2013 NFL Week 16 Gameplan
Week 16 marks the last regular season non-divisional matchups before Week 17.
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Winter is here. There are six divisional matchups for Week 16 (three in each conference), but the last regular season conference and interconference games are on the schedule as well.Half of the 16 games are conference games, hosted by every division except the NFC South:-Cleveland at New York Jets (AFC East)-New England at Baltimore (AFC North)-Denver at Houston (AFC South)-Indianapolis at Kansas City (AFC West)-Chicago at Philadelphia (NFC East)-New York Giants at Detroit (NFC North)-Tampa Bay at Saint Louis (NFC West)-Atlanta at San Francisco (Monday Night Football)The AFC North and NFC North will feature the two interconference games: Minnesota at Cincinnati, Pittsburgh at Green Bay.The other six divisions will feature divisional games:-Miami at Buffalo (AFC East)-Tennessee at Jacksonville (AFC South)-Oakland at San Diego (AFC West)-Dallas at Washington (NFC East)-New Orleans at Carolina (NFC South)-Arizona at Seattle (NFC West)
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2013 NFL Week 16 picks (10-6 in Week 15, +41 for 2013): MIA, NO, CIN, DEN, TEN, IND, CLE, STL, WAS, NYG, SEA, GB, SD, BAL, CHI, SF
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Whether it's the postseason or the offseason, all of these games mean something. Here's what I'll be looking for in each game:Dolphins over Bills: The Bills will be starting QB Thad Lewis again, the same quarterback who went into Miami and led the Bills to a 23-21 victory in Week 7. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill turned the ball over three times in that game. Tannehill has settled down nicely since that game, throwing 14 TDs and seven INTs since that game while leading Miami to a 5-3 record in that span. Buffalo will be without WR Stevie Johnson as well, putting more pressure on a low-powered passing attack against a top-five pass defense. Miami is a playoff team if they win out, but they better protect the quarterback in upstate NY, as the Bills lead the NFL in sacks.
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Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill fumble recovered by the Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill fumbles the ball and is recovered by Buffalo Bills defensive lineman Kyle Williams in Week 7. -
Saints over Panthers: This game marks the end of a brutal stretch in New Orleans' schedule: four road games in the last five weeks, with the only home game coming at home against the Panthers. Based on the road woes, I can see New Orleans getting their struggle on offensively. But I thought the Panthers would do a better job defensively in the Superdome two weeks ago – Carolina had no answer for inside receivers TE Jimmy Graham and WR Marques Colston. Those two combined for 15 catches and four TDs. Carolina's offense was completely inept in New Orleans two weeks ago, so we'll see if QB Cam Newton gets better protection this time – I'm betting that he won't.
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Marques Colston’s 6-yard touchdown
New Orleans Saints quarterback finds wide receiver Marques Colston for a 6-yard touchdown. -
Bengals over Vikings: The Bengals finished the 2013 regular season with a 3-5 road record, with the three wins coming by a combined 13 points. Cincinnati has been absolutely dominant at home, edging teams led by Super Bowl winning passers (Steelers, Packers, Patriots) while blowing out teams led by lesser passers (Jets, Browns, Colts). That trend needs to continue against the Vikings and QB Matt Cassel, or the Bengals will blow the division and possibly a playoff appearance. Cincinnati has a top-five run defense, so the matchup will be a tough one for Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. Minnesota has given up the most TD passes in the NFL, and Cincinnati WR A.J. Green should serve as the greatest beneficiary.
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NFL GameDay: Bengals vs. Vikings highlights
Adrian Peterson leads the Vikings to a 30-10 win over the Bengals. -
Broncos over Texans: I thought this was going to be a preview of the AFC Championship. Instead, the Texans come in with a 12-game losing streak as the Broncos look to win their first game in Houston since 1983, when the Broncos defeated the Houston Oilers 26-14. The Texans are the definition of a "don't bend, break" defense, ranking 4th in yardage but 25th in points allowed. Intercepting only six passes will do that to a defense, and I doubt they'll stop Denver QB Peyton Manning from getting his 50th TD pass. Houston will start QB Matt Schaub, who lit up Denver for four TDs last year but also took a vicious hit from current teammate Joe Mays in the process – I expect less TDs and more pressure.
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Titans over Jaguars: Tennessee is going to miss the playoffs for the fifth straight season, and if head coach Mike Munchak loses his job after being associated with the franchise since 1982, he can look to the fact that the Titans are 0-4 in the worst division in the NFL this season. In fact, this year's AFC South could become the first team since the 2005 NFC West to have three ten-loss teams if Tennessee loses again this season. Jacksonville started 0-8 before finding a way to sneak past the Titans in Week 10, the same game Tennessee QB Jake Locker was lost for the season due to a Lisfranc injury. The Jaguars shut down WR Cecil Shorts, leaving QB Chad Henne with Mike Brown, Kerry Taylor, and Ace Sanders out wide. The only way Tennessee gets swept by Jacksonville is if they turn the ball over every quarter – which isn't out of the question with Tennessee QB Ryan Fitzpatrick involved.
