First up: if you did not see my midseason review, check it out here!
Second down: For the 2nd time in 4 weeks, I had a 5-9 week. It’s been that kind of season. Let’s look at what didn’t go according to plan:
– Credit Jaguars K Jason Myers for following up his missed 26-yard FG with a game-winning 53-yard FG – even if the Ravens should have escaped with the win.
– The Lions tried to blow it, but the pass rush got to Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers 3 times as Detroit won in Wisconsin for the first time since 1991.
– The Eagles failed to protect QB Sam Bradford against Miami’s pass rush, and backup QB Mark Sanchez threw what may have been the worst INT of the season with Philadelphia down 1 point with 2nd and goal in the 4th quarter.
– The Rams held Chicago’s WRs to 24 receiving yards, but Chicago TE Zach Miller had 107 yards and 2 TDs, while Chicago RB Jeremy Langford gained 182 total yards and scored on an 83-yard TD.
– Tampa Bay completely shut down Dallas’ run game, holding the Cowboys to 42 rushing yards on 21 carries.
– Washington QB Kirk Cousins had a perfect passer rating against the worst pass defense in NFL history in Rob Ryan’s last game as New Orleans defensive coordinator.
– While Denver QB Peyton Manning had the worst game of his career, the Kansas City offense spent most of the day failing to put the ball in the end zone – until RB Charcandrick West scored on an 80-yard receiving TD, part of his 161 yards from scrimmage.
– The Seahawks had their primetime home win streak snapped, as Arizona scored the 3rd-most points in a primetime game at Seattle ever.
– The Texans and Bengals both gained only 256 yards in Cincinnati Monday night, but the Texans managed to score a pass TD – the Bengals didn’t, for the first time all season.
This week marks the last set of open dates. After Monday night, every team will have played ten games:
Cleveland: The Browns are 2-8 for the first time since 2012, a season that ended at 5-11 and with head coach Pat Shurmur and general manager Tom Heckert being replaced (…by a head coach and GM who would be replaced a year after that). The Browns are going all in on 2nd-year QB Johnny Manziel, but the defensive 1st-round picks have been the issue. Rookie NT Danny Shelton is the centerpiece of a run defense that has given up 150+ rushing yards in 7 of 10 games. But at least he’s playing – 2nd-year CB Justin Gilbert was a healthy scratch in Week 10. 3rd-year OLB Barkevious Mingo plays more on special teams than defense. 2011 1st round NT Phil Taylor is out of football. 2010 1st round CB Joe Haden has missed half the season with injury and has been terrible the other half, allowing 4 TD passes in 30 targets and only getting his hands on 2 passes. All of these issues are contributing to a defense that ranks 29th in both yards and points allowed.
New Orleans: I’m going to keep it simple with the Saints, another last-place team at 4-6. The Saints were 4-6 last year too, but they were tied for 1st. The division is better, while New Orleans’ defense is worse. Actually, it’s the worst. The Saints are dead last in points and yards allowed, and former Raiders head coach Dennis Allen replaces Rob Ryan as defensive coordinator. Now, the Saints are on pace to allow an NFL record 45 TD passes this season (they have allowed 28 through 3 games), while allowing a passer rating of 116.6. The highest passer rating allowed of all time is 110.9, by the 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions. The Saints also allow 424.7 yards per game – only the 1950 Baltimore Colts and the 2012 Saints allowed more yardage per game. Will it get better now that Ryan is gone? Color me skeptical:
Explains a lot. #Raiders allowed NFL-worst 101.6 passer rating in Allen’s 36 games as head coach https://t.co/mBZKHU12wC
— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) November 17, 2015
New York Giants: The Giants haven’t been 5-5 since head coach Tom Coughlin and QB Eli Manning’s first season together in 2004. That team went 2-9 after the bye week, with Manning going 1-6 as a starter, and finished 6-10. Coughlin’s Giants teams are 70-50 (58.3 percent) in the 1st 11 weeks of a season since 2004, 6th-best in the NFL. That success hasn’t stood up down the stretch, as Coughlin’s Giants teams are 31-35 (47.0 percent) in Weeks 12-17 of a season since 2004, which ranks 19th in the NFL. The Giants have also missed the playoffs 5 of the last 6 seasons. But the Giants also score a lot of points, ranking 4th with an average of 27.3 points per game, and they have a 2-time Super Bowl MVP QB in Manning playing the best ball of his career (21 TD passes, 6 INTs this season).
Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh was 6-4 at this time last year as well, and they ended the season with a division title at 11-5. They’re in 2nd place for now, comfortably ahead of the mediocrity making up the bottom of the Wild Card race. The run defense has been much improved under new defensive coordinator Kevin Butler. The Steelers only allow 3.8 yards per carry, good for 7th in the NFL, while they’re on pace to allow only 5 rushing TDs. That would be the fewest rushing TDs allowed since 2010, when the team won the AFC.
