2013 NFL Week 5 Gameplan

Salutations. We have reached the quarter mark in the NFL, and so before I go into this week’s gameplan, I’ll look at all 32 teams and give a two-sentence drop on where each team is at. I’ll base this heavily from the Hypothesis Report, but I’ll fit the Week 4 results into that second sentence. Keep in mind, only 25% of the season has passed – if we knew nothing about these teams when the season started, I doubt we know much more now. Keep in mind, the 2012 Arizona Cardinals started 4-0 and the 2012 Philadelphia Eagles started 3-1. Those teams wound up being the two worst in the NFC! That said, we know enough to bury the 2012 season though. Let’s just call this a “Big Picture Observations” segment:

2013 NFL Week 4 picks (10-6 in Week 3, +20 in 2013): SF, BAL, CIN, DET, HOU, IND, NYG, MIN, TB, TEN, DEN, WAS, DAL, NE, MIA

— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) September 26, 2013

Packers (1-2, Bye Week), Panthers (1-2, Bye Week) – Green Bay started 1-2 last year as well, but their offense is going to be fine, especially considering the fact that they finally had backs rush for over 100 yards (James Starks vs. WAS, Johnathan Franklin @ CIN). The Packers still have a poor defense though, and they need healthy returns from FS Morgan Burnett and CB Casey Heyward, as passers have torched them for 993 passing yards and eight TDs through three games. I’m not the biggest Ron Rivera fan, but Carolina’s 38-0 win over the Giants, their first shutout in five years, was shocking. The jury is still out on their secondary due to the severe lack of depth and talent, and they have allowed two critical go-ahead TD passes in their losses, but they completely shut down Eli Manning and his group of receivers.

49ers 35, Rams 11 – The 2-2 49ers are at their best when they’re running the ball – 2-0 when RB Frank Gore gets his 20 carries, 0-2 when he doesn’t. The strength of the defense is the front seven, but they’ll be tested with NT Ian Williams out for the season, OLB Aldon Smith out indefinitely, and ILB Patrick Willis dealing with an injury. The 1-3 Rams are on pace to have QB Sam Bradford pull a Matthew Stafford – 700+ pass attempts for a 4-12 team. The entire team has regressed, from the run game (73 attempts, 2.6 yards per attempt, no TDs) to the defense (30+ points allowed in three straight games, first time since 2009 Rams).

Bills 23, Ravens 20 – It’s not showing up due to RB C.J. Spiller’s struggles (3.5 yards per carry, three fumbles, no TDs) and rookie QB EJ Manuel’s rawness, but the 2-2 Bills have been hellbent on running the football, leading the NFL in rushing attempts through four weeks (including 55 attempts for 203 yards against the Ravens). Credit the Bills defense for the pressure (vs. Carolina) and forced turnovers (vs. Baltimore), but the secondary still could use FS Jairus Byrd and CB Stephon Gilmore, as AFC East QBs have shredded them in the fourth quarter. The 2-2 Ravens have two good home wins where they haven’t allowed a TD, but the defense has been thrashed by the pass (RE: 7 TD passes) and the run (see Buffalo). Baltimore needs to get the run game going as well (only 2.6 yards per carry), especially with the lack of reliability in the Baltimore receiving corps bringing out the worst in QB Joe Flacco (five TDs, seven INTs).

Browns 17, Bengals 6 – The 2-2 Browns are 2-0 since trading Trent Richardson (who was averaging 3.4 yards per carry) and signing RB Willis McGahee (who is averaging 2.4 yards per carry). Cleveland QB Brian Hoyer, filling in for injured/benched QB Brandon Weeden, has done a solid job getting the ball to TE Jordan Cameron and WR Josh Gordon, and the Browns are 3rd in the league in yardage allowed. The 2-2 Bengals are another team that looks good at home and lost on the road so far. Eventually, Cincinnati will realize the talent gap between RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (2.7 yards per carry on 52 attempts) and rookie RB Giovani Bernard (4.6 yards per carry on 32 attempts) and adjust accordingly.

