Week 3 in the NFL will feature the return of Andy Reid in Philadelphia, the home openers (finally) for Minnesota, Tennessee, and Miami, and Andrew Luck’s return to the Bay Area to face Jim Harbaugh’s team. Also, there are divisional games in the AFC East and AFC West.
At this point of the season, teams are either 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2. Green light, yellow light, red light. There is obvious concern about the red light teams (Browns, Steelers, Jaguars, Giants, Redskins, Vikings, Buccaneers, Panthers). The AFC teams need help from their below-average receivers; the Browns and Jaguars also have a mess at quarterback. The Steelers have won with their personnel, and their veteran head coach/QB/defense combo will give them a chance every week, but the lack of playmaking on both sides of the ball is a problem. The Giants are the anti-Steelers; they need to stop turning the ball over. The Vikings and Redskins have annoying quarterback controversies, but their defenses are the real problems. The Buccaneers and Panthers would be 2-0 if they knew how to play in the fourth quarter.
Check this out if you missed my Observations from Week 2.
THE GAMEPLAN for WEEK 3
2013 Week 3 NFL picks (13-3 in Week 2, +16 for 2013): KC, HOU, CIN, NYG, DAL, MIN, NE, NO, TEN, WAS, MIA, NYJ, SF, SEA, PIT, DEN
— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) September 19, 2013
Chiefs over Eagles – The Andy Reid Bowl is on Thursday Night Football, and I believe this benefits the Chiefs’ on both sides of the ball. Teams rarely are sharp offensively on Thursday Night Football following a Sunday game -only five out of 28 teams scored at least 30 points on Thursday Night Football last year, and that doesn’t include last week’s AFC East mud run. The schedule might slow down Eagles head coach Chip Kelly’s offense. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia defense has been deplorable. The Chiefs should feature RB Jamaal Charles, bleed clock, and watch the Eagles miss countless fourth quarter tackles. I’d comment on Andy Reid’s clock management (dis)abilities, but Kelly showed he’s not an upgrade in that department.
Texans over Ravens – The Ed Reed Bowl! Reed hasn’t played in the Texans’ first two games of the season, but it is hard to imagine him sitting out if he is even questionable to play. His presence (if healthy) would bolster a Texans’ secondary that should already have an advantage over a nondescript group of Baltimore WRs and TEs. The Texans are fairly unforgiving against the run, and this is probably not the week that Ray Rice (hip) and/or Bernard Pierce blow up. Texans LT Duane Brown is probably out for this game, but the Ravens secondary can be had; Reed’s replacement, Michael Huff, has already been benched. Texans QB Matt Schaub should feature TEs Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham prominently, especially in the red zone. The Texans aren’t going to want to be in comeback mode this week. Ravens OLBs Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil don’t need extra pass rush opportunities against the Houston offensive line.
Bengals over Packers – The last time Packers QB Aaron Rodgers faced the Bengals, DE Antwan Odom sacked him five times in 2009. The Green Bay offensive line isn’t much better, but the Cincinnati defensive line certainly is. Rodgers will get his yards and a couple of TDs, but it might be a long day for him if he has to drop back over 40 times; the Bengals won’t be allowing much on the ground. As with every week, Bengals QB Andy Dalton needs to take care of the ball and find guys other than WR A.J. Green (who has a great matchup). The Bengals need to aim for 30+ touches for RBs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and rookie Giovani Bernard in an effort to keep Rodgers off the field.
Giants over Panthers – Last year in Carolina, these two teams played in Week 3 on Thursday Night Football, and the 36-7 Giants win was probably Panthers QB Cam Newton’s nadir period at this stage of his career. Both teams are 0-2, but Panthers head coach Ron Rivera is on a hotter seat due to repeated slow starts and losses in close games fueled by frustrating displays of conservatism. The Panthers’ secondary has broken two games in a row against suspect pass offenses; they now get to defend Giants QB Eli Manning and WR Victor Cruz. The Giants need to get RB David Wilson going, and Manning can’t keep throwing INTs. Another key matchup is how the Giants will defend Newton. The Panthers offensive line is poor, but there are points available on every down against the Giants. This game shouldn’t be a laugher, but it is hard to imagine the Carolina secondary giving the Panthers a chance to win this game.
