NFL 2013 Divisional picks (3-1 last week): SEA, NE, CAR, DEN
— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) January 10, 2014
We’re on to the second round of the NFL playoffs, with the Saturday games pitting the New Orleans Saints at the Seattle Seahawks and the Indianapolis Colts at the New England Patriots. Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers are at the Carolina Panthers and the San Diego Chargers are at the Denver Broncos.
Biggest offseason needs for Wild Card losers: Chiefs (DB) Eagles (DB, K) Bengals (DE, RB) Packers (DT)
— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) January 7, 2014
Last week, I was only surprised by one result from Wild Card weekend – the 27-10 Chargers win at Cincinnati. I didn’t have to change my projections from the Hypothesis: Observed report. But I did have to switch some things up from the AFC. Fellow Neon Tommy writer Andrew McKagan and I broke it down on our third edition of NTFL this season.
Seahawks over Saints: This is a rematch of both the Week 13 Monday Night Football matchup and the 2010 Wild Card playoff game that featured the BeastQuake. Now, the Saints and Seahawks also matched up during the 2010 regular season, and the Saints won that game. History says a lot of things, but history is made during the games as much as they are recycled into the games’ storylines. It’s not like the Saints can’t go into Seattle and have success. But let’s be real – they are going from facing a Philadelphia Eagles team that gave up the most passing yards in the NFL to facing a Seahawks team that allowed the fewest. Saints QB Drew Brees is a “pick” QB, not a “sack” QB … in Philadelphia, he tossed two first-half INTs. Brees can’t afford to turn the ball over. Saints RB Mark Ingram had a fun time running against a softened Philadelphia front seven … he’s in a tougher spot in Seattle, as the Seahawks can trust their secondary more than the Eagles could. Rookie Saints LT Terron Armstead will get his first experience of the Seattle crowd at CenturyLink Field. Seattle has to do a better job of protecting QB Russell Wilson – Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is going to send pressure Wilson’s way in an effort to not have Wilson destroy them again. Of course, the Saints did a very good job of containing Philadelphia’s top-ranked running game, and they prevented Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch from having a big game on Monday Night Football. Seattle will get WR Percy Harvin back, but it remains to be seen what kind of effectiveness he’ll have. Same goes for concussed New Orleans CB Keenan Lewis. New Orleans benefitted from poor special teams play from the Eagles (missed field goal, short kickoffs, penalties). Seattle has a much better special teams unit. If I’m New Orleans, I feel good about this game – after all, they have a QB who has won a Super Bowl and the postseason road monkey is off the franchise’s back. But it’s still hard to win two road games outside of the division, and the Seahawks still aren’t a good matchup for the Saints, especially outside of NOLA.
Patriots over Colts: In Week 11 of the 2012 season, the Indianapolis Colts went to Gillette Stadium and took a 14-7 lead going into the second quarter. The Patriots obliterated them from there, winning the game 59-24. The two teams didn’t play each other in the regular season for the first time since 2002, but now we get a cute (ugh) storyline about new-school Colts QB Andrew Luck and old-school Patriots QB Tom Brady. The Colts haven’t won a road playoff game since 2006, losing at San Diego in 2008-2009 and in Baltimore last year. Indianapolis came back from a 38-10 third-quarter deficit to beat the Kansas City Chiefs 45-44, the second-largest comeback in NFL history (1992 Bills). Now, those BIlls rode their comeback all the way to the Super Bowl. The Colts are playing with house money, and they’re pulling out all the stops, signing former Patriots WR Deion Branch. Beating the Chiefs and their failed coverage strategies indoors is one thing – going into New England will be a bigger challenge for Luck and his top-target, WR T.Y. Hilton. The Patriots ended ILB Brandon Spikes’ season, which weakens an already shallow run defense. It remains to be seen whether or not the Colts can take advantage of replacement LBs Dane Fletcher and rookie Jamie Collins. Indianapolis still doesn’t trust RB Donald Brown with a lot of touches, and RB Trent Richardson has been a mistake-prone lost cause this season. The Colts had the fewest turnovers in the NFL this season, but the Chiefs forced four turnovers last week. The Patriots were 7-0 when they won the turnover battle, so Luck will need to get back to his ways of protecting the football. Colts OLB Robert Mathis led the NFL in sacks, and he should get opportunities to rush the passer from both edges. He is going to be New England’s greatest concern. The biggest mismatch will be New England’s ability to run the football on the soft front seven of the Colts. The question is whether or not Patriots RBs LeGarrette Blount, Stevan Ridley, and Shane Vereen hold onto the football. The trio combined for 15 rushing TDs, but eight fumbles. The Colts were lit up in the secondary by Kansas City QB Alex Smith, but Brady doesn’t have the same advantages in the inclement weather. The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win this game, and the Patriots are great at playing in bad weather contests.
