The final game of the 100th NFL season is here.
Super Bowl LIV! The first Super Bowl in Miami in 10 years, Super Bowl LIV will be broadcast on FOX from Hard Rock Stadium, home of the Miami Dolphins.
The underdog: With a regular season record of 13-3, a 27-10 win in the Divisional round against the Minnesota Vikings, and a 37-20 win against the Green Bay Packers to win the NFC Championship … winner of the NFC West and making their first trip back to the Super Bowl in seven years … the San Francisco 49ers.
And the favorite: With a regular season record of 12-4, a 51-31 win in the Divisional round against the Houston Texans, and a 35-24 win against the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship … making their first Super Bowl appearance in 50 years and winner of the last four AFC West division titles … the Kansas City Chiefs.
Last year’s 49ers finished 4-12, missing the playoffs for the fifth season in a row. But their NFC-best record this season included a season sweep of last year’s NFC Champion, the Los Angeles Rams. On the flip side, the Chiefs have won 10+ games for a franchise-best five consecutive seasons, and they overcame last year’s loss in the AFC Championship. The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots lost a key game to the Chiefs this regular season, and the Patriots couldn’t make it out of the Wild Card, losing to a Tennessee Titans team that also took down the top-seed Baltimore Ravens before losing the AFC Championship in Kansas City.
I mentioned last week that the 49ers and Chiefs are tied together by five quarterbacks who started at least five games each for both franchises. The most notable of that quintet is Hall of Famer Joe Montana. 25 seasons ago, Montana’s Chiefs beat Steve Young’s 49ers in the regular season; but Montana’s career ended in the Wild Card at Miami that postseason, while Young led the 49ers to a win over the AFC Western winner San Diego Chargers in Super Bowl XXIX. That was the last Super Bowl the 49ers won.
Back to 2013. The Chiefs hired Andy Reid to be their new head coach. The 49ers lost the Super Bowl the previous season, with QB Alex Smith being replaced by QB Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco traded Smith to Kansas City for two draft picks, including Kansas City’s 2013 2nd round pick. The Chiefs had the top pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, but chose LT Eric Fisher instead of a quarterback.
The next four seasons saw the 49ers start Kaepernick, and while the 49ers made a run to the NFC Championship in 2013, San Francisco would miss the playoffs and fire their head coach at the end of the 2014, 2015 and 2016 seasons. The Chiefs made the playoffs at the end of the 2013, 2015 and 2016 seasons, while just missing out in 2014 with a 9-7 record. But the Chiefs had only one playoff win between 2013 and 2016, and they lost a home Divisional game in the 2016 postseason.
That set up the 2017 NFL Draft. The 49ers hired Kyle Shanahan as head coach and John Lynch as general manager. San Francisco had the second pick in the 2017 draft, and traded down to #3 to allow the Chicago Bears to select QB Mitchell Trubisky. The 49ers selected DE Solomon Thomas. The Chiefs wound up trading up to #10 to select QB Patrick Mahomes.
The 49ers wound up trading a 2018 second round pick to New England for QB Jimmy Garoppolo in October 2017. Smith would start the remainder of the 2017 season for the Chiefs, lose another home playoff game (a Wild Card against the Tennessee Titans), and then get traded to Washington to clear the starting job for Mahomes.
To make things even more interesting… Mahomes’ first career presesason game was against the 49ers in 2017, Shanahan’s head preseason head coaching debut; Garoppolo would tear his left ACL at Kansas City in Week 3 of 2018, a 38-27 Chiefs win; and 2014 Kansas City first round DE Dee Ford (taken 39 spots above Garoppolo) was traded to San Francisco in the 2019 offseason.