Cowboys over Rams – The Rams have a lot of weapons between WR Tavon Austin and TE Jared Cook, and they should spread the Cowboys out and test the deep seams. This would be easier to sell if Rams QB Sam Bradford was interested in throwing more than ten yards down the field, but I digress. Rams DE Chris Long has an excellent matchup opposite Cowboys RT Doug Free, and the Cowboys’ refusal to run the ball won’t help. But when Cowboys QB Tony Romo isn’t running for his life, he should find good things down the field and to TE Jason Witten; the Rams’ safeties are unproven. Dallas also might want to give RB DeMarco Murray the ball and see if he can get even half of what he had two years ago against the Rams (253 rushing yards on 25 carries, one 91-yard TD run).
Vikings over Browns – The last time Vikings RB Adrian Peterson faced the Browns, he obliterated their 3-4 defense for 180 rushing yards and three TDs in 2009. That would be even more impressive this time around, as the Cleveland front seven completely shut down Lamar Miller and Ray Rice. The Vikings need QB Christian Ponder to play well in the home opener and take advantage of the Browns’ extra attention on Peterson. If the Vikings get lit up by Browns backup QB Brian Hoyer (who will have WR Josh Gordon back from suspension), their problems may be unsalvageable this season. Minnesota needs to show something defensively, and not let Browns RB Trent Richardson get going. Oh wait, Richardson’s been traded because he doesn’t fit the Browns’ offense and is being replaced by Willis McGahee? Minnesota’s defense has no excuses Sunday.
Patriots over Buccaneers – Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman made his NFL debut against the Patriots in 2009, coming in off the bench at the end of a blowout Patriots victory in London. A poor early performance by Freeman could land him on the bench before the end of this one, but one of his WRs (most likely Mike Williams) should have a big day. I expect the Patriots to overdo it and put the clamps on Buccaneers WR Vincent Jackson. Buccaneers RB Doug Martin should also be featured prominently. The Patriots have had ten days to prepare for a team that they spent the summer scrimmaging and playing in the preseason. It’s a shame that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski won’t be available, because Tampa Bay refuses to defend TEs. But they also refuse to defend anybody in the middle of the field. Their coverage specialty is deep and to the outside. Patriots QB Tom Brady rarely throws deep and outside; expect WR Julian Edelman to be heavily targeted while Brady looks to keep his mistakes to a minimum and somehow keep his TD streak alive despite the unreliability from his backs and receivers.
Saints over Cardinals – Cardinals QB Carson Palmer was intercepted twice in Oakland while facing the Saints defense, and other than better WRs in Arizona, he won’t have much more of an advantage this year than he had last year. The Saints have been solid defensively so far under defensive coordinator Rob Ryan allowing only three TDs. Palmer doesn’t take many sacks, but INTs will be available. Saints QB Drew Brees will be targeting TE Jimmy Graham often, and the Cardinals will have to defend him better than they did Rams TE Jared Cook in Week 1.
Titans over Chargers – Chargers QB Philip Rivers has already thrown seven TD passes, and the Titans aren’t the best pass defense around (see: Matt Schaub). The Titans will be hyper-aggressive defensively in their first home game, and they will look to force Rivers into mistakes. The Titans aren’t going to let QB Jake Locker throw any more than necessary, but they’ll have to slightly adjust that this week, as the Chargers can’t really stop anybody from moving the ball via the pass. The Titans need to move the chains to complement their run-heavy approach, and WR Nate Washington might be the best bet to come through for Locker.
Redskins over Lions – The Redskins moved to Washington, D.C. in 1937. They have hosted the Detroit Lions there 21 times. Washington has won every time. However, Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz has never lost against Washington (2-0). Something’s got to give. Lions WR Calvin Johnson torched the Redskins back in 2010 (three TDs), and there’s no reason to think that the Redskins will have a clue this time around. Even if Lions RB Reggie Bush is limited, the Lions can get decent production from RB Joique Bell. Washington’s only chance defensively is to force some turnovers and to maybe triple-team Megatron. The Redskins need to keep it on the ground early and give RB Alfred Morris a chance to be a factor. The Lions are at their best defensively when their linemen don’t have to worry about the run. If the Redskins start getting blown out early, Redskins QB Robert Griffin III will be in a world of hurt.
