2013 NBA Playoffs: The Bandwagon Report

We have come to the end of the 2012-2013 NBA season, one marked as much by who was disappointing us as who was actually playing well. A season that hopefully won’t be remembered for the litany of serious injuries wiping out most of the NBA teams.  Any way you look at it, the best postseason in sports (and the longest) is upon us, and the NetworksUnited brings to you fine folks the Bandwagon Report.

Last year’s edition of the Bandwagon Report had to be supplemented by this ACL Memorial, since there were a lot of people ready to get their asterisks out once Derrick Rose popped a ligament.  This is also the time of the year where we chuck deuces to the 14 lottery teams (Jazz, Mavericks, 76ers, Raptors, Trail Blazers, Timberwolves, Pistons, Wizards, Kings, Hornets, Suns, Cavaliers, Bobcats, Magic).  I don’t prefer to predict the NBA postseason; I save the predictions for the Lightweight Report. Speaking of the Lightweight Report, I had 13 out of 16 playoff teams, which isn’t great, but it’s not terrible either. You can pretty much tell who will be a playoff team in the NBA, and the three that I overrated (Timberwolves, Mavericks, 76ers) all had unexpected injuries to big men who were expected to lead them to the Land of Opportunity.

Ouch. Well, the playoff picture was quite simple to set up. The top six teams in the Western Conference from last season all secured berths, while the Jazz and Mavericks (last two teams in last year) were the last two teams out this year. They were replaced by two teams (Warriors, Rockets) led by two guards from the 2009 NBA Draft who signed big extensions on Halloween and proceeded to break all the way out. (Sorry Memphis, Sorry Minnesota.)  In the (L)Eastern Conference, the two teams in the East that participated in the Dwightmare trade (Magic and 76ers) missed the postseason this time around. For Orlando, that was expected, and they sunk to the depths of the NBA while the Nets (literally) bought a playoff spot. For the 76ers, it was not expected for them to miss the playoffs, and the last team into the postseason last year swapped places this year with the Bucks, the last team out of the playoffs last season.

April Madness!

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 – Oklahoma City Thunder (12-4, 13-3, 11-5, 11-5, 12-4, +1): This Thunder team was not supposed to be this good. They traded the Sixth Man of the Year, and they got better.  Only three teams turned the ball over more than OKC this season, and they were still the best offense in the NBA. Defensively, the Thunder were a top-five unit for the first time since 1996, allowing a conference-best 42.5% from the field. SF Kevin Durant finally had more assists than turnovers while leading the league in total points and shooting a 50-40-90. Durant also blocked a career-high 105 shots and swiped a career-high 116 steals, as he was the only player in the NBA this past season to go over 100 in both defensive stats. By his side is polarizing PG Russell Westbrook, who in my book is the most dynamic point guard in the NBA. Westbrook gets to the stripe more than any other PG, and his aggressive style allows KD to maintain his efficiency. And I should mention that the Thunder have the NBA’s leading shot blocker in PF Serge Ibaka, who also stepped his offensive game up (13.3 points a game on 57% from the field, while adding three-point range).  Starting SG Thabo Sefolosha was asked to do more, and he responded by making over 100 3s. And it’s not like SG Kevin Martin was a bust off the bench this season, especially since he stayed healthy. If this bandwagon isn’t full yet, it should be. It only takes one (well, maybe two) Heat-related catastrophes for the Thunder to become the favorites to win the NBA title this season, even with head coach Scott Brooks giving C Kendrick Perkins and SG Derek Fisher significant minutes for reasons only he knows.

