The biggest shakeup we have going into the weekend was the Seattle Seahawks trading WR Percy Harvin to the New York Jets. Interesting timing for me, as I had just explained Harvin’s six-touch, zero-yard performance versus Dallas with this:
No go-to receivers in Seattle. Not a one #DALvsSEA
— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 12, 2014
Percy Harvin is a fun player to have on your team, but he is not my idea of a No.1 WR (I’m talking real life, not fantasy) #Seahawks — Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 13, 2014
Now, the last time I had to go in about a high-maintenance WR was when Philadelphia released DeSean Jackson. I’ll get to the Eagles in a moment, but the issue with Harvin in Seattle had to have been magnified by a mostly inept passing performance by the Seahawks against Dallas.
If Geno had the kind of game Russell Wilson had today, it would feed the masses for weeks #DALvsSEA
— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 12, 2014
So let’s run down the factors of this Seattle trade:
- Harvin is a durability risk, having missed 16 games due to various injuries, the most serious being hip surgery in 2013.
- Harvin is a personality risk, a factor in Minnesota trading Harvin to the Seahawks for Seattle’s 2013 1st-round pick, a 2013 7th-round pick, and a 2014 3rd-round pick.
- Harvin signed a big contract upon arriving in Seattle … but Seattle needs the money to help pay for guys like Wilson.
- Harvin was not being utilized well in Seattle this season. Other than the jet sweep and the bubble screen, it looked like Seattle was fitting a square peg into a round hole. Harvin averaged 6.0 yards on his 22 catches this season, with no TDs. Harvin’s six touches versus Dallas amounted to a loss of one yard.
- It’s not like Seattle can’t win without him. They won 12 regular season games last season with Harvin out, and the NFC Championship.
Just like DeSean Jackson wound up on a bad football team known for dysfunction, Harvin lands on the 1-6 Jets, a team that has a lame duck head coach and a “developing” young quarterback. New York GM John Idzik used to work in Seattle, and the theory used to hold that the Seattle offense was supposed to be a rough model for the Jets: QB Geno Smith as Wilson, RB Chris Ivory as Marshawn Lynch, Pro Bowlers at LT and C, 1 and offensive coordinators that run a West Coast scheme. The biggest problems for the Jets has been Smith’s lack of ball security and New York’s inconsistency sticking to the run. Harvin joins WR Eric Decker and rookie TE Jace Amaro as new targets for Smith, but neither Decker or Harvin are consistent downfield threats; they do most of their damage in the intermediate routes. It makes for an interesting locker room as well, with QB Michael Vick and RB Chris Johnson having uninspiring moments this season. But this moves sets Seattle back. They don’t have WR Golden Tate to fall back on this season, and it will be asking a lot for 2014 2nd-round WR Paul Richardson and 4th-round WR Kevin Norwood to be ready to fill in. Wilson is going to have to earn his money and Lynch is going to need the ball, and that’s with a banged-up offensive line. Let’s throw it over to the teams on bye:
Philadelphia: 
Yes, Darren Sproles has a “spruise”. And yes, Chip Kelly is on a bye week, where he got the team to go tempo on the team picture. Kelly also got the Eagles to five wins much faster this season, as the 2013 Eagles didn’t with their fifth game until November 10. The last time the Eagles started 5-1 was 1980, the year of Philadelphia’s first Super Bowl appearance. That Eagles team allowed the fewest points in the league, while the 2014 Eagles are 12th. Philadelphia ranks second in the NFL in scoring, but credit is due to the defensive/special teams scores. In addition to new K Cody Parkey’s accuracy, 2 Philadelphia has scored on a Sproles punt return, a kickoff return by RB Chris Polk, two blocked punts, a pick-six, and two scoop-and-scores. Philadelphia’s offensive line has had to deal with suspension and injuries, which has been part of the reason for RB LeSean McCoy’s slow start 3 and QB Nick Foles’ league-leading ten turnovers. 4 Philadelphia’s offense has been much slower this season without DeSean Jackson, but there is reason to think that the team will be better as the season progresses. The 2013 Eagles didn’t really get going offensively until November, and C Jason Kelce and LG Evan Mathis are set to return later in the season.
