Two more teams are on bye this week, and then the Holiday Season commences. For some veterans, it is the last stand, depending on what teams they are on. Teams are cutting players who aren’t with the program, but no team has clinched a playoff berth just yet:
Carolina: The Panthers started the season 2-0, but lost to bye week partner Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football, giving up 264 rushing yards. The Panthers have only one win since, and the last time they celebrated anything was when Cincinnati K Mike Nugent missed a 36-yard field goal in overtime that would have broken a tie with no time remaining. Carolina enters the bye on a five-game losing streak, matching head coach Ron Rivera’s longest, set back in 2012. The Panthers started 3-8 that season, struggling with a pass offense that struggled beyond WR Steve Smith and TE Greg Olsen. The offense still isn’t special in 2014, and they released critical WR Jason Avant, but the bigger problem is a run defense that went from respectable in 2013 to abysmal in 2014, allowing the fifth-most rushing scores in the league so far. They’re only a game out of first place in their terrible division, but the Panthers have missed DE Greg Hardy far more than they should have. A “Riverboat Ron” style winning streak seems unlikely this year.
Pittsburgh: Like the Panthers, the Steelers had to cut an insubordinate player ahead of their bye week, releasing RB LeGarrette Blount. Unlike the Panthers, Pittsburgh has avoided going on losing streaks all season, though their fickle fans want a different coach fired for each of their losses. The last time the Steelers were 7-4 was 2005, when they became the first sixth seed to win the Super Bowl. The team still has four defenders from that team still on this team: SS Troy Polamalu, OLB James Harrison, DE Brett Keisel, and CB Ike Taylor. Of course, neither of those players are as effective now as they were then, and this team isn’t keyed by DC Dick LeBeau’s unit anymore. The big guns for the 2014 Steelers are on offense, where WR Antonio Brown leads the NFL in receiving yards and RB Le’Veon Bell is second in the NFL in total yards from scrimmage. Don’t forget, the offense still has two players from the 2005 Super Bowl champion team in QB Ben Roethlisberger and TE Heath Miller.
2014 #NFL Week 12 picks (10-4 in Week 10, +38 in 2014): KC, ATL, NYJ, CHI, CIN, IND, MIN, NE, PHI, STL, SEA, DEN, SF, NYG, NO
— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) November 20, 2014
Kansas City at Oakland: Well, here’s the preview from the Week 11 Obs:
Oakland is 0-10 this season, and have lost 16 straight games. I think a win is coming somewhere on their schedule. But I don’t see it coming on Thursday night unless rookie QB Derek Carr gets some help from RB Latavius Murray (in lieu of underwhelming veteran RB Darren McFadden and completely washed RB Maurice Jones-Drew) or one of those random WRs Oakland lets on the field. The Raiders have kept games close, but their lack of firepower has held them back all season. They lack weapons like Charles and Kansas City TE Travis Kelce, and that may be the difference here.
L. Murray came through! But he was concussed. So despite Oakland’s best efforts, they did not blow this game. Good for them. Kansas City RBs Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis combined for only 25 touches (only two carries for Davis) in game the Chiefs had no business losing yet didn’t deserve to win.
Cleveland at Atlanta: Fun parallel of talent on display in this one: In the 2011 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns traded their first-round pick (6th overall) to the Atlanta Falcons for five picks, including their 2011 and 2012 first-round picks. The Falcons selected WR Julio Jones, while the Browns used the first-round picks on DT Phil Taylor and since-released QB Brandon Weeden. Jones has been very good, but the trade didn’t help Atlanta’s depth issues. Meanwhile, the Browns fired multiple head coaches and general managers since the 2011 Draft, but they got WR Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft. Basically, I expect Atlanta QB Matt Ryan to better take advantage of Jones at home more than Cleveland QB Brian Hoyer to take advantage of Gordon in his first game of the season.
Tampa Bay at Chicago: The return of Lovie Smith! (And Josh McCown!) The last meeting between these teams took place in London, a 24-18 contest won by Chicago after former Tampa Bay QB Josh Freeman threw his fourth INT on Tampa Bay’s last possession. Chicago got its secondary together a little bit last week, but they will have to do with Tampa Bay rookie WR Mike Evans, who is on a tear with three straight games of 100+ yards and a TD. Of course, Tampa Bay also has to deal with Chicago WRs Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey, as QB Jay Cutler also got his at together somewhat last week.