Lions 40, Bears 32 – The 3-1 Lions are getting a lot out of RB Reggie Bush (5.3 yards per carry), and they have been smart to include RB Joique Bell in the offense (Bush/Bell have 386 receiving yards on 29 catches). QB Matthew Stafford has been sharper as well (64% completions), and he’s only been sacked three times despite attempting 156 passes. The 3-1 Bears have been better on offense as QB Jay Cutler is on pace for a 30-TD, 4,000-yard season. But it’s been ten years since the Bears have allowed 20+ points in four straight games, and DT Henry Melton (ACL) is out for the season.

Seahawks 23, Texans 20 – The 4-0 Seahawks have been opposing passers’ worst nightmare, allowing a 60.7 passer rating through four games. The Seahawks rank dead last in pass attempts, just like last season – they’re a smashmouth team that asks QB Russell Wilson to be efficient (95.3 passer rating). Give the 2-2 Texans credit for coming back against San Diego and Tennessee. QB Matt Schaub has to stop throwing backbreaking INTs like the one he served up to Richard Sherman, but he could use some help from RB Arian Foster (3.8 yards per carry, only one TD on 76 carries).

Colts 37, Jaguars 3 – The 3-1 Colts may have overvalued RB Trent Richardson, but the attitude shift towards being a more balanced, physical team on the ground has been established – the Colts are a top-five rushing team. On a related rant, people need to stop being surprised about QB Andrew Luck’s running ability, as he is a top-ten running QB. The 0-4 Jaguars have scored three TDs all season, none of them within a 16-point deficit. They have allowed 18 sacks, gained 2.3 yards per carry, and QB Blaine Gabbert has thrown as many INTs (five) as the Jaguars have total points in his two starts.

Chiefs 31, Giants 7 – The 4-0 Chiefs have allowed the fewest points in the league, RB Jamaal Charles is on pace for 2,000 yards from scrimmage, and QB Alex Smith is on pace to throw 20+ TDs for the first time in his career; Smith also ranks third in the NFL in QB rushing yards. A year after ranking 31st in turnover differential, the Chiefs have the top ranking for now. The 0-4 Giants are getting their defensive meltdown out of the way early, allowing 31+ points in every game this season and recording only four sacks. QB Eli Manning leads the league in INTs (9), but he is also getting sacked more than ever, going down 14 times.

Vikings 34, Steelers 27 – The 1-3 Vikings continue to ask RB Adrian Peterson to put in heavy work; he has 92 carries for 421 yards, 4.6 yards per carry, and five TDs. All other Vikings RBs (Toby Gerhart) have one carry. The 0-4 Steelers have gotten off to the worst start of all the teams I had making the playoffs. It can get worse, as it is hard to see QB Ben Roethlisberger making it through the 60-sack season he is on pace for, and the turnover-challenged defense (zero forced in four games) has only lost one member due to injury (ILB Larry Foote).

Cardinals 13, Buccaneers 10 – The 2-2 Cardinals have done a solid job against the run, allowing only one TD and 3.0 yards per carry. New QB Carson Palmer (69.8 passer rating) is off to another terrible 4,000-yard season, while new RB Rashard Mendenhall (3.4 yards per carry, one TD, two fumbles) has also been unimpressive. The 0-4 Buccaneers became the first team to release their first-round QB (Josh Freeman) since the Raiders released JaMarcus Russell. Freeman had a terrible start to the season, but the same can be said for Tampa Bay’s offense (rookie QB Mike Glennon will have the same issues in the 31st-ranked unit that Freeman had) and late-game execution (Buccaneers have already blown three fourth quarter leads).

Titans 38, Jets 13 – The 3-1 Titans are going to have to rely on backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick for a month after Jake Locker (6 TDs, zero INTs) went down with a hip injury. Tennessee has taken an extremely run-heavy approach this season to complement an aggressive top-ten defense (14 sacks), and while the effectiveness hasn’t been there in the running game (RB Chris Johnson has zero TDs and only 3.3 yards per carry on his 84 attempts), the turnovers haven’t been either (none so far). The 2-2 Jets are allowing the 2nd-fewest yards in the league defensively, but the lack of turnovers (only one INT) is a problem. Rookie QB Geno Smith is on pace for a 4,000-yard season, but he has also thrown eight INTs, taken 14 sacks, and has lost three fumbles.