Tampa Bay: On the other end of the spectrum are the Buccaneers, 1-5 and terrible once again after six games. The last time the Buccaneers were 1-5 was 2004, a season that featured another of former head coach Jon Gruden’s mediocre offenses. That was Tampa’s worst season in over ten years, but since the start of the 2004 season, the Buccaneers have five seasons of at least ten losses. The way new head coach Lovie Smith’s defense has performed, Tampa Bay is headed for another 10+ losses. Tampa Bay is allowing a league-worst 34 points per game, and have allowed a 111.9 passer rating. Basically, they have made every QB they face look like Aaron Rodgers, on average. This, despite recent high draft picks on SS Mark Barron and CB Johnthan Banks and free agent acquisitions like FS Dashon Goldson and CB Alterraun Verner. The offense lost OC Jeff Tedford due to health issues, and they have been unimpressive regardless of the QB or RB. But I’m not sure it would matter if Aaron Rodgers himself was the starting QB. Smith and DC Leslie Frazier are overseeing what may be the worst pass defense in NFL history.
2014 #NFL Week 7 picks (7-7-1 in Week 6, +18 in 2014): NE, BAL, BUF, CHI, DET, GB, CIN, CLE, SEA, WAS, KC, DAL, OAK, DEN, HOU — Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 16, 2014
New York Jets at New England: Here’s what I said about this game heading into Thursday night:
It’s a short week, and New England doesn’t have a reason to fear any of New York’s receivers (that includes Eric Decker, who made it through Sunday’s game with his hamstrings intact). New York would be smart to test New England’s run defense, as ILB Jerod Mayo is out for the season due to a patellar tendon injury; Smith on the road on a short week sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. New England has their own challenges, as RB Stevan Ridley blew out his knee in Buffalo and will miss the rest of the season. But if the Jets don’t get to Brady, things might get ugly. New England’s passing game has turned the corner, while the Jets lost CB Dee Milliner to a torn Achilles Sunday. Brady is also 6-0 as a starting QB on Thursdays; expect him to focus on protecting the ball and letting the New England defense take advantage of a quarterback who rarely brings it on the road (Smith: 6 TDs, 15 INTs, 2-8 record as QB on the road).
I’ll get deeper into this game with the rest of the Obs from Week 7, but New England DT Chris Jones went from the goat of last year’s OT Jets win to the hero with a walk-off blocked field goal. It was fitting that the game ended like that, as New York controlled the line of scrimmage and the clock, but could not overcome trading their field goals with Brady’s three touchdown passes.
Atlanta at Baltimore: The battle of the 2008 first-round passers! While Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has the edge in Pro Bowl appearances with two, Baltimore QB Joe Flacco is a former Super Bowl MVP. Atlanta’s defense has had all kinds of problems this season, while Flacco is already on pace for a career-year, tossing 12 TDs and only three INTs. Baltimore is much better at protecting Flacco at home, allowing only three sacks in three games, while Atlanta has only six sacks for the season. The last time Ryan faced Baltimore, he came up with a 4th quarter comeback, but his pass protection may be an issue on the road. 5
Minnesota at Buffalo: A matchup of the two most unfortunate franchises in Super Bowl history, as both the Vikings and the Bills are 0-4 and haven’t made an appearance in 20 years. If the Vikings had issues blocking the Lions last week at home, they should not expect much relief in Buffalo. The Bills bring a top-five pass rush against a Minnesota offensive line struggling to protect their frail rookie QB, Teddy Bridgewater. Long a terrible run defense, the Bills are also the league’s top run defense, allowing fewer than three yards a rush. Buffalo QB Kyle Orton, former Chicago draft pick, has a 2-3 record as a starter against the Vikings, and Buffalo has pretty much given up on RB C.J. Spiller and WR Mike Williams as major parts of the offense.
Miami at Chicago: The Brandon Marshall Bowl! Miami did a terrible job of holding on to a four-point lead at home with the Packers driving, and now they have to deal with dominant Chicago WRs Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey. Miami’s only CB over 6’0″ is rookie Walt Aikens, while starting CBs Brent Grimes and Cortland Finnegan are giving up over four inches of height to Chicago’s behemoths. Chicago also has their starting offensive line intact for the first time since Week 1. Miami RB Lamar Miller will be the latest team to test Chicago’s banged up linebacker corps, as OLB Lance Briggs will miss another week.