#8 – Houston Rockets (8-8, 10-6, 7-9, 9-7, 11-5, +0): Many folks sound excited about SG James Harden facing off against his old team in the postseason.  Whether the rest of his team is up for it is anyone’s guess, but the Rockets’ bandwagon probably lost some weight once they failed to secure the 7th seed. Harden bullied defenders this year, shooting more free throws (792) than anyone in the NBA and more than any guard in five years. Harden’s liable to get hurt one year throwing his beard into the trees, but enjoy it while you can. They’re an average team defensively, which isn’t a huge regular season problem with the way they play (RE: FAST). However, no team that has led the league in pace has ever won an NBA title, and the Rockets couple their adequate defense with careless ballhandling, leading the league in turnovers (Harden, PG Jeremy Lin, and C Omer Asik combined to average 9 turnovers a night). The Rockets supplement their breakneck pace by shooting threes like they’re the Dream Rockets of the mid-90s, and they have three players (Harden and SFs Chandler Parsons and Carlos Delfino) who made at least 150 threes. Ultimately, they have a hole at PF despite having a surplus of recent first-round picks at the position, and they’re the youngest team in the NBA playoffs. There is room on the bandwagon, though that might be for those looking to make an investment in the future.

#4 – Los Angeles Clippers (10-6, 15-1, 9-7, 10-6, 10-6, +2): The Clip Show won 17 games in a row to close out 2012, swept that other team they share a building with, won a franchise record 56 games, and finally secured their first division title in 43 seasons as an NBA franchise. A big reason for the improvement was the defense, a top-ten unit despite their refusal to defend the 3. The Clippers led the league in steals (led by PG Chris Paul’s 169), and replaced defenseless guards Mo Williams, Nick Young, and Randy Foye with SG Chauncey Billups (not much better), Willie Green (ditto), and Jamal Crawford (strike three).  Yes, SF Matt Barnes has been the key wing addition that has helped improve the Clippers defense. Meanwhile, PF Blake Griffin and C DeAndre Jordan eschew rebounds for break opportunities, which earns them as much criticism as they earn easy buckets and highlights. As much handwringing there is about the Clippers’ offense, they have three players who made more than 100 3s (Crawford, Barnes, and SF Caron Butler), and Paul is still the steadiest ballhandler in the league (9.7 assists per game, 2.3 TOs). This bandwagon is rocky because the narrative on the Clippers’ offense, defense, stars, starters, bench, and head coach are such that they are supposed to lose in every round of the playoffs. If you think they can get hot from outside and that Griffin will get himself to the line, they’re a good bandwagon to ride.

#5 – Memphis Grizzlies (13-3, 9-7, 8-8, 14-2, 10-6, +2): Memphis spiked once the team figured out how to play without talented, yet inefficient SF Rudy Gay. While the Grizzlies have come a long way since their Vancouver days, they still have but one playoff series win in franchise history, and head coach Lionel Hollins is a coaching free agent at the end of the year. The pressure is on in the Memphis locker room. The good thing is that the Grizzlies are coming off their most successful season in franchise history, while playing the best defense in the NBA this side of Indiana. C Marc Gasol is the best player on this team, leading the team with 139 blocks and leading all Cs with 318 assists to go with his efficient scoring and solid rebounding. PF Zach Randolph is an All-Star who averaged another double-double, although he looked like a left-handed Carlos Boozer for most of the season offensively. PG Mike Conley and SG Tony Allen have great swipe games (both had more than 100 steals), and while SF Tayshaun Prince isn’t a significantly better defender than Rudy Gay, he doesn’t distract the offense. Unfortunately, that’s why the Grizzlies bandwagon has a lot of room right now. Memphis doesn’t shoot many threes outside of Conley and SG Jerryd Bayless, no one gets to the line with any consistency (especially on the wing), and there is a real concern about how dangerous Randolph can be. Two years ago, Randolph went off for at least 20 points in 41 games. He’s only been able to go over 20 points 16 times in the last two seasons combined, including zero times in the 2012 postseason.