Both teams defeated the Minnesota Vikings, with Kansas City winning 26-23 in Week 9 and San Francisco winning in the postseason. The Chiefs lost to the Packers 31-24 in Week 8, while the 49ers beat the Packers 37-8 in Week 12 and again in the postseason. The Chiefs defeated the Ravens 33-28 in Week 3, but the 49ers lost 20-17 in Week 13 at Baltimore. Kansas City actually lost three of four regular season games against the AFC South, losing home games to the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans before losing at Tennessee in Week 10. The 49ers lost in overtime against the Seahawks in Week 10 and in Week 15 against the Atlanta Falcons. The 49ers and Chiefs did not lose any games by more than seven points this season.
The only first team All-Pros in this game are San Francisco TE George Kittle and Kansas City SS Tyrann Mathieu, a Pro Bowl snub. Besides Kittle, San Francisco’s Pro Bowlers include FB Kyle Juszczyk, rookie DE Nick Bosa, and CB Richard Sherman. Kansas City Pro Bowlers include Mahomes, WR Tyreek Hill, TE Travis Kelce, DE Frank Clark, DT Chris Jones, and rookie WR/return specialist Mecole Hardman.
49ERS PASS OFFENSE vs CHIEFS PASS DEFENSE
Garoppolo finished his first full season as an NFL starter with a TD-INT ratio of 27:13 and a passer rating of 102.0. His receiving corps was bolstered midseason by the acquisition of WR Emmanuel Sanders from Denver. While Garoppolo didn’t have a WR gain 1,000+ receiving yards, he did have a TE accomplish that feat, as Kittle led the team with 85 receptions and 1,053 receiving yards. Kittle figures to be the focal point of Kansas City’s pass defense. The Chiefs allowed 100 receiving yards to a TE only once this season, to Oakland TE Darren Waller in what was a 40-9 Week 13 Kansas City win. Kittle had a strong game last year in Kansas City, leading the 49ers with 79 receiving yards while catching 5-of-7 targets from Garoppolo. Juszczyk also got loose in Kansas City last year, catching a 35-yard TD on a busted coverage. Mathieu is a ballhawk in coverage, and the Chiefs will need him to be a playmaker in the middle of the field, especially since LBs Anthony Hitchens and Damien Wilson aren’t strong in coverage. Garoppolo hasn’t been asked to do much in the postseason, throwing a total of 27 passes for 208 yards across two games. Rookie WR Deebo Samuel is a physical presence with strong after-catch ability, but he and WR Kendrick Bourne combined to drop 12 passes this season. The Chiefs should keep CB Charvarius Ward on Samuel as much as possible, as Ward is a surer tackler. That would leave veteran CB Bashaud Breeland on Sanders. Juszczyk will probably get more looks in the passing game than any of San Francisco’s RBs. Kansas City FS Daniel Sorensen has been solid while filling in for injured rookie FS Juan Thornhill, and Kansas City has depth at CB in Kendall Fuller and rookie Rashad Fenton. Garoppolo is good, but Kansas City’s pass defense has been great this season, and I don’t see the 49ers hitting many big plays. ADVANTAGE: Chiefs.
49ERS RUN OFFENSE vs. CHIEFS RUN DEFENSE
The 49ers have dominated two NFC North teams in the postseason with their run game. Against the Vikings, it was mainly RB Tevin Coleman leading the backfield, with RB Raheem Mostert mixing in. In the NFC Championship, Coleman was lost for the game after his sixth rushing attempt, clearing Mostert to dominate the Packers for 220 rushing yards (second-most in an NFL postseason game ever) and four scores (third player ever to score at least four rushing TD in a postseason game). Last year in Kansas City, the 49ers were led in the rushing game by RB Matt Breida, who had 90 yards on just 10 carries. Overall, the 49ers went to Kansas City and had 178 yards and a TD for a 6.1 average, despite trailing after the opening possession. The Chiefs were a bottom-five run defense this season, and though they held their own in the AFC Championship against Tennessee RB Derrick Henry, the game flow played a major role in that. The 49ers were one of four teams to average at least 3.0 yards before contact. San Francisco’s best means of moving the ball will be on the ground. ADVANTAGE: 49ers.