New Orleans at Detroit: The Reggie Bush Bowl! New Orleans is coming off their bye week as the only 2013 NFC playoff team with a losing record, and they will face former Saints Bush, FB Jed Collins, and former QB coach and current Detroit OC Joe Lombardi in the Motor City. New Orleans QB Drew Brees is 4-0 vs. the Lions as the Saints’ starting QB, but he hasn’t faced a Detroit defense like the one DC Teryl Austin is running. The Lions are allowing the fewest points in the league, have the most sacks, and are allowing only 3.3 yards per rush. Detroit’s offense has struggled without WR Calvin Johnson, but New Orleans has really struggled to rush the passer this season.
Carolina at Green Bay: Carolina QB Cam Newton has looked very good as he has gotten healthier this season, and he is back to getting it done on the ground as well after rushing for 107 yards and a TD in Cincinnati. He will be challenged by Green Bay’s strong pass defense, though CB Sam Shields is out and CB Tramon Williams is hobbled with an ankle injury. Carolina rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin made the trip to Wisconsin despite suffering a concussion in Cincinnati; he has looked great when he has held onto the ball with four TD catches and four dropped passes. Carolina is also bringing a banged-up running game to Green Bay with DeAngelo Williams and Fozzy Whittaker out; RB Jonathan Stewart will return from a knee injury to start against Green Bay’s bottom-ten run defense. This is another opportunity for Green Bay RB Eddie Lacy to get going, as Carolina’s league-worst run defense has allowed three runners to go over 100 yards this season.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis: The last time Cincinnati won in Indianapolis was 1997, the year before Peyton Manning was drafted. Since then, the Bengals have lost six times in the Hoosier State, all with Manning starting. The Colts have QB Andrew Luck now, and he threw four TDs in Cincinnati last year without a sack or a turnover. But the Bengals manhandled the Colts for 155 rushing yards and three TDs in a 42-28 win. With the Bengals lacking receivers again, they will need to rely once more on RBs Giovani Bernard and rookie Jeremy Hill against Indianapolis’ bottom-five run defense.
Cleveland at Jacksonville: The Jaguars went to Cleveland last year and knocked off the Browns 32-28, as Jacksonville WR Cecil Shorts had Cleveland CB Joe Haden in tears: 
Expect a close contest here. This will be the first game Cleveland plays without C Alex Mack since he was drafted 21st overall in 2009, and it remains to be seen how it will affect the run-heavy Browns. Cleveland has thrown the fewest passes of any team except for Seattle, but Jacksonville has the league’s worst pass defense other than Tampa Bay; expect a big day from Cleveland TE Jordan Cameron. Cleveland also has the AFC’s worst run defense, but Jacksonville is averaging only 3.5 yards per rush this season, offering little relief for rookie QB Blake Bortles.
Seattle at Saint Louis: The Seahawks are in the midst of a crisis, as outlined above. But it is not just their offense, as their defense hasn’t been as strong against the pass as last season and hasn’t been good at rushing the passer, with only seven sacks and two INTs. The Rams are on a short week, and they went from one of the best pass rushing teams in the league to arguably the worst in recent NFL history. The Rams will absolutely get a sack against Seattle’s struggling pass protection, but they blow coverage on a weekly basis. Seattle may not have their offense together this week, but the defense should be ready to show shades of 2013 against Rams QB Austin Davis.
Tennessee at Washington: It’s Washington’s homecoming game, so there’s that. Tennessee will start QB Charlie Whitehurst for the third time in four weeks, making this the most we’ve seen Whitehurst play in one season since he was the 81st pick in the 2006 NFL Draft. Whitehurst should be attacking Washington’s bottom-five pass defense, but he’s a “sack QB”, and he’ll have Washington OLB Ryan Kerrigan in his grill all day. On the other spectrum is Washington QB Kirk Cousins, a certified “pick QB” going up against a Tennessee defense that has already intercepted seven passes. Tennessee is 0-4 when they allow over 100 yards rushing, so you would think Washington RB Alfred Morris would get a chance to keep Cousins from confusing Washington head coach Jay Gruden again with mind-boggling turnovers.
