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Apr 13 2019

2018-2019 NBA Playoffs: The 9th Annual Bandwagon Report

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Thoughts

by Law Murray

The 2018-2019 NBA Bandwagon Report!

It’s about to go down and back up again! The 2018-2019 NBA Playoffs are here, and your host is back with the 9th annual NBA Bandwagon Report. I’m here for you, even if you aren’t here for me! So let’s get rolling!

I’m not known to make a lot of predictions at the start of the NBA playoffs. I’m not chef like Curry, I just put out situational dishes like the NBA Lightweight Report. The 2018-2019 version of the NBA Lightweight Report, released in October, had mixed results! In the West, I had the Mavericks, Timberwolves, and Lakers making the playoffs instead of the Spurs, Nuggets, and Clippers. In the East, I had the Heat and Wizards making the playoffs instead of the Magic and Nets. Ah well!

 

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This season’s bracket is a little tricky. Looking back at the Lightweight Report from October, I had two current quarterfinals matchups (Boston/Indiana and Utah/Houston) as semifinals matchups. Anyway, my role here every April is to help all you folks who are wondering how these teams are here find a squad for at least the next couple of weeks, and perhaps the next couple of months. Teams should have to earn bandwagon fans (in addition to jerseys). Some bandwagons are at or near capacity, and some are straight up neglected. We’ll take a look at all of them! (rankings are for entire season, records are 16-game splits +last two games):

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 – Milwaukee Bucks (4th offense, 1st defense) [12-4, 10-6, 12-4, 13-3, 11-5, +1]

The Bucks are the ultimate test of bandwagon power. On one hand, they’re very good. They were the only team to win 60 games! No other team finished in the top four in both offense and defense, and they were led by a player who should be this year’s MVP in PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, a player who is unique and accessible while dominating the paint on both ends of the floor. The Bucks gave Antetokounmpo a proven head coach in Mike Budenholzer, and the Bucks surrounded Antetokounmpo with shotblocking, 3-point shooting C in Brook Lopez to go with All-Star SF Khris Middleton and All-Star snub PG Eric Bledsoe. On the other hand – the Bucks are hidden in Milwaukee, haven’t won a playoff series since 2001 (losing their last eight quarterfinals), and are dealing with injuries up and down the depth chart. All of that to say: don’t feel bad about jumping on the Bucks bandwagon, especially this season.

#8 – Detroit Pistons (21st offense, 12th defense) [9-7, 7-9, 5-11, 12-4, 6-10, +2]


The Pistons bet on the hiring of former Toronto head coach Dwane Casey and full seasons from PF Blake Griffin and PG Reggie Jackson being enough to make the playoffs. That worked out! Griffin made his first All-Star game in four years, while Jackson played in all 82 games for the first time in his career. But even when the Pistons utilized a hot shooting stretch after the All-Star break that was bolstered by midseason acquisition SG Wayne Ellington, Griffin was showing signs of wear and tear. Fortunately for the Pistons, C Andre Drummond played inspired ball as winter became spring. However, Detroit literally limped into the playoffs, becoming the last team to clinch their spot as Griffin struggled with left knee soreness. They’re likely to be the first team out as a result – the question is if they can win their first playoff game since trading Chauncey Billups in 2008.

#4 – Boston Celtics (10th offense, 6th defense) [9-7, 10-6, 11-5, 8-8, 10-6, +1]


What a difference a year makes. The Celtics thrived off of depressed expectations last spring, losing Game 7 of the Conference Finals at home despite not having PG Kyrie Irving or SF Gordon Hayward due to injury. Irving and Hayward are healthy this time around, but SG Marcus Smart is not, and the Celtics demonstrated the worst chemistry of head coach Brad Stevens’ six-year tenure. They were woefully inconsistent, although they were never outright bad. Maybe they just needed the postseason to just get here – after all, they are going for their third straight Conference Finals appearance. Irving’s pending free agency has been a cloud over this team all season. Ultimately, Boston’s ceiling will be defined by what he’s able to do as a scorer, distributor, shooter, and occasional defensive playmaker.

