Week 2 in the NFL featured almost as many close games as Week 1. Whereas Week 1 went 12 of 16 in games decided by seven points or less, Week 2 went 10 of 16. I had a 13-3 record in Week 2, missing on the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints. Mind you, those three teams won by a combined ten points and all of them benefited from missed field goals. I only bring that up to say that you should pay attention to the Gameplan!
2013 Week 2 NFL picks (11-5 in Week 1, +6 in 2013): NE, ATL, BAL, BUF, CHI, GB, HOU, IND, KC, PHI, ARI, TB, DEN, OAK, SEA, CIN
— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) September 12, 2013
Patriots 13, Jets 10 – I said this game was going to be a slobfest, and that’s what it was. Both teams combined to punt 20 times. The Patriots only gained 232 yards of total offense, but they didn’t turn the ball over. Jets QB Geno Smith completed 15 of 35 passes for 214 yards, no TDs, and three fourth quarter INTs. Jets WR Stephen Hill also lost a fumble that set up a Patriots FG in the first quarter. New England isn’t even pretending to throw to the TE (no receptions in this game), and the outside receivers (Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson) have a lot of work to do. Patriots QB Tom Brady (19/39 for 185 passing yards, one TD) found Dobson for a 39-yard touchdown, but that was the only positive play for the rookie, as he spent the rest of the night dropping passes and botching routes. A good QB can get guys lined up, get them the ball accurately and on time, and give them an opportunity to make plays. A good QB can’t always make up for poor routes, bad hands, and a lack of physical talent. Right now, the only receiver Brady can trust is WR Julian Edelman, and he’s not a big play threat (78 yards on 13 catches). But the Patriots got two sacks from DE Chandler Jones and two INTs from CB Aqib Talib, and their defense is good enough to give them a chance to win. The last time the Patriots won with 13 or fewer points with Brady as the starter was in 2004 against the Jets – the last season in which the Patriots won the Super Bowl.
Falcons 31, Rams 24 – Falcons RB Steven Jackson caught an eight-yard TD pass in the first quarter, then left the Steven Jackson Bowl with a quad injury that will cost him a good chunk of time (RE: the cliff approaches). Falcons QB Matt Ryan completed 33 of 43 passes for 374 yards, two TDs, and no INTs, with his biggest play being an 81-yard TD pass to WR Julio Jones (182 yards on 11 catches, one TD). Rams QB Sam Bradford bounced back from a pick-six by completing 32 of 55 passes for 352 passing yards, three TDs (two to rookie WR Tavon Austin), and the INT that bounced off of RB Daryl Richardson into DE Osi Umenyiora. As you might have guessed, neither team ran the ball well at all (Falcons: 36 yards on 16 carries, one TD by RB Jason Snelling; Rams: 69 yards on 18 carries). The Falcons only forced one turnover and didn’t sack Bradford despite 55 pass attempts, but they completely shut down Rams TE Jared Cook (10 yards on one reception). Instead, Bradford found WR Chris Givens (105 yards on five catches), Austin (47 yards on six catches, two TDs), and WR Austin Pettis (78 yards on eight catches, one TD). Ryan is going to be under a lot of pressure without a semblance of a run game.
Bills 24, Panthers 23 – The Gameplan called for the Bills to keep things under control for rookie QB EJ Manuel, because they would have a chance to win this game. I cited the Carolina pass defense as a vulnerable spot that the Bills could take advantage of. Verily, verily. Manuel (27/39, 296 pass yards, one TD, one INT) bounced back from consecutive turnovers to lead a game-winning drive culminating in a touchdown pass to WR Stevie Johnson (111 yards on eight catches, including the two-yard TD). Manuel didn’t have a timeout when the Bills took over on their own 20 yard line, down 23-17 with 1:38 left in the game. Manuel picked up three first downs passing, and a 20-yard pass interference penalty by Panthers ILB Luke Kuechly negated an interception. The game-winning touchdown was made possible by Carolina’s confusion in their slot coverage, allowing Johnson to sneak to the corner of the end zone. The Panthers’ offensive line had no answer for DE Mario Williams (4.5 sacks). Panthers head coach Ron Rivera decided to pass up 4th-and-1 on the Bills’ 21 yard line with the Bills out of timeouts and 1:42 left in the game to kick a FG. Again, despite the presence of QB Cam Newton, RB DeAngelo Williams, and FB Mike Tolbert. Gain a yard, and the game is over! Play to win, not to “not lose”! And you wonder why that team is 2-14 in games decided by 7 points or less since 2011.