Broncos 52, Eagles 20 – The 4-0 Broncos are going to get QB Peyton Manning (16 TDs, no INTs) some records. RB Knowshon Moreno is still splitting carries with Ronnie Hillman and rookie Montee Ball, but Moreno has been the best of the three with 5.3 yards per carry, three rushing TDs, and 308 yards from scrimmage. The 1-3 Eagles are still producing yards, and RB LeSean McCoy leads the NFL in rushing. But the defense is dead last in the league, and there’s a chance the secondary is even worse this season than last (107.2 opposing passer rating).

Redskins 24, Raiders 14 – The 1-3 Redskins are just one game back in the division, and although the Redskins’ defense is 31st in yards allowed, they have already piled up 15 sacks. RB Alfred Morris has still been effective (5.3 yards per carry), but the volume hasn’t been there yet for the Redskins offense, due in part to QB Robert Griffin III’s on-field recovery. The 1-3 Raiders did a good job shutting down the Jacksonville run game, and QB Terrelle Pryor was off to a decent start before suffering a concussion at Denver. Oakland has yet to intercept a pass this season, and is allowing a 72% completion rate.

Chargers 30, Cowboys 21 – Peyton Manning is off to a historic start to this season, but Chargers QB Philip Rivers (11 TDs, two INTs, 1199 passing yards, 74% completions, 118.8 passer rating) has been on a ridiculous tear as well, primarily targeting matchup-problems TE Antonio Gates and RB Danny Woodhead. The 2-2 Chargers still lack a respectable run game (RB Ryan Mathews is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry and has zero TDs on 65 attempts) and can’t stop the pass (eight TD passes allowed, only one INT). The 2-2 Cowboys continue to be an enigma. QB Tony Romo is off to a great start (eight TDs, one INT), but the Cowboys have already allowed 1,314 passing yards and ten TD passes.

Patriots 30, Falcons 23 – The 4-0 Patriots have only one rushing TD in 122 attempts, but they have relied on a different back in each game (injured Shane Vereen @ Buffalo, Stevan Ridley vs. Jets, Brandon Bolden vs. Tampa Bay, LeGarrette Blount @ Atlanta). The Patriots have made opposing passers look bad (70.1 opposing passer rating). The 1-3 Falcons shouldn’t panic, as QB Matt Ryan (8 TD passes, 1,330 passing yards) and WR Julio Jones (481 receiving yards on 33 catches) are playing at a high level. But the Falcons still can’t execute in the red zone (one of four teams under 40%) and are struggling to defend the pass, allowing nine TD passes and 8.1 yards per attempt.

Saints 38, Dolphins 17 – The 4-0 Saints might have the best team in the NFL, as they are ranked in the top ten offensively and defensively in both scoring and yardage. The Saints can run the ball or stop the run, but TE Jimmy Graham is off to a record-breaking start (458 receiving yards, six TDs) and DE Cameron Jordan (four sacks) and OLB Junior Galette (three sacks) lead a ferocious pass rush. The 3-1 Dolphins are getting a decent second season from QB Ryan Tannehill (66% completions, five TDs, five INTs, 1,076 passing yards, 7.6 yards per attempt), but the Dolphins don’t run enough and Miami has allowed the most sacks in the league (18). All eight TD passes allowed by Miami have been scored by backs and TEs.

And now, the GAMEPLAN for Week 4. The Steelers, Vikings, Redskins, and Buccaneers are all on the Bye. Pittsburgh has to figure out how they’re going to defend going forward, because zero turnovers is unacceptable. Minnesota has one injured QB (Christian Ponder) and a backup who will get some time to make people forget about his terrible 2012 season (Matt Cassel). The Redskins get a week to get RGIII healthy. The Buccaneers are hoping QB Josh Freeman doesn’t have the post-Buccaneer success of the other four Buccaneers 1st-round QBs (Doug Williams, Steve Young, Vinny Testaverde, Trent Dilfer):

2013 NFL Week 5 picks (8-7 in Week 4, +21 for 2013): CLE, CHI, NE, GB, SEA, BAL, NYG, STL, TEN, ARI, DEN, OAK, SF, ATL

— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) October 3, 2013

Browns over Bills: I’ll just share the pre-game tweet for this one.