#5 – Indiana Pacers (18th offense, 3rd defense) [10-6, 10-6, 12-4, 9-7, 6-10, +1]


For while there, it appeared that the Indiana Pacers would be unfazed by the season-ending leg injury to All-Star SG Victor Oladipo that he suffered in late January. Unfortunately, the Pacers really struggled to keep pace (yup) once spring ended and the lack of difference-making talent was too much to overcome. At Indiana’s best, they have several stingy defenders despite the loss of Oladipo such as PF Thaddeus Young and PG Darren Collison, while C Myles Turner is one of the best shot-blockers in the league. SF Bojan Bogdanovic found a way to score nearly 20 points per game efficiently, SG Wesley Matthews filled in admirably for Oladipo, and backup C Domantas Sabonis comes into games ready to get buckets. This would have been a nice bandwagon to jump on around the All-Star break, but they don’t have enough firepower right now.

#2 – Toronto Raptors (5th offense, 5th defense) [12-4, 11-5, 12-4, 11-5, 10-6, +2]


The Raptors changed head coaches, traded the face of their franchise for a recent Finals MVP, watched the player who eliminated them in the last three postseasons leave the conference, and then just kind of existed. Toronto approached this season like a glorified walkthrough. Once SF Kawhi Leonard entered the regular season, the drama was pretty much gone. Now, Leonard’s free agency will be a cloud that hangs over everyone’s head, especially if Toronto fails to win multiple playoff series. But Leonard got buckets despite his aggressive rest plan, and All-Star Kyle Lowry sacrificed high-usage offense to make sure the entire team was more well-rounded. PF Pascal Siakam came up and gave Toronto’s offense an air of effective unpredictability, while SG Danny Green and midseason trade acquisition C Marc Gasol made Toronto’s lineup that much more complete. Now, Toronto’s bench has been inconsistent despite the presence of PG Fred VanVleet and C Serge Ibaka, but Toronto operated during the regular season like a team that knew what they were doing. Jump on the bandwagon and experience the turn up!

#7 – Orlando Magic (22nd offense, 8th defense) [8-8, 6-10, 6-10, 10-6, 10-6, +2]


Where did this team come from?! I can’t recall a time where a team I picked to be dead last in their conference up and made the playoffs. And the Magic didn’t just get in as a courtesy, as they played excellent ball to overcome a mediocre stretch in the middle of the season. C Nikola Vucevic made the All-Star team because he did it all for Orlando – he scores inside and outside, he has improved as a passer and defender, and he remained and elite rebounder. The difference for Vucevic, and the Magic by extension, is that he missed only two games. Orlando’s frontcourt has all kinds of size, length and athleticism with SF Jonathan Isaac and PF Aaron Gordon joining Vucevic, and while the backcourt of PG DJ Augustin and SG Evan Fournier isn’t special, SG Terrence Ross is capable of outscoring entire benches by himself. That last part is the part of Orlando’s bandwagon that shall give prospective consumers pause, as Orlando’s offense is in a Disney World of trouble on the rare nights that Vucevic can’t carry the starters or the slightly more frequent times Ross isn’t hot off the bench. It’s also worth mentioning that Orlando’s entire starting lineup has started five career postseason games combined.

#3 – Philadelphia 76ers (8th offense, 14th defense) [9-7, 11-5, 11-5, 10-6, 9-7, +1]


Oh boy. This team was made for bandwagons. Remember that 72-loss season three years ago? That’s in the past, and now this team is led by a two-way destroyer in All-Star C Joel Embiid, 6’10” All-Star PG Ben Simmons, and three high-performing starters in SF Jimmy Butler, PF Tobias Harris, and SG JJ Redick. When those five play together, they are capable of blowout leads. But their game management is shaky, and now Embiid’s surgically-repaired left knee is flaring up to the point where his availability will be compromised in the spring yet again. Making matters more awkward is the fact that Butler, Harris and Redick can reach free agency. Trust this super-squad if you want to… I’d advise extreme caution.

#6 – Brooklyn Nets (19th offense, 15th defense) [7-9, 7-9, 11-5, 7-9, 8-8, +2]


While the mainstream waits for the Manhattan Knicks to sustain a positive run for the first time in the 21st Century, here are the upstart Brooklyn Nets repping New York City in the postseason for the first time in four years. Yeah, I’m shocked too! The interesting thing about the Nets is that they were only a really good team for like a month in the middle of the season. The Nets were 12-11 after the All-Star break as they struggled to reintegrate previously injured players like SF Caris LeVert and SG Spencer Dinwiddie. But discarded former Lakers PG D’Angelo Russell broke through and became an All-Star, if only because he showed up every night to be the main source of offense, while players like C Jarrett Allen and SG Joe Harris made the most of their skills. They earned their way into a manageable quarterfinals matchup by winning their last three games of the season, and if Allen can anchor the defense consistently, they could ensure their outrageous bench celebrations are sustained entering May.

