The Super Bowl XLVIII Gameplan

Finally … THE HEAT IS OVER!

Super Bowl 48 is upon us, pitting the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks against the AFC Champion Denver Broncos at MetLife Stadium. The Broncos went 13-3 during the regular season, earning the AFC West title and home field throughout the AFC playoffs. They defeated the San Diego Chargers in the AFC Divisional, and the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship. The Hypothesis Report said Denver would go 14-2 and get to the Super Bowl.

The Seattle Seahawks also went 13-3 during the regular season, earning the NFC West title and home field throughout the NFC playoffs. They defeated the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Divisional, and their division rival San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship. The Hypothesis Report said Seattle would go 12-4 and get to the Super Bowl. Oh snap!

The Broncos and Seahawks used to share a spot in the AFC Western division until 2002, when the Texans realignment moved the Seahawks from the AFC to the NFC. Denver and Seattle will face each other next season, but the teams look different than the last time the two teams faced off, in 2010. The Broncos defeated the Seahawks in Colorado in that Week 2 2010 game 31-14, getting 307 passing yards and two TDs from then-QB Kyle Orton. The 2010 Broncos would finish 4-12, the most losses in franchise history, and fire head coach Josh McDaniels during the season. The 2010 Seahawks would win the worst division of all-time with a 7-9 record, but would shock the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints before going quietly to the Chicago Bears.

The Seahawks hired former USC head coach Pete Carroll after Jim Mora went 5-11 in 2009, his only season after being Mike Holmgren’s hand-picked successor. Carroll, the former head coach of the New York Jets (1994) and New England Patriots (1997-1999), has helped give the Seahawks an identity on defense with unorthodox fronts, aggressive cornerbacks, and special safeties. The Seahawks went only 15-19 in Carroll’s first two seasons, including playoffs. But since drafting QB Russell Wilson in the third round of the 2011 Draft, the Seahawks have gone 27-9, including playoffs.

Former Carolina Panthers head coach John Fox faced Carroll’s Seahawks in December 2010, a 31-14 win for the Seahawks over the Panthers. Fox’s 2010 Panthers went 2-14, and Fox was let go. The Broncos, with a front office led by Hall-of-Fame QB John Elway, hired Fox in 2011. The 2011 Broncos were led by 2010 first-round pick QB Tim Tebow. Elway and Fox didn’t want Tebow to have success, but the team started 1-4 with Orton at QB in 2011. Enter Tebow, who helped Denver finish 8-8, backing into a division title. Denver would then shock the defending AFC champion Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs before going quietly to the eventual AFC champion New England Patriots. The signing of former Indianapolis Colts QB Peyton Manning in 2012 allowed the Broncos to trade Tebow to the Jets, while Elway drafted QB Brock Osweiler in the second round of the 2012 NFL Draft, one round over Wilson. With Manning, the Broncos have gone 28-7, including playoffs.

Both teams lost to the Indianapolis Colts during the regular season – it was the first of three losses for both teams. Both teams went into MetLife Stadium to face the New York Giants this season. The Broncos hung 41 points on New York in a win, while the Seahawks shut the Giants out in a win. It was a perfect epitome of how the two teams won in 2013. The Broncos were led by the best offense in NFL history (NFL-record 606 points), as well as the best quarterbacking season by an NFL passer (Peyton Manning: NFL-record 55 TDs, 5,477 yards). The Seahawks had the best defense in the NFL, allowing only 231 points and finishing with the best pass defense of the past four years, along with leading the NFL in takeaways.

The two teams did play a Week 2 preseason game, a 40-10 smackdown win by the Seahawks over the Broncos that pissed John Elway off.  The last time the Seahawks were in the Super Bowl, they were upset by the sixth seed Pittsburgh Steelers in 2005-2006. The last time Manning started a Super Bowl, his 2009-2010 Colts were upset by the New Orleans Saints.