#2 – San Antonio Spurs (13-3, 11-5, 13-3, 12-4, 9-7, +0): The last time the Spurs entered the playoffs on a three-game losing streak, they won the 2007 NBA title. Of course, that was also the last time the Spurs’ defense was as good as it was this past season. PF Tim Duncan should be the DPOY. Duncan blocked 183 shots, while committing only 117 fouls. No player has ever committed fewer fouls while blocking at least 140 shots in a season. Duncan turns 37 next week, and the Spurs have never won a championship in a season where Duncan averaged fewer than 20 points per game. Duncan “only” put up 17.8 per game in 2012-2013. That means the Spurs, also a top-ten offense, rely on PG Tony Parker’s playmaking and long range bombers like SG Danny Green (177 3s). While SG Manu Ginobili’s sun is setting, SF Kawhi Leonard is set to emerge (prompting head coach Gregg Popovich to pull the plug on SF Stephen Jackson). San Antonio also got a very efficient season out of C Tiago Splitter. The Spurs have a light bandwagon because, well, we’ve come to expect them to lose at this point. They’re a great regular season team, but they have had their season ended by five different teams the last five years (Lakers, Mavericks, Suns, Grizzlies, Thunder). The Spurs bandwagon will pick up steam if they get out of the Quarterfinals, but their shaky health and play down the stretch makes that far from a certainty.  That, and they added SF Tracy McGrady (although signing him and pledging not to play him in the first round was a sneaky good move).

#7 – Los Angeles Lakers (8-8, 7-9, 7-9, 11-5, 10-6, +2): This season’s Lakers have had their bandwagon in and out of the ship all year. As you can see from the split, the Lakers were never a bad team, just a dysfunctional, inconsistent, and severely overrated one for most of the season. Once the trade deadline passed and the Lakers found themselves deep under .500, they focused up and slid into the postseason. SG Kobe Bryant is out with an Achilles tear, which robs the Lakers of their best shotmaker, and aging PG Steve Nash is surely missing the Phoenix medical staff. Two future HOFers down, two future HOFers left. Head coach Mike D’Antoni has always enhanced the play of his PGs (beneficiary: PG Steve Blake), while he finally figured out that PF Pau Gasol is a serious mismatch alongside C Dwight Howard.  The Lakers will miss Bryant’s ability to get to the line, but shouldn’t miss his long cold streaks from deep and generously selective defense. Of course, only the Magic forced fewer turnovers of any team this past season, and the Lakers have the worst defense of any playoff team this season. The Lakers bandwagon probably filled up with their playoff push, but this year’s Lakers team offers more to the average bandwagon fan since it is the first postseason the Lakers participate in without Kobe Bryant since 1996.

#3 – Denver Nuggets (8-8, 9-7, 13-3, 12-4, 13-3, +2): So, you can wait on the Lakers season, or you can pick from yet another Western Conference team to play the best they ever had in the NBA. The Nuggets (aka Team anti-Carmelo) are the only former ABA team not to have ever won a Conference title, and so bandwagon fans everywhere should take note of the fact that this Nuggets team is the best NBA team Denver has ever had. The Nuggets won a franchise record 57 games, they haven’t lost at home in three months, and they did it without an All-Star, a dominant scorer, or any regard for the rim. Like Houston, Denver runs the floor up and down. Unlike the Rockets, they value possessions, grabbing a hold of a lot of offensive rebounds from PF Kenneth Faried and Cs Kosta Koufos and JaVale McGee. PG Ty Lawson is the best playmaker on a team full of superb playmakers (SF Andre Iguodala, PG Andre Miller), while SG Corey Brewer and SF Wilson Chandler have proven to be versatile swingmen. SF Danilo Gallinari tore his ACL, but head coach George Karl dialed up first-round rookie SG Evan Fournier and it’s been solid since. Perhaps the only concerns are how many poor free throw shooters the team has, the ability of Lawson and Faried to stay healthy (especially since Lawson needs to get to the line more this postseason without Gallinari), and the fact that the Nuggets look to run too early sometimes, allowing a ton of offensive rebounds in the process.

