Although- the NFC East is bad too. Nobody brings it up because they’re ALL so weak that they’re playing the last game on NBC every year
— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) September 3, 2013
I had a feeling the NFC East was going to be what they always are: overexposed and underachieving. No team in the NFC East has won 12 games since 2009, the longest drought of any division. Well, as we enter Week 6, every NFC East team is under .500. The Philadelphia Eagles are 2-3, but they lead the division based on their two road victories within the division. The New York Giants are 0-5 – and about to play on Thursday Night Football. And despite starting 0-3, the Washington Redskins will have a shot at leading the division as they travel to Dallas coming off of the bye for Sunday Night Football. No matter what happens at the end of Sunday night, someone is going to still be overexposed and underachieving!
On to the Week 6 Gameplan – check out the Week 5 Obs here if you missed it. The Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons are on bye weeks. Both teams have lost the two games after these teams met in Miami in Week 3. The Dolphins enter the bye on a two-game losing streak, but they started the season 3-0. QB Ryan Tannehill has improved in his second year, but the Dolphins have already allowed 24 sacks. The Miami defense has allowed 12 TDs – all of them scored by backs and tight ends. The Falcons are 1-4, and their shallow roster is being exposed with serious injuries to WR Julio Jones, WLB Sean Weatherspoon, and DE Kroy Biermann. The Falcons need RB Steven Jackson and WR Roddy White to return to form ASAP, but there’s a good chance that we’ve seen the best of those players already.
THE GAMEPLAN for WEEK 6
2013 NFL Week 6 picks (8-6 in Week 5, +23 for 2013): CHI, BAL, CIN, CLE, HOU, KC, MIN, PIT, TB, DEN, SEA, NE, SF, WAS, IND
— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) October 9, 2013
Bears over Giants: The Bears have lost back-to-back games, but they host a winless Giants team. When these teams played in New York in 2010, the Giants sacked Bears QBs ten times (Cutler left the game after taking nine) and intercepted them twice in a 17-3 Sunday Night Football win. Times have changed, as the Giants can’t get to the passer this year (five sacks, last in the NFC). The Giants have also turned the ball over 20 times, while the Bears, though their defense has slipped, have forced 14 turnovers.
Ravens over Packers: Ravens QB Joe Flacco threw three of his most disturbing INTs when he visited Lambeau Field in 2009. Quadruple-coverage, across-the-body in the red zone, underthrown balls in the fourth quarter. But the Ravens are home, and the Packers have lost their last four on the road. Look for the Baltimore front seven to give the Packers all they can handle in a hostile environment (RE: Ravens OLB Terrell Suggs vs. Packers rookie LT David Bakhtiari). The Ravens won’t have to block Packers OLB Clay Matthews, and Flacco’s receivers are the healthiest they have been all season.
Bengals over Bills: In 2011, Bengals QB Andy Dalton overcame two INTs to lead Cincinnati to a 23-20 win over the Bills. Buffalo will be starting QB Thad Lewis, a classic, mobile West Coast offense type looking to make a name for himself off at Cincinnati’s expense, much like Browns QB Brian Hoyer did two weeks ago. The Bengals haven’t won in Buffalo since 1985, but they should be able to score on the Bills defense as long as Dalton takes care of the football (not a given) and offensive coordinator Jay Gruden creates a way to get WR A.J. Green, RB Giovani Bernard, and TEs Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert the ball (also not a given). The Bills are a decidedly run-heavy offense, leading the league in rushing attempts, but that’s going to be tough sledding against the Cincinnati front seven.
Browns over Lions: The Browns have recorded sacks from 13 different players already this season; they’ll need all the help they can get against an explosive Lions offense getting WR Calvin Johnson back in the lineup. This Browns defense will be much different than the one Lions QB Matthew Stafford threw five TDs and 422 yards against as a rookie in 2009. The Browns really need help from the offense and RB Willis McGahee, and they should be rested after getting ten days off. Asking QB Brandon Weeden to drop back and face the Lions pass rush more than necessary wouldn’t be wise, but targeting WR Josh Gordon deep against the Lions CBs is.
Texans over Rams: The Texans scored at least 30 points in their two wins to open the season, but have scored only 32 points since. Houston will also be missing TE Owen Daniels, and QB Matt Schaub, in the midst of an embarrassing and unprecedented pick-six streak, has struggled without Daniels in the past. Enter RB Arian Foster. The Rams always give up gobs of rushing yardage to teams looking to jump-start their seasons (just ask the Cowboys or 49ers). Despite the three-game losing streak, the Texans still have allowed the fewest yards in the league, and pity the fool on the Rams offensive line assigned to block Texans DE J.J. Watt.
Chiefs over Raiders: The Raiders defended the Chiefs well last year, shutting them out in Oakland while winning 26-16 in Kansas City. Of course, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and QB Alex Smith have nothing to do with last year. Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor should give the Chiefs some problems with his mobility, but it would be a shock if Pryor comes out of this game mistake-free; Kansas City has forced multiple turnovers in every game this season. Smith is the anti-Philip Rivers – he is a poor bet to throw for 300+ yards, but he’ll take care of the ball. And Reid is the anti-Romeo Crennel – he’ll make sure Jamaal Charles gets more than 20 touches for 38 yards in this game, which is as many as Charles had in two games against Oakland combined last year.