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Will Blackmon strips away a TD
Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Will Blackmon steals the ball away from Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick late in the fourth … -
Colts over Chiefs: The Colts were in Kansas City for Week 16 last year, and despite the Chiefs gaining 352 rushing yards, the Colts held on for a 20-13 win. Since the bye week, Indianapolis is 4-0 vs. the AFC South, and 0-3 vs. the Rams, Cardinals, and Bengals. The Colts host Jacksonville next week, so they could use a validator going into the playoffs. They get a break if Kansas City OLB Justin Houston misses another game, as the Chiefs have given up more than 31 points three of the last four weeks. Indianapolis needs to sell out to stop Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles (5 TDs in Oakland last week) and force QB Alex Smith to make tight throws.
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Colts recover Charles’ fumble
Indianapolis Colts defensive back Joe Lefeged scoops up a Jamaal Charles fumble, halting the Kansas City Chiefs in the red zone. -
Browns over Jets: Jets TE Kellen Winslow was Cleveland's first round pick back in 2004, drafting him over QB Ben Roethlisberger. Winslow is excited about facing his old team, but this won't be the first time he faces the Browns, as he had 32 receiving yards for Tampa Bay back in 2010. Needless to say, Winslow shouldn't be counted on as a major factor against the Browns, especially with Jets rookie QB Geno Smith putting up Mark Sanchez numbers. Cleveland won't be running the ball much, but we knew that when they traded RB Trent Richardson – they should exploit the unfortunate DB tasked with covering WR Josh Gordon. Like Houston, Cleveland's defense is "don't bend, break" (8th in yards, 24th in points allowed), but it's fun playing against rookie passers and unproductive, yet talkative receivers.
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Kellen Winslow, ready to face ex-team, says the Browns “can’t guard me.” Didn’t, however, use term “weakest link.” http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/10168241/kellen-winslow-new-york-jets-says-cleveland-browns-can?t-guard-me …
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Rams over Buccaneers: This is a rematch from last year's 28-13 Rams win, only this takes place in Missouri. The Buccaneers are 4-2 in their last six after starting 0-8, but they still rank dead last in yards offensively and total passing yards. The Rams aren't much better, ranking 27th in passing yards. Saint Louis has embarrassed itself for most of the season in pass defense, but they are coming off of a relatively encouraging performance at home, allowing only one TD pass to New Orleans QB Drew Brees despite facing 56 passes. A steady diet of touches for Saint Louis rookie RB Zac Stacy should be in order, as he has shown he can handle a heavy workload (four games of 25+ carries).
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Week 15: Zac Stacy Highlights
St. Louis Rams running back Zac Stacy helped his team stun the New Orleans Saints in Week 15, tallying 29 touches for 143 scrimmage yards… -
Redskins over Cowboys: Of the four seven-win teams in the NFL entering Week 16, the Cowboys are the worst, losing to San Diego, Detroit, and Green Bay. In fact, the Cowboys are 3-7 outside of their division this season – I thought this was a 5-11 team entering the season, and they played like it outside of the NFC East. That said, the Cowboys are 4-0 in their division, which includes a 31-16 home victory over Washington. The Redskins are a certified dumpster fire, but if there is a game they can win with QB Kirk Cousins, it's this home matchup against a Cowboys defense allowing 312.5 passing yards a game. Of course, the Redskins would have to keep a running back out of the end zone, but Dallas is usually good on not giving RB DeMarco Murray the ball when it matters most.
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Cowboys have been OWNED by backup QBs past 2 weeks. And given the strange playcalling duo of JG and BC, getting into shootout is a bad idea.
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Giants over Lions: Like the Cowboys, many were ready to give Detroit a division title, not necessarily because the Lions were playing well, but because Detroit's QB was in one piece. Also like the Cowboys, the Lions have been hot garbage outside of their division, putting up a record of 3-6 (yes, I thought Detroit was a 5-11 team as well). Detroit has lost four of their last five games, and in that span, QB Matthew Stafford has been terrible (9 TD passes, 10 INTs, 51% completions, 69.2 passer rating). Basically, he's recent play has mirrored that of another former No.1 overall pick, Giants QB Eli Manning (NFL-leading 25 INTs, 69.7 passer rating). Manning hasn't been indoors since Week 1 when he put up 450 passing yards and four TDs (at Dallas, with three crippling INTs, and with WR Victor Cruz) – I wouldn't be surprised if he plays his best game in a long time.
