards out of the end zone.
Atlanta at Carolina: The Panthers are 1-6-1 over the last eight games; if it weren’t for Riverboat Ron winning the division last season, he’d be gone. Atlanta is 3-0 against the NFC South and 0-6 outside the division. At that rate, the Falcons could mess around and go 6-10 and host a playoff game. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan threw three INTs in Carolina last season, but he should have a slightly better time dealing with Carolina’s pressure without DE Greg Hardy to worry about. Carolina QB Cam Newton looked like he needed time off during Monday night, and now he’s on a short week; Atlanta’s defense is not fearsome, but a bounce-back performance for Newton seems unlikely on a short week.
Minnesota at Chicago: The Vikings are coming out of the bye to face a Chicago team that has allowed 13 TD passes without an INT during their three-game losing streak. Chicago allowed six TD passes in the first half of Sunday night’s loss, while the Vikings have six TD passes for the 2014 season through ten games. If Lambeau Field is Chicago QB Jay Cutler’s hell, then Soldier Field against the Vikings is heaven, as he is 5-0 as Chicago’s starter at home versus the Vikings with 13 TD passes and six INTs. Minnesota’s defense has done a great job getting pressure this season, leading the NFC in sack percentage. Chicago needs to feature RB Matt Forté to take pressure off Cutler and the embattled Bears defense.
Houston at Cleveland: The battle of the Brady backups! Houston QB Ryan Mallett gets his first career start opposite Cleveland starting QB Brian Hoyer in yet another game where Hoyer is up against a former coach of his in Bill O’Brien. Houston is coming off a bye, but RB Arian Foster will not play due to a Week 9 groin injury, leaving underwhelming 6th-round rookie RB Alfred Blue to start. Blue is averaging only 3.4 rushing yards per carry, and has yet to score a rushing TD, but the opportunity will be there against Cleveland’s weak run defense. Hoyer has done a great job most of the season avoiding negative plays, and that will be the key in this game against a Houston defense that hopes to pair DE J.J. Watt with a healthy rookie OLB Jadeveon Clowney for a full game.
Philadelphia at Green Bay: The Eagles beat the Packers at Lambeau Field last year 27-13, a game in which Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers was out due to a collarbone injury and Philadelphia QB Nick Foles hit three deep TDs on Green Bay’s secondary. This year, Foles has the collarbone injury, and Philadelphia QB Mark Sanchez starts on the road on a short week. Whereas Foles targeted outside WRs DeSean Jackson and Riley Cooper last year, Sanchez has found a nice rhythm with rookie WR Jordan Matthews, who runs primarily out of the slot. Green Bay’s run defense got a boost from moving LB Clay Matthews inside Sunday night, and they’ll be challenged by Philadelphia RB LeSean McCoy, who ran for 155 yards at Green Bay last season. If Rodgers isn’t avalanched by Philadelphia’s pass rush, then it will be a long day for the Philadelphia secondary.
Seattle at Kansas City: The last time the Seahawks won in Kansas City was when the two teams were in the AFC West. A relatively reeling Seattle defense lost another key piece when DT Brandon Mebane was placed on injured reserve with a torn hamstring. Combined with the continued absence of ILB Bobby Wagner, things are looking up for Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles, who is still looking for his first 100-yard rushing game this season. Seattle does get SS Kam Chancellor back, which will be key against Kansas City TE Travis Kelce, the most dangerous receiving threat the Chiefs have. Seattle wants no part of having to protect the passer more than 40 times; look for the Seahawks to score the first rushing TD against the Chiefs this season.
Cincinnati at New Orleans: Including the playoffs, the Bengals are an embarrassing 6-15 in prime time games under head coach Marvin Lewis. Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has lost six of those eight contests, and his performance on Thursday night at home in Week 10 was disturbing. But the Bengals like how he bounces back from his prime-time no-shows, and this Sunday afternoon game will be indoors and shown only locally. The extra time off doesn’t hurt either, and the last time Cincinnati WR A.J. Green got to play indoors was October 2013, when he hung 155 receiving yards on the Lions. The Bengals have failed to stop the run, but they have allowed only ten passing scores this season.