Vikings over Panthers: These two teams played two years ago, with then-Vikings K Ryan Longwell making his fourth quarter FG and then-Panthers K Olindo Mare missing his. That was Vikings QB Christian Ponder’s first win as a starting QB; now Ponder is injured, backup QB Matt Cassel is starting, and former Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman is on the roster. So much for the future. If Newton had issues in pass protection in Arizona (seven sacks), things won’t improve much with the Vikings at home coming off of a bye week. It will be interesting to see if the Vikings, scoring at least 24 points in every game, keep up the scoring against a Panthers team that hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game.
Steelers over Jets: The Steelers have to take care of the ball coming off the bye, and though the Jets are allowing the 2nd-fewest yards in the league, they have only forced three turnovers. Steelers OLB LaMarr Woodley has three sacks this season and DE Brett Kiesel has one, but that’s it. Pittsburgh drafted OLB Jarvis Jones in the first round and is turning to 2011 first-round selection DE Cameron Heyward to replace ineffective 2009 first-round selection DE Evander Hood, and those players need to start generating pressure and turnovers (Steelers have yet to force a turnover this season). Though the Steelers will use RB LeVeon Bell in the interest of balance, expect WR Antonio Brown to be featured heavily. Jets QB Geno Smith played well in Atlanta, but he needs to show that he can put back-to-back games of good play together.
Buccaneers over Eagles: Eagles QB Nick Foles is starting due to Michael Vick’s injury, and Foles’ only win as a starter was in Tampa last year, as he threw for 382 yards and two TDs, including the game-winner to WR Jeremy Maclin as time expired. The Buccaneers have a few new defensive backs this time around in CB Darrelle Revis, FS Dashon Goldson, and rookie CB Johnthan Banks. Lost in the Josh Freeman controversy is how the Buccaneers haven’t allowed a team to score more than 23 points this season. Buccaneers QB Mike Glennon is this year’s Foles, a tall third-round rookie passer going to a dysfunctional team with plenty of talent. Coming off of the bye week, Tampa should give RB Doug Martin 20+ touches.
Broncos over Jaguars: The Jack Del Rio Bowl! Back in 2010, the Broncos lost in Jacksonville 24-17. Since then, the two teams have changed coaches five times, with Del Rio landing as the defensive coordinator of the Broncos. Jacksonville will be starting QB Chad Henne, but he won’t be the Jaguars’ problem in this game. Jacksonville’s offensive line has been demolished, leaving Cameron Bradfield and Austin Pasztor as the starting tackles. The major mismatch is Broncos QB Peyton Manning and his receivers against the green secondary of Jacksonville. The Jags have intercepted only two passes this season while allowing 12 TDs.
Seahawks over Titans: The last six games between these two franchises have all been decided by less than a touchdown, including a 17-13 Titans win in 2009. Titans RB Chris Johnson capped his best season by gaining 134 rushing yards and two TDs in that game. This season, Johnson is off to another slow start, averaging 3.1 yards per carry and no rushing TDs in 94 carries. The Seahawks got to play Titans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in Canada last year, and they intercepted him twice. The Titans will bring pressure on Seahawks QB Russell Wilson; he has to handle it without turning the ball over.
Patriots over Saints: The Saints defense is for real, and Rob Ryan knows Patriots QB Tom Brady well from Ryan’s time in New England’s linebackers coach from 2000 to 2003. The only way the Patriots beat the Saints is if they stay turnover-free and run the ball at least 30 times. The Saints are allowing an NFL-worst 5.4 yards per carry, but only the Buccaneers gave them at least 20 rushes (Tampa ran it 33 times and lost only after screwing up late-game situations). New England might put three linebackers on Saints TE Jimmy Graham – not that it will matter. The return of TE Rob Gronkowski will be huge for the Patriots’ bottom-feeding red zone offense.
49ers over Cardinals: These teams are both 3-2, but the Cardinals have been flying under the radar while the 49ers have played five high-profile contests. Arizona hasn’t won at Candlestick Park since the 2008 season opener, when the 49ers were starting J.T. O’Sullivan at QB. Cardinals QB Carson Palmer has struggled with inaccuracy and turnovers, and going up against the 49ers defense isn’t the best cure all (just ask Matt Schaub). The Cardinals front seven has allowed only one TD and 3.3 yards per carry, and they sacked Panthers QB Cam Newton seven times in Week 5. They will make 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick beat them without WR Michael Crabtree (four TDs in two games vs. Arizona last year), but he will if the Cardinals keep struggling to defend tight ends.
Redskins over Cowboys: You’d have to believe that the Cowboys changed defensive coordinators because of Redskins QB Robert Griffin III. Last year’s Redskins lost their first division game of the season, then won the last five, including a four-TD pass performance by Griffin on Thanksgiving in Dallas. Coming off of the bye, Griffin and the Redskins offense had to be excited about facing a Cowboys defense that gave up 51 points. The Redskins have given up the most yardage in the league, but Dallas can be indifferent about running the ball, and the Redskins will also come after the passer (15 sacks). It might be another shootout in Dallas.
Colts over Chargers: For the longest time, the Chargers existed solely to torture the Colts. Indianapolis has won only one of the last six meetings, as former Colts QB Peyton Manning would throw a combined 15 INTs in those games, including two pick-sixes in a 36-14 loss to the Chargers in 2010. Enter Andrew Luck, and enter this year’s San Diego secondary. Luck has drastically cut his interception rate from a year ago in the Colts’ new run-heavy offense, while the Chargers have zero quality defensive backs outside of FS Eric Weddle. In a league full of sorry pass defenses, the Chargers have the sorriest, and that will put the one-dimensional San Diego offense in a bad spot.
-1SKILLZ