Now, before I get on to the Week 11 picks, here’s the history that the Browns, Saints, Giants, and Steelers are fighting: no team that has had a Week 11 bye has won the Super Bowl since the NFL included byes on the schedule in 1990.
1990: NFL schedule included bye weeks. (Each team got 2 byes in 1993.) Week 8 has yielded the most Super Bowl champs: pic.twitter.com/kU3C7cAYlG — Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 4, 2015
Mind you – 3 of the 4 teams on bye have Super Bowl winning QBs. And the Giants are supposed to win the Super Bowl every 4 years. So … we’ll see …
2015 #NFL Week 11 picks (5-9 in Week 10, +6 for 2015): JAX, IND, BAL, CAR, DEN, DET, HOU, MIA, GB, PHI, SEA, KC, CIN, NE
— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) November 19, 2015
Tennessee at Jacksonville: Unlike last season, this TNF means a lot with 2 games separating the NFL’s worst division from top to bottom – the Titans will be breaking in new starting WRs against a Jacksonville defense that saw CB Davon House get his first 2 INTs of the season.
Indianapolis at Atlanta: Going with a major upset pick here, but I feel like the Colts will take care of the ball with QB Matt Hasselbeck facing the worst pass rush in the NFL; the Falcons have lost 3 of their last 4 games against teams that all have losing records.
Saint Louis at Baltimore: The Ravens are the first team since at least 1940 to have all of their first 9 games come down to 8 points or fewer; Baltimore saw new Rams starting QB Case Keenum last season, and held him to 185 passing yards on 42 passes.
Washington at Carolina: Washington QB Kirk Cousins is getting a spike in pass defense competence, going from the Saints league-worst pass defense at home to the league’s best pass defense on the road in Carolina.
Denver at Chicago: I’m happy that the Broncos are finally getting a chance to see what they have in 2012 2nd-round QB Brock Osweiler, who just needs to protect the football and put the 3rd-best pass defense in the NFL in a position to succeed in Chicago head coach John Fox, offensive coordinator Adam Gase, and QB Jay Cutler’s revenge game.
Oakland at Detroit: Never forget – for as bad as Detroit’s drafts have been, they were the beneficiaries of Oakland’s decision to select QB JaMarcus Russell first overall in 2007 over Detroit WR Calvin Johnson, who gave the Raiders 214 receiving yards and 2 TD in 2011.
New York Jets at Houston: Now that DE J.J. Watt feels like his team’s defense is good enough to talk smack, I’m expecting the Texans to back it up on a short week against former QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is coming off thumb surgery but will start for the Jets.
Dallas at Miami: The Dolphins haven’t beaten the Cowboys at home since 1984; expect Dallas QB Tony Romo, making his first start in 2 months, to help get the running game going against Miami.
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia: Eagles QB Mark Sanchez has the highest INT percentage of any player with at least 900 pass attempts since 2009, but he also has a higher TD percentage in that time than Sam Bradford; Philadelphia will look for more scoring effectiveness against Tampa Bay’s bottom-five defense.
Kansas City at San Diego: The Chiefs made times miserable for San Diego QB Philip Rivers last season, holding him to 2 TD passes while intercepting him 3 times and sacking him 9 times in a 2014 season sweep.
Green Bay at Minnesota: It would be shocking to see MVP QB Aaron Rodgers drop 4 straight games – a reigning MVP QB didn’t lose 4 straight games the following season since 2002; expect Rodgers to figure things out against a VIkings team that he is 7-1 against in his last 8 starts (23 TDs, 1 INT in those games).
San Francisco at Seattle: The Seahawks defense blew yet another 4th quarter lead to an offense that could put digits up – the 49ers are bringing their league-worst offense to CenturyLink Field, so looking at where the Seahawks have succeeded this season, 1 there’s shutout potential here.
Cincinnati at Arizona: While the focus will be on Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton and the player he replaced with the Bengals, Arizona QB Carson Palmer, the X-Factor will be Cincinnati’s ability to put pressure on Palmer like they did when he was a Raider. 2
Buffalo at New England: There’s only one matchup weapon left for Patriots QB Tom Brady, and that’s TE Rob Gronkowski, who has scored 10 TDs against the Bills since entering the league in 2010, more than any other player.
The Cincinnati Bengals are playing their 3rd straight primetime game, and the Arizona Cardinals are playing their 2nd straight game on SNF. It’s a big spot for Arizona QB Carson Palmer, who the Bengals made the 1st pick of the 2003 NFL Draft. (Delane Rouse/Icon SMI, Heinz Kluetmeier/SI)