2013 NFL Week 5 Observations

October football has been established in the National Football League. I wound up with a record of 8-6 in the Week 5 Gameplan, missing on the Jets, Bengals, Colts, Chiefs, Eagles, and Saints. In other words, I thought the Patriots and Seahawks would stay undefeated, while I thought the Chiefs and Saints would be knocked from such lofty heights. I also thought the Giants would finally win a game, while figuring the Jets wouldn’t be able to sneak into the Georgia Dome and escape with a Monday Night Football victory.

2013 NFL Week 5 picks (8-7 in Week 4, +21 for 2013): CLE, CHI, NE, GB, SEA, BAL, NYG, STL, TEN, ARI, DEN, OAK, SF, ATL

— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) October 3, 2013

Redskins (1-3, Bye Week), Vikings (1-3, Bye Week), Buccaneers (0-4, Bye Week), Steelers (0-4, Bye Week): All of these teams are off to rough starts to the season. However, the bye week gave the Redskins, Vikings, and Buccaneers some good news. The Redskins are coming out of their bye week with a chance to take the lead in the NFC East, thanks to the Cowboys’ loss to the Broncos. The Vikings are two games behind the Lions and Bears in the NFC North, two teams that lost in Week 5. The Vikings also signed former Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman. Freeman joins a quarterback room that includes 2011 Vikings first-rounder Christian Ponder (currently injured, always injured) and 2010 Pro Bowler (and 2012 disaster-bomb) Matt Cassel. The Vikings are basically the 2011 Raiders at this point, with Freeman playing the role of Carson Palmer, Ponder playing the role of Jason Campbell, and Cassel playing the role of Kyle Boller. That team finished 8-8, and I had this year’s Vikings team finishing 8-8. We’ll see where this all goes. At the very least, Freeman is Ponder’s polar opposite: big, strong-armed, relatively durable, proven to provide heavy lifting (4,000+ yards and 27 TD passes last season), not as athletic as advertised, and disturbingly mistake-prone (Ponder has nine multi-INT games since 2011, Freeman has 11 despite the edge in experience). As for the Buccaneers? Head coach Greg Schiano doesn’t have Josh Freeman around to blame anymore, so that’s nice for future accountability. And while the Saints are running away with the division, the Falcons and Panthers both lost, so Tampa Bay has some company as they try and dig out of their poor start. The Steelers clearly had the worst bye week. They’re already 0-4, they’ve been reduced to trading for OT Levi Brown to “upgrade” their sorry offensive line, and all three teams in their division are 3-2 after Week 5 wins.

Browns 37, Bills 24 – The Browns won this game, but lost their QB Kevin Kolb-style. QB Brian Hoyer tore his ACL early on, and the Browns only gained 290 yards of total offense. But WR/PR Travis Benjamin returned seven of Bills P Shawn Powell’s eight punts for 179 yards, a 25.6 average that included a 79-yard TD. The Bills promptly released Powell after the game. The Bills also lost their QB, as EJ Manuel sprained his knee on a third-quarter scramble. Buffalo ran the ball well (155 yards, three TDs), but QB Jeff Tuel threw a pick-six to Browns SS T.J. Ward to seal the game. A bad night for the Bills’ season, and not much better for the Browns considering the re-insertion of QB Brandon “John Skelton” Weeden (13/24, 197 yards, one TD, no INTs, five sacks).

Saints 26, Bears 18 – The Bears actually did well to allow “only” 26 points to the Saints; New Orleans made four FGs in this one. But the Saints defense is for real, and more problematic for the Bears, their defense simply can’t do anything against receiving backs. A week after getting put on a highlight by Reggie Bush, Saints backs Pierre Thomas (two TDs), Darren Sproles, and Jed Collins combined for 103 receiving yards on 12 catches. While the Bears got a monster day from WR Alshon Jeffery (218 receiving yards on ten catches, one TD), they became the latest team to go light on the Saints defense in the run game (only 12 rushing attempts for RB Matt Forte, for 55 yards).

