Super Bowl 50 Gameplan

The final game is here.

Super Bowl 50!  The first Super Bowl in California in 13 years, Super Bowl 50 will be broadcast on CBS from Levi’s Stadium, home of the Santa Clara San Francisco 49ers. For the third straight season, it’s another battle between the top seeds of both conferences.

The favorite: With a regular season record of 15-1, a 31-24 win in the Divisional round against the defending NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks, and a 49-15 win against the Arizona Cardinals to win the NFC Championship … winner of three straight NFC South division titles and making their first trip back to the Super Bowl in 12 years … the Carolina Panthers.

And the underdog: With a regular season record of 12-4, a 23-16 win in the Divisional round against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and a 20-18 win against the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots in the AFC Championship … two-time Super Bowl winner and winner of the last five AFC West division titles … the Denver Broncos.

The 2015 Hypothesis Report had the Panthers missing the playoffs at 6-10. They responded with one of the best seasons in NFL history. The Hypothesis Report read the Broncos a little better, as I had them going 13-3 before losing in the Divisional round to the Indianapolis Colts. Well, the Colts didn’t make the playoffs. Meanwhile, my predicted Super Bowl champion was upended in the Divisional round by the Panthers…

The Panthers and Broncos have something notable in common: They were both coached by current Chicago head coach John Fox. Fox was hired by the Panthers in 2002, and he went 73-71 in nine seasons, with a 5-3 mark in the playoffs. In 2003, Fox led the Panthers to Super Bowl XXXVIII, where he lost to the New England Patriots. After going an NFL-worst 2-14 in 2010, the Panthers let Fox go. Fox would be hired by another team that finished with the worst record in their conference in 2010: the Denver Broncos, who went 4-12, the most losses in franchise history. Fox would win a division title in each of his four seasons with the Broncos. But the Broncos were smoked 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII by the Seattle Seahawks, and Fox was let go after the 2014 season. The Panthers replaced Fox with current head coach Ron Rivera in 2011, while the Broncos replaced Fox with current head coach Gary Kubiak in 2015.

Gary Kubiak & Ron Rivera will coach in the Super Bowl.

They each replaced John Fox as head coach. pic.twitter.com/tuE4tOkfcC

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 25, 2016

Back to 2011. The Carolina Panthers had the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, and the Denver Broncos had the second pick in the same draft. The Panthers would pair new head coach Rivera with a new QB as they selected reigning Heisman Trophy winner and BCS National Champion Cam Newton out of Auburn. Newton would go on to win the 2011 NFL AP Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Broncos selected OLB Von Miller out of Texas A&M. Miller would go on to win the 2011 NFL AP Defensive Rookie of the year.

This Super Bowl marks only the second in which the two teams were the worst in their respective Conferences within the previous five seasons before the Super Bowl. The only other such Super Bowl was Super Bowl XVI, the first between the San Francisco 49ers (the worst team in the NFC in 1978 and 1979) and Cincinnati Bengals (the worst team in the AFC in 1978 and 1979). The 49ers beat the Bengals 26-21 in Super Bowl XVI, as 49ers QB Joe Montana won Super Bowl MVP. The 1981 AP MVP, by the way, was Bengals QB Ken Anderson. Newton and Miller playing makes Super Bowl 50 the first that pits the top two picks of the same draft against each other.

The only time Newton and Miller met on the field against each other was Week 10, 2012 at Bank of America Stadium. The Broncos scored TDs on the ground, in the air, on defense, and on special teams in a 36-14 blowout. Miller sacked Newton once, which started a day full of Broncos “Superman” taunts of the Carolina QB.

