Week 7 in the NFL was not lucky for me or anyone who gambles based on my straight up picks that I leave unchanged after August.
After a hot start in the first three weeks of the season, the following three weeks were shaky. But I didn’t fall under .500 for a week until this past slate, missing on nine of 15 games. Week 7 in the NFL featured seven games that were decided by seven points or less. The Gameplan went 1-6 in those games. Send in the field goal unit, why don’t ya?
If you need me to discuss why Tampa Bay, Detroit, Saint Louis, Cleveland, Tennessee, or Jacksonville lost, hit up the comment box and get at me on the Twitter machine, and/or just refer to the Gameplan. Since I was off on so many games though, allow me to use the column by addressing just those nine games I missed. The teams that won surely brought something that was either unexpected or was there all along and was underscored on my part. But the teams that lost have some issues that I’ll have to address:
2013 NFL Week 7 picks (8-7 in Week 5, +24 for 2013): ARI, ATL, CAR, CIN, NE, SD, HOU, MIA, PHI, CHI, SF, GB, BAL, DEN, MIN
— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) October 18, 2013
Seahawks 34, Cardinals 22: I’m not a fan of breaking games down to just quarterback performance, but there’s a toughness to Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (18/29, 235 yards, three TDs, no INTs, two lost fumbles). Outside of RB Marshawn Lynch, who does Wilson rely on? The sacks are piling up without LT Russell Okung (20 already this season), and without WR Percy Harvin, a Seattle receiver hasn’t gained 100 yards in a game all season. Yet, Wilson continues to deliver. The Cardinals’ offense is struggling with QB Carson Palmer, who took seven sacks and tossed two more INTs, giving him 13 on the year. But there is a sneaky problem with the Arizona defense, and it is their coverage of tight ends. Of the 13 TD passes Arizona has allowed this season, eight of them have been to TEs. In fact, all eight of those tight end TDs have come in the four games Arizona lost. Mind the gap, Arizona!
Bills 23, Dolphins 21: The first of the several games decided by a field goal. The Dolphins decided to release K Dan Carpenter in the offseason, replacing him with rookie Caleb Sturgis. Sturgis opened the door for a “what goes around…” by missing a 51-yard field goal in the second quarter. Carpenter made three short field goals, including the one that counted most, the go-ahead 31-yard kick in the fourth quarter. Bills DE Mario Williams had two fourth-quarter sacks, including one that forced Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill to lose a fumble, setting up the Bills’ game-winning drive. Tannehill also threw two INTs, one that was returned for a TD by Bills rookie CB Nickell Robey. Miami’s offensive line has allowed the most sacks in the NFL and threatens to stall Tannehill’s development. The acquisition of former Ravens OT Bryant McKinnie doesn’t inspire confidence, lest you remember the Ravens traded for an OT this month specifically to replace McKinnie.
Jets 30, Patriots 27: The Jets are 4-3. Shall we recap? New York defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, aided by a personal foul that set up a game-winning field goal. New York defeated the Bills despite a whopping 20 penalties. New York defeated Atlanta 30-28, bailing out head coach Rex Ryan’s failure to go for two after a fourth quarter touchdown. And the Jets defeated the Patriots after the first enforcement of a special teams penalty negated an overtime field goal miss from 56 yards that should have never been attempted. It’s better to be lucky than good – not saying the Jets aren’t good, but they have caught their share of breaks this season. To be clear, the Patriots surely did not deserve to win this game after allowing 177 rushing yards and 27 first downs, the most first downs the Jets gained in three years.
Cowboys 17, Eagles 3: This was bizarre. Philadelphia QB Nick Foles was dreadful (11/29, 80 yards, no TDs, no INTs), and for the second year in a row, the Cowboys concussed an Eagles quarterback. Unfortunately, rookie QB Matt Barkley, entering the game facing a 14-point fourth quarter deficit, was decidedly worse (three possessions, three INTs). Dallas held Philadelphia under 400 yards for the first time all season, and the Eagles scored their fewest points since Dallas shut them out in 2009. Quite a defensive performance for a Cowboys team playing their first game without DE DeMarcus Ware since he was drafted in 2005. The Cowboys have intercepted more passes this season (nine) than they had all of last season (seven).
Redskins 45, Bears 41: The Chicago defense is terrible, and now, the offense may not be able to save it anymore. Bears QB Jay Cutler was lost to an injury, though backup QB Josh McCown found TE Martellus Bennett for a go-ahead TD with four minutes remaining. Washington marched down the field and won the game on RB Roy Helu’s third TD of the game. Washington racked up 499 yards in this contest, with rookie TE Jordan Reed breaking out for 134 yards and a TD on his nine receptions. Washington QB Robert Griffin III completed 18 of 29 passes for 298 yards, two TDs, and one INT, and he added 84 rushing yards while taking only one sack. Washington was finally able to maintain a run heavy approach similar to last season, racking up 204 yards on 43 attempts. Perhaps the Washington offense is back, I don’t know. I do know that the Chicago defense looks toothless, and things won’t be better with the loss of OLB Lance Briggs.