Kansas City at San Diego: The Chiefs are coming off their bye to face the best team in the AFC in San Diego. The Chiefs lost their first three games of the season coming out of their bye last year, and they haven’t won in San Diego since 2007, back when Kansas City WR Dwayne Bowe showed the ability to rack up 164 yards and a 51-yard TD. The Chargers showed in Oakland that their defense is quite average, but Bowe has gone 28 straight games without 100 yards receiving. Enter RB Jamaal Charles and TE Travis Kelce: the Chiefs have found baffling ways to forget about both at various points in the season, and doing so in San Diego is an invitation to come up short again. San Diego QB Philip Rivers has to deal with Kansas City’s pass rush, but the Chiefs will not want to get into a shootout with the league’s highest rated passer.
New York Giants at Dallas: This is my game of the week and the Cowboys’ first NFC East game of the season, as the Giants get their road division games out of the way before Halloween. With the Eagles off, Dallas can become the first NFC team to reach six wins. New York QB Eli Manning was battered for six of Philadelphia’s eight sacks Sunday night, while he lost his best receiver over the last few seasons when WR Victor Cruz tore his patellar tendon. Making matters more difficult for New York is that RB Rashad Jennings is still out; New York will have to rely heavily on their three 2014 offense draft picks (1st-round WR Odell Beckham, 2nd-round G Weston Richburg, 4th-round RB Andre Williams). New York was dominated for 203 rushing yards in Philadelphia, and now they have to stop the top workhorse in the league, Dallas RB DeMarco Murray.
Arizona at Oakland: Arizona QB Carson Palmer and LT Jared Veldheer return to the Black Hole! The Cardinals are the only team in the league that hasn’t thrown an INT, an impressive feat considering that Palmer has never started the season without throwing a pick in his first two games. Arizona is still a bottom-five run offense relying on a QB who has a history of arm issues, but Oakland still has a bottom-five pass defense that can’t get to the QB. Oakland rookie QB Derek Carr appeared to turn the corner in his development with four TDs against the Chargers, and Arizona’s secondary has been quite burnable this season. Oakland should be able to protect Carr, but running the ball will be very difficult against Arizona’s top-five run defense.
San Francisco at Denver: This should be memorable, and not just because of the touchdown record Denver QB Peyton Manning will break. The 49ers are coming into Denver on a short week after beating the Rams in Saint Louis on Monday night, and they won’t have ILB Patrick Willis, ILB NaVorro Bowman, or OLB Aldon Smith, while CBs Tramaine Brock and rookie Jimmie Ward are questionable. San Francisco DC Vic Fangio was in Indianapolis with Manning from 1999-2001, though that didn’t help him much as Houston’s DC from 2002-2005, as the Texans lost all eight of those games against Manning’s Colts. This will also be Manning’s first game against the QB he replaced in Indianapolis, San Francisco head coach Jim Harbaugh, who wanted to “evaluate” Manning during Manning’s 2012 free agency. San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick has played very well this season, but he’ll be without at least LG Mike Iupati as he tries to make up for a terrible Sunday Night Football appearance against the Bears earlier this season against Denver’s top-ten defense.
Houston at Pittsburgh: So, who is going to block Houston DE J.J. Watt? The only time Pittsburgh saw Watt was in 2011, Watt’s rookie season. Watt didn’t have a sack, but the other Texans had five while Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger threw a game-sealing pick as Houston won 17-10 at home. Also notable from that 2011 game was Houston RB Arian Foster destroying the Steelers for 155 rushing yards and the go-ahead 42-yard 4th quarter TD run, and that’s when Pittsburgh was the best defense in the league. Pittsburgh definitely isn’t the best defense in the league, and Foster has had ten days to rest up and watch how Cleveland destroyed the Steelers on the ground.
New York Giants QB Eli Manning won his first four games at AT&T Stadium, but the Giants turned the ball over six times in a Week 1 loss in Dallas last season. Can New York get over .500, or will the Cowboys win their sixth straight game? (PC: bigblueblitz.com)