2012 NBA Playoffs: The Bandwagon Report

We have reached the end of what has been an incredibly long and eventful month of sports.  April started with the Kentucky Wildcats winning the Men’s Basketball D-1 title (and losing their entire lineup shortly thereafter) and the Baylor Bears winning the Women’s Basketball D-1 title (and getting in NCAA trouble shortly thereafter).  The MLB season began (although some say it began in another country … I’ve forgotten already) and the NHL playoffs is already into the second round (without the Pittsburgh Penguins … thanks for something, Philadelphia Flyers).

So now it is time for the second annual Bandwagon Report, bought to you by the good man that writes these articles here at The NU.  Like last year’s edition, 1SKILLZ is going to lay this NBA postseason out for the fans who know they want to jump on (or off) a bandwagon, but need a little help from a friend.  This is the part of the season where we say goodbye to the 14 lottery teams that didn’t make it (Rockets, Suns, Bucks, Trail Blazers, Timberwolves, Pistons, Raptors, Nets, Cavaliers, Wizards, Warriors, Kings, Hornets, Bobcats), with a special shoutout to Michael Jordan’s Charlotte Bobkittens for matching MJ’s jersey number with a losing streak to finish with the worst record in NBA history!  What’s worse for the Bobkittens is that though they finished with the worst record (by far) of any other team, the lottery still means that some other team could steal the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick in the draft from them!

This guy is still available without a draft pick!

All jokes aside (for now), I’m really excited for the NBA season, and for the most part, I nailed my preseason predictions in this year’s Lightweight Report released around Christmas.  All of the teams I thought would make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference did, which means that every team from last year’s Eastern Conference playoffs are back this year!  I missed on only one team out West, as the Portland Trail Blazers’ self-destruction midseason opened the door for the Jazz to sneak in at clinch the last playoff spot.  That means that six of last year’s Western Conference playoff teams are back in it this year, and a seventh (the Clippers) acquired the best player from a playoff team from last year that didn’t make it this year.

Things look familiar, but hold up the bandwagon for a second!

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 – San Antonio Spurs (10-6, 13-3, 11-5, 14-2, +2):  Unlike last year’s Spurs team that earned the number one seed in the West but limped into the playoffs to face a hungry Grizzlies team before losing SG Manu Ginobili to a serious injury, these Spurs are entering the playoffs all hot and rested.  PG Tony Parker was an MVP candidate, SG Manu Ginobili used his injuries in the beginning of the season, and PF Tim Duncan has been allowed to get all the old man rest he needs.  Duncan and head coach Gregg Popovich flipped the bird to fantasy owners everywhere this season by using their super depth to randomly rest guys all season, and the Spurs have won the Asterisk Championship before in 1999.  Most importantly, they’re the anti-Lakers, keeping in drama free since 1997 (the last year they missed the playoffs and got rewarded with Duncan).  If I needed a bandwagon to jump on, it would be this one right here.

#8 – Utah Jazz (10-6, 5-11, 11-5, 8-8, +2):  I’m going to give the Jazz and head coach Tyrone Corbin credit, because I didn’t give them a chance at all when they were 15-17 at midseason following an 8-20 finish to last season under Corbin/post-Deron Williams.  PF Paul Millsap and C Al Jefferson remained studs, and they and everyone else stayed healthy and on the same page for the most part this year.  Health and chemistry eliminated the Trail Blazers and Timberwolves early, while the Jazz won the games they needed to win down the stretch, unlike the Rockets and Suns.  But before you jump on the bandwagon, remember that the Jazz don’t really defend much, haven’t figured out what to do at SF, and are going up against a team that was recently eliminated by an 8 seed.  They won’t be taken lightly, but you can take them lightly until proven otherwise.

#4 – Memphis Grizzlies (10-6, 8-8, 9-7, 12-4, +2):  After the Grizzle Dizzle playoff run last year, their bandwagon was already trending up.  But now?  There may not be a hotter bandwagon amongst the mid-majors.  They’re probably the one team the Spurs wouldn’t want to see (… if the Spurs had a soul, which they clearly don’t), as this year’s edition of the Grizzlies saw them lose PF Zach Randolph instead of SF Rudy Gay … only for Randolph to come back in time to get back in game shape.  The Grizzlies finished the season hot and relatively healthy, and with the kind of size, defense, and confidence that demands you to be on the bandwagon immediately.

