We’re almost at the quarter pole for the 2016 NFL season! I say almost because the Eagles and Packers will play their fourth games of the season this Sunday. I’d be upset if I were those teams, and I’m annoyed that the league couldn’t let everyone get a game in every week and just start the byes in Week 5. But whatever. Check out the units that I’ve highlighted as major team strengths or weaknesses across the league:
Broad definitions through 4 weeks.
As usual, open to discussion… pic.twitter.com/yMdiiVUVBx— Law Murray ? (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 6, 2016
I’m coming off a very similar record in Weeks 3 and 4, going 9-6 this past week:
– The Jaguars got their first win of the season, dropping the Colts to last place in the AFC South with a 30-27 win in London. This was another game that saw Jaguars WRs Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns score TDs; last year, Robinson and Hurns were one of three duos to score 10 receiving TDs each. After the game, the Colts released CB Antonio Cromartie.
– The Falcons dropped 40+ on a divisional foe for the second week in a row, beating the Panthers 48-33 to take sole place at the top of the NFC South. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan had 503 pass yards and WR Julio Jones had 300 receiving yards, marking the first time ever that a team had a 500-yard passer and 300-yard receiver in the same game.
– The Bears also got their first win of the season, defeating the Lions 17-14 to end a six-game losing streak. Chicago’s pass defense got the job done, holding Detroit QB Matthew Stafford without a TD pass for the first time in his last ten games and snapping his streak of games without multiple INTs at 11.
– For the first time since 1993, the Patriots were shut out at home, as the Bills beat them 16-0. Buffalo did an outstanding job defending New England’s wide receivers, holding Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, and rookie Malcolm Mitchell to a combined one reception for 16 yards on eight targets.
– The Rams defeated another divisional opponent that made the playoffs last season, defeating the Cardinals 17-13 in Arizona to retain their spot at the top of the NFC West. Los Angeles DT Aaron Donald dominated Arizona’s offensive line with five QB hits, 1.5 sacks, and a forced fumble. The Rams also forced five turnovers.
– Worst of all, the Chiefs still haven’t won in Pittsburgh since 1986, taking a 43-14 beatdown that wasn’t even that close. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger had five TD passes and only five incompletions, and the game was over with Pittsburgh up 36-0 with 11:19 left in the third quarter.
Four teams are on a bye this week:
- The Jaguars enter their bye with a win, but they still have started 1-3 or worse for the sixth straight season.
- The Chiefs last started 2-2 in 2014 – a season that ended with a winning record (9-7), but no playoffs.
- Like the Jaguars, the Saints enter their bye with a win, but also with a 1-3 start for the third straight season.
- The Seahawks last started 3-1 in 2014 – a season that saw Seattle win the NFC Championship.
Last time #Redskins won in Baltimore was in 1955… vs #Colts. Eddie LaBaron's 1-yard TD run in 4th quarter gave Washington a 14-13 win. pic.twitter.com/RuoQW3vSUv
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) October 5, 2016
This week’s historical note features Washington in Baltimore, a place Washington hasn’t won in since beating the 1955 Colts 14-13. Since then, the Colts won 9 straight before moving to Indianapolis, then the Ravens beat Washington in their only home matchup in 2008. We’ll see if that streak continues:
2016 #NFL Week 5 picks (9-6 in Week 4, +17 for 2016): ARI, BAL, NE, DET, IND, MIA, MIN, PIT, DEN, DAL, BUF, OAK, GB, CAR #TheNU
— Law Murray ? (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 5, 2016
Arizona at San Francisco: Even if the Cardinals were going to start QB Carson Palmer tonight, there was a chance that this game would be fairly competitive. After all, the 49ers are much more competitive at home, and it took a game-winning TD run by Palmer in Week 12 last season for the Cardinals to win in San Francisco 19-13. Arizona will start QB Drew Stanton, and as I highlighted at the top of this piece, the Cardinals are off to a poor start to the season in pass protection. The 49ers get their best pass rusher from last season back with OLB Aaron Lynch coming off suspension, 1 but ILB NaVorro Bowman is out for the season with a torn Achilles. Arizona’s biggest advantage will be defensively against the pass, as San Francisco QB Blaine Gabbert averages a league-low 6.1 pass yards per attempt.
Minnesota at Houston: I know more folks are interested in the Super Bowl XXXIII rematch, but this is the only game featuring two teams that made the postseason last year. The Texans have never beaten the Vikings (0-3), and they are still looking for their first points on the road this season. Houston QB Brock Osweiler treats rookie WR Will Fuller like he used to treat WR Emmanuel Sanders in Denver, and the result is Fuller emerging as Osweiler’s WR1. 2 Houston will be challenged by a Minnesota pass defense that is absolutely swarming this season, holding passers to a 67.7 passer rating. Houston’s pass defense has also been stellar, holding passers to a 67.4 passer rating; it will be key for Minnesota QB Sam Bradford to continue his great ball security. 3
New York Giants at Green Bay: The logistical advantage goes to the Packers, who are at home following a bye week while they watched the Giants lose on Monday Night Football. The Packers have never lost three straight home primetime games under head coach Mike McCarthy, but after losing on Thanksgiving to the Bears and in Week 17 to the Vikings, that’s what’s at stake against the Giants. Now, the Giants last trip to Lambeau Field was great, as they upset the 15-1 Packers in the 2011 NFC Divisional, on their way to a Super Bowl win. Since New York QB Eli Manning won that Super Bowl MVP, however, he has started 68 consecutive games without making a postseason appearance, and he has the same record (30-38) as Miami QB Ryan Tannehill in that span. 4 Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers 5 is facing a New York defense that has zero INTs, which marks the first time since at least 1940 that the Giants haven’t intercepted a pass in the first four games of a season.
Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Buccaneers and QB Jameis Winston started this season skrong, knocking off the Falcons in Atlanta behind a 4-TD performance. Since then, Winston has struggled mightily, throwing only 4 TDs, 7 INTs, and compiling a woeful 60.9 passer rating during Tampa Bay’s three-game losing streak. Winston also struggled in two games against the Panthers last season, throwing six INTs to go with a 61.0 passer rating. The question is, can Carolina’s pass defense recover after getting banged on in Atlanta by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones? Carolina QB Cam Newton has a concussion, but backup QB Derek Anderson’s last two starts were wins against the 2014 Buccaneers, and Tampa Bay’s pass defense isn’t much better now than it was then or last year. 6
The only other time the Minnesota hosted the Texans was in 2008, a 28-21 Vikings win. (PC: Star Tribune)