It was a rough day for Carolina QB Cam Newton the last time he saw Denver LB Von Miller – Newton was sacked seven times and had one of his two INTs returned for a TD in a 36-14 Panthers loss to the Broncos in 2012. (PC: SB Nation)

This also will be the first Super Bowl between two QBs drafted #1 overall. But while Newton is the likely league MVP, Denver QB Peyton Manning is a shell of his MVP form. Manning needs this game for his legacy: a Super Bowl 50 win makes him 2-2 in Super Bowls, 14-13 in the playoffs, and he would pass Brett Favre and have a record 200 wins as a starting QB in the regular season and postseason. Newton is 13 years younger than Manning, the largest gap in ages between two starting Super Bowl QBs. But sometimes you can blur The Gap with Versace:

Those #CamNewton #Versace pants are $850.00 btw! I think they look better on #PeytonManning lol! #SB50 pic.twitter.com/A2i6RSUOKT

— dmackdaddy (@dmackdaddy) February 1, 2016

Both teams defeated the Green Bay Packers, with Denver winning 29-10 in Week 8 and Carolina winning 37-29 in Week 9. The Panthers defeated the Indianapolis Colts 29-26 in Week 8, while the Broncos turned around and lost to the Colts in Week 9 27-24. That Broncos loss to the Colts was the only one this season in a game that Peyton Manning finished, Denver’s other three losses were in games finished by backup QB Brock Osweiler, though the first of those games came after Manning threw four INTs against the Chiefs. The Panthers’ only loss of the season came in Week 16 at Atlanta, 20-13, only two weeks after beating the Falcons 38-0 in Carolina.

In addition to Newton, the Panthers had five other first team All-Pros: FB Mike Tolbert, C Ryan Kalil, OLB Thomas Davis, ILB Luke Kuechly, and CB Josh Norman. Miller was Denver’s only first team All-Pro, and the Broncos didn’t have a single offensive player voted to the Pro Bowl. This will be a matchup between Carolina’s top ranked scoring offense and Denver’s top ranked total defense – the only other matchup of that kind in the Super Bowl saw Denver’s top scoring offense from 2013 get blow out by Seattle’s top ranked defense in 2013.

PANTHERS PASS OFFENSE vs BRONCOS PASS DEFENSE

Newton threw 35 TD passes this season, tied for 2nd in the NFL. His WRs are disrespected on a weekly basis, which did more to bolster Newton’s MVP credentials. While Newton didn’t have a WR gain 1,000+ receiving yards, he did have a TE accomplish that feat, as Pro Bowler Greg Olsen led the team with 77 receptions and 1,104 receiving yards. Olsen figures to be the focal point of Denver’s pass defense. The Broncos were the only team in the league to allow fewer than 200 pass yards per game (199.6), but they were worked over by New England TE Rob Gronkowski in the AFC Championship for 144 receiving yards and a TD. Both Denver safeties, SS T.J. Ward and FS Darian Stewart, will be playing somewhat hurt. However, Denver has a pair of Pro Bowl CBs in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr, and they just need to keep up with the speed of Carolina WRs Ted Ginn Jr. and Corey Brown. The Panthers will also roll out veteran possession WR Jerricho Cotchery and 6’4″, 225-pound rookie WR Devin Funchess. The Broncos have one reliable extra defensive back in CB Bradley Roby, a 2014 1st round pick. Newton can make all the throws, but his accuracy can be spotty, and it is hard to move the ball against Denver consistently. ADVANTAGE: Draw/Broncos.

PANTHERS RUN OFFENSE vs. BRONCOS RUN DEFENSE

The Panthers rushing attack is difficult to stop and consistent. The last time Carolina failed to gain 100 rushing yards in a game was Week 5, 2014 in a win vs. the Bears. That’s 31 straight games with at least 100 rushing yards, the longest streak since 1976. Carolina pairs 245-pound offensive weapon Newton with 235-pound sledgehammer RB Jonathan Stewart. Those two combined for 1,625 rushing yards and 16 rushing TDs this season, with 250-pound FB Mike Tolbert mixing in about once a quarter for 4.1 yards a carry. The only team in the NFL that ran the ball more often than Carolina was Buffalo. That will be a departure for the Denver defense compared to what they have seen in the AFC playoffs. The Steelers and Patriots were held to 16 2nd-half rushing yards combined in their postseason losses to the Broncos. Denver plays a 3-4 defense, with DE Derek Wolfe, OLB Von Miller, and ILB Brandon Marshall sharing the team lead with nine TFLs each. The Broncos allowed a league-low 3.3 yards per carry. Newton will be the difference-maker here, but that doesn’t mean he will be the one racking up big yardage. It just means that the Broncos won’t dominate the line of scrimmage like they did in their previous two games. ADVANTAGE: Draw/Panthers.