San Francisco at New York Giants: The 49ers and Giants haven’t met in New York New Jersey since 2008. Both teams have had second-half issues for most of the season: San Francisco hasn’t scored a meaningful second-half touchdown in over a month, while New York has been outscored 72-28 in the second half during their four-game losing streak. If San Francisco doesn’t fly over and run the ball 30 times, then head coach Jim Harbaugh is insane. The 49ers are 5-0 when they run at least 30 times, 0-4 when they don’t, and New York just gave up the equivalent of Ben Tate’s 2014 production in one game Sunday in Seattle. San Francisco lost 1st-round CB Jimmie Ward and ILB Patrick Willis for the season, but they get OLB Aldon Smith back.
Denver at Saint Louis: This is where the picks get funky, but you know the Networks United is selective when it comes to conventional wisdom. In a note that may only interest six people, the Broncos haven’t beaten the Rams on the road since 1982, when John Elway was at Stanford and the Rams played at Anaheim Stadium. So how do the Rams upset the defending AFC champions? Well, they beat the defending NFC champions at home already with extreme levels of special teams trickery, the Rams pass rush is starting to pick up, and the last time Denver QB Peyton Manning saw Saint Louis DC Gregg Williams, he was throwing a game-sealing pick-six in Super Bowl XLIV. The only thing Saint Louis QB Shaun Hill offers is a chance to win the turnover battle, something the Rams haven’t done all season.
Tampa Bay at Washington: The Buccaneers look like hell, vacillating between getting blown out and blowing close games. But they still have enough talent to potentially make it a long day for the Washington secondary, as rookie WR Mike Evans is coming off back-to-back 100-yard receiving games. Of course, Washington is coming off a bye and QB Robert Griffin III will be dropping back against a bottom-five pass defense. Tampa Bay QB Josh McCown has to find a way to get WR Vincent Jackson and Evans involved, because this game has sneaky shootout potential. Griffin loves to take the sack, so Tampa Bay needs to get something out of DE Michael Johnson. 2
Oakland at San Diego: Both teams are playing desperation games. Oakland has lost 15 straight going back to last season, while the Chargers entered their Week 10 bye on a three-game losing streak. Oakland rookie QB Derek Carr lit up San Diego for four TDs in October, but Carr has thrown only five TDs and five INTs in the 16.5 quarters since he gave the Raiders a fourth quarter lead in the Chargers game. San Diego won’t have rookie CB Jason Verrett for the rest of the season, so the secondary may be vulnerable again. But this should be an opportunity for San Diego QB Philip Rivers to get back on track as well.
Detroit at Arizona: The Game of the Week will leave the winner in the lead at the top of the NFC. Recent history favors Arizona, as they have beaten the Lions five straight times overall and seven straight times in the desert. The last (and only) time the Lions won in Arizona was when the Angry Birds were called the Phoenix Cardinals, in 1993. Arizona head coach Bruce Arians’ first win came in Week 2 last season when the Cardinals beat the Lions in Arizona 25-21, getting a hand from two missed Detroit field goals. In this battle of great defenses, dangerous WRs, and impotent rushing games, the difference should be between which QB cracks with crippling turnovers – something that hasn’t felled either Detroit QB Matthew Stafford or his former backup, Arizona QB Drew Stanton, yet this season.
New England at Indianapolis: New England QB Tom Brady’s recent history in Lucas Oil Stadium suggests this game will be memorable. The last time Brady played in the stadium was for New England’s Super Bowl XLVI loss to the Giants, and the last time he visited the Colts, 4th and 2 went down in 2009. Of course, this game is prime time, Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck has thrown seven INTs in two losses against New England, and the Patriots have beaten the Colts four straight times. Both teams are coming off bye weeks, and New England isn’t running the ball nearly as well as they were the last two seasons. But while Luck is on a tear this season, so is Brady, and this could be Brady’s first game of the season playing indoors.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee: I hope they have a cam on all the flighty Steelers fans. I guarantee this game will be all about the Steelers and what they did or didn’t do. Just know that Tennessee head coach Ken Whisenhunt and DC Ray Horton are going to treat this like their Super Bowl and bring all the danger on Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger. These two former division rivals have found a way to meet for the seventh straight season, and the Titans have won three of the last six, including the last two. The Titans are coming off a bye, while Pittsburgh’s defense has frequently shown that they can keep any team in a game, so don’t be shocked when rookie QB Zach Mettenberger and rookie RB Bishop Sankey look competent on Monday night.
Arizona Cardinals QB Drew Stanton, a Michigan native and Michigan State alum, was drafted by the Detroit Lions in 2007. Now, Stanton is trying to keep Arizona ahead of Detroit at the top of the NFC. (PC: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images North America)