#6 – Golden State Warriors (10-6, 12-4, 8-8, 5-11, 10-6, +2): The Warriors made the playoffs for the first time in 26 years with a head coach not named Don Nelson!  PG Steph Curry established himself as the premier shooter in the NBA, setting the record for most threes in a season (272) while shooting 53 less threes than Ray Allen when he broke the record in 2006. As if that wasn’t enough, SG Klay Thompson hit 211 threes himself. That means that Curry and Thompson were a team by themselves, they would have hit more threes than five entire teams. Combine that with the Warriors’ first All-Star in 16 years (PF David Lee, who led all double-digit rebounders in scoring), a talented rookie in SF Harrison “Captain Crunch” Barnes, a real C in Andrew Bogut, and major bench contributors in PG Jarrett Jack and PF Carl Landry, and there’s a lot to like about Golden State University. The Warriors even played some defense! Head coach Mark Jackson had the Warriors playing defense like it was the 1970s, when Al Attles consistently had Rick Barry’s team defending. The concerns about the Warriors bandwagon are that they shoot too many jumpers, which limits their free throw opportunities, they turn the ball over a bit too much, they don’t earn a lot of extra possessions, and their bench doesn’t offer much defensively. But damn, this team is always fun to watch, and now they’re actually good. A good bandwagon to be on as long as Steph Curry’s ankles continue to better luck than Andrew Bogut’s.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 – Miami Heat (12-4, 11-5, 11-5, 16-0, 14-2, +2): I was waiting for the defending champs to get their defense into top-ten status all season; only two teams have won the last 40 NBA titles while being anything less than a top-ten defense. Both of those teams were defending champions: the 1995 Rockets and the 2001 Lakers, and both had played elite defense the season before and smoked through the postseason. Well, the Heat had a season highlighted by a 27-game winning streak that ultimately gave them the undisputed best record in the NBA, the best season in franchise history, another MVP award for SF LeBron James, and the all-important top-ten defense rating (9th, highlighted by James, SG Dwyane Wade, and PG Mario Chalmers swiping more than 100 steals each). C Chris Bosh has looked like Carlton Banks trying to defend the perimeter, and he gets ripped for averaging less than 7 rebounds a game, but we know what he’s about come playoff time defensively. SG Ray Allen is one of four players who hit more than 100 3s and shot at least 40% from distance (James, Chalmers, and SF Shane Battier are the others), and the floor spacing has allowed James, Wade, Bosh to all set career highs in FG%. Of course, before you jump on the bandwagon, keep in mind that the last team King James played on that won 66 games didn’t make it out of the East. Besides that, good luck squeezing onto the Heat bandwagon.

#8 – Milwaukee Bucks (8-8, 8-8, 9-7, 7-9, 5-11, +1): As you can see, the Bucks didn’t get better after they traded for SG J.J. Redick. They have saved their worst basketball for the end of the season, as Redick barely shot better from downtown in Milwaukee (32% in 28 games) as SG Monta Ellis (29% in 82 games). Ellis and PG Brandon Jennings can be dynamic scorers, but both are woefully inefficient shooters considering they take 33 shots a night. If you want a reason to get on their bandwagon though, I’ll give you two. C Larry Sanders is both a DPOY and MIP candidate, nearly averaging a double-double while blocking more than 200 shots. And the 37-45 Atlanta Hawks of 2008 pushed the 66-16 Boston Celtics to an ugly 7-game first round series. The Celtics eventually won that series and the title, but that’s why the games are played! Of course, the Hawks came into the postseason on a hot streak, while the Bucks look like they’re not feeling it.

#4 – Brooklyn Nets (11-5, 6-10, 11-5, 9-7, 10-6, +2): Well, Jay-Z has already jumped off the Nets’ bandwagon, but that doesn’t mean you have to. Brooklyn had a top-ten offense, and C Brook Lopez was the best post scorer in the conference. Lopez also blocked 154 shots while committing only 152 fouls, fully earning his new contract. PG Deron Williams was solid after the All-Star break, playing well enough to almost make us forget that P.J. Carlesimo (he of the 3-9 postseason record) is coaching the team now because of Wlliams’ struggles with Avery Johnson. SG Joe Johnson didn’t have a bad season, but he is a third option who makes more millions of dollars this season ($19.8) than he scores points per game (16.3), while shooting a ten-year low from the field (42%).  Johnson is almost exclusively a jump-shooter now, but his wingman, SF Gerald Wallace, was one of the worst SFs in the NBA offensively.  The Nets also feature a couple of decent PFs in Reggie Evans (11.1 rebounds per game) and Andray Blatche (the only player in the NBA this season to average at least 10 points per game while playing less than 20 minutes per game).  The Nets have a lot going for them: size, depth, star power, enough shooters, and a big market. It’s a good bandwagon to hitch onto, if you can stomach their pedestrian defense in the backcourt.