Bears 31, Vikings 30 – Bears TE Martellus Bennett has provided the best upgrade at the TE position for any team in the NFL. He caught two TDs in this game, his last one providing the game-winner from 16 yards out. Bennett already has more TDs this season (three) than last year’s starter Kellen Davis had all of last season (two). The Vikings are getting slayed by receiving backs. A week after giving up 191 total yards to Lions RB Reggie Bush, the Vikings gave up 161 total yards to Bears RB Matt Forte. Even with the success of Forte and Bennett, Bears QB Jay Cutler (28/39, 290 pass yards, three TDs, two INTs) still found WR Brandon Marshall for 113 yards on seven catches. The Bears also allowed only one sack, although Cutler lost a fumble on that sack that was returned for a TD. Like last week, RB Adrian Peterson (100 yards on 26 carries) had one big run (36 yards) and a lot of struggle runs (2.6 yards per carry on other 25 attempts). Peterson’s big run came after Vikings QB Christian Ponder tossed a pick-six to CB Tim Jennings, allowing Ponder to get his act together and throw a TD pass to TE Kyle Rudolph. Ponder continues to be inconsistent (16/30, 227 yards, one TD, one INT), but he’s not the main problem in Minnesota right now. Matt Cassel isn’t going to make that defense defend the pass better.
Dolphins 24, Colts 20 – The Colts benefited from a missed FG in the first half in Week 1; they were hurt by a missed FG in the first half against the Dolphins. Needing a fourth quarter TD to take the lead, Colts QB Andrew Luck (25/43, 321 pass yards, one TD, one INT, 38 rushing yards) threw an INT in the end zone to kill one fourth quarter drive in Miami territory, then was sacked on 4th down at the Miami 23 inside of two minutes. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill (23/34, 319 pass yards, one TD, no INTs) was under constant duress (five sacks, one lost fumble), but supported two 100+-yard receivers in WR Mike Wallace (115 yards on nine catches, one TD) and TE Charles Clay (105 yards on five catches, one rushing TD). Unlike Week 1, Tannehill had support from RB Lamar Miller (69 yards on 14 carries, one TD).
Packers 38, Redskins 20 – Packers QB Aaron Rodgers destroyed the Redskins’ secondary, completing 34 of 42 passes for 480 yards, four TDs, and no turnovers. Packers WR James Jones racked up 178 receiving yards on 11 catches, and he came close to adding a TD (he lost a fumble reaching for the pylon at the end of the first half). Packers WR Randall Cobb had 128 receiving yards on nine catches, including a fourth-down 35-yard TD catch. WR Jordy Nelson had two TDs, and TE Jermichael Finley had one. Packers RB James Starks had 132 rushing yards on 20 carries and one TD, marking the first time that the Packers had a 100-yard rusher since 2010 (…when they last played the Redskins). Like the Vikings, the Redskins are not going to improve defensively by playing their backup quarterback. Redskins QB Robert Griffin III is putting up garbage stats numbers after his team faced deficits of 33-7 (vs. Philadelphia) and 31-0 (at Green Bay). If he isn’t healthy enough to play, then he shouldn’t. Even if he is, the Redskins’ biggest problem isn’t his diminished ability to throw or run effectively. It’s their inability to stop anybody before halftime.
Texans 30, Titans 24 – Texans QB Matt Schaub had more INTs in this game (two) than his previous seven starts against Tennessee combined (one). Schaub (26/48, 298 yards, three TDs, two INTs) had to bring the Texans back from a 24-16 fourth quarter deficit created in part by a pick-six. The Texans also had to overcome three missed FGs by K Randy Bullock. First-round pick DeAndre Hopkins made up for the miscommunication on Schaub’s pick-six by racking up 117 yards on seven catches, including the game-winning TD in overtime. Against a lesser offense, the Titans’ ground-and-pound approach may have been enough considering they had touchdown drives of 80 and 99 yards. Unfortunately, their inability to pick up first downs (six three-and-out punts and a safety allowed in the second half) gave the Texans too many chances to exploit Tennessee’s pass defense.
Chiefs 17, Cowboys 16 – The Gameplan suggested that the Chiefs were going to keep mistakes to a minimum offensively and dominate the Cowboys’ run-averse offensive line defensively. Verily, verily. The Chiefs were the anti-Giants, doing nothing spectacular offensively but doing so without turning the ball over. Meanwhile, the Cowboys passed almost three times more than they ran (42 pass attempts, three sacks allowed, 16 rushing attempts). The Cowboys don’t give RB DeMarco Murray the ball enough (25 yards on 12 carries), don’t have a FB on the roster, and don’t utilize a backup (RB Lance Dunbar totaled 16 yards on two touches, and lost a fumble at the end of a reception). Meanwhile, Chiefs NT Dontari Poe dominated rookie Cowboys C Travis Frederick for two sacks.