SEAHAWKS PASS OFFENSE vs. BRONCOS PASS DEFENSE

Wilson is a Pro Bowl QB, and after knocking off a QB he looks up to in Saints QB Drew Brees, he looks to do what Brees did in the Super Bowl: outduel Peyton Manning. The Seahawks are trying to become the lowest-ranked pass offense to win a Super Bowl, as I mentioned in the Hypothesis: Observed. But they are going up against a Broncos pass defense that gives up tons of yards and allowed 29 TDs. The Seahawks don’t let Wilson rip it – the Seahawks are about as ground-and-pound as you can get in today’s NFL, which is the right approach when you peep the Seahawks receiving corps of WRs Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, and X-Factor Percy Harvin, as well as TEs Zach Miller and rookie Luke Willson. Harvin, who the Seahawks gave up a first-round pick to acquire from Minnesota, missed all of the preseason and all but one regular season game due to hip surgery. He was also knocked out of the Divisional playoffs. However, in his limited time, Harvin was used in a variety of ways (down the field, jet-sweeps). Harvin’s career-high of 156 yards and two TDs also came against Fox’s Broncos in 2011. The Broncos have lost starting CB Chris Harris and FS Rahim Moore to injury, giving them a starting secondary of FS Mike Adams, SS Duke Ihenacho, and CBs Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Champ Bailey. The Broncos are a little thin depth-wise, with Kayvon Webster, Tony Carter, and Quentin Jammer figuring to get snaps. Fox, a former DB coach, has seen his defense limit the impact of Philip Rivers and Tom Brady. The Seahawks aren’t going to ask more of Wilson than necessary. ADVANTAGE: Draw/Broncos.

SEAHAWKS RUN OFFENSE vs. BRONCOS RUN DEFENSE

The Broncos have done a hearty job of stopping the run, with WLB Danny Trevathan and DT Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton showing up big against the run games of the Chargers and Patriots. However, the Broncos are susceptible to allowing TDs on the ground (15 allowed throughout the season), and the Seahawks are bringing the toughest runner to bring down to the Super Bowl, RB Marshawn Lynch. Lynch is healthy and will have a movement-based blocking scheme ahead of him, as well as a movement-based QB in WIlson to give the aggressive Denver front something to think about. Really, that is the biggest challenge for the Denver defense. Shutting down an immobile Chargers backfield is one thing. Shutting down the Patriots run game was a step. But there is a layer of complexity to the Seattle run game that Denver hasn’t really seen since Andrew Luck ran all over them – and LBs Paris Lenon and Nate Irving don’t have the athletic ability of benched Wesley Woodyard and injured Von Miller. The Seahawks have some depth with RB Robert Turbin, as well as blockers in FB Michael Robinson and rookie Derrick Coleman. ADVANTAGE: Seahawks.

SEAHAWKS OFFENSIVE LINE vs. BRONCOS PASS RUSH

The Seahawks have some talent in Pro Bowlers LT Russell Okung (new Hall-of-Famer Walter Jones’ heir apparent) and C Max Unger. However, Wilson is a “sack” QB, not a “pick” QB. The Broncos have a lot of size up front in Knighton (who beat Patriots Pro Bowl LG Logan Mankins for a fourth-down sack in the AFC Championship) and first-round rookie DT Sylvester Williams. DE Shaun Phillips is the best pass rusher the Broncos have, while DEs Robert Ayers and Jeremy Mincey provide relief behind DE Malik Jackson. Denver doesn’t have as much depth, as starters DE Derek Wolfe and DT Kevin Vickerson were lost for the season. Wilson’s tendency to not pull the trigger or turn the ball over means he will scramble around, and his lack of size keeps him from hanging in the pocket. Denver will put the Seahawks in desirable late-down situations. ADVANTAGE: Draw/Broncos.

SEAHAWKS PASS RUSH vs. BRONCOS OFFENSIVE LINE

The Seahawks have a deep and varied defensive line, but Peyton Manning has always been a “pick” QB, not a “sack” QB. Touching Peyton Manning is just about impossible, as he took only 18 sacks despite throwing 659 passes with an offensive line that lost LT Ryan Clady to IR and broke in a new C in Manny Ramirez. While Seattle has deep talent, they have to be careful not to be caught in the wrong personnel group, as starters DE Red Bryant, DT Brandon Mebane, DT Tony McDaniel, and DE Chris Clemons aren’t the best pass rushers on the team. DE Cliff Avril and DT Michael Bennett will have a big role in getting to Manning, and they rush primarily from the defensive left side. That will challenge Denver RT Orlando Franklin and Pro Bowl RG Louis Vasquez, but not that much. Denver’s starting LG Zane Beadles may be the weak link, but again, sacks are a rare occurrence for the Denver offense. The Seahawks aren’t going to go all out to get to Manning’s body … they want the football. ADVANTAGE: Broncos.

SEAHAWKS RUN DEFENSE vs. BRONCOS RUN OFFENSE

Denver got an unexpected breakthrough year from 2009 first-round pick RB Knowshon Moreno. Much like fellow Bulldog Garrison Hearst, Moreno broke out in year 5, scoring more rushing TDs this season (10) than he did in the previous three seasons combined (9). The Seahawks are led in the middle by ILB Bobby Wagner, a playmaker flanked by OLBs K.J. Wright and Bruce Irvin. Seattle has been hit-or-miss against the run. They let Saints RBs Khiry Robinson and Mark Ingram combine for over 100 yards on 23 carries, but they completely shut down 49ers RB Frank Gore in the NFC Championship (14 yards on 11 carries). The Broncos are fairly deep in the backfield, with second-round rookie RB Montee Ball capable of relieving Moreno. If Seattle is to win this game, they need to restrict Moreno’s impact. ADVANTAGE: Draw/Seahawks.