Bengals 13, Patriots 6 –  “It’s going to be tough for the Patriots to move the ball at Cincinnati, and QB Tom Brady’s TD streak will definitely be in jeopardy against a Bengals defense that made Super Bowl winning passers Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers look bad.” Sigh. Obviously, I wasn’t surprised that Brady didn’t throw a TD. And QB Andy Dalton delivered a brutal red-zone INT. But this game turned on two things: Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount’s 2nd quarter lost fumble in Bengals territory, and the torrential downpour that would see Brady miss nine of his last ten passes, including a game sealing INT to Bengals CB Adam Jones. The last time the Patriots gave up less than 13 points and lost? September 23, 2001 vs. the Jets. You know, the day that Brady replaced Bledsoe.

Packers 22, Lions 9 – What a strange game (except the result, of course). Lions WR Calvin Johnson did not play, and the Packers hogtied the rest of the Detroit offense for most of the day. Lions QB Matthew Stafford had only taken three sacks in the previous four games; he went down five times, including two by Packers OLB Nick Perry. I mention Perry because he’ll need to step up with Packers OLB Clay Matthews out a month with a Bennett fracture in his thumb. Lions RB Reggie Bush was held to 44 yards rushing on 13 carries. This was also a big game for Packers K Mason Crosby, as he made a career-high five FGs, including one from 52 yards. And Packers rookie RB Eddie Lacy put in heavy work, rushing for 99 yards on 23 carries. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (20/30, 274 yards, no INTs, one 83-yard TD pass to WR James Jones) was only sacked once.

Colts 34, Seahawks 28 – The Seahawks brought the run game to Indianapolis, racking up 218 yards on 34 attempts. Both RB Marshawn Lynch (17 carries) and QB Russell Wilson (13 carries) had 102 yards on the ground. But the Seattle secondary was torched by WR T.Y. Hilton for 140 yards on five catches, including two deep TD bombs. Colts QB Andrew Luck (16/29, 229 passing yards, two TDs, no INTs, one lost fumble) led another fourth quarter comeback. I continue to appreciate the offensive balance of the Colts (29 rushing attempts, 29 passing attempts).

Ravens 26, Dolphins 23 – The Ravens were able to get K Justin Tucker into reasonable field goal range (44 yards), and he gave the Ravens their final lead of the game. The Dolphins and their sieve of an offensive line (six more sacks allowed) put rookie K Caleb Sturgis in a bad spot. Stugis’ attempt from 57 yards wasn’t close, marking his first miss after making his first ten career kicks. Ravens OLB Terrell Suggs was a beast (three sacks), and while the Ravens weren’t efficient on the ground (new OT Eugene Morris didn’t play), RBs Ray Rice (2 TDs) and Bernard Pierce combined to run 38 times for 120 yards.

Eagles 36, Giants 21 – The good news for the Giants: Eagles RB LeSean McCoy got a TD, but was held to 46 yards rushing on 20 attempts. The bad news: pretty much everything else. Eagles WR DeSean Jackson touched up the Giants secondary for 156 receiving yards and a TD, and TE Brent Celek had 47 receiving yards on three catches and a TD. Both TDs were thrown by backup QB Nick Foles, who came on to relieve QB Michael Vick after Vick injured a hamstring. Most impressively, the Eagles allowed only one sack and had no turnovers. On the flip side, Giants QB Eli Manning snowballed again, throwing three more fourth quarter INTs. Giants RB David Wilson scored a TD, then left with a neck injury; backup RB Brandon Jacobs lost a fumble. That’s 20 turnovers now for the Giants – an average of one per quarter!

Rams 34, Jaguars 20 – The Rams had only 189 rushing yards through four games. They had 143 in this one, led by rookie RB Zac Stacy’s 78 yards on 14 carries. Rams QB Sam Bradford threw three TDs, two to WR Austin Pettis. The Jaguars lost rookie OT Luke Joeckel for the season (ankle), and QB Blaine Gabbert threw two more brutal INTs (one returned 82 yards for a TD by FS Matt Giordano) before injuring a hamstring. At least Jaguars WR Justin Blackmon looked good, taking a 67-yard coverage bust to the house and totaling 136 receiving yards.