Cincinnati at Houston: Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton is 0-3 against the Texans, with the last two losses coming in Houston during the postseason. Dalton was awful as a rookie in Houston, throwing zero TDs and three INTs, while the entire offense failed to gain 200 yards in Houston the following year. Cincinnati’s defense may catch a break in the absence of Houston RB Arian Foster, but Cincinnati’s run defense is so bad that Houston rookie RB Alfred Blue may still do work on the Bengals at home. Enter Cincinnati rookie RB Jeremy Hill, who has two 150-yard rushing games in his last three outings and leads all rookies in rushing. Hill will need another big game in order to help keep Houston DE J.J. Watt from wrecking Dalton’s visit home.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: This game has the highest over/under and the highest line. All the disrespect coming to the Jaguars, who now share their one-win status with Oakland. This game marks a nice assessment point for Jacksonville rookie QB Blake Bortles, who made his NFL debut against the Colts in Week 3. Bortles and the Jaguars are coming off the bye week, and Bortles has eight starts under his belt (some would say eight starts too many). Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck has to adjust to life without RB Ahmad Bradshaw, who is on injured reserve after reeling in six TD catches.
Green Bay at Minnesota: The Vikings turned in their worst game of the season at Green Bay in October, a TNF beatdown that saw Minnesota backup QB Christian Ponder throw two INTs and Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers throw three TDs in 17 attempts. Minnesota should be much more prepared this time around, and they have a few personnel boosts in rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater, TE Kyle Rudolph, and newly claimed RB Ben Tate. I’m not expecting big things from either player, but Bridgewater would have started the first meeting if healthy, while Green Bay’s run defense is at the bottom of the league. Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer needs his defense to come through, and that means rookie OLB Anthony Barr being a key disruptor. The only way to beat Green Bay is to get to Rodgers before he can laugh at you by the end of the third quarter.
Detroit at New England: This will be Detroit QB Matthew Stafford’s first game against New England, which may have been a bigger problem if he was with a different coaching staff. Having head coach Jim Caldwell and OC Joe Lombardi have helped Stafford spread the ball around a little more, if not more effectively. Detroit WR Calvin Johnson may see more of bigger New England CB Brandon Browner, while Detroit WR Golden Tate sees more of CB Darrelle Revis. The Lions have struggled to run the ball and protect the passer effectively, and they must do both against a New England defense built to take away primary air options. Detroit brings the NFL’s best defense into New England, and their ability to defend TE Rob Gronkowski will determine their success on a day that New England figures to pass early and often.
Tennessee at Philadelphia: The Houston Oilers never defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, but the Eagles have never beaten the Titans. 1 The Titans lost on Monday night and have to travel to Philadelphia, but that shouldn’t concern Tennessee head coach Ken Whisenhunt. After all, he was the San Diego OC last season when the Chargers lost on Monday night in Week 1, then traveled to Philadelphia to beat the Eagles the following Sunday. The bigger concerns for Tennessee are the facts that QB Zach Mettenberger isn’t Philip Rivers, and the Tennessee run defense has been terrible. This should be a big opportunity for RB LeSean McCoy to score and get 100+ rushing yards in the same game for the first time all season.
Saint Louis at San Diego: Saint Louis DE Chris Long still isn’t ready to return from his ankle surgery, but the rest of the Saint Louis defensive line is coming to San Diego looking to disrupt another AFC West passer. The Rams haven’t beaten the Chargers in San Diego since 1975, a 13-10 overtime victory by the Los Angeles Rams, and the rumors surrounding a possible Rams return to Southern California provides another level of intrigue to this contest. San Diego QB Philip Rivers has to be wondering if his line can contain DE Robert Quinn, and if he’ll get any relief from his running game, though RB Ryan Mathews had a decent return from injury after missing seven games. Like last week, the Rams should only be looking for ball security from QB Shaun Hill, though rookie RB Tre Mason appears to finally have the lion’s share of the work in the run game. In a game that figures to be close, look for Saint Louis K Greg Zuerlein to be a major factor.