#5 – Los Angeles Clippers (10-6, 10-6, 7-9, 13-3, +0):  Poor Clippers.  They stole CP3, kept him, PF Blake Griffin, and almost everyone else healthy (sorry, Chauncey Billups), survived a mid-season panic, and came within a game of winning their first Pacific Division title in franchise history with a finish that was better than all but five teams in the league.  Unfortunately, one of those five teams just so happens to be the team they face in the first round, and they lost the division title AND home-court advantage with the few losses they did have to end the season.  PG Chris Paul is also not 100% after carrying the Clippers all year, especially in crunch time (Blake? Blake??), and as Derrick Rose could tell you, head coach Vinny Del Negro is only good for being ignored at this time of the year.  But don’t completely write off the Clippers, because unless Paul is completely immobile in the fourth quarter, this is still a very talented team that will be competitive throughout their postseason run.

#2 Oklahoma City Thunder (13-3, 12-4, 11-5, 10-6, +1):  Don’t look now, but the team that I picked to come out of the Western Conference is going to get embarrassed at some point this postseason.  SF Kevin Durant and PG Russell Westbrook aren’t the problem, and luckily SG James Harden’s beard protected him from most of the “erratic enthusiasm” of Metta World Peace’s elbow.  As long as those three are healthy and not having simultaneous bad shooting nights, the Thunder will be hard to eliminate.  But you can see how the Thunder haven’t really gotten better as the season has gone on, and head coach Scott Brooks’ insistence on leaving Durant/Westbrook out to dry offensively while overplaying PG Derek Fisher and C Kendrick Perkins at the expense of guys like PF Serge Ibaka will eventually come back and haunt the Thunder.  But for your bandwagon purposes, stay on, at least throughout the Western Conference playoffs.

#7 – Dallas Mavericks (9-7, 11-5, 7-9, 9-7, +0):  The Mavericks, like the Clippers, went through their own Los Angeles-influenced panic all season.  They should consider themselves lucky though, because they made the playoffs despite the Lakers sending them Anthrax in the form of PF Lamar Odom this year.  This team was old last year, but they were also fortunate to run into four teams (Trail Blazers, Lakers, Thunder, Heat) that were emotionally fragile in one way or another on the way to winning the championship.  The Mavs SIX best players are guys who are 32 or older (PF Dirk Nowitzki, PG Jason Kidd, SG Vince Carter, SF Shawn Marion, C Brendan Haywood, SG Jason Terry).  The youngest guy in the rotation is PF Brendan Wright, who seems old when you think about his UNC days/Warriors bust days, but is only 24 and coming off a season in which he saved the Mavericks from Odom’s meltdown.  Maybe they get lucky like they did last year.  Like I said when the season started, they’re not going out easy.  There’s no reason for this team to play tight, having already won a championship and knowing they’re arguably not supposed to even be in this position after what they went through with Odom during the season.

#3 – Los Angeles Lakers (10-6, 9-7, 11-5, 10-6, +1):  It’s no secret that I’m not a Lakers fan, especially after I wrote an article about how the Mavericks swept them last year appropriately titled “Why We Hate the Lakers”.  I have never been a Kobe apologist, and I don’t believe championships should absolve a player from what they can’t or won’t do as a team leader.  I’m not hating on Kobe’s five rings; on the contrary, I believe Kobe should have eight rings by now.  He should get his sixth ring this year!  Why not?  Despite the fact that Phil Jackson was replaced by head coach Mike Brown, the Lakers had a very good season, especially after the All-Star break when they got multiple ego-appeasing wins on ABC to add to the hype/drama.  Unfortunately for the Lakers, the last of those hyped up Sunday afternoon wins was in double OT against the Thunder, which saw SF Metta World Peace get himself suspended for seven games (two because of the hit on James Harden, two because it was on national television, and three because he used to be Ron Artest) and ultra-talented/ultra-immature/Kobe-enabled C Andrew Bynum make love to the bench because PF Jordan Hill finally started playing like a difference-making lottery pick.  Now Bynum gets to run up and down the floor in Denver’s thin air until World Peace returns.  It’s the playoffs, and I’ll be surprised when the Lakers are eliminated because of their Kobe-inspired poise down the stretch in games.  But Kobe isn’t the key to a Lakers championship, and neither is PF Pau Gasol or new PG Ramon Sessions.  It’s Bynum.  If he continues to play like Shaq, the Lakers will be champs.  If he continues to act like Shaq (TNT Shaq, that is), Bryant’s inefficient shooting (43% FGs) and ball-handling (4.6 assists to 3.5 TOs) won’t save them.

#6 – Denver Nuggets (11-5, 6-10, 9-7, 10-6, +2):  I liked the Nuggets last year, but felt bad for them because they were going to get cooked by Kevin Durant.  Maybe I should feel bad for them again because they drew Kobe Bryant.  But then again, if the Nuggets are ever going to matter, it will have to start now.  I’m not saying jump on their bandwagon, because there is nothing in the Nuggets’ history to suggest they will beat Kobe, Bynum, and the Lakers even with World Peace suspended.  But I do think that if the Nuggets play up to their capability, they can make a postseason run.  They play very fast, with PG Ty Lawson being their biggest playmaker, but they have the size and energy to defend when necessary.  I want to like them more, but I’m not sure head coach George Karl knows who he can trust late offensively (SG Arron Afflalo?  SF Danilo Gallinari?) or if any of his big men are ready for the moment (PF Kenneth Faried is a rookie, C Kosta Koufos starts and C Timofey Mozgov play because C JaVale McGee is mistake-prone to say the least, and PF Al Harrington is playing injured).