#BUFvsCLE At least one team looks brutal offensively on Thursday Night Football. Browns are home and have 3rd best D. Long night for Manuel.

— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) October 3, 2013

Bears over Saints: Last time Saints QB Drew Brees played against the Bears, he hit them up for three TDs in the Superdome. Even though the game is at Chicago, Brees still figures to figures to lead the offense to a few scoring drives. The Bears have to do a better job against RB Darren Sproles than they did against Detroit RB Reggie Bush in Week 4. The Bears are going to challenge New Orleans with matchup problems Brandon Marshall, Martellus Bennett, Alshon Jeffrey, and Matt Forte, and if QB Jay Cutler can do a better job protecting the football, then Chicago should be able to keep Brees winless at Soldier Field.

Patriots over Bengals: It’s been awhile since the Patriots last played the Bengals (2010), and even longer since they played at Cincinnati (2007). It’s going to be tough for the Patriots to move the ball at Cincinnati, and QB Tom Brady’s TD streak will definitely be in jeopardy against a Bengals defense that made Super Bowl winning passers Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers look bad. Patriots CB Aqib Talib and Bengals WR A.J. Green will be the matchup of the game, and it will be interesting to see how the Patriots hold up without DT Vince Wilfork. The Bengals need to feature rookie RB Giovani Bernard over former Patriots RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis. I do see the Patriots forcing Bengals QB Andy Dalton into critical turnovers.

Packers over Lions: The Packers have beaten the Lions 14 out of the last 15 times, and haven’t lost to them at Lambeau Field since 1991. Of course, Detroit hadn’t beaten the Redskins in Washington until Week 3 this year. I like the matchups for Lions WR Calvin Johnson and RB Reggie Bush in this game, so the Packers are going to need to put up digits. Fact is, the Packers have had two weeks to get ready for this game, and the Packers haven’t lost a regular season home game after the bye week since 1991. I’d be surprised if QB Aaron Rodgers wasn’t sharp, though the Packers should lean on their rookie backs in this one.

Seahawks over Colts: The last time the Seahawks brought an undersized QB to Indianapolis, the 2009 Colts and Peyton Manning smashed Seneca Wallace and the 2009 Seahawks. The Seahawks also haven’t won back-to-back road games since 2007. This sets up another “prove-it” game for the 2013 Seahawks and undersized QB Russell Wilson. I like Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch in this game against the Indianapolis front seven. And I really like the hyperactive Seattle defense (matching up with whatever Indianapolis will try and do (Seahawks CB Richard Sherman might eliminate Colts WR Reggie Wayne).

Ravens over Dolphins: The Ravens have never lost to Miami under head coach John Harbaugh (3-0). The Dolphins are coming off of a short week. The Dolphins don’t defend TEs, but the Ravens can’t trust their TEs. The next best option is for RB Ray Rice to prove his health, and Baltimore’s acquisition of OT Eugene Monroe should help Rice and RB Bernard Pierce get going. It’s going to be a long day for Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill against Baltimore’s pass rush.

Giants over Eagles: The Giants were just smashed by the Eagles’ former head coach, Andy Reid. Philadelphia is going to put up gobs of yardage on the Giants’ defense – Eagles RB LeSean McCoy lights up the Giants every single year. We’ll know for sure if the Giants’ offense is truly irreparable if they can’t put up digits against the Eagles at home. These two teams are allowing the most points in the NFL, and I expect Giants QB Eli Manning to have a career day similar to the last time the Giants won a game (Week 17 at home versus Philadelphia, 42-17, five TD passes for Manning).

Rams over Jaguars: In 2009, Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew ran 33 times for 133 yards and three TDs in a win over the Rams. Jones-Drew has only 138 yards and one TD on 54 carries (2.4 yards a pop), his team just traded OT Eugene Monroe, and his QB, Blaine Gabbert, hasn’t led a touchdown drive since last November. These are the two worst rushing teams in the NFL, as the Rams also average less than three yards a carry. Even though Jaguars WR Justin Blackmon (who Rams head coach Jeff Fisher wanted in Saint Louis) is back from suspension, I’m not expecting Gabbert to find him with Rams DEs Robert Quinn and Chris Long draped all over him. The Jaguars also can’t cover anyone; if QB Sam Bradford can’t light these guys up at home after ten days off, that’s a serious problem.