Chargers 33, Eagles 30 – Chargers QB Philip Rivers embarrassed the Philadelphia secondary, completing 36 of 47 passes for 419 yards, three TDs, and no turnovers. Rivers’ day may have been even bigger if RB Ryan Mathews and TE Antonio Gates (124 yards on eight catches) didn’t lose first half fumbles inside the ten. All of Rivers’ TDs went to WR Eddie Royal, who now has as many TDs this season (five) as the previous four seasons combined. WR Malcom Floyd also racked up 105 yards on five catches before leaving with a neck injury. Philadelphia knows the secondary is dreadful, yet head coach Chip Kelly mismanaged the game at the end, leaving too much time on the clock for Rivers to show Kelly how to properly close a game out. A difference in this game was that Chargers K Nick Novak made his end of half FG, while Eagles K Alex Henery missed his right before halftime. Eagles QB Michael Vick completed 23 of 36 passes for a career-high 436 yards, two TDs, and no INTs, adding 23 yards and a TD on the ground. Vick’s day could have been even bigger if not for dropped TDs by TE James Casey and WR DeSean Jackson. Jackson still had time to filet San Diego’s CBs (193 yards on nine catches, including a 61-yard TD), while RB LeSean McCoy had 53 yards rushing and 114 yards receiving (167 total). This was a great win for the Chargers after the MNF loss, as they ran the ball well (126 yards on 31 attempts) and allowed only one sack.
Ravens 14, Browns 6 – The Ravens defense didn’t allow the Browns to get going, holding them out of the end zone and shutting them out after halftime. The Ravens’ front seven was dominant, holding Browns RB Trent Richardson to 58 yards on 18 carries while sacking Browns QB Brandon Weeden five times. The Ravens had to overcome brutal days from RB Ray Rice (36 yards on 13 carries, one lost fumble, hip injury) and K Justin Tucker (two missed FGs in the first half).
Cardinals 25, Lions 21 – The Cardinals lost WR Larry Fitzgerald (33 yards on two catches) to a hamstring injury, they struggled to run the ball (87 yards on 25 attempts, one TD), and QB Carson Palmer (22/39, 248 pass yards, one TD, one INT) was pick-sixed by Lions OLB DeAndre Levy. They still won the game, aided by four FGs by K Jay Feely and a 31-yard pass interference penalty on Lions CB Bill Bentley that set up Cardinals RB Rashard Mendenhall for a one-yard go-ahead TD run. The Cardinals allowed only one sack, and they got tricky contributions from CB Patrick Peterson (17-yard reception, completed a 17-yard pass). Lions WR Calvin Johnson (116 yards on six catches) scored two first half TDs, but the Lions’ offense struggled in the second half (lost fumble, three three-and-out punts, game-sealing turnover on downs). The Lions (like the Cardinals) don’t feature a FB, and RB Reggie Bush struggled with injury. The result was a paltry 49 rushing yards on 20 attempts.
Saints 16, Buccaneers 14 – Another week, another last-minute win for the Saints. Another week, another last minute loss for the Buccaneers. The Saints could easily be 0-2, and the Buccaneers could easily be 2-0. But the Saints made the plays necessary to win (walk-off game-winning FG by K Garrett Hartley, set up by Saints QB Drew Brees’ 31-yard pass to WR Marques Colston with no timeouts). The Buccaneers missed a 47-yard FG after draining the clock (a debatable decision, since the Buccaneers had 4th-and-3 on the New Orleans 29) and failed to stop the Saints on their final drive, wasting a day in which they forced Brees into multiple mistakes, including an 85-yard INT return for a TD in the fourth quarter by ILB Mason Foster. The Buccaneers have chemistry issues, none of which were extinguished by QB Josh Freeman’s performance (9/22, 125 pass yards, one TD, one brutal INT) or the team’s discipline (Ten penalties, 118 yards). The Buccaneers also had no answer for Saints TE Jimmy Graham (179 yards on ten catches, including a 56-yard TD). Tampa Bay did get a big game from RB Doug Martin (144 yards on 28 carries, bolstered by the return of FB Erik Lorig), and they didn’t allow the Saints to do much running the ball (75 yards on 20 carries). The Buccaneers had a chance to win; they just failed to execute.