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 – Chicago Bulls (13-3, 12-4, 13-3, 10-6, +2):  Somehow, the Bulls finished with the best record in the NBA with 2011 MVP PG Derrick Rose missing 27 games, All-Star SF Luol Deng missing 12 games, and new starting SG Richard Hamilton missing 38 games.  This bandwagon might even be losing some steam because Rose and Hamilton’s re-integration into the lineup hasn’t always been pretty.  Even the usually chivalrous Philadelphia 76ers openly tanked their way to Chicago in an effort to avoid the Miami Heat!  Remember when George Karl tried (and failed) to earn a matchup with the Mavericks last year because they thought it was a better matchup?  Well, that Mavericks team won the championship last year.  I have the Bulls winning it this year, and it is because of a head coach in Tom Thibodeau that has kept the Bulls strong all year despite the injuries (again) with a very good bench (again) and the league’s #1 defense (they were #2 last year).  PF Carlos Boozer recovered from a bad postseason last year to stay healthy and productive (despite still being a defensive liability at times), C Joakim Noah almost averaged a double-double, and the Bulls look healthy.  If there’s room on this bandwagon, get your spot.

#8 – Philadelphia 76ers (11-5, 9-7, 7-9, 7-9, +1):  Good thing the 76ers started so hot, because the rest of the league predictably figured them out by midseason.  The 76ers are incredibly unselfish and athletic, as it shows on the defensive end, where they ranked 3rd in the league.  As good as head coach Doug Collins’ team is on defense though, that’s how lost they are on offense, especially at the end of games.  Their bench is actually very good, and looks better now that C Spencer Hawes will join PG Louis Williams, SF Thaddeus Young, and SG Evan Turner on the second unit.  Too bad none of the team’s starters (PG Jrue Holiday, SG Jodie Meeks, All-Star SF Andre Iguodala, PF Elton Brand, rookie C Lavoy Allen) average more than Holiday’s 13.5 points a game.  It’s a shame another Sixers season will end due to the fact that Iguodala and Brand combine for more millions of dollars ($30+) this season than points per game (23.4).

#4 – Boston Celtics (7-9, 8-8, 11-5, 11-5, +2):  Much like the Mavericks, the Celtics were written off at midseason as trade talk surrounding the team’s best four players (PG Rajon Rondo, SG Ray Allen, SF Paul Pierce, C Kevin Garnett).  The Celtics then proceeded to blow through the second half of the season with a better record than everyone this side of San Antonio and Chicago.  The keys to the Celtics’ new found success?  Not making any rash trades, remembering that the Celtics didn’t make the Finals in 2009 (KG’s knee) and 2011 (Rondo’s elbow) because of injury, and arguably didn’t win in 2010 because of former C Kendrick Perkins’ knee injury.  Also, since C Jermaine O’Neal flopped, the Celtics moved PF Brandon Bass into the starting lineup, and he has produced.  Finally, to give the Celtics’ bench a chance, head coach Dc Rivers moved Jesus Shuttlesworth to the second unit, and new starting SG Avery Bradley learned how to shoot to go with his perimeter defense.  The NBA’s second ranked defense should be a hot bandwagon right now; I’d like them more but their frontcourt might be too thin this year to go all the way.

#5 – Atlanta Hawks (11-5, 8-8, 9-7, 10-6, +2): Even though the Celtics are the higher seed and won their division, the Hawks have home court advantage.  Not that the Hawks have fans or anything; the team has been in Atlanta since 1968 and have been a playoff team for five years now, and their attendance is still terrible.  This was a solid team all season, have an All-Star player in SF Joe Johnson who still barely scores more points per game than million dollars per season, have an All-Star snub in PF Josh Smith who turned in a career year with C Al Horford injured, and even have two 1990s lottery picks sitting on the bench (SGs Tracy McGrady and Jerry Stackhouse), yet they’re still undercovered.  The Hawks have a very sneaky bandwagon, especially if PG Jeff Teague learns from his torching of Derrick Rose from last year.  But the fact that their best big man besides Smith is Ivan Johnson is probably going to keep their bandwagon from gaining any traction.  Too bad they couldn’t draw Orlando like they did last year, but the last series the Hawks had with Boston went seven games back in 2008, the year Boston won the championship.