Titans over Chiefs: The Titans are starting backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, but if there’s one team Fitzpatrick loves to face, it’s the Chiefs. Fitzpatrick went 3-1 against the Chiefs during his four years in Buffalo, throwing eight TD passes and two INTs in those games. The Titans are going to try to run the ball heavily, as they’ve done all season, but RB Chris Johnson needs to step up and help his QB out in this one. Tennessee’s ability to bring pressure needs to result in turnovers, which has been hard to do against Kansas City QB Alex Smith. It will be close, but I expect the Titans to defend their home turf for a third week in a row.

Cardinals over Panthers: Panthers QB Cam Newton debuted in Arizona two years ago, and he lit the Cardinals up for 422 passing yards and two TDs to WR Steve Smith. Arizona still won that game after a fourth-quarter punt return TD by CB Patrick Peterson and a red-zone stand by the Cardinals defense. I expect the Panthers to do a lot of running, but the Cardinals will get NT Dan Williams and ILB Daryl Washington back in this game. The last time Cardinals QB Carson Palmer faced the Panthers, he was knocked out for the last time as a Raider. He needs to stay up right and take advantage of Carolina’s extremely thin secondary with WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and Andre Roberts.

Broncos over Cowboys: The last time the Cowboys faced Broncos QB Peyton Manning was 2010 in Indianapolis. The Cowboys had fired Wade Phillips as head coach and lost QB Tony Romo to IR, but they intercepted Manning four times, returned two for TDs, and ran for 210 yards in a 38-35 overtime win. The last time the Broncos faced the Cowboys, the Broncos held a red-zone stand and held on for a 17-10 win in 2009. I just don’t see how the Cowboys slow down the Broncos, especially after having so much trouble defending the San Diego passing game. It will be interesting to see whether or not Romo can keep up with Denver without turning the ball over.

Raiders over Chargers: Chargers QB Philip Rivers shouldn’t have any problems against a secondary that hasn’t intercepted a pass yet this season. Raiders head coach Dennis Allen will just have to blitz and see what happens. Raiders RB Darren McFadden and FB Marcel Reece may not play, but the return of QB Terrelle Pryor should help Oakland be in position to pull an upset Sunday night. The Chargers just lost OLB Dwight Freeney, and the Chargers aren’t much better than the Raiders at defending the pass so far this season. Oakland should watch some tape of the Titans’ Week 3 win over San Diego to see how a mobile QB can put pressure on the San Diego defense.

49ers over Texans: The home team has always won this series, as the 2005 49ers allowed the Texans to select first overall in the 2006 Draft and the 2009 Texans survived three Vernon Davis TDs. Texans QB Matt Schaub is going through a rough stretch, but the return of LT Duane Brown should help him cut down on mistakes as he finds TEs Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham with regularity. The Texans should be able to cover the San Francisco receivers, but they’ll need a disruptive game from DE J.J. Watt. The 49ers need to find a way to attack the top-ranked defense in the NFL; points will be hard to come by. The 49ers will have had ten days off, and if QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Frank Gore can get it going early and keep it going late, then it won’t matter what Schaub does.

Falcons over Jets: When the Falcons faced the Jets in 2009 in the Meadowlands, Falcons QB Matt Ryan found TE Tony Gonzalez for a 4th quarter, 4th-and-goal TD pass to give the Falcons a 10-7 win. The Falcons were also the beneficiaries of three Mark Sanchez INTs that day. The Falcons will be home, and facing a turnover-prone rookie Jets QB once more. The Jets will be without their starting WRs, but RB Bilal Powell should be featured heavily against a thin Atlanta front seven. Unlike 2009, Ryan has WR Julio Jones, and the Jets haven’t seen a TE as good as Gonzalez yet this season.

-1SKILLZ