#5 – Chicago Bulls (8-8, 11-5, 10-6, 6-10, 8-8, +2): The Bulls have had the rockiest bandwagon of all. They’re a big market team with stars that always get injured, which tends to overrate how good they really are. The Bulls played top-ten level defense under head coach Tom Thibodeau again, anchored by C Joakim Noah. The Bulls also ended the Heat and Knicks’ season-long winning streaks. Unfortunately, Noah’s feet were mismanaged this season, and he is no sure thing to be a plus performer this spring. Former MVP PG Derrick Rose hasn’t played since his knee injury a year ago, and at this point, there’s no reason to expect him to play great in the postseason, or even at all. For perspective, Knicks guard Iman Shumpert tore his ACL on the same day as Rose, and he has been back since January (albeit, a shell of his rookie form). Rose didn’t look great playing through injuries before tearing his ACL, which is another factor that gets lost in the legend of Rose. They’re a bit of a tease, and if you like Chicago’s bandwagon, you’re expecting them to play better than they did last postseason against Philadelphia. PG Kirk Hinrich and SF Richard Hamilton are both past their primes, yet will be asked to keep pushing. They received very good seasons from SG Jimmy Butler and PG Nate Robinson, but SF Luol Deng (43% FGs) and PF Carlos Boozer (career-low 48% FGs) are too reliant on their jumpers to seriously concern a competent playoff team right now. You’ll need insurance to ride the Bulls bandwagon.

#2 – New York Knicks (12-4, 10-6, 10-6, 6-10, 15-1, +1): The Knicks looked like a team that was going to cede the division going into March, but then PF Carmelo Anthony came back and blew up the league, securing a scoring title, New York’s first division title since 1994, and homecourt advantage for the Knicks until at least the Conference Finals. Now, the Knicks need to win their first playoff series since 2000; there’s no bandwagon like a New York bandwagon, considering that the Knicks are the Chicago Bears of the NBA when considering their low success:longevity ratio. Anthony was not shy at all about shooting 3s, attempting a career-high 6.3 per game. The last player to win a scoring title while shooting that many threes a game was Kobe Bryant in 2005-2006. While that Lakers team wasn’t a threat in the postseason, the Knicks feature another high-volume scorer in likely 6th Man of the Year SG J.R. Smith (career-high 18.1 points per game). Smith got hot at the end of the season, averaging 23.5 points per game on 49% shooting while getting to the line 7 times a game during the Knicks’ 13-game winning streak.  The Knicks lived beyond the arc this season, attempting and making the most threes (Anthony, Smith, PG Jason Kidd, and SF Steve Novak all hit over 100 3s), while committing the fewest turnovers. To top it all off, All-Star C Tyson Chandler shot 64% from the field, making the Knicks the most efficient offense outside of Miami and OKC. Of course, committing to using Anthony as a PF has its drawbacks, and you saw that defensively, as the Knicks slipped from 5th last year (with a DPOY in Chandler) to 18th this year (worst in the Eastern bracket). There are many wildcards floating around, most of them related to availability (SG Pablo Prigioni, PF Amaré Stoudemire) and effectiveness (SG Iman Shumpert). The Knicks are dangerous, but their 15-21 losing record when held under 100 points suggests that their bandwagon only goes as far as Anthony takes them. For all of Anthony’s scoring heroics, he can’t change a game defensively.