PANTHERS OFFENSIVE LINE vs. BRONCOS PASS RUSH

The Broncos punished Newton in 2012 with seven sacks, and this year’s squad features a pass rush that led the league in sacks. Denver’s pass rush starts with Miller, who led the team with 11.0 sacks and 32 QB hits this season. Miller lines up on the strongside, opposite weakside OLB DeMarcus Ware. Ware had 7.5 sacks this season, with 16 QB hits. Ware added a team-leading eight QB hits in the playoffs, with seven of those hits coming on Tom Brady in the AFC Championship. Denver also saw four other players record at least 4.0 sacks: DE Malik Jackson (5.0 sacks, 16 QB hits), DE Derek Wolfe (5.5 sacks, 13 QB hits), and backup OLBs Shaquil Barrett (5.5 sacks, 12 QB hits) and first-round rookie Shane Ray (4.0 sacks, seven QB hits). Newton protected the ball and his body better than ever in his fifth NFL season. All five of Newton’s offensive linemen are different than the five that started in his 2012 beatdown vs. Denver. LT Michael Oher has a championship ring from 2012 with the Ravens, a team that had to go into Denver in the Divisional round. RT Mike Remmers figures to see plenty of Miller, which figures to be the biggest mismatch. Kalil and Turner are Pro Bowlers; they figure to see plenty of Wolfe and NT Sylvester Williams. LG Andrew Norwell goes 6’6″, 325 pounds, and is the team’s largest starting offensive lineman. The Broncos are one of the heaviest blitzing teams in the league as well, sending SS T.J Ward often. The only game this season that the Broncos didn’t register at least two sacks was in their Week 9 loss at Indianapolis; Colts QB Andrew Luck rushed for 34 yards and had zero turnovers in a win, but missed the rest of the season with a lacerated kidney.  ADVANTAGE: Draw/Broncos.

PANTHERS PASS RUSH vs. BRONCOS OFFENSIVE LINE

The Broncos have been challenged in the postseason by strong pass rushes already, and it doesn’t let up against the Panthers. The difference is that Carolina, unlike Pittsburgh and New England, takes the ball away even better than they record sacks. Carolina led the NFL with 39 takeaways in the regular season, and they added nine more in the postseason. The Broncos were the only playoff team out of 12 to have a negative turnover differential, with Manning being the biggest factor in that with his 17 INTs. Manning has not thrown an INT since returning to the lineup in Week 17 – 78 attempts without a pick. Like Newton, Manning’s offensive line in this game is also completely different than the 2012 matchup. Unlike Newton, Manning’s offensive line hasn’t been all that strong, allowing 39 sacks this season. The Panthers start veteran DEs Jared Allen and Charles Johnson, but their best edge rushers are DEs Mario Addison and Kony Ealy. Denver’s LT Ryan Harris and RT Michael Schofield have struggled at times, though Manning’s quicker release helps. Carolina’s best defensive lineman this season has been Pro Bowl DT Kawann Short, who led the team with 11.0 sacks and 18 QB hits. Short (315 pounds) and fellow 2013 1st-round FT Star Lotulelei (320 pounds) have a major strength advantage on the interior of Denver’s line, anchored by C Matt Paradis, LG Evan Mathis (a 2005 3rd-round pick by the Panthers), and RG Louis Vasquez. Short figures to be double-teamed often, and while Manning doesn’t often take sacks, he may have to eat turf a couple of times rather than throw multiple INTs. Keep an eye on OLB Thomas Davis: the Pro Bowler will play with a broken arm, but he had career-highs in sacks (5.5) and INTs (four) this season. ADVANTAGE: Panthers.