Arizona at Seattle: This is the Game of the Week, with the 9-1 Cardinals looking to match last year’s win total and get a second-straight win at CenturyLink Field. This time, Arizona starts QB Drew Stanton in Seattle, marking the sixth different QB to start for Arizona in Seattle in as many years. 2 Arizona passers have been dreadful at Seattle lately: under head coach Pete Carroll, Cardinals passers have completed 51 percent of their passes for 4.6 yards per throw, with two TD passes and 11 INTs. One of those TDs was a game-winner to Arizona WR Michael Floyd, so any points scored could potentially be a game-winner with these two defenses. Both run defenses should neutralize the offenses, with Seattle getting ILB Bobby Wagner back but losing C Max Unger, so Seattle QB Russell Wilson has to find a way to throw the ball precisely to keep drives alive.
Miami at Denver: Miami QB Ryan Tannehill held up well against Buffalo’s pass rush in Week 11, but he did take five sacks at home. That reshuffled offensive line is going to be in trouble dealing with the noise in Denver. Of course, Miami’s pass rush is a force to be reckoned with, and they certainly have the horses to execute a similar gameplan to what the Rams did in Week 11. Denver WR Emmanuel Sanders and TE Julius Thomas were banged up in Saint Louis, but they should be able to play. The Broncos haven’t lost consecutive games since September 2012, but they’re going to have to tough this one out behind their defense.
Washington at San Francisco: These teams met in Washington for Monday Night Football in Week 12, and it resulted in another Washington home loss, because that’s what Washington does at home on Monday nights. San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick had three TD passes, while Washington was held under 200 yards, allowing two sacks each to DE Justin Smith and OLBs Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks. San Francisco head coach Jim Harbaugh used his olive jar analogy again, suggesting this time that TE Vernon Davis will break out against Washington’s porous pass defense:
Harbaugh on TE @VernonDavis85‘s production: “He is ready to break out. Use the olive jar analogy… The olives will start coming out.” — San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) November 21, 2014
Meanwhile, Washington head coach Jay Gruden sounds like he’s had it with QB Robert Griffin III, who has accounted for only two TDs all season. The 49ers have found contributors defensively, and if Washington could only score seven points at home against Tampa Bay coming off a bye, then it will be a big surprise to see the offense break out at Levi’s Stadium.
Dallas at New York Giants: The Cowboys are coming off a bye, and they had their way with the Giants last month in Texas. New York is going to struggle with Dallas WR Dez Bryant and RB DeMarco Murray, so they’re going to need RB Rashad Jennings and rookie WR Odell Beckham to ball out as well. New York QB Eli Manning also has to get back to protecting the football, but that goes for the entire team as well; TE Larry Donnell lost two fumbles in Dallas last month. Donnell has more fumbles this season (three) as Dallas TE Jason Witten has over the last ten seasons. Another Giants loss, and they’ll have the NFL’s longest current losing streak.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo: This game has been moved to Monday in Detroit, as Buffalo got all the lake effect snow. The Bills absolutely handled the Jets in October, from QB Kyle Orton throwing four, basically five TD passes, to New York QB Geno Smith throwing three INTs and getting mercifully benched. The Bills are coming off a TNF layoff, but the Jets are coming off a bye and a Week 10 win against the Steelers that saw them win the turnover battle for the first time this season. The key for the Jets will be applying immediate pressure on the passer early. Losing home field advantage hurts for Buffalo, as Detroit fans may visit Ford Field just to boo former Detroit head coach and current Buffalo DC Jim Schwartz one more time.
Baltimore at New Orleans: This will be Baltimore’s first visit to the Superdome since winning Super Bowl XLVII, and only their third game in the Superdome in franchise history. Baltimore is also coming off a bye. The last time these two teams met was in 2010, where former Baltimore RB Ray Rice accumulated 233 total yards from scrimmage and two TDs. New Orleans QB Drew Brees has also lost to Baltimore every time he has faced them. Brees should be able to fully utilize TE Jimmy Graham and use him to attack a Baltimore secondary that will be finding its way without CB Jimmy Smith.
Patrick Peterson and the No Fly Zone. Richard Sherman and the Legion of Boom. (PC: Arizona Cardinals)