Chiefs 17, Texans 16: I have a Chiefs rant, so regarding Houston, I’ll keep this one short. The Texans got a decent game out of QB Case Keenum (15/25, 271 yards, one TD, one lost fumble), especially considering the early loss of RB Arian Foster. But the Texans had first and goal from the one-yard line early in the third quarter following a turnover, and they settled for a field goal. Houston never saw the red zone again. Now, on Kansas City. The defense is Super Bowl caliber: league-leading 35 sacks, two rushing TDs allowed, league-best 64.9 passer rating allowed. Defensive Coordinator Bob Sutton, formerly on the Jets staff, was a member of the 2010 Jets team that knocked off teams led by Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the postseason. The 2011 Chiefs gave that year’s Packers, led by MVP QB Aaron Rodgers, their only loss of the season. The only road win from the 2012 Chiefs? In New Orleans, a team led by QB Drew Brees. They beat Eli Manning’s Giants 34-7 this season. That’s five Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks that members of this year’s defense has experience frustrating. Weak competition? Well, the Chiefs and Broncos have faced five similar opponents. The Broncos dominate their opponents? The Chiefs haven’t allowed 20 points yet. In this era of inflated offense, what’s more impressive: scoring 30+, or not allowing 20? RB Jamaal Charles is at the top of the MVP list, as he has totaled at least 100 yards of offense and scored at least one TD in every game this season. Last year’s MVP, Adrian Peterson, had eight such games all season. Charles has more total yards (898) and TDs (eight) than any three Chiefs combined. They were a laughingstock at 2-14 last year. Now that they’re 7-0, some are calling them overrated. That’s ridiculous … you mean they need to be 3-4 to not be overrated? No, I’m not putting them in the Super Bowl, and neither should you. It’s October, for crying out loud. I’m not giving them the division yet either. QB Alex Smith (79.2 passer rating) is basically producing like 2012 Christian Ponder (81.2 passer rating). All I’m saying is, don’t wait for that first Chiefs loss and say, “see, they were weak all along!” This coming from someone who didn’t have the Chiefs in the playoffs by the way. They’re not overrated, they were underrated coming into the season. And if the Chiefs do knock off the Broncos and/or do something truly significant with their (post)season, in large part due to their aggressive defense? Don’t act surprised.
Steelers 19, Ravens 16: This game was a typical Baltimore-Pittsburgh slobberknocker, with neither team reaching 300 yards of offense and the team with the ball last winning the game. My luck, that team was Pittsburgh. Credit Pittsburgh for running the football effectively (29 attempts, 141 yards), limiting QB Ben Roethlisberger’s exposure to the Baltimore pass rush (23 pass attempts, three sacks allowed). Ravens RB Ray Rice continues to drag (only 45 yards on 15 carries).
Colts 39, Broncos 33: Shocker of the week? Perhaps. Indianapolis scored only nine points in San Diego, then dropped 39 against the Broncos, the most points the Colts have scored in a game since drafting QB Andrew Luck. The Colts held the Broncos to a season-low 33 points, which isn’t much of a low, but still. Indianapolis head coach Chuck Pagano was on Baltimore’s staff as a defensive coordinator, and he has a premier pass rusher in OLB Robert Mathis. Indianapolis carried this game out much like the playoff game between Baltimore and Denver in January, and Luck didn’t even need a Rocky Mountain Rainbow! Indianapolis harassed Denver up front, getting to the passer four times, including a safety. But the red zone execution of the Colts was critical, and not even the return of OLB Von Miller could save the sorry affairs of Denver’s pass defense. All four Indianapolis TDs were scored in the red zone, while Denver RB Ronnie Hillman lost a key fourth quarter fumble inside the five.
Giants 23, Vikings 7: Ye Gods. I broke down Vikings QB Josh Freeman as the anti-Ponder: while Ponder is an injury-prone, modest-armed passer at best with underrated athleticism, Freeman is a big, strong-armed passer with less than special movement skills, scattershot accuracy, and thoroughly inconsistent decision-making. On Monday Night Football, Freeman (20/53, 190 passing yards, no TDs, one INT, one brutal, field-goal eliminating sack taken) looked like a quarterback who had no business starting in any NFL game, let alone a game in which he has only been a member of the Vikings for only a couple of weeks. Why Minnesota offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave allowed Freeman to throw so much had a lot to do with RB Adrian Peterson’s struggles (only 28 rushing yards on 13 carries), but I’d rather slam Peterson into the line 30+ times than let such an inefficient passer chuck it incomplete 30+ times. Freeman is in a situation similar to Kerry Collins in 1998 when he went from Carolina to New Orleans midseason. Collins started the final seven games of that season in New Orleans, and he completed 49% of his passes while tossing ten INTs and only four TDs. Collins went 2-5 as a Saints starter, then left for the Giants the following offseason. At this rate, Freeman, Ponder, Matt Cassel, and head coach Leslie Frazier may all be leaving Minnesota next offseason.
As a way to sign out of here, the Oakland Raiders (2-4) and New Orleans Saints (5-1) both had open dates. Not the best open date for either team, as both teams saw multiple division rivals win this week. Oakland finds itself in the AFC West cellar, while the Panthers (two games) and Falcons (three games) aren’t completely out of New Orleans’ range.
-1SKILLZ