#7 – Boston Celtics (9-7, 6-10, 10-6, 10-6, 6-10, +0): The Celtics were seven games over .500, thriving without PG Rajon Rondo (torn ACL), and within a couple of games of catching the slumping New York Knicks when LeBron James took Jason Terry’s soul. The Celtics looked shellshocked after that loss to the Heat, losing five in a row and 11 of their last 16 games, including a 1-6 record against playoff teams. The Celtics are entering the playoffs playing almost as poorly as the Bucks, and while the Celtics once again have a top-ten defense anchored by C Kevin Garnett (when he’s available), this is the second straight postseason in which the Celtics have the worst offense of any playoff team. Don’t let that stop you from hopping on the Celtics bandwagon though, as their offense was actually worse last year when they were one game away from winning the East. Boston’s offense struggles primarily because the Celtics refuse to grab offensive rebounds, although the loss of Rondo has helped because the Celtics don’t lose too many possessions due to what were frequent turnovers by Rondo. As much as they need PF Jeff Green to continue stepping up (16.4 points per game post-Rondo), they absolutely need Garnett to dominate like he did in last season’s playoffs. The Celtics bandwagon is all about seeing what KG and SF Paul Pierce have left, and head coach Doc Rivers is one of only three coaches in the playoffs who have proven that they can win it all.

#3 – Indiana Pacers (8-8, 11-5, 10-6, 11-5, 9-7, +0): The Bulls didn’t have Derrick Rose, but the Pacers won the Central Division without the services of SF Danny Granger, whose knees wiped out his season (a reason why he fell out of the 2005 Draft lottery). For this, head coach Frank Vogel should be Coach of the Year, though I doubt he gets it over Miami’s Eric Spoelstra. The Pacers’ offense was inconsistent, as SF Paul George and C Roy Hibbert struggled with low shooting percentages and turnovers for most of the season. However, George and Hibbert made up for it by anchoring the best defense in the NBA, making it hard on anybody who tried to shoot (Indiana led the league in opponents’ FG% and three-point FG%). George was joined by SG Lance Stephenson and PG George Hill on the perimeter, and Hibbert’s elite-level rim protection (206 blocks, most in the East) were complemented by PF David West’s work on the boards. West also had a better season than PFs such as Zach Randolph and Carlos Boozer, thriving without Danny Buckets. The Pacers bandwagon is probably steady for now, but they need George to shoot well, especially since he doesn’t get to the free throw line in an effort to jack up a Granger-esque six threes a game.

#6 – Atlanta Hawks (11-5, 9-7, 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, +0): It seems strange to write this, but the Atlanta Hawks have been to the playoffs six years in a row, more than any team in the East other than Boston. Of course, that’s where the similarities end. The Hawks have arguably the weakest home court of any playoff team (especially if Milwaukee revives the Fear the Deer campaign), and they haven’t advanced to the Conference Finals since moving to the Eastern Conference in 1970. Maybe they can be like the 2009 Denver Nuggets? That team had suffered five straight one-and-dones before finally getting to the Conference Finals, losing to the Lakers. Perhaps the Hawks would have had a better chance at making a run if PG Lou Williams didn’t tear his ACL in January, or if C Zaza Pachulia didn’t partially tear his Achilles’ tendon. The Hawks had the tenth-best defense in the league, even though they allow a very high three-point FG% (38%, 28th in the league). The Hawks avoid sending foes to the free throw line, and are very steady inside with C Al Horford and PF Josh Smith. Unfortunately, the Hawks are another team that lacks a true go-to guy in the playoffs, though it was a good decision to pawn off Joe Johnson. PG Jeff Teague averaged 7.2 assists a game, and the Hawks have a great shooter in SF Kyle Korver (189 threes), but neither Horford or Smith get to the line enough, despite averaging more than 17 points per game each. Smith in particular still takes way too many threes, and his poor shooting in the postseason will be remembered in free agency this summer. I won’t stop you from riding the Hawks bandwagon, but it usually leads to disappointment.

That’s the Bandwagon Report for the 2013 NBA Playoffs!  Pick one, and hope it is prepared for a torn ligament, broken bone, or sketchy suspension! (Asterisks not included.)

-1SKILLZ