Week 17! Enjoy the chaos!
Ten games have at least minor playoff implications. The most important involve the four AFC teams gunning for a Wild Card spot (San Diego, Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City), as well as the NFC South title game, the only contest guaranteed to be win-and-you’re-in/lose-and-go-home. The NFC North and AFC North will both be up for grabs in Week 17, but the stakes aren’t as high, since Detroit, Green Bay, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have already clinched playoff spots. Week 17 will also determine who gets the first pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Right now, the Tennessee Titans have the top pick, but a loss by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will give them the top pick.
2014 #NFL Week 17 picks (8-8 in Week 16, +43 in 2014): BAL, HOU, SD, NYJ, MIN, NE, PHI, TB, IND, WAS, ATL, DEN, GB, SEA, SF, CIN
— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) December 26, 2014
Cleveland at Baltimore: The Ravens need to sweep the Browns and get help from Kansas City to make the playoffs. Of course, Baltimore had a lead for the last Wild Card spot, but they melted down in Houston behind an epically poor performance by QB Joe Flacco. Cleveland starting rookie QB Connor Shaw shouldn’t have a significantly negative effect on the offense, given the ineptness of Cleveland’s offense. The Browns have lost four straight, five of the last six, 11 straight in December, and six straight in Baltimore. But Flacco isn’t getting his OTs back, so the defense is going to have to make the big plays.
Jacksonville at Houston: The Texans need to sweep the Jaguars and get help from Kansas City and Cleveland to make the playoffs. The odds are against them, as they are against Houston DE J.J. Watt’s MVP chances. But Watt is going to get a chance to be the first player to record two 20-sack seasons. Watt is going up against a Jacksonville offensive line that has allowed a franchise-record 66 sacks this season, the most since the 2006 Oakland Raiders. Houston still starts QB Case Keenum, but Jacksonville has failed to force turnover behind their pass rush, as their DBs haven’t intercepted a pass since Week 9.
San Diego at Kansas City: The Chiefs need to sweep the Chargers and get help from Jacksonville and Cleveland to make the playoffs. Like last year in Week 17, Kansas City will start QB Chase Daniel against San Diego. Unlike last year, the move is out of necessity, as QB Alex Smith suffered a lacerated spleen in Pittsburgh. San Diego QB Philip Rivers threw a game-sealing in a loss to the Chiefs in October, but the Chiefs haven’t intercepted a pass since Week 8. The Chiefs are whatever the opposite of ballhawks are, as they may go down as the worst defense in NFL history in terms of intercepting passes. 1
New York Jets at Miami: This game is just for pride, as New York head coach Rex Ryan is expected to be released on Black Monday after six seasons. Ryan’s team will miss the postseason for the fourth year in a row, taking the steam out of his four playoff wins. Miami head coach Joe Philbin will keep his job despite missing the postseason all three seasons. A big part of that is Miami QB Ryan Tannehill’s development, but he has struggled against the Jets in his career, throwing three TDs and six INTs in five games against New York. The Dolphins nearly lost to the Jets on Monday Night Football earlier this season, and New York QB Geno Smith has played better since that debacle on national television. 2
Chicago at Minnesota: The Bears are starting QB Jay Cutler, one week after he was benched for QB Jimmy Clausen. The Bears weren’t good last season, weren’t good this season, and really haven’t been good since Cutler injured his knee in the 2010 NFC Championship game. Yet, folks expected five players to carry an unbalanced (and now dysfunctional) franchise in disarray. Minnesota rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater has looked like the best rookie passer over the last month, completing 73 percent of his passes and compiling a 105.7 passer rating over the last four weeks. Chicago is 30th in the NFL in opposing passer rating at 102.2, and this could be the last game for Chicago head coach Marc Trestman and his coaching staff.
Buffalo at New England: On the surface, this is a meaningless game, as New England has clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs while Buffalo will miss the playoffs yet again. But Buffalo head coach Doug Marrone is trying to secure his job for next season, while New England head coach Bill Belichick hasn’t lost a home game to the Bills since 2000, his first season. The Bills haven’t had a winning record since 2004, but to get it, they’ll have to stop New England without DT Marcel Dareus and CB Stephon Gilmore. New England TE Rob Gronkowski has scored more of his TDs against Buffalo (nine) than against any other team, and he’s scored in three straight games. The Bills haven’t ran the ball well for most of the season, and they’re coming off a season-worst 13 rushing yards in Week 16.
Philadelphia at New York: The Eagles free fell completely out of the playoff picture after a 9-3 start. Philadelphia QB Mark Sanchez has been here before, as the 2011 New York Jets lost three straight games to fall out of the postseason with Sanchez turning the ball over. The Eagles actually have a chance to match last season’s 10-6 record if they can avoid being completely torched by New York rookie WR Odell Beckham. But don’t feel sorry for the Eagles – they lost the games they needed to win in the division, simple as that. Expect Philadelphia to keep the game out of Sanchez’ hands in his return to MetLife Stadium, as RB LeSean McCoy should finish the season strong against a New York run defense allowing the most yards per rush in the league.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t won a home game all season, and all they have to do is lose another game and they’ll have the first pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. The Saints have lost five straight home games to miss out on a playoff spot, but they have won their last three games on the road. I think the Buccaneers can win this game, with the key being the pass rush. Last week was actually the first time in three games that Tampa Bay lost a game in which disappointing free agent DE Michael Johnson had a sack, so perhaps the Buccaneers force New Orleans into trouble up front for the second straight week. The only time Tampa Bay scored at least 30 points this season was in the Superdome, and that was without rookie WR Mike Evans, who has only 203 receiving yards in his last five games after dropping 209 in Washington last month.