PANTHERS RUN DEFENSE vs. BRONCOS RUN OFFENSE

The Panthers gave up 11 rushing TDs this past season, which was about middle-of-the-pack in the NFL. But they also allowed only 3.9 yards per carry, which was the second-best mark in the league.  Kuechly and Davis are Pro Bowlers who combined for 15 TFLs this season – yet Short had a team-leading 16 TFLs by himself this past season. The Broncos have a zone-based run scheme, and they got a combined 1,583 rush yards and 12 rush TDs from RBs Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson. Hillman is the speed option with shaky ball security (three fumbles this season) while Anderson is the bigger option who has taken the bulk of the carries in the postseason. This is a tough, even matchup, though Davis’ arm injury looms here. ADVANTAGE: Draw/Panthers.

PANTHERS PASS DEFENSE vs. BRONCOS PASS OFFENSE

No team had a better opposing passer rating this season than the Panthers. On average, passers averaged a 73.5 passer rating against Carolina. That’s somewhere between this year’s version of Rams QB Nick Foles (69.0 passer rating in 2015) and this year’s version of Colts QB Andrew Luck (74.9 passer rating) going up against Carolina every week this year.  The worst passer in the league this season? That would be Denver QB Peyton Manning, at 67.9. Manning had the worst TD-INT ratio of any starter at 9:17, showing poor arm strength and decision-making until being mercifully benched in Week 10. While Manning has avoided INTs, he has shown shaky accuracy and a disability to complete passes downfield in the postseason. When his passes have been on target, drops have been a problem for the Denver receivers. The player on the spot for Denver is WR Demaryius Thomas, who has caught only six of 15 targets. Thomas caught only one of his six TDs this season from Manning, who figures to see Pro Bowl CB Josh Norman for the most part. Norman’s war of words this week have been with the other Denver WR, Emmanuel Sanders, who has been much better with Manning. Sanders has caught five of his six TDs from Manning this season, and Sanders led the team with 14.9 yards per reception. Sanders should have an advantage over CB Robert McClain, who was a midseason addition. Another midseason addition for the Panthers was CB Cortland Finnegan, who was “retired”. The Panthers needed McClain and Finnegan due to season-ending injuries to CBs Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere. What gives Carolina an advantage here are the veteran safeties and Denver’s lack of depth. Denver TE Owen Daniels has spent every season of his ten-year career with Gary Kubiak, and he gained 500+ receiving yards for the seventh time. Daniels won’t threaten the seam though, so fellow ten-year veteran SS Roman Harper should be able to cover him. That leaves Carolina FS Kurt Coleman to patrol centerfield, where he had a team-leading seven INTs. The Broncos made a trade for TE Vernon Davis midseason, but the former 49er has been phased out of the offense, and Davis hasn’t scored a TD since Week 1 of 2014. The Broncos also haven’t thrown a single TD to a RB this season. Carolina’s zone scheme tends to be more forgiving in the second half of games, so that will be something to watch for. Also worth noting: Manning’s only TD pass in 2012 against the Panthers went to slot WR Brandon Stokley. Manning’s TDs this season have all gone to Thomas, Sanders and Daniels. Backup WRs Jordan Norwood, Andre Caldwell, Bennie Fowler and Cody Latimer have combined for 106 receiving yards this postseason. ADVANTAGE: Panthers.

PANTHERS SPECIAL TEAMS vs. BRONCOS SPECIAL TEAMS

Denver’s special teams unit has been solid, if not spectacular, while Carolina has some vulnerabilities here. Carolina K Graham Gano missed six of his 36 field goal attempts this season, but the bigger issue were his three missed PATs this season. Denver K Brandon McManus missed five of 35 field goal attempts, with one missed PAT. Both kickers have been perfect in the postseason. Both kickers also handle kickoff duties; Denver has been solid, but the Panthers had a kickoff return allowed for a TD this season. The Panthers also had a punt return allowed for a TD. It remains to be seen whether or not either team will use their starting WRs (Ted Ginn, Emmanuel Sanders) on punt returns, but Sanders would be more likely to break one based on Carolina’s issues in coverage. ADVANTAGE: Broncos.

