NFL 2015 Week 2 Gameplan

Is it just me, or was the natural reaction to Week 1 to overreact?

I had a poor showing with my Week 1 picks, going 6-10. I can’t remember being that off on an opening weekend. Let’s go into some things I noticed as I slogged through the first 16:

– The Colts knew a run-heavy gameplan from the Bills was coming, and their new defensive line ¹ did a solid job against LeSean McCoy (17 rushes, 41 yards). But they struggled to contain rookie RB Karlos Williams (55 yards on 6 rushes).

– Texans head coach Bill O’Brien should have switched QBs at halftime; you know he thought of it. His starting QB last season, Ryan Fitzpatrick, only had two multi-turnover games in 2014. Starting QB Brian Hoyer threw an INT on his very first play vs. Kansas City, and he lost a fumble in the 2nd half.

– Panthers at Jaguars was decided by a momentous turnover. It’s just that Jaguars QB Blake Bortles was the one tossing the lollipop that Panthers CB Josh Norman returned for the game’s only 2nd half TD.

– I said it was a longshot for the Rams to get four TDs vs. Seattle. Seahawks SS Kam Chancellor’s replacement, Dion Bailey, gave up the 4th TD to Rams TE Lance Kendricks. That score tied it up for the Rams late in regulation, and it led to Seattle head coach Pete Carroll’s first loss when his team scored at least 30 points since October 28, 2006.

– Washington entered the 4th quarter with a 10-7 lead vs. Miami, and RBs Alfred Morris and rookie Matt Jones would finish with the prescribed 30+ rushes, combining for 149 rushing yards. But the annually poor special teams unit gave up the game-winning punt return TD to Dolphins WR Jarvis Landry, and the release of K Kai Forbath ² means that Washington will have their league-leading 17th K since 2000.

– Rookie Lions RB Ameer Abdullah outplayed rookie Chargers RB Melvin Gordon, outgaining him 94 yards to 67. But despite Abdullah scoring TD on his first carry, the Lions are still winless in San Diego (0-5), and they were the only team to allow a 400-yard passer in Week 1.

– Baltimore made Denver QB Peyton Manning look ragged, holding him under 200 yards passing with no TDs. ³ However, Baltimore QB Joe Flacco was worse, throwing a pick-six in the 3rd quarter to Denver CB Aqib Talib and a game-sealing INT to Denver FS Darian Stewart.

– Tennessee rookie QB Marcus Mariota threw 4 1st half TD passes at Tampa Bay. Former Tennessee QB Jake Locker, the 2nd QB picked in the 2011 NFL Draft, threw 4 TD passes his entire rookie season.

– New Eagles RBs DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews had 3 combined TDs, but rushed for only 13 yards on 11 carries.

– The 49ers were a top-ten defense last season; despite all of the missing pieces, ⁴ the 49ers looked like a top-ten unit again as they shut down Vikings RB Adrian Peterson.

The more I’m off, the more explaining I’ll have to do. Let’s see how much explaining I’ll have after Week 2:

2015 #NFL Week 2 picks (6-10 in Week 1, -4 for 2015): DEN, NE, HOU, CHI, CIN, CLE, DET, NO, NYG, SF, STL, JAX, BAL, PHI, GB, IND

— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) September 17, 2015

Denver at Kansas City:  The key to this game will be Denver’s ability to run the ball; the sledding should actually be easier at Kansas City than it was in Week 1 vs. the Ravens.

New England at Buffalo: New England QB Tom Brady had 361 yards and 4 TD passes when he last visited Ralph Wilson Stadium; it was the only game that the Bills allowed more than 30 points last season.

Houston at Carolina: Houston’s defense wasn’t there in the 1st half against the Chiefs in Week 1, but they’ll be fine if they can parlay their 2nd half performance (109 yards and no points allowed) into a complete game against Carolina’s limited offense.

Arizona at Chicago: Chicago defensive coordinator Vic Fangio held Arizona head coach Bruce Arians’ Cardinals under 24 points all four meetings when Fangio was in San Francisco; the Bears have to take advantage of Arizona’s underwhelming offensive line and force turnovers.

San Diego at Cincinnati: It’s simple for the Bengals: Run the ball, take care of the ball, and make sure WR A.J. Green and TE Tyler Eifert get a combined 15 targets.

Tennessee at Cleveland: Tennessee rookie QB Marcus Mariota is going to get his second head-to-head matchup with a Heisman Trophy winning QB if Cleveland has to start Johnny Manziel; the Browns need the RBs to play better than they did in Week 1 (19 carries, 42 yards for Isaiah Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson at Jets).

Detroit at Minnesota: The Lions get the Vikings on a short week, and they should be better prepared to stop the pass than they were in Week 1 at San Diego.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The New Orleans offense has scored a TD in QB Drew Brees’ last 135 starts, but Brees needs to take better care of the ball this year against the Buccaneers. ⁵

Atlanta at New York Giants: The Giants get the Falcons on a short week, and neither team should be able to stop the other; New York has won five of the last six meetings, including a win last year in WR Odell Beckham’s NFL debut.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh: The 49ers look like the better team along the line of scrimmage, although they are at a major logistics disadvantage (Pittsburgh is at home and played on Thursday, while the 49ers played Monday night).

Saint Louis at Washington: The Rams shut out Washington last year; there’s no way Saint Louis head coach Jeff Fisher names the Robert Griffin III trade compensation as captains again, right?

Miami at Jacksonville: The Jaguars need rookie RB T.J. Yeldon to get 20+ carries here to protect QB Blake Bortles from himself.

Baltimore at Oakland: The Ravens have beaten the Raiders 7 of 8 times in franchise history, and they’ll win again if Oakland chooses not to blitz like they did last week vs. the Bengals.

Dallas at Philadelphia: It was a rough debut for many of the new Eagles, but CB Byron Maxwell gets a break with Dallas WR Dez Bryant out of the lineup; Philadelphia RB DeMarco Murray should be fresh against his old team after getting only 12 touches in Week 1. ⁶

Seattle at Green Bay: The NFC Championship rematch is the game of the week, and Seattle is reeling after their secondary gave up big play after big play at Saint Louis in Week 1.

New York Jets at Indianapolis: For the first time since at least 1950, a QB will face the same team four years in a row with four different teams: Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (1-6 vs. Colts) lost to Andrew Luck’s Colts as a Texan in 2014, a Titan in 2013, and a Bill in 2012.

How many times do the Seahawks escape the Packers?!