This week in the NFL isn’t much to write home about. Six NFL teams are on their bye week: Baltimore Ravens (3-4), Houston Texans (2-5), Indianapolis Colts (5-2), Tennessee Titans (3-4), San Diego Chargers (4-3), and Chicago Bears (4-3). Three of those teams are in the AFC South; the outlier Jacksonville Jaguars have a “home” game in London. There are five division matchups, and three of them are in primetime. Unfortunately, the primetime games feature the 0-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the 1-5 Minnesota Vikings, and the 3-4 Saint Louis Rams. If there is a week to skip football, this is it.
And what a week it would be! The World Series starts tonight, with the American League champion Boston Red Sox versus the National League champion Saint Louis Cardinals. In this rematch of the 2004 World Series, I’ll take the Red Sox in 7. Sure, why not. Hockey is also underway, and I’m sure you’ll be ready when the NetworksUnited drops the NBA Lightweight Report before the end of the month! Not to mention, it’s Halloween weekend!
On to the Week 8 Gameplan – check out my Week 7 Obs as well. Just to recap the bye week situations: Baltimore is averaging 2.8 yards per rushing attempt. That’s dead last in the NFL, and the single biggest problem on the team. Houston is allowing the fewest yards in the league, and the offense is 8th in yardage, but they have been outscored by 72 points. Giving up all of those pick-sixes have something to do with that, but like the Ravens, Houston isn’t getting what it needs from the running game: 198 rushing attempts, only two touchdowns. Indianapolis gave up a first-round pick for RB Trent Richardson when they lost TE Dwayne Allen and RB Vick Ballard to injury. Now, they’ve lost RB Ahmad Bradshaw and WR Reggie Wayne to injury. The Colts haven’t played a game without either Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne since December 1998. The Titans are in the bottom-five in total offense at the moment – heads will roll if there isn’t improvement by season’s end. I thought San Diego would win three games this season. QB Philip Rivers isn’t just having a good season – he’s having his best season, as he has a career-high 111.1 passer rating (15 TDs, five INTs, 73% completions, over 300 yards a game) and has taken only 11 sacks. With the Chicago defense in shambles and QB Jay Cutler out indefinitely (groin), the Bears will start QB Josh McCown and perhaps lean a little more on RB Matt Forte. Forte already has more rushing TDs this season (six) as he did last (five).
THE GAMEPLAN FOR WEEK 8
2013 NFL Week 8 picks (6-9 in Week 7, +21 for 2013): CAR, DET, SF, KC, MIA, NO, NYG, PIT, CIN, ATL, DEN, MIN, STL
— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) October 23, 2013
Panthers over Buccaneers: The Carolina Panthers haven’t been over .500 since QB Jake Delhomme threw five INTs in the 2008 playoff loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Tampa Bay swept Carolina last year. Panthers QB Cam Newton has to find the holes in Tampa Bay’s underachieving secondary, and with Tampa Bay CB Darrelle Revis rarely allowed to put receivers on Revis Island, WR Steve Smith may get favorable matchups against rookie CB Johnthan Banks or second-year CB Leonard Johnson. The only game Tampa Bay head coach Greg Schiano has won this year is the one over Josh Freeman. Rookie QB Mike Glennon hasn’t been a disaster, but fellow rookie RB Mike James replaces Doug Martin, and it will be tough for Glennon to lock on to WR Vincent Jackson against a Carolina secondary that has yielded a 5:9 TD-INT ratio thus far.
Lions over Cowboys: I thought both of these teams would win five games this season – one of them will get there by the end of Sunday’s game. The last time the two teams played, Cowboys QB Tony Romo threw three brutal INTs to blow a 24-point lead, while WR Calvin Johnson caught two fourth quarter TDs for a 34-30 Lions win in 2011. The Lions have issues at CB (as they have every year), but linebackers and safeties have accounted for nine of their ten INTs, while DT Ndamukong Suh will get to face off with Cowboys rookie C Travis Frederick often. Lions QB Matthew Stafford exhibits some of the best control in the league (15 TDs, four INTs, only nine sacks taken), and it’s hard to see the Cowboys stopping both Megatron and RB Reggie Bush.
49ers over Jaguars: The 49ers are going to feel like they’re in Seattle, with the London skies and former Seattle defensive coordinator Gus Bradley as head coach of the Jaguars. Then they’ll realize that the Jaguars can’t run the ball (32nd in total rushing yards) or stop the run (32nd in rushing yards allowed). The 49ers have scored the most rushing TDs in the NFL, and opponents aren’t having much success passing against their defense (73.6 passer rating allowed). It might be a long day for Jaguars QB Chad Henne.
Chiefs over Browns: The Romeo Crennel Bowl! Last season, former Browns RB Trent Richardson scored two TDs in a 30-7 win over the Chiefs. This season, QB Brandon Weeden has been benched and replaced by QB Jason Campbell. Campbell won his last start at Arrowhead Stadium in 2010, but without a running game (only one rushing TD all season), Cleveland is just asking for trouble against the hyper-aggressive Kansas City pass rush (35 sacks). I’m not sure that the Browns will be the first team to keep RB Jamaal Charles out of the end zone or under 100 total yards; Charles burned them for 165 rushing yards last year, including an 80-yard TD.