Raiders 19, Jaguars 9 – The great thing about mobile QBs is that they can a) extend passing plays, especially behind leaky offensive lines, b) turn bad passing plays into positive rushing gains, and c) open up rushing lanes for running backs. Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor (15/24, 129 pass yards, no TDs, no INTs, 50 rushing yards) didn’t do much as a passer, but his threat allowed RB Darren McFadden to run for his most yardage in almost two years (129 yards on 19 carries, one lost fumble), while FB Marcel Reece scored his first non-goal line rushing TD of his career (11 yards). Conversely, Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew may never want to play in Oakland again. Last year he suffered a season-ending foot injury in Oakland, and Sunday he was ineffective (27 yards on 10 carries) before leaving with an ankle injury. The Jaguars had only 34 yards rushing on 19 attempts and allowed five sacks (three by blitzing defensive backs). Jacksonville has scored one safety, one field goal, and one touchdown (failed two point conversion) this season against teams that went a combined 6-26 last season. Injuries/suspension at QB, RB, WR, and TE don’t help, but the Jaguars offense is looking extremely woeful at this point, and the offensive line is the unit that needs to show the most improvement.
Broncos 41, Giants 23 – The Broncos scored seven times again – they just diversified the channel. Instead of seven TD passes by QB Peyton Manning, Denver got two TD passes, two TD runs by RB Knowshon Moreno, one punt return TD by Trindon Holliday, and two FGs. Peyton Manning completed 30 out of 43 passes for 307 yards, TD throws to WR Wes Welker and TE Julius Thomas, and no INTs. Moreno (93 rushing yards on 13 carries, two TDs 14 receiving yards on three catches) should lock up the feature job; RB Ronnie Hillman only touched the ball once for three yards, while rookie RB Montee Ball lost a fumble on the goal line and was otherwise ineffective (16 yards on 12 carries). Other than a goal-line TD by RB Brandon Jacobs (on his third try), the Giants got nothing from the run game (23 yards on 19 attempts, one TD). Giants QB Eli Manning (28/49, 362 yards, one TD, four INTs) moved the ball, but snowballed in the fourth quarter when he threw three of his INTs. That’s when an eight-point game became a blowout. The Giants might have the most anonymous group of LBs in the NFL (Jacquian Williams, Mark Herzlich, Spencer Paysinger), the pass rush is nonexistent (no sacks in this game), and there is a shortage of reliable defensive backs. Even the special teams unit has been critically mistake-prone. The Giants aren’t balanced enough as a team to overcome an avalanche of turnovers.
Seahawks 29, 49ers 3 – In case there was any doubt about the Seahawks’ pass defense, Seattle went out and put the entire 49ers pass offense through the Legion of Boom torture chamber. 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick never had a multi-INT game or a start in which he completed less than half of his passes; he went 13 of 28 for 127 yards, no TDs, and three INTs (FS Earl Thomas in the red zone, CB Richard Sherman covering TE Vernon Davis, and SS Kam Chancellor just hanging out). Davis (20 yards on three catches) and WR Anquan Boldin (seven yards on one catch) were completely eliminated. There was nothing efficient about Seattle’s offense; QB Russell Wilson also completed less than half of his passes (8/19, 142 yards, one TD, one INT), no WR caught more than one pass, Wilson was sacked four times, and RB Marshawn Lynch gained only 3.5 yards per carry. But Lynch had 31 total touches for 135 yards and three TDs (two rushing, one receiving), and the Seahawks as a team ran for 172 yards on 47 attempts. The Seahawks made the 49ers tap out of this one – victory by submission.
Bengals 20, Steelers 10 – You won’t believe this, but the Steelers struggled to move the football Monday Night in Cincinnati, particularly on the ground (44 yards rushing on 16 attempts). Bengals QB Andy Dalton (25/45 for 280 pass yards, one TD, no INTs) was shaky with his accuracy, but he didn’t take a sack and the Bengals didn’t turn the ball over. Rookie playmakers TE Tyler Eifert (61-yard reception to set up Bengals first TD) and RB Giovani Bernard (one rushing TD, one receiving TD) made plays in the middle of the field, and that’s something the Steelers don’t have right now. None of their backs are sustainably effective ballcarriers, and Roethlisberger (20/37, 251 pass yards, one TD, one INT) hasn’t had a TE situation this dry since his rookie season (the year before Heath Miller was drafted).
-1SKILLZ