2013 NFL Week 17 picks (8-8 in Week 16, +41 for 2013): ATL, GB, BAL, JAX, NYJ, DET, NE, NO, WAS, PIT, TEN, SF, DEN, KC, SEA, DAL
— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) December 25, 2013
The final week of the 2013 NFL season is upon us, and I revived the notorious NTFL with fellow Neon Tommy scribe Andrew McKagan.
NTFL: Week 17 of the 2013 NFL Season
We wound up discussing all 16 games, and all 32 teams. 13 games have playoff implications, while the games at Tennessee, NFC New York, and Minnesota affect the top of the draft order.
AFC EAST: The New England Patriots haven’t lost at home to the Buffalo Bills since 2000, and they have won 19 of the last 20 matchups. It won’t be a cakewalk with the way Buffalo’s defense matches up with the Patriots, but New England should outlast Buffalo. The Miami Dolphins are one of four teams in the AFC Wild Card hunt, and they host the Jets, a team they beat 23-3 at MetLife Stadium. The Jets, in what may or may not be head coach Rex Ryan’s final game, will feature the run game in an effort to take the game out of rookie QB Geno Smith’s hands. Miami will need to protect the passer better if they’re not going to run the football – look for the Jets to be an effectve spoiler while sacking Miami QB Ryan Tannehill every quarter.
AFC NORTH: The defending champion Baltimore Ravens are on the road against the NFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens beat the Bengals in overtime in Maryland, but they are a terrible road team (1-6) playing against a team that hasn’t lost at home. Baltimore will need to continue their dominance of Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton, who has a 1-4 record and 4:7 TD-INT ratio against the Ravens. The Pittsburgh Steelers need to beat the Cleveland Browns and hope for losses by Baltimore, Miami, and the San Diego Chargers. Beating the Browns shouldn’t be a problem for the Steelers: they’ve beaten the Browns 18 out of the last 20 meetings and haven’t lost at home to Cleveland since 2003. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is having a great season, starting all 16 games for the first time since 2008 while putting up a 27:12 TD-INT ratio. His connection with WR Antonio Brown is Pittsburgh’s meal ticket offensively, while Cleveland will be trying to get another big game from WR Josh Gordon.
AFC SOUTH: The Indianapolis Colts are in play for a first-round bye if they sweep the division – a home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars isn’t a given though, despite the 34-point beatdown applied earlier this season in North Florida. Both teams will play hard [Rasheed Wallace voice], and despite the obvious lack of talent, Jacksonville has been in every game since the bye week, going 4-3 in the process (3-0 on the road). Jacksonville needs a throwback game from RB Maurice Jones-Drew in what may be his last game as a Jaguar. Both the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans are expected to change coaches this offseason, and while a Texans loss gives them the top pick in the draft, a Titans win keeps the AFC South from having three ten-loss teams. The Texans used to smoke the Titans anytime QB Matt Schaub was in the starting lineup, but that was back when Schaub produced TDs – times have changed.
AFC WEST: Denver Broncos QB Peyton Manning has already set the record for most TD passes in a season, and he’ll go to Oakland to set the record for most passing yards in a season. He’s a good bet to get it, as the Raiders are dreadful against the pass (worst opposing passer rating in the AFC). The San Diego Chargers may be eliminated by time their home game against the Kansas City Chiefs kicks off, while the Chiefs are treating the game like a preseason affair. With the low quality of San Diego’s pass defense, look for this game to be more interesting than it should be.
NFC EAST: The NFC East Championship pits the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles together in North Texas. While the Cowboys have lost this game to New York and Washington the last two years, Philadelphia lost this game to Dallas in Week 17 of the 2009 season. The Cowboys have been inept defensively for most of the season, but they went on the road in Philadelphia without DE DeMarcus Ware and completely disrupted the Eagles offense, holding them to 3 points and 278 yards. Not having QB Tony Romo should allow Dallas to focus on running the football with RB DeMarco Murray, as Cowboys backup QB Kyle Orton doesn’t have the playmaking ability that Romo has. Without ILB Sean Lee, Dallas probably won’t lock up Philadelphia again, so they’ll need to not be stubborn on offense this time. The New York Giants will look to avoid their first ten-loss season since QB Eli Manning’s rookie season, but I’m not sure it happens against the Redskins, even with Washington head coach Mike Shanahan on the hot seat. Washington traded their pick to Saint Louis, and while their defense has been rancid for years, they always seem to play well against Manning (4:9 TD-INT ratio since Jim Haslett took over as defensive coordinator in 2010).
NFC NORTH: The NFC North game between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers features two QBs who were injured by the end of the Monday Night Football matchup. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is returning from a broken collarbone, an injury that is usually season-ending, while QB Jay Cutler is basically playing for a contract after an injury-marred season that saw his backup, QB Josh McCown, outplay him. This could be a shootout, and the losing defensive coordinator could be on the firing line (Green Bay’s Dom Capers, Chicago’s Mel Tucker). If turnovers are to be a major factor, Rodgers is to be trusted (8 career multi-INT games, none vs. Chicago), while Cutler is not (28 career multi-INT games, five vs. Green Bay). In the final game of the Metrodome, the Vikings will not have RBs Adrian Peterson or Toby Gerhart against the Detroit Lions. Detroit might win this game and get to 8-8, but they should be ashamed of their record outside of the division (3-7) and QB Matthew Stafford’s meltdown (19:7 TD-INT ratio during 6-3 start, 9-12 TD-INT ratio during 1-5 finish). I’m on record saying that San Diego offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt should be considered as Detroit head coach Jim Schwartz’s replacement, while Minnesota should consider Cincinnati defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer as a replacement for head coach Leslie Frazier.
NFC SOUTH: The Carolina Panthers have already clinched a playoff berth, but the Atlanta Falcons haven’t lost at home to the Panthers since hiring head coach Mike Smith and drafting QB Matt Ryan in 2008. Ryan needs to avoid turnovers while working his last game with TE Tony Gonzalez. Atlanta’s NFL-worst secondary gets a break due to the absence of Carolina WR Steve Smith – Smith has showed his age a bit this year, but it will be the first time Carolina QB Cam Newton doesn’t have his best receiver. A Carolina loss opens the door for the New Orleans Saints to win the division – all they would need to do is win at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their league-worst offense. New Orleans hasn’t lost at home all season, while Tampa hasn’t gained 300 yards in over a month.
NFC WEST: The Seattle Seahawks need to beat the Saint Louis Rams at home to ensure homefield throughout the NFC playoffs – a loss puts them at risk for being the fifth seed. The last time Saint Louis won at Seattle was the last time the Rams fielded a playoff team – the 2004 postseason. Seattle has won 15 of the last 17 meetings. The Rams defend the Seahawks well for the most part, but the Seahawks defend the Rams even better, especially when Seattle stops the run – something they didn’t do in Missouri when rookie RB Zac Stacy broke out with 134 yards. The San Francisco 49ers could win the division, and the Arizona Cardinals could make the playoffs with an 11-5 record, which would mark their most wins since they were the Saint Louis Cardinals in 1975. Neither will happen: I expect the 49ers to be on the road for the postseason while eliminating the Cardinals. The 49ers can defend Arizona, while Arizona can’t stop San Francisco’s best weapon on offense, TE Vernon Davis (career-high 180 yards vs. Cardinals earlier this season, with 2 TDs).
-1SKILLZ