This year’s Bandwagon Report is brought to you by FUN!!!

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 – Golden State Warriors (1st offense, 11th defense) [12-4, 9-7, 13-3, 10-6, 12-4, +1]


Who is going to stop this team from a fifth consecutive NBA Finals appearance? No one. Now that we have that part settled… there’s something for being a bandwagon fan for the Warriors for reasons that weren’t already established while they were winning three out of four championships, mixing in the most miraculous blown 3-1 lead in the history of the game. Will PG Stephen Curry finally get a Finals MVP? Will SG Klay Thompson have to call out Oracle again? Will pending free agent SF Kevin Durant get ejected? Will PF Draymond Green ensure that Golden State’s inconsistent defense stays connected? Will C DeMarcus Cousins have a successful postseason debut? The new starting lineup had some rough patches in winter, but they ended the season obliterating foes on both ends of the court. The true Golden State bandwagon is defined by how many of you stick around for the next generation.

#8 – LA Clippers (9th offense, 19th defense) [11-5, 8-8, 7-9, 9-7, 12-4, +1]


Look, not the Clippers have bigger fish to fry than sweating these playoffs. They would have been fine staying in the lottery and keeping a 2019 draft pick. But after a one-year absence in which they still managed to finish over .500, the best NBA team in SoCal this decade is back in the playoffs! The Clippers were the antithesis of their city mate Lakers in every way, but that’s been a true statement throughout the respective franchises histories in Southern California. It’s just that this year, it meant the Clippers were overachievers on the court while being the opposite of dysfunctional in the locker room and the front office despite not having any stars or any players who were on the postseason roster from 2017. The Clippers rely on PF Danilo Gallinari and a powerful bench led by PG Lou Williams and C Montrezl Harrell to get to the free throw line better than any team in the league. The Clippers played their best ball of the season throughout March, bolstered by decent three-point shooting by Gallinari, rookie midseason trade acquisition SF Landry Shamet, and veteran irritant SG Patrick Beverley. If all goes well for the Clippers, they won’t get swept. But their bandwagon is about looking like the kind of team that is preparing to overcome their franchise narrative beyond this season.

#4 – Houston Rockets (2nd offense, 18th defense) [9-7, 8-8, 11-5, 11-5, 13-3, +1]


This season started with the narrative that the Rockets would miss versatile defenders from last season, and it appeared that their offseason would sink them to mediocrity. But then SG James Harden decided the #UnguardableTour until injured cornerstones PG Chris Paul and C Clint Capela returned. A funny thing happened along the way – the Rockets got deeper and ended the last month of the season with one of the top two defenses in the league. The Rockets are going to launch voluminous 3s, and if they’re hitting, they’re a 90 percent win team (Houston went 18-2 when they made 20+ 3s this season). But they went 4-12 when they made fewer than 30 percent of 3s, including two losses to their first round opponent. Don’t be surprised if the Rockets don’t win multiple (or any) playoff series.

#5 – Utah Jazz (14th offense, 2nd defense) [8-8, 7-9, 11-5, 11-5, 12-4, +1]


The Jazz started the season slow for the second season in a row, struggling with an inconsistent offense that failed to ride the momentum of the previous spring’s postseason run. Unlike last season, the Jazz didn’t need to wait for C Rudy Gobert to get healthy, and the turnaround occurred earlier. Utah is entering the postseason playing their best ball of the season, and Gobert is the key to it all. While SG Donovan Mitchell is the more recognizable figure as a high-volume scorer, Gobert anchors the Western Conference’s best defense while efficiently finishing everything within an arm’s length of the rim. Being on the Utah bandwagon isn’t popular for myriad reasons, and a really good team is not going to win a playoff series this year, but the Jazz could are just a year removed from upsetting a more talented on-paper #4 seed. The health of PG Ricky Rubio (left quad) could be critical to Utah avoiding a semifinals repeat from last season.

