NFL 2015 Week 5 Gameplan

We’re over .500!

Two bad weeks for the predictions to start the season have been followed by two straight plus weeks, including going 9-6 in Week 4. Allow me to make some observations on the six I missed:

– It’s tough to beat teams that have significantly more rest; both of Buffalo’s losses this season have come against teams that played on a Thursday the week before.

– Including the playoffs, the Panthers have won 9 of their last 10 games, and they lead the NFL in turnover differential after 4 weeks this season (+8).

– Washington has been all about controlling the clock this season; the Eagles, not so much. It’s hard to win games when the defense is on the field for 40 minutes.

– Browns QB Josh McCown threw for more than 300 yards in back-to-back games, only the 2nd time a Cleveland QB has managed to do that in the last 30 years. Yet, the Browns lost both games, including Week 4 at San Diego. Cleveland’s defense has been the worst in the league this season.

– The Cardinals allowed only 1 sack during their 3-game winning streak to begin the season, but the Rams got to the passer 4 times in a wire-to-wire Saint Louis road win at Arizona.

– Saints RB C.J. Spiller had only 81 total yards on the season before racing for an 80-yard TD reception in overtime to beat the Cowboys.

Four teams are on a bye in Week 5:

Carolina: As mentioned above, the Panthers are doing the little things that lead to wins, like not turning the ball over. On the other side of the ball, CB Josh Norman leads the NFL with 4 INTs (2 TD) and is second with 8 passes defensed. The last time the Panthers started 4-0 was 2003; that team won the NFC Championship.

Miami: This franchise is a straight up dumpster fire. They’re 1-3 for the first time since 2012. For the 3rd time since 2000, they changed coaches in the middle of a season. Interim head coach Dan Campbell, the former TE coach, was playing in the NFL in 2009. Defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle was fired and replaced by a DB coach, Lou Anarumo, who last coordinated a defense in 1994 at the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy. They signed DT Ndamukong Suh in free agency, and the defense has one sack through 4 games. There’s talent here, but head coach Joe Philbin’s last season with the Dolphins should have been last year.

Minnesota: The Vikings split their first 4 games, just like last season. Minnesota’s secondary is strong, led by FS Harrison Smith and CB Xavier Rhodes.

New York Jets: The Jets are off to their best start through 4 games since 2010. That was the last time the Jets started 3-1, and the last season the Jets appeared in the playoffs. The Jets haven’t had consecutive losing seasons since hiring Bill Parcells in 1997, so it shouldn’t be a total shock that the Jets are trending back up. No team has allowed fewer points per game than the Jets, and they should be better if DE Sheldon Richardson can stay off the suspension list.

Let’s look at the Week 5 games (and the Game of the Week):

2015 #NFL Week 5 picks (9-6 in Week 4, +1 for 2015): IND, ATL, BAL, SEA, GB, KC, PHI, TB, BUF, DET, NE, DEN, NYG, PIT

— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 8, 2015

Indianapolis at Houston: The Colts are going to have to get it done without starting QB Andrew Luck, but unless backup QB Matt Hasselbeck turns into a Luck-like turnover machine, they should be able to kick their way to yet another close win against a divisional rival, setting a record in the process. ¹

Washington at Atlanta: Washington is one of 3 teams that haven’t intercepted a pass yet this season; Atlanta WR Julio Jones might have a filthy line by the end of this one.

Cleveland at Baltimore: The Ravens have beaten the Browns 13 out of 14 times under head coach John Harbaugh, and they got an extra ten days off to plan for a bad Browns defense.

Seattle at Cincinnati: The Seahawks defense is off to another slow start, failing to grab an interception through 4 games; however, this will be the best defense the Bengals will have faced to start the season.

Saint Louis at Green Bay: Green Bay WR Jordy Nelson’s season-ending knee injury has had very little impact on Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers; including postseason, Rodgers has won 17 of his last 19 home starts, throwing 48 TD passes and ZERO INTs in 574 pass attempts.

Chicago at Kansas City: The Bears haven’t won at Kansas City since 1993; the Chiefs need to stop being cute and get 20+ carries for RB Jamaal Charles.

New Orleans at Philadelphia: Expect the Eagles to put a lot of pressure on New Orleans’ offensive line, especially with the Saints not running the ball well to start the season.

Jacksonville at Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers have lost 11 straight home games, while the Jaguars have lost 11 straight road games; expect a low-scoring affair here, with Tampa Bay’s DBs having an easier time than Jacksonville’s secondary.

Buffalo at Tennessee: The Bills are looking for their first win in Tennessee; they’ll need QB Tyrod Taylor to be a playmaker and rebound again after a slow start in Week 4.

Arizona at Detroit: Every team has a win through 4 weeks … except the Lions, who need another big game from DE Ezekiel Ansah to have a chance against the Cardinals.

New England at Dallas: The Cowboys get some needed reinforcements in troll DE Greg Hardy and ILB Rolando McClain, but the Patriots are coming off a bye and will be ready to take advantage of the mismatches involving TE Rob Gronkowski.

Denver at Oakland:  The Broncos have a bad offense, but they are 4-0 behind the best defense in the NFL, which features arguably the best secondary in the league (CBs Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and Bradley Roby, SS T.J. Ward, and FS Darian Stewart).

San Francisco at New York Giants: Maybe the 49ers need a primetime game – they’ve lost three straight since their Week 1 MNF win – but a vastly improved Giants run defense is going to leave the 49ers offense in the increasingly incapable hands of QB Colin Kaepernick.

Pittsburgh at San Diego: The Steelers are going on the road after a very long rest, the second time in 5 weeks that they will have a major logistical advantage over a California team – however, the Steelers won’t get suspended WR Martavis Bryant back against a Chargers pass defense that allowed more than 300 pass yards to the Browns last week.

The Cowboys get former Panthers DE Greg Hardy back from suspension, and they hope he keys the pass rush against the Patriots. (AP Photo/Mike McCarn, File)