Dolphins over Falcons – Falcons WR Julio Jones and TE Tony Gonzalez have good matchups in this game, and WR Roddy White will most likely do his decoy act despite a high ankle sprain. Other than that, Miami’s front seven is going to have a big day against the Falcons’ questionable offensive line and backfield. Falcons RBs Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling are going to have to fill the void left by RB Steven Jackson’s quad injury, and they won’t prevent Falcons QB Matt Ryan from throwing 40-50 times. Atlanta is also thinning out in their front seven. This is a good time for RB Lamar Miller to run away with the feature back role in Miami. The Falcons lost key defenders OLB Sean Weatherspoon and DE Kroy Biermann, and Atlanta already lacked depth in the front seven.
Jets over Bills – A matchup between the top two QBs selected in the draft! Of course, last year the top two QBs were also the top two overall picks in the draft, Andrew Luck and RGIII. This year, Bills QB EJ Manuel was the only first round QB (16th overall), while Jets QB Geno Smith was the only second round QB. Preseason injuries to Bills QB Kevin Kolb (concussion) and Jets QB Mark Sanchez (shoulder) opened the door for Manuel and Smith. They’re both backed up by undrafted free agents who came close to seeing the field (Bills QB Jeff Tuel, Jets QB Matt Simms). Both picked up penalty-aided game-winning drives against NFC South teams. Both lost close games to the Patriots. This is also the Matt Pettine Bowl (former Jets defensive coordinator who holds same position now with the Bills)! The Jets don’t have much of a pass rush, and Buffalo should be able to utilize RBs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson to move the ball. The Jets are going to try and do the same thing – give RBs Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell a chance to be the featured options for a Jets team that doesn’t need to be passing too much. This is Manuel’s first road game, and Rex Ryan still coaches a tough defense. There will be a lot of field goals in this game.
49ers over Colts – I’m not sure if new Colts RB Trent Richardson will be active this week, but he might want to take a week off to get adjusted to Indianapolis. The 49ers front seven is going to be a serious problem for Indy’s offensive line. Colts QB Andrew Luck will have some enticing options when he has time to throw, as the 49ers CBs are burnable (especially Nnamdi Asomugha). This game should serve as a bounce-back opportunity for 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Frank Gore. The Indianapolis defense had a lot of trouble with Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor, and Kaepernick is a way better passer and decision-maker than his Bay Area counterpart. 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh should win the Stanford Bowl; he’s never lost consecutive games as 49ers head coach.
Seahawks over Jaguars – This game is the Gus Bradley Bowl, as the Jaguars will play their second straight game in the Pacific Time Zone. Even though Jaguars head coach Bradley knows Seattle’s scheme, this one could get ugly. The Jaguars have only scored 11 points, while the Seahawks have only allowed 10 points. There is shutout potential here, as the Jaguars are going to CenturyLink Field with a roster incapable of protecting the QB, moving the ball downfield (with injured QB Blaine Gabbert or healthy starter QB Chad Henne), or running effectively (with or without hobbled RB Maurice Jones-Drew). This is an opportunity for the Seahawks to get their offense going, though the absence of LT Russell Okung (toe) suggests that the Seahawks won’t shy too far from running the ball.
Steelers over Bears – The Steelers haven’t started 0-3 since 2000. The new Bears offensive line has been great, but the Steelers have one of the toughest home crowds in the NFL. Bears RB Matt Forte, WR Brandon Marshall, and TE Martellus Bennett will be challenged by CB Ike Taylor, ILB Lawrence Timmons, and SS Troy Polamalu. If the Bears can crack the Steelers’ defense on the road, they’re on to something special. I don’t expect the Steelers to get much movement either offensively, but I do expect QB Ben Roethlisberger to protect the football against the notorious Chicago ballhawks. Bears QB Jay Cutler is a gunslinger who will force the ball. This game will come down to the team with the most discipline.
Broncos over Raiders – Like Jaguars/Seahawks, Raiders/Broncos features a team with extremely low expectations led by a head coach who served as the opponent’s defensive coordinator going on the road to face a team with Super Bowl aspirations. The Broncos are a disciplined team up front with athleticism at LB, and have no reason to fear the Oakland receivers. The Raiders have gotten home with their DB blitzes, and they should be able to stop the run. But the motley crew that consists of the Oakland secondary is a long shot to slow Broncos WRs Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker, not to mention TE Julius Thomas. The Broncos are now down their projected starting C (J.D. Walton) and LT (Ryan Clady), but Broncos QB Peyton Manning should be able to operate against the Raiders at home.
-1SKILLZ