#2 – Denver Nuggets (7th offense, 10th defense) [10-6, 11-5, 12-4, 10-6, 10-6, +1]


Quite the quandary here. The Nuggets didn’t just end their five-year postseason drought – they were consistently good throughout the season despite a collective lack of big game experience and myriad injuries throughout the lineup. C Nikola Jokic was the only member of the team who played more than 2,500 minutes, and he did everything but jump in his first All-Star season. Now, Denver didn’t exactly play their best ball once PG Jamal Murray, PF Paul Millsap, SF Will Barton and SG Gary Harris returned to health. None of the starters are 40 percent 3-point shooters, and the offense tends to drag when Jokic drifts. But if Jokic finds a rhythm as a scorer (Nuggets are 7-1 when he scores at least 30) or passer (Nuggets are 10-0 when Jokic has at least 11 assists), the Nuggets are hard to beat. Another key for prospective bandwagoners: no team was better at home than Denver, and they wouldn’t have to play a Game 1 away from Colorado until at least the Conference Finals.

#7 – San Antonio Spurs (6th offense, 20th defense) [8-8, 9-7, 10-6, 8-8, 11-5, +2]


All-Star PF LaMarcus Aldridge is still here, but he spent the majority of the season starting next to four players who were either in Toronto (SF DeMar DeRozan, C Jakob Poeltl) or San Antonio’s bench (PG Derrick White, SG Bryn Forbes) last season. San Antonio appeared to survive the slow start behind an offense that found a way to get the ball in the basket via the midrange, but then the Rodeo Trip (and White’s plantar fasciitis) exposed San Antonio’s defense, an unfamiliar sight for a Gregg Popovich-coached team. The vibes are better now than they were this time a year ago, though. The defense recovered once White returned, and the team isn’t dealing with a phenomenon like Kawhi Leonard’s uncertain status. The Spurs aren’t the contender they were two years ago, but they reloaded on the fly despite an offseason/preseason wrought with trade, free agency, injury and retirement. And bandwagoners can hang on the fact that the only #7 seed to win a playoff series in the 21st century was Popovich’s 2009-2010 team that upset Dallas.

#3 – Portland Trail Blazers (3rd offense, 16th defense) [11-5, 7-9, 11-5, 10-6, 12-4, +2]


The Trail Blazers were set up as a team few had reason to get excited about entering the season. That’s what happens when you spend the previous two quarterfinals getting swept, with last year’s coming despite homecourt advantage as a #3 seed. To their credit, Portland overcame adversity even before the games started this season, getting off to a strong start after the passing of owner Paul G. Allen while stabilizing midseason behind some impressive defensive improvement. Unfortunately, C Jusuf Nurkic suffered a catastrophic leg injury shortly after SG CJ McCollum had to miss time due to a rare knee injury. McCollum is back to aid All-Star PG Damian Lillard, while midseason acquisitions C Enes Kanter and SG Rodney Hood ensured that Portland’s talent dropoff would not be steep. In fact, the Trail Blazers had the best offense in the league over the last month of the season, even with the injuries to Nurkic and McCollum. That doesn’t mean their bandwagon should be overflowing – Portland went out of their way to not be the #3 seed again and approached their season finale as a team that would be fine not winning. Despite playing five young starters 40+ minutes each, only one player off the bench, and ceding a 28-point lead to the visiting Kings, the Trail Blazers found a way to win. Now Portland will look to avoid a third straight sweep in the quarterfinals by… playing a team that swept them during the regular season.

#6 – Oklahoma City Thunder (16th offense, 4th defense) [10-6, 11-5, 11-5, 9-7, 8-8, +2]


If you like transcendent star power to be the primary factor in your bandwagon choices, than the Oklahoma City Thunder are for you! All-Star SF Paul George was a two-way force prior to March, looking like a legitimate candidate for MVP and Defensive Player of the Year. PG Russell Westbrook had a miserable start to the season shooting outside of the paint, but he ultimately ensured that triple-doubles in a historical context will start with him and not Hall of Famer Oscar Robertson going forward. C Steven Adams joined George and Westbrook as 100-steal players for the first time, the linchpin to Oklahoma City’s top-five defense. But no West playoff team played worse than Oklahoma City, and while the Thunder squeezed out enough wins to avoid the #8 seed in the regular season’s final week, there are concerns on this bandwagon. Primarily, George’s shoulder issues have impacted his efficiency as a shooter (45.3 percent field goals and 40.6 percent 3s pre-All-Star break, 40.0 percent field goals and 33.6 percent 3s post-All-Star break). Oklahoma City’s bench has been porous all season, but it’s hopeless when SG Dennis Schroder is off. And despite all of those Westbrook triple-doubles over the previous two seasons, Oklahoma City has won a total of three playoff games in that span. They’re in a cush spot for a #6 seed, but somehow failing to take advantage of it would be a major indictment on the coaching staff.

-1SKILLZ

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