SEAHAWKS PASS DEFENSE vs. BRONCOS PASS OFFENSE

Here it is: the matchup of the Super Bowl. The Seahawks are going to get called for a ton of coverage penalties, and Manning will hit a couple of TDs. Between WRs Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, and TE Julius Thomas, Seattle will have to deal with size, speed, athleticism, and precise routes. CB Richard Sherman will be on his left island, which means plenty of Decker. The Seahawks will have CB Byron Maxwell on Demaryius Thomas, which will draw plenty of FS Earl Thomas’ attention. The Seahawks love to hit TEs and slot WRs, as 49ers TE Vernon Davis and former Patriot Welker can attest to. SS Kam Chancellor is the main hammer in a throwback secondary with a clear-cut center fielder. Manning will be able to move the ball. It will be tougher to simply dominate the matchup though. Seattle is going to go down hitting. Here is a good place to note that when Brady set the TD passing record in 2007, his team was shut down in the Super Bowl by the New York Giants. And when Dan Marino set the yardage and TD pass record in 1984, his Miami Dolphins were shut down by the San Francisco 49ers defense. ADVANTAGE: Draw/Broncos.

SEAHAWKS SPECIAL TEAMS vs. BRONCOS SPECIAL TEAMS

The impact of Percy Harvin is touch-and-go offensively, but he is one of the best kickoff returners in the NFL, and I believe that he’ll have at least game-changing return. Denver allowed two return touchdowns, one on kickoffs and one on punts, where the Seahawks will have Golden Tate. The Broncos have decent return men, whether they go with the electric Trindon Holliday or receivers Welker or Decker. However, the Broncos have lost games this year due to the shaky handles of Holliday and Welker. Broncos K Matt Prater is a Pro Bowler, and his leg is good enough outside of Mile High. Seahawks K Steven Hauschka doesn’t have a great leg, but is very accurate. Both Seahawks P Jon Ryan and Broncos P Britton Colquitt are strong performers, but the Seahawks nearly set a record for punt coverage this season, allowing only 82 yards all season. ADVANTAGE: Seahawks.

SEAHAWKS COACHING vs. BRONCOS COACHING

Carroll and Fox have only met the one time in 2010 and this preseason. Fox coached the Panthers to a Super Bowl loss ten years ago, while Carroll won a National Championship with USC. Both Fox and Carroll are former DB coaches, with front seven defensive coordinators in Broncos DC Jack Del Rio and Seahawks DC Dan Quinn. Del Rio helped lead the Broncos during Fox’s medical leave. Adam Gase is in his first year as Denver’s offensive coordinator, while Darrell Bevell is in his third year as Seattle’s offensive coordinator. Both coaches have done a solid job with their teams. If I had to put a tiebreaker in, it would be Bevell’s ability to prepare his versatile group against Del Rio’s thinned-out unit. ADVANTAGE: Draw/Seahawks.

SEAHAWKS INTANGIBLES vs. BRONCOS INTANGIBLES

As mentioned throughout, the Broncos aren’t exactly at full strength, especially defensively. The Seahawks are missing WR Sidney Rice to injury and CB Brandon Browner to suspension. But they are getting Harvin back for the only game that matters. Wright’s return to the Seattle defense is nice, but they also know that LB Malcolm Smith can step in and get the job done. The media loves Manning, and sides were taken with Sherman’s rant and Lynch’s silent treatment. The weather was a factor here too. While it won’t be too bad, Denver is still playing away from their Mile High air and won’t get to be in a warm territory, or a domed one. Seattle won’t have the 12th Man and will be playing in Peyton Manning’s brother’s stadium. Seattle also have no players that have appeared in a Super Bowl. But that means that they don’t have any players that have lost one either. ADVANTAGE: Seahawks.

BOTTOM LINE

I don’t like to pick against Peyton Manning. I don’t like to pick against passers on a hot streak. I think Denver scores more often than Seattle. But I think Seattle gets multiple TDs from Lynch, gets a TD from Wilson, and makes all the little plays, like recovering fumbles. I had Seattle over Denver since Labor Day. I won’t go against them now.

PREDICTION: Seahawks 24, Broncos 23.