Indianapolis at Tennessee: The Colts locked up the division pretty much when the schedule was released, and they looked like a team completely unmotivated to play in Dallas last week. Indianapolis was so bad that they almost have to show up with something positive going into the playoffs, and it starts with a turnover-free game from QB Andrew Luck. If the Buccaneers win and the Titans lose, then Tennessee will be picking first in the 2015 NFL Draft. The Titans have lost nine straight games, giving up at least 99 rushing yards in every loss. In Week 4, Titans QB Charlie Whitehurst completed only five passes to WRs in Indianapolis, but he also led the team in rushing before getting benched for now-injured rookie QB Zach Mettenberger.
Dallas at Washington: The Cowboys need a lot of things to go right to get the top seed in the NFC, including a tie in the NFC North title game. I think it is more likely that Dallas takes it easy with QB Tony Romo and RB DeMarco Murray against a blitz-happy Washington team. Romo has been the best passer in the league since recovering from his back injury suffered at AT&T Stadium against Washington on Monday Night Football, and he suffered a back injury at FedExField last year as well. Washington QB Robert Griffin III is looking to put one more decent performance on file as he looks to retain his place as the “franchise QB” with head coach Jay Gruden wrapping up an underwhelming first season; finding WR DeSean Jackson down the field should open things up for RB Alfred Morris.
Carolina at Atlanta: The NFC South title game! Assuming there is a winner, the NFL will have a seven-win division champion. I’m not going to clown these teams any further though. The Panthers have allowed the second-fewest passing yards since their Week 12 bye, with CB Josh Norman and SS Roman Harper playing every snap over the last four weeks. The secondary did a great job indoors against New Orleans QB Drew Brees, but now they have to face red-hot Atlanta QB Matt Ryan in the Georgia Dome, and Ryan is on a career-high streak of four-straight 300-yard passing games.
Oakland at Denver: The Broncos need a win to lock up a first-round bye, while Oakland hasn’t won on the road in over a year. The Raiders have gained the fewest yards in the league this season, and have only gained 300 yards on the road once. Oakland RB Latavius Murray should get all the work he can handle to end the season, and maybe he finds some holes in a Denver defense that looked bad on Monday Night Football. The Raiders have also been very good against the run, leading the AFC in stuffs. Oakland’s secondary has been no match over the last three seasons against Denver QB Peyton Manning, who has a 16:3 TD-INT ratio in his five starts against the Raiders since signing with the Broncos in 2012.
Detroit at Green Bay: The Game of the Week from the Networks-United, and one that will determine the NFC North and likely a first-round bye. The Lions have ragdolled the Packers in their last two meetings, holding Green Bay to their lowest yardage totals over the last six seasons. But the Lions haven’t won in Green Bay since 1991, the year before Green Bay hired head coach Mike Holmgren and traded for QB Brett Favre. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford is the 13th QB to lose a start in Green Bay for the Lions since 1991, and he’ll need to play better than he did last week in Chicago and in Week 3 against the Packers – he threw no TDs and two INTs in both wins. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers and his offensive line will be challenged by Detroit’s elite defense, and he won’t get much help from RB Eddie Lacy, but Rodgers has ripped foes at home for 23 TD passes without an INT in seven home wins in 2014.
Saint Louis at Seattle: The Rams haven’t won in Seattle since 2004, the last time they were a playoff team. With the Seahawks a win away from locking up homefield advantage throughout the postseason, the Rams are going to need more than tricks to pull out a victory. Saint Louis caught the Seahawks at the right moment in October, as the Seahawks had just traded WR Percy Harvin and were dealing with playing without ILB Bobby Wagner. Wagner is back, and the Seahawks have won eight of nine games since giving up 28 points in Saint Louis, allowing no more than 24 points since Week 8. The Rams are going to get plenty of sacks and they held Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch under three yards a carry this season, so the Seahawks will have to rely on QB Russell Wilson’s passing and ball security if they want to avoid the sweep.
Arizona at San Francisco: While everyone is feeling sorry for Arizona and their wayward QB situation, their vulnerable defense looks to pick up the pieces from an absolute shellacking Sunday night. The Cardinals allowed a season-high 596 yards at home to Seattle, marking the fourth time this season that the Cardinals allowed at least 500 yards to an opponent. That’s a feat that they share with the 2012 New Orleans Saints and 2013 Dallas Cowboys, two of the worst defenses ever. Perhaps this is the game that San Francisco TE Vernon Davis shows a pulse, as he has scored more TDs against the Cardinals (nine) than any other team in his career. The Cardinals have other issues on offense besides QBs Ryan Lindley and Logan Thomas, as no team is worse at running the football than Arizona this season.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: This is a lame pick for the Sunday night game, though the Bengals avoided the set up by beating the Broncos on Monday Night Football. The Bengals lead the AFC North, and the Ravens and Browns have both spent a week or so at the top at some point in the season. The Steelers haven’t led the AFC North at all in 2014, but a sweep of the Bengals will give Pittsburgh their first home playoff game since 2010. The Bengals are going to have to fire up rookie RB Jeremy Hill against a Pittsburgh run defense allowing 4.4 yards per rush; Hill only got eight carries earlier this month. The Bengals were absolutely obliterated in the fourth quarter by Pittsburgh RB Le’Veon Bell in Week 14, and if they want to win their first back-to-back division titles, they’ll need to contain a player who has averaged nearly 30 touches a game over the last five weeks.
The last time Detroit won at Green Bay was Hall-of-Fame RB Barry Sanders’ 3rd season, in 1991. That was also the season of their last division title, playoff win, and NFC Championship appearance. (PC: Press-Gazette)