PANTHERS COACHING vs. BRONCOS COACHING

Carolina has the Coach of the Year in Ron Rivera, the 2nd time he’s won the award. Rivera is also 1-0 head-to-head with Gary Kubiak when both are head coaches, as Rivera’s Panthers defeated Kubiak’s Texans in 2011. However, Kubiak was the Baltimore offensive coordinator in 2014 when the Ravens put up 38 points on Rivera’s Panthers in a 38-10 Carolina loss. And while Phillips was Kubiak’s defensive coordinator in 2011, Phillips wasn’t able to coach in that 28-13 Panthers win in Houston. Phillips missed that game due to surgery, but the league’s best assistant will finally see Cam Newton this time around. Carolina offensive coordinator Mike Shula called plays for the top scoring offense despite not having a 1,000-yard WR or a 1,000-yard rusher, showing strong creativity while putting Newton in position to be responsible for nearly 75 percent of the offense. On the other end of the field, Carolina defensive coordinator Sean McDermott has been with Rivera every season, while Denver offensive coordinator Rick Dennison has worked with Kubiak each of the last six seasons in Denver, Baltimore, and Houston. There’s plenty of trust on both staffs, and they’re led by two head coaches who are Super Bowl veterans. Despite this game being the first for both Rivera and Kubiak as head coaches, Rivera won a Super Bowl as a player with the 1985 Bears, while Kubiak lost three Super Bowls as John Elway’s backup with the Broncos in the 1980s. Rivera was also the 2006 Bears defensive coordinator when Peyton Manning won his only championship in Super Bowl XLI, while Kubiak was Elway’s offensive coordinator when the Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls in the late 1990s. While the Panthers have won nine games by at least ten points, the Broncos have won 11 games by seven points or less this season.ADVANTAGE: Draw/Broncos.

INTANGIBLES

The Panthers come to Super Bowl 50 with the swag and confidence reminiscent of another 15-1 team, the 1985 Chicago Bears. That team had Ron Rivera as a backup LB and had the Super Bowl Shuffle. This team has Rivera as a head coach and has the Dab, with Newton leading the way as the Dab Daddy. But they do have health issues, with Davis and Allen (foot) playing hurt.  The Broncos have minor injury issues with T.J. Ward and Darian Stewart, and Manning’s advanced age has to be considered a factor, even though the rest helps. When these teams last met in 2012, multiple members of the Broncos made it a point to mock Newton’s Superman gesture. This time around, it may be the Dab the Broncos mock. Many of the Broncos that were embarrassed in Super Bowl 48 are still with the team. But many of them, especially on defense, were not here. Derek Wolfe, Von Miller, and Chris Harris were all injured when the Broncos were stomped out of the Meadowlands two years ago. Don’t discount the presence of Manning here. He’s the oldest player in this game, all eyes will be on him, and he has the most to gain and the most to lose. ADVANTAGE: Broncos.

BOTTOM LINE

There has never been a Super Bowl that has gone into overtime. But this one will be close throughout. The Broncos are going to hit Cam Newton early and often, though Newton is going to get a rushing TD and a TD pass to TE Greg Olsen. A hit from DeMarcus Ware on Newton in poor field position will pop a ball in the air, allowing LB Brandon Marshall to return in for a TD – teams are 12-0 in the Super Bowl when returning a pick-six for a score. Newton will throw another INT in the red zone after a Corey Brown bobble to kill another drive. C.J. Anderson will struggle mightily on the ground, but he’ll score a goal-line TD. The Panthers will have a blocked FG, but Newton will lead a game-tying drive with a FG to force OT. The Broncos offense will be held under 300 yards, with Manning taking a beating behind an overwhelmed offensive line but limiting himself to only one INT. The Panthers will get the ball first in overtime. But another hit by Ware on Newton will lead to a recovered fumble by Miller, to set up a game-winning FG for the Broncos.

PREDICTION: Broncos 20, Panthers 17 (OT).

While the focus will be on Peyton Manning’s need to retire after Super Bowl 50, Denver OLB DeMarcus Ware should put himself in position to be the game’s Most Valuable Player when it’s all over (PC: Twitter/Broncos).