Dolphins over Patriots: Both of these teams started 3-0, but have combined to go 2-5 since. Patriots QB Tom Brady and Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill have started every game, but both have absorbed at least 20 sacks already. NFL teams are averaging 2.7 sacks a game, most since 1986, and both Patriots DE Chandler Jones and Dolphins DE Cameron Wake will be out hunting. Brady hasn’t lost a home start to the Dolphins since the 2005 season, but Miami should be able to double TE Rob Gronkowski often while stopping the other Patriots receivers one-on-one. The Dolphins also need to run the ball against New England’s thin front seven, and use WR Mike Wallace to test New England’s depth in the secondary.
Saints over Bills: The Doug Marrone Bowl! Marrone, currently the Buffalo head coach, served as the New Orleans offensive coordinator before taking the head coach position at Syracuse. In 2009, New Orleans RB Pierre Thomas ran for a career-high 126 yards and two TDs in a 27-7 win at Buffalo. I wouldn’t be surprised if the run-heavy oriented Bills kept this one as close as their other games this season, especially with New Orleans TE Jimmy Graham hobbling. It’s tough to beat the Saints at home though, especially after the bye week, where the Saints have won their last four post-bye games.
Giants over Eagles: Eventually, the Eagles have to win a home game. I’m just not sure it will be this week. Four of New York WR Rueben Randle’s seven career TDs have come against the Eagles. While the Philadelphia defense is showing some signs of life (eight INTs, as many as all of last season’s team), they’re still ranked 31st in yards allowed. The Giants did a decent job against Eagles RB LeSean McCoy a few weeks ago (20 carries, 46 yards, one TD), and if Philadelphia QB Michael Vick pulls up lame against the Giants this time, rookie QB Matt Barkley (three possessions, three INTs) will have to save the day.
Steelers over Raiders: The Raiders have been one of the worst teams of the 21st century, while the Steelers have been one of the best. But the Raiders have won four of the last seven meetings between the two teams, including last year’s 34-31 thriller. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger had 384 passing yards, four TDs, and no INTs at Oakland last year, but he had no run game to speak of (20 rushes, 54 yards despite leading almost the entire game). Enter rookie RB Le’Veon Bell. The light bulb is starting to come on for the Pittsburgh defense and the Raiders have the fewest passing yards in the league – this is not going to be a great game for Oakland QB Terrelle Pryor.
Bengals over Jets: Jets head coach Rex Ryan is 3-0 against the Cincinnati Bengals, as Cincinnati has scored a combined 24 points in those three games. Of course, none of those games involved Bengals WR A.J. Green or QB Andy Dalton. The Jets have been at their best offensively against relatively non-threatening fronts – they won’t have that privilege on the road against the Cincinnati front seven. The Jets don’t force many turnovers, and though they defend the run well, top receivers have burned them at times. The Bengals frustrated three Super Bowl winning passers in Cincinnati already this season (Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Brady) – it will be hard for Jets rookie QB Geno Smith to make it through this one unscathed.
Falcons over Cardinals: Last year, Falcons QB Matt Ryan threw five INTs at home against the Cardinals, with no TD passes – and the Falcons still won. In fact, it was the Cardinals benching their quarterback in that game! New Arizona head coach Bruce Arians nearly benched new QB Carson Palmer during a Thursday Night Football loss that brought Palmer’s season numbers down to eight TDs, 13 INTs, and 20 sacks taken. Ryan threw for over 300 yards against Arizona last year, and threw three TD passes last week despite the absence of his starting receivers. The Cardinals refuse to defend TEs (eight of their 13 TD receptions allowed have been by four TEs in their four losses), so Ryan should focus on protecting the football and, once in the red zone, targeting the only tight end with over 100 TD catches, Tony Gonzalez.
Broncos over Redskins: The Mike Shanahan Bowl! The Redskins are coming off their highest scoring game since 2005, while the Broncos have allowed at least 19 points in every game this season. Shanahan is coming back to the city where he coached two Super Bowl champions, and he’s bringing a dynamic passer with him. The problem is, the Redskins are at their best running the ball, and Denver is allowing 3.3 yards per run. The Redskins also can’t stop anybody defensively – Denver QB Peyton Manning is going to have a field day throwing the ball, and then RB Knowshon Moreno should get a chance to dent the Redskins’ bottom-five run defense.
Vikings over Packers: The Greg Jennings Bowl! Vikings QB Josh Freeman will mercifully not play – his inaccuracy and poor decision making overshadows any point about his comfort level, or lack thereof, in Minnesota’s offense. Enter Christian Ponder, who complemented RB Adrian Peterson’s 199 rushing yards with three TD passes against the Packers in the 2012 season finale to send the Vikings into the postseason. Ponder’s inconsistency and injuries have overshadowed his career since the New Year, but the Vikings averaged 27 points in his three starts this season, and only 17 points in the three he missed. The Green Bay offense is somewhat vulnerable with the injuries to WRs James Jones and Randall Cobb and TE Jermichael Finley, but Minnesota needs their best quarterback to help put up points to win this game.
Rams over Seahawks: The Rams have lost four of their last five games against the Seahawks, and now Rams QB Sam Bradford (ACL) will be replaced by QB Kellen Clemens (seven TD passes in eight NFL seasons). For what it’s worth, Rams offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has worked with Clemens for seven out of his eight seasons. Schottenheimer will simply ask Clemens and RB Zac Stacy to protect the football. The Rams still have a fierce pass rush, the Seahawks have allowed 20 sacks, and the Rams defended Seahawks QB Russell Wilson better than any other team last season when they intercepted him three times in Saint Louis and sacked him six times in Seattle. If nothing else, Rams head coach Jeff Fisher has an excuse to kick 60-yard field goals with K Greg Zuerlein and have P John Hekker throw passes – it’s how they beat the Seahawks last year.
-1SKILLZ