49ERS OFFENSIVE LINE vs. CHIEFS PASS RUSH
The Chiefs punished Garoppolo in 2018 with four sacks, and Chris Jones was chasing Garoppolo out of the pocket when Garoppolo cut wrong off his leg leg and tore his ACL on the sideline. Jones is the best pass rusher the Chiefs have, and he comes from the interior, so that puts pressure on backup San Francisco C Ben Garland and LG Laken Tomlinson and RG Mike Person. Frank Clark talked a big game ahead of Kansas City’s matchup with Derrick Henry, and Clark showed up big for that one. Clark will be matching up with LT Joe Staley and RT Mike McGlinchey; Clark has 3.5 career sacks and 11 QB hits in eight games against the 49ers. Mathieu is often used to blitz from the secondary, as he had 2.0 sacks this season. The Chiefs don’t have much depth to the pass rush with DEs Alex Okafor and Emmanuel Ogbah on injured reserve, so DE Terrell Suggs is there to provide relief for Clark and DE Tanoh Kpassagnon. ADVANTAGE: Chiefs.
49ERS PASS RUSH vs. CHIEFS OFFENSIVE LINE
This is the most elite matchup of Super Bowl LIV. The Chiefs have made pass rushes look silly in the postseason. Out of 40 players since 2017 who have attempted at least 500 passes, Mahomes ranks fourth in lowest sack percentage, behind only Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethlisberger. (Garoppolo ranks 28th out of 40.) The 49ers have been great at rushing the passer, and the biggest difference-maker has been Bosa, who was T-8th in the NFL with 25 QB hits. Bosa and former Chief Dee Ford will see LT Eric Fisher and RT Mitchell Schwartz in what promises to be a spectacular showdown. San Francisco’s interior rush is anchored by former first round picks DE Arik Armstead and DT DeForest Buckner. Kansas City’s interior line doesn’t have the same pedigree as the tackles, but LG Andrew Wylie 1, C Austin Reiter and RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif have played together for multiple seasons. Only three teams blitzed less frequently than San Francisco, so they will rely heavily on their talented defensive line to get to Mahomes. San Francisco did bring CB K’Waun Williams on a blitz that shocked Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers and forced a fumble. ADVANTAGE: Chiefs.
49ERS RUN DEFENSE vs. CHIEFS RUN OFFENSE
Conversely, this is arguably the weakest head-to-head matchup of the Super Bowl. The 49ers aren’t good at stopping the run, and the Chiefs are rarely interested in running the football. Damien Williams leads Kansas City’s running backs, and he is a threat to score from anywhere with his size and speed; Williams had two rushing scores of more than 80 yards this season, and even caught a 62-yard TD pass this preseason against the 49ers. But Williams has only one career game with at least 20 rushing attempts, and it came last year in the playoffs against the Colts. The Chiefs rarely use sixth round rookie RB Darwin Thompson, FB Anthony Sherman doesn’t touch the football, and former Pro Bowl RB LeSean McCoy hasn’t played more than one snap since December 15. San Francisco ILB Fred Warner is the team’s leading tackler, but he also missed 17 tackles this season. Rookie OLB Dre Greenlaw is much more secure as a tackler. OLB Kwon Alexander is a wild tackler regularly, and he’s playing after recovering from a torn pectoral. The difference-maker here is Mahomes, as he is leading the Chiefs in rushing this postseason. ADVANTAGE: Chiefs.