#2 – Miami Heat (11-5, 14-2, 10-6, 11-5, +0):  The Heat lost 20 games this season, and their haters remember every single one of them.  Many folks are excited to see the likely MVP SF LeBron James, franchise SG Dwyane Wade, and the “other” All-Star PF Chris Bosh get their struggle on in the first round.  That alone means there is space on their bandwagon (that, and the fact that South Beach doesn’t exactly rep their team hard), and folks wouldn’t be surprised to see the Heat lose in the first round to a team they beat pre-, peak, and post-LINsanity.  There’s also a reason to believe the NBA JAM Heat could win the championship: the fact that they are defending their Eastern Conference championship with James/Wade/Bosh offensively and a top-5 defense.  I’m not sure they escape the East this year because they lack so much offense when their shots aren’t falling, and head coach Erik Spoelstra can’t be too comfortable with his focal points’ poise late in games.

#7 – New York Knicks (6-10, 10-6, 7-9, 11-5, +2):  The Knicks are basically the Eastern Conference Grizzlies, only without the strong point guard play and with the media hype that comes from New York.  The Knicks have been an inconsistent team all season, and they haven’t won a championship since 1973, a playoff series since 2000, or even a single playoff game since 2001.  They didn’t have a PG until Jeremy Lin emerged midseason when SF Carmelo Anthony and PF Amar’e Stoudemire were out injured.  Then those guys came back with the addition of SG J.R. Smith and the team sputtered to the point that head coach Mike D’Antoni removed himself from the team amidst trade rumors.  But head coach Mike Woodson and C Tyson Chandler had already been turning the Knicks’ defense around, and injuries to Lin and Stoudemire have put the ball back in Carmelo’s hands.  That’s all nice and wonderful, and the Knicks’ bandwagon is filling up as a result.  The only problem for the Knicks?  They are like the Heat in that their two best scorers (Anthony and Stoudemire) don’t seem to be at their best at the same time.  And unlike the Heat, the Knicks have serious ball control issues, ranking second to last in turnovers.  The Knicks were also second in three-point attempts.  They are a scary good team, and they certainly will at least win a playoff game this year.  They certainly have the talent to win a championship, so go ahead and join their bandwagon … and hope that the ride stays smooth throughout the playoffs.

#3 – Indiana Pacers (11-5, 9-7, 9-7, 12-4, +1):  Dwight Howard dominated the Pacers all season, so they definitely drew the winning lottery ticket to start their postseason, which will make them feel good heading into the second round.  They looked great last year in falling to the Bulls, and this year head coach Frank Vogel had the Pacers playing defense at a level not seen in Indiana since Rick Carlisle was fired five years ago.  SG Paul George showed why he was the 10th pick the 2010 Draft, improving his shooting and defense significantly, and veteran additions PF David West, PG George Hill, and SG Leandro Barbosa have helped significantly.  Hill’s emergence has allowed PG Darren Collison to come off the bench when he gets healthy, and PF Tyler Hansbrough’s game is much better off the bench as well.  All eyes will be on SF Danny Granger and All-Star C Roy Hibbert though.  If you want to hop on the Pacers’ bandwagon, you are hoping that Granger is shooting well (career-low 42% FGs) and making sound decisions (only 1.8 assists per game).  You are also hoping Hibbert makes his presence known as the Pacers best inside threat on offense and defense.  You are also hoping the Pacers know what to do against the Knicks, Heat, or Bulls, because they only went 3-7 against those teams.

#6 – Orlando Magic (11-5, 9-7, 10-6, 6-10, +1):  There weren’t going to be many folks on this bandwagon in the first place.  Not with C Dwight Howard exposed last year by the Hawks as a powerful but vulnerable post presence, and not with the drama surrounding Howard, head coach Stan Van Gundy, and GM Otis Smith.  But the New Jersey Nets weren’t the only team screwed by Dwight Howard staying in Orlando/waiting until the summer to get traded, as Howard’s back surgery crippled the Magic’s chance of making a postseason run.  The Magic have been the same team the last five years: Van Gundy has surrounded Howard’s post presence with a surplus of shooters who don’t really create their own shot except for maybe PG Jameer Nelson, SF Hedo Turkoglu, and SG Jason Richardson, while playing top-10 defense.  Sure, PF Ryan Anderson and SG J.J. Redick have stepped up this season, and C Glen Davis has shown he can produce.  But Davis is hobbling into the playoffs with a bum ankle, Turkoglu has a face mask, and Van Gundy is forced to rely on not-ready-for-primetime big men PF Earl Clark and C Daniel Orton.  This bandwagon isn’t just leaking oil, it’s running on empty.  You must really like Stan and/or Jeff Van Gundy to stay on it at this point!

That's the Bandwagon Report for the 2012 NBA Playoffs! Pick one, and we'll see where it goes for the next two months/weeks!

-1SKILLZ