Chiefs 26, Titans 17 – The Titans took the lead on the first play of the fourth quarter, a 3rd-and-goal TD scramble by QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Titans actually got the ball back with the lead, but went three-and-out after three pass attempts. That was very un-Titan like. Tennessee threw 41 passes and ran 21 times, a departure of what the Titans did when Jake Locker was in the lineup. After the Chiefs reclaimed the lead, Fitzpatrick saved his worst for last, throwing two INTs. The Titans also botched another special teams play, losing a fumble on a muff that the Chiefs recovered for a first quarter TD. The Titans’ three turnovers were their first all season. Just another example of the Chiefs, the league leader in turnover differential, watching their opponents implode.

Cardinals 22, Panthers 6 – While Peyton Manning and Tony Romo were putting up more than 900 passing yards, 99 points, and 9 TD passes in Dallas, Cam Newton and Carson Palmer were busy setting quarterback play back a quarter century. Those two combined for one TD pass and seven turnovers, with Newton taking seven sacks from a defense that had only seven entering the game. Enter Cardinals ILB Daryl Washington, who came back from suspension to log two sacks and a fourth quarter red zone INT. Cardinals ILB Karlos Dansby also had two sacks and a pick, while DE Calais Campbell had two sacks, one of which was a safety. The Cardinals needed their big play defense, because the Cardinals offense was pitiful once again, gaining only 250 yards. Panthers head coach Ron Rivera’s seat just heated back up. Carolina’s offensive line is absolutely brutal.

Broncos 51, Cowboys 48 – I wasn’t surprised that Broncos QB Peyton Manning lit up the Dallas Cover-2 for 33 completions out of 42 attempts, 414 yards, and four TDs. Cowboys CB Morris Claiborne became the first player to intercept Manning – that was surprising. Cowboys QB Tony Romo more than kept up with Manning – he outplayed his counterpart, completing 25 of 36 passes for a Cowboys record 506 yards and five TDs. Unfortunately, I did say in the Gameplan that it would be interesting to see whether or not Romo could keep up with Manning without turning the ball over. Romo’s 36th throw was his worst, intercepted by Broncos WLB Danny Trevathan. Broncos K Matt Prater hit the walk-off FG. Romo has thrown for at least 370 passing yards seven times in his career. The Cowboys lost every one of those games.

Raiders 27, Chargers 17 – The Raiders had not intercepted a pass prior to Monday Morning Football, but they got Chargers QB Philip Rivers three times, making up for allowing 411 passing yards and two TDs. The Raiders forced five turnovers in all, including a 25-yard fumble return by Raiders FS Charles Woodson that went for Woodson’s 13th career defensive score. The Raiders still don’t have a strong offense, as they only gained 299 yards of offense against the 27th-ranked Chargers defense. But Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor continues to be efficient and effective (18/29, 221 yards, two TDs, no INTs).

49ers 34, Texans 3 – I said in the Gameplan that points would be hard to come by for the 49ers offense. While yards were hard to come by, points were bestowed upon them by damaged Texans QB Matt Schaub. Schaub’s first pass was intercepted and returned for a TD by 49ers CB Tramaine Brock. Schaub now has the record for most consecutive games with an interception returned for a TD. Brock would intercept another Schaub pass that would set up another 49ers TD. Schaub’s third INT set up the 49ers’ final TD, a 64-yard catch-and-run from QB Colin Kaepernick to TE Vernon Davis. The 49ers gained 177 yards rushing on 36 attempts, with RBs Frank Gore and Anthony Dixon scoring TDs. Outside of Kaepernick’s TD pass, he completed only five of 14 passes for 49 yards, no TDs, and no INTs. Something that is being glossed over in light of Schaub’s errors: the Texans ran for 19 TDs last season, fourth most in the NFL.  Only one of their 144 rushing attempts this season has gone for a TD, and that was from one yard out.

Jets 30, Falcons 28 – The single biggest surprise of this game was the fact that Jets rookie QB Geno Smith didn’t turn the ball over in Atlanta. Smith was excellent, putting up the points necessary throughout the game with three TD passes. When Falcons QB Matt Ryan brought the Falcons back, Smith calmly put the Jets into K Nick Folk’s FG range, and Folk hit the walk-off game-winner from 43 yards out. Smith completed 16 of 20 passes for 199 yards. Smith showed a lot in what was his third game-winning drive and second fourth quarter comeback: arm talent, mobility, poise, and much-overdue positive decision-making ability. On the flipside, Atlanta is now allowing a 108.1 opposing passer rating.

-1SKILLZ