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Baltimore Ravens safety Matt Elam interception
Baltimore Ravens safety Matt Elam picks off a Matthew Stafford pass to end the Detroit Lions’ final drive. -
Seahawks over Cardinals: Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 3-0 at home vs. Arizona as the Seahawks head coach. That includes a 58-0 debacle last December. The Seahawks forced Arizona QB Carson Palmer into arguably his worst game of the season in October, sacking him seven times and intercepting him twice. It won't get a whole lot better for Palmer in Seattle, where the Seahawks have not lost since drafting QB Russell Wilson in 2012. The Cardinals will stress Seattle's offensive line, but Wilson just doesn't make game-crippling mistakes at home.
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Week 14: Seahawks defense highlights
Catch the highlights of the Seattle Seahawks defense and special teams as they force eight turnovers and score two touchdowns. -
Packers over Steelers: This is a rematch of Super Bowl XLV, only Green Bay QB Matt Flynn will start with Super Bowl XLV MVP Aaron Rodgers still out with a collarbone injury. Flynn has shown that he can put together a competent performance in Green Bay's offense, given that he faces a defense with some weak links. Pittsburgh CBs have only intercepted two passes this season, with CB Ike Taylor getting his struggle on in particular. Pittsburgh's run defense has also struggled for most of the season (115.6 yards allowed), which encourages Green Bay rookie RB Eddie Lacy to hold it down. Green Bay's biggest weakness is against the run, but running the football happens to be Pittsburgh's biggest weakness this season as well, as the Ravens are the only team averaging fewer than Pittsburgh's 3.3 yards per carry.
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Mike Tomlin on choosing Le’Veon Bell over Eddie Lacy in the 2013 NFL Draft: “It was an easy decision for me.” http://instagram.com/p/iCkxP-BCNo/
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Chargers over Raiders: Oakland is coming off of one of the worst games in franchise history, giving the ball away seven times (most turnovers in 15 years) while giving up a franchise-record 56 points at home to Kansas City. No position is safe in Oakland, including head coach Dennis Allen, as the Raiders have lost six of their last seven games. San Diego found a way to lose with the lights out on the East Coast in Northern California, as the Chargers turned the ball over five times in a 27-17 Week 5 loss. San Diego QB Philip Rivers still torched the helpless Oakland pass defense for 411 yards in that game, and the Chargers have only seven turnovers in their last nine games. San Diego's secondary struggles almost as much as Oakland's does, so there will be opportunities for whichever QB Dennis Allen feels like rolling out there to do something possible.
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San Diego Chargers offensive tackle D.J. Fluker body slam
San Diego Chargers rookie offensive tackle D.J. Fluker is flagged for unnecessary roughness after slamming Oakland Raiders linebacker Sio… -
Ravens over Patriots: Baltimore has scored 30 points only once all season, and that was a game against the Texans bolstered by TDs by the defense and special teams. The Patriots rarely give up silly scores, but they have had all kinds of problems keeping the scoreboard under control, giving up 24+ points in six straight games. New England has to get by on an effective, yet tedious short passing game, while Baltimore has to get by on QB Joe Flacco surviving abominable offensive line play well enough to get K Justin Tucker in range. All of New England's road games have been decided by less than a TD, while Baltimore's only home loss this season was a 19-17 decision vs. Green Bay. This should be another sloppy classic, and don't be surprised if another Brady comeback drive dies in the red zone.
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Bears over Eagles: Philadelphia's secondary went to hell in Minnesota, giving up 370 net passing yards to an offense starting TE Chase Ford and RB Matt Asiata. Chicago has the best offense in the league this side of Denver, and the matchups Chicago QB Jay Cutler will have against the Eagles won't even be fair. Chicago has a major weakness in run defense, and RB LeSean McCoy should have a certain level of success. However, McCoy's touches were limited last week because of the bakery of Nate Allen, Cary Williams, Pat Chung, and Bradley Fletcher, and a fast start by Chicago could repeat those results. The Bears also may get OLB Lance Briggs back to help Chicago defend the run.
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49ers over Falcons: This rematch of the NFC Championship is a little anti-climatic due to the poor quality of Atlanta's season, but this game is a big deal for San Francisco, and not just because Candlestick Park is closing. San Francisco is hanging on to the final Wild Card spot by a game, and while a Seattle loss to Arizona would help San Francisco's slim chances of winning the division, Arizona still has a chance to catch San Francisco in the Wild Card race. Only Seattle has a better opposing passer rating than San Francisco (73.5), and Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has been thoroughly ordinary since losing WR Julio Jones after Week 5 (12 TDs, 11 INTs, 81.9 passer rating in last nine games). Atlanta also has a bottom-five run defense, which is a problem against a San Francisco team that runs more than it passes. Atlanta also has the worst secondary in the league this side of Oakland – it would be a major shock if San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick doesn't have a big night.
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Candlestick Park Nostalgia
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