.@KirkCousins8 to @KyleRudolph82 for the @Vikings walkoff win in OT. pic.twitter.com/aXSJllOqpB
— NFL (@NFL) January 5, 2020
All four Wild Card games this season were decided by one score for the first time since the 1991 season. Back in 1991, the Houston team (the Oilers!) won at home, and the New Orleans Saints lost at home.
As soon as it became clear that the New England Patriots weren’t going to earn a Wild Card bye, I suggested that the Tennessee Titans would give them severe problems. While the Titans didn’t blow the Patriots out, they did shut them out after halftime while RB Derrick Henry gained 75 percent of Tennessee’s 272 yards. New England QB Tom Brady couldn’t lead a second half drive past the Tennessee 47, and his final pass was intercepted and returned for a TD by CB Logan Ryan, who started his career in New England. Brady is a free agent and is not trying to retire – but the Titans may have ended an era. At the very least, the Titans survived a game in New England where they got ten receiving yards from their wide receivers and dethroned the defending Super Bowl champions.
The Super Bowl champions from the year before, the Philadelphia Eagles, took another step back in the postseason. The Seattle Seahawks beat the Eagles in Philadelphia by a score of 17-9 in the regular season, and they won by the same score at Lincoln Financial Field in the Wild Card. Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz survived everyone else around him getting injured to lead the Eagles to a division title, only for Wentz to get knocked out of his first career playoff game after only two drives. Philadelphia had to turn to 40-year-old QB Josh McCown, who was making his first postseason appearance, and McCown wasn’t able to lead a TD drive. The Eagles took WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside 57th overall in the 2019 NFL draft; despite injuries to WRs Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, and Nelson Agholor, Arcega-Whiteside was not targeted on 12 targets. The Seahawks took WR DK Metcalf 64th overall in the 2019 NFL draft; all Metcalf did was roast Philadelphia’s secondary for 160 receiving yards, including the game’s only second half TD and the game-sealing 36-yard reception.
Saints won Super Bowl ten years ago.
— Law Murray ? (@LawMurrayTheNU) January 5, 2020
Here is how they went out in the playoffs since then. pic.twitter.com/ujRaiuIZln
I take no joy in watching the Saints lose all of these playoff games like this. Especially last year against the Rams. That said, the Vikings earned a tough win after the Saints ate up a 10-point fourth quarter deficit, and the Vikings got a tough game out of RB Dalvin Cook (career-high 28 rushing attempts, game-high 2 TDs).
Arguably the most entertaining game of the weekend was Houston’s win against the Bills to start the weekend. The Houston pass rush led by OLB Whitney Mercilus (3 QB hits, strip-sack that led to turnover) helped the Texans overcome a 16-0 with six minutes left in the third quarter, and it made people forget about Houston QB Deshaun Watson absorbing seven sacks at home. Of course, Watson’s heroic escape of what should have been an eighth sack to find RB Taiwan Jones and set up a game-winning field goal was critical as well. Buffalo QB Josh Allen’s first drive featured a 42-yard rush and a 16-yard TD reception, but it was an adventure of a performance overall that is best summed up by Pablo Torre.
Josh Allen plays like he makes decisions via Twitter poll
— Pablo S. Torre (@PabloTorre) January 5, 2020
Who’s ready for the Divisional Round? #NFLPlayoffs #WeReady pic.twitter.com/76BD9xsgoY
— NFL (@NFL) January 6, 2020
Winning units:
HOU pass rush (OLB Whitney Mercilus)TEN pass defense (CB Logan Ryan)
MIN run offense (RB Dalvin Cook)
SEA pass defense (OLB Cody Barton)
Looking ahead to 2019 Divisional
Vikings at San Francisco: The Vikings beating the Saints as seven-point underdogs capped a thrilling Wild Card Weekend, but oddsmakers aren’t giving Minnesota much of a chance to pull a second straight upset. They will face the #1-seeded 49ers as 7-point underdogs this upcoming Saturday and certainly have a tough road to hoe. Not only will they be on six-days’ rest, they will also be on the road for a second straight game and facing a rested San Francisco team that hasn’t played in two weeks. There are many reasons why no Wild Card team has even reached the Super Bowl since the 2010-11 Packers.
Now, besides all of that, this is actually a nice matchup for the Vikings. The 49ers will be getting OLB Kwon Alexander (pectoral) back, but the weakness of San Francisco’s defense was against the run, and Dalvin Cook is coming. The strength of the 49ers defense is the pass rush, but the Vikings did a solid job protecting QB Kirk Cousins this season. The last four postseason meetings between these two teams have all been in San Francisco, with the 49ers winning the last three. The Vikings’ only postseason win over the 49ers came in the 1987 postseason, and this is the first meeting between these teams in the postseason since the 1997 postseason. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo’s worst career start came in Week 1 last season at Minnesota, where he threw a career-worst 3 INTs and had a 45.1 passer rating. Will San Francisco run the ball? The Vikings allowed 5.7 yards per rush in New Orleans. And San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan was in Washington when Cousins started his career there; will that matter at some point?
Titans at Baltimore: 11 years ago, the Titans hosted the Ravens in the Divisional Round as the Wild Card and lost. The Titans can return the favor this time, and Derrick Henry will play a critical role once again. Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill wasn’t great in New England, but outside of a third quarter INT, Tannehill did well to avoid mistakes. Tannehill protecting the football will be key against a Baltimore team that is not good at generating pressure without blitzing. Of course, the Titans were among the worst teams in the league at protecting the quarterback, so expect Henry to get as many touches as possible to avoid that being a factor. Last season, the Ravens won 21-0 in Tennessee, sacking Titans QB Marcus Mariota 11 times while Henry was held to 21 yards on seven carries. While Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson will be ready to go, it seems like RB Mark Ingram II will be limited, taking a pivotal weapon away from the top-ranked rushing offense. I expect the Titans to pull an upset here.
Texans at Kansas City: The Texans have never been to the AFC Championship, while Chiefs are trying to get to their second straight. The Texans have already won once in Kansas City, using the ground game to dominate time of possession, hold off Kansas City’s pass rush, and score three TDs in a 31-24 Week 6 victory. There’s no reason why that can’t happen again. The Chiefs were elite at protecting QB Patrick Mahomes II, but the Texans forced two Mahomes turnovers in October and showed last week that they can make impact plays rushing the passer. I have the Texans breaking through.
Seahawks at Green Bay: The last time the Seahawks beat the Packers was November 1999 – when the Seahawks were still in the AFC. Green Bay has won eight straight home games against the Seahawks, with two of them being playoff games. Now, the Seahawks won the latest postseason matchup in overtime: the 2014 NFC Championship that saw the Packers blow a 16-0 lead. (Sound familiar, Buffalo?) That game required a heroic performance from Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch, and Lynch is back against a bad Green Bay run defense! Even last year in Seattle, the Seahawks used the running game to great effect in defeating the Packers. It will be a great matchup of strength vs strength when Seattle QB Russell Wilson throws against what was a top-ten Green Bay pass defense. Ultimately, this game comes down to how well the Packers protect QB Aaron Rodgers, and the logistics should give the Packers an edge.