Panthers over 49ers: The Panthers scored the only touchdown in their Week 10 game at San Francisco, edging the 49ers 10-9. The last time the 49ers defeated the Panthers was in 2001, when the two teams were NFL Western division rivals – Carolina has won four straight meetings. The 49ers have more weaponry for this matchup, establishing the return of WR Michael Crabtree as well as getting TE Vernon Davis healthy for a full game. The biggest difference for the 49ers this weekend compared to last week in Green Bay is that the Carolina Panthers have a rested front seven that is arguably the greatest in the NFL. The 49ers beat the Packers 23-20, as 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick continued his dominance of the Packers by leading a game-winning drive. Carolina is so much more formidable rushing the passer, stopping the run, and making plays. San Francisco also has a defensive advantage, as Carolina WR Steve Smith is at less than full strength. The 49ers sacked Carolina QB Cam Newton three times in Week 10, and Carolina was held under 300 yards, so it’s not like the Panthers are well-equipped to move the ball much against the 49ers either. San Francisco probably feels great about this matchup. But again, it’s hard to win two games in a row on the road outside of the division, and Carolina had a week off to get ready for a home game.
Broncos over Chargers: San Diego has so many reasons to feel great about going to Denver. For one, they were the only team to beat the Broncos in Colorado. Chargers QB Philip Rivers is 2-0 against Broncos QB Peyton Manning in the playoffs, defeating his Colts in 2007-2008 and 2008-2009. Manning has the NFL record for one-and-dones by a starting QB, and the last time Manning set the NFL record for TD passes in a season, the 2004-2005 Patriots humbled his team in the Divisional round. San Diego kept the prolific Denver offense under 30 points twice this season. Denver’s defense is not better than the Cincinnati defense that the Chargers scored 27 points on. San Diego defensive coordinator John Pagano has been on the Chargers’ staff that has frustrated Manning in the past during the regular season and playoffs (remember, the Chargers once intercepted Manning six times in a game). 3-4 defenses have been the bane of Manning’s postseason existence, responsible for ending his 2005 (Steelers), 2007 (Chargers), 2008 (Chargers), 2010 (Jets), and 2012 (Ravens) seasons. Now, the Broncos should win Sunday. Manning will have his full arsenal of receivers (WRs Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, and TE Julius Thomas) against what is still an average at very best secondary of the Chargers. Chargers RB Ryan Mathews played a major role in the win over Denver on Thursday Night Football in Week 15, but Mathews isn’t at full strength. Chargers RBs Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown will let the Chargers run the ball, especially against a thin front seven of the Broncos. But Woodhead is the team’s receiving back, and Brown’s explosion left him years ago. The Chargers will have to put more on Rivers, and while he is capable of doing work on Denver’s defense, it will also allow the Broncos to let Manning get more chances to put digits up. This game shouldn’t be close, and the Broncos should put up a healthy amount of points. But no one will be surprised if San Diego can pull off another upset.
-1SKILLZ