49ERS PASS DEFENSE vs. CHIEFS PASS OFFENSE
This is another strength against strength. Only five teams saw fewer pass attempts than the 49ers, and the 49ers led the league in fewest yards allowed per attempt through the air. Teams didn’t/couldn’t test San Francisco deep. The Chiefs trailed only the 49ers in getting yards after the catch per pass attempt this season. But the 49ers were dead last in air yards attempted, while the Chiefs ranked ninth. Kansas City will attack at all three levels. Hill is a deep threat, and whether it is San Francisco CB Emmanuel Mosley or the embattled Ahkello Witherspoon, Hill will demand over the top help from FS Jimmie Ward. Last season against the 49ers, Hill beat triple coverage that included Ward to come down with a 42-yard pass. Sherman usually locks down the left side of the field, and it will be interesting to see how involved WR Sammy Watkins will be. Watkins did get moved around last year against the 49ers, and he did score away from Sherman’s coverage. Sherman intercepted both Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins and Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers this postseason. Mahomes is not afraid to target WRs Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson down the field; expect Mahomes to take multiple deep shots to the right. TE Travis Kelce is the most consistent receiver for the Chiefs, and it will be interesting to see how often he matches up with San Francisco SS Jaquiski Tartt, CB K’Waun Williams, and the linebackers. Kelce had a game-high 114 receiving yards while catching 8-of-10 targets last year against the 49ers. ADVANTAGE: Chiefs.
49ERS SPECIAL TEAMS vs. CHIEFS SPECIAL TEAMS
San Francisco K Robbie Gould made his first field goal of at least 50 yards in the NFC Championship after missing all four of those attempts in the regular season. Gould has never missed a kick in the playoffs, scoring 66 total points; that includes a 44-yard field goal in Chicago’s Super Bowl XLI loss to the Colts in Miami. Kansas City K Harrison Butker led the NFL with 147 points this season and made a league-high 34 field goals, winning 2019 AFC Special Teams Player of the Month honors. Butker did miss a PAT this postseason, but he made 3-of-6 FGs of 50+ yards this season and 89.5% of his field goal attempts overall. San Francisco has a rookie P in fourth-rounder Mitch Wishnowsky, while Kansas City P Dustin Colquitt was drafted in 2005 by the Chiefs. Wishnowsky also handles kickoff duties for San Francisco. The 49ers have an average return specialist in WR Richie James Jr. But Kansas City has a Pro Bowler in Hardman, who scored on a 104-yard kickoff return in Week 17 against the Chargers. ADVANTAGE: Chiefs.
49ERS COACHING vs. CHIEFS COACHING
These two coaching staffs have seen each other each of the last three seasons. It’s just that two of the matchups were in the preseason. Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers went to Arrowhead Stadium and beat Andy Reid’s Chiefs in the 2017 and 2019 preseasons, with the 2019 matchup coming in Week 3. But in the regular season, Reid has gotten the best of Shanahan in the last three matchups. In 2018, the Chiefs scored touchdowns on their first five possessions to basically make the second half of their matchup with the 49ers irrelevant. Unfortunately for the 49ers, the second half of the 2018 matchup was relevant due to Garoppolo’s season-ending injury in the fourth quarter. In 2016, Shanahan was the offensive coordinator of the Falcons when Atlanta hosted Reid’s Chiefs. The Falcons scored a go-ahead TD to WR Aldrick Robinson with 4:32 left in the game, but QB Matt Ryan’s ensuing two-point conversion attempt was returned for a go-ahead Chiefs score by FS Eric Berry, who had returned an INT for a TD earlier in the game. The Chiefs won that contest 29-28. And in 2013, Reid’s first season as Kansas City head coach, the Chiefs won in Washington 45-10; that was Shanahan’s last season as offensive coordinator in Washington with his father, Mike, as head coach. The last time Kyle Shanahan was a part of a team that beat Andy Reid as head coach was Reid’s last year in Philadelphia, where the 2012 Eagles were swept by Washington. This is the first Super Bowl matchup between offensive-minded head coaches since Sean Payton’s Saints defeated Jim Caldwell’s Colts ten years ago. Both defensive coordinators in this game have Super Bowl rings, as Kansas City DC Steve Spagnuolo was the New York Giants DC in 2007 when they upset the undefeated Patriots, while San Francisco DC Robert Saleh was on Pete Carroll’s staff in 2013 when the Seahawks blew out the Broncos. Kansas City offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy played for the Chargers in their Super Bowl loss to the 49ers 25 years ago at Miami. Both head coaches will be trying to overcome bad Super Bowl memories. Shanahan was Atlanta’s offensive coordinator when they lost in overtime after holding a 28-3 lead over the Patriots. And Reid lost his only Super Bowl as head coach to the Patriots 15 years ago. Reid does have a Super Bowl ring as part of the 1996 Packers staff, while Shanahan will be trying to join his father as the only father-son duo to win Super Bowls; Shanahan won two with the Broncos, including one over a 1997 Packers team that Reid was a quarterbacks coach for. ADVANTAGE: Chiefs.
INTANGIBLES
I can’t help but think about all the trash talking Frank Clark has done, taunting Dee Ford for his costly offsides penalty in the 2018 AFC Championship. That’s the kind of thing that tests karma. Also testing karma – how the Chiefs handled Tyreek Hill’s domestic incident last offseason. Ultimately, Hill was allowed to rejoin the team and was not disciplined by the NFL. In more conventional concerns, the 49ers have injuries to RB Tevin Coleman and Ford that bear watching, while Kansas City DT Chris Jones is less than full strength. Garoppolo definitely has the revenge factor in place due to his knee injury, but Mahomes also has the revenge factor because the 49ers could have drafted him instead of backup DE Solomon Thomas. While the Chiefs have Suggs, a player who has beaten the 49ers in a Super Bowl before, the 49ers have more players with Super Bowl experience (Coleman, Juszczyk, Sanders, Staley, Garland, Sherman, Gould). I also went back and looked at San Francisco’s loss to the Chiefs last season, specifically the five Kansas City TD drives to start the game:
- Kansas City faced 3rd and 15 at the SF 33 on their opening drive of the game. Mahomes found RB Spencer Ware on a screen that gained 14 yards. The Chiefs elected to go for it on fourth down, and Mahomes converted on the ground. The Chiefs scored two plays later.
- Similar situation. Kansas City faced 3rd and 16 at the SF 32. The 49ers had already been penalized twice on the drive, leading to Kansas City first downs. Mahomes took a shot to the end zone in a pass that was nowhere near WR Chris Conley; but Conley drew pass interference in the end zone as CB K’Waun Williams was penalized. The Chiefs scored on the next play.
- Kansas City had 3rd and goal at the SF 4. Mahomes retreated about 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage, first going left outside of Fisher’s block of DE Cassius Marsh, then sprinting right before hitting Conley on a frozen rope of a TD pass.
- First play of the next drive, Watkins takes an end around nine yards to the left before fumbling. Fortunately for the Chiefs, Hill recovers the loose ball. Seven plays later, Mahomes throws another TD.
- 3rd and 9 for the Chiefs at their own 33. Mahomes is hit by 49ers DT Ronald Blair, and the pass intended for Travis Kelce is hauled in with one hand despite coverage from OLB Reuben Foster. Six plays later, Mahomes throws his third TD pass to give the Chiefs a 35-7 lead.
Needless to say, the ball bounced the right way for the Chiefs in their home stadium, while the 49ers succumbed under the weight of 147 yards in penalties, by far their worst under Shanahan. Perhaps the 49ers are more fortunate this time around.
ADVANTAGE: 49ers.
BOTTOM LINE
The 49ers haven’t trailed this postseason, while the Chiefs haven’t led at any point in the first quarter this postseason. I would expect the Chiefs to get off to a faster start, perhaps with a big play score from Mahomes to Hardman. I believe the San Francisco run game will break off huge chunks of yards, but Kansas City will force Garoppolo into more turnovers than touchdowns. I also expect Kansas City RB Damien Williams to have his best game of the playoffs and for the Chiefs to make multiple field goals. Mahomes will have no more than one turnover while utilizing Kelce to move the offense, securing Super Bowl MVP.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 30, 49ers 17.
