The Golden State Warriors are back. You know them. But they’re not taking on the Cleveland Cavaliers this time!!! It’s the Toronto Raptors!
I had the Golden State Warriors here from the autumn. But I had the Boston Celtics meeting the Warriors from the East. They didn’t make it. Neither did the Portland Trail Blazers or Houston Rockets. And the best season for the Milwaukee Bucks since the NBA-ABA merger ended in the Eastern Conference Finals.
So for the first time ever: the Toronto Raptors and the Golden State Warriors.
The Warriors have won more conference titles under head coach Steve Kerr (5) than they won postseason series in the previous 27 years combined (4). Golden State defeated the LA Clippers in 6 in the quarterfinals, despite blowing a historic 31-point third quarter lead in Game 2. Golden State lost center DeMarcus Cousins to a torn quad in the quarterfinals, then lost small forward Kevin Durant in the semifinals to a calf strain; the Warriors still put the Houston Rockets away in 6. The Warriors then swept the Portland Trail Blazers to win the Western Conference Finals, despite not having 2015 NBA Finals MVP Andre Iguodala in Game 4 and trailing by 17+ points in each of the final three games of that series. Golden State didn’t have to face the #2 seed Denver Nuggets while the the Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs lost in the quarterfinals.
While the Warriors were the top seed in the West, the Raptors were the #2 seed in the East. But the Raptors will be the first Eastern conference champion since the 2013 Miami Heat to have homecourt advantage in the NBA Finals. The Raptors lost Game 1 of the quarterfinals to the Orlando Magic before winning in 5. Small forward Kawhi Leonard made the first buzzer beater in Game 7 NBA postseason history to end the semifinals against the Philadelphia 76ers. And even though the Milwaukee Bucks were able to win Games 1 and 2 at home, the Raptors won the Eastern conference finals in 6. The Indiana Pacers, Brooklyn Nets, and Detroit Pistons also failed to get out of the quarterfinals, while the Celtics won their first five playoff games before immediately losing four in a row in the semifinals. (This also leaves the Charlotte Hornets as the only Eastern conference team that hasn’t made the NBA Finals yet.)
For the Warriors, this NBA Finals is their opportunity to be the first team to three-peat since the early 2000s Los Angeles Lakers, as well as clinch the team of the 2010s. The last team to win the Finals in their first appearance in franchise history was the 2006 Miami Heat, but the Dallas Mavericks were also making their first Finals appearance ever. The last team to win the Finals in their first appearance against a team that had already been there was the San Antonio Spurs in 1999, over the New York Knicks.
I’m going to keep this gameplan more concise than previous years’ versions – after all, this is a day of post! And now, more on Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant’s childhood teams:
VC RT @iGett_Bucketz: @KDTrey5 why did you grow up a raptor fan
— Kevin Durant (@KDTrey5) January 23, 2014
@skittlesshady i lived in Toronto for about a year. Loved it up there just too cold for my southern self
— Stephen Curry (@StephenCurry30) July 24, 2010
#inhighschool at oak hill I seen raptor footprints in the snow…I was so scared cuz we lived in the woods…our power went dead that night!
— Kevin Durant (@KDTrey5) July 22, 2009
RAPTORS PERIMETER OFFENSE vs. WARRIORS PERIMETER DEFENSE
This is the matchup that may decide the series. Toronto’s offense starts with Kawhi Leonard, the 2014 Finals MVP. In his only matchup against the Warriors this season, Leonard scored 37 points on 14-of-24 FGs and 3-of-6 3s. Leonard averaged a career-high 26.6 points during the regular season, and he upped that to 31.2 points per game on 50.7% FGs in the playoffs. Andre Iguodala may start on Leonard, and eventually Kevin Durant will see him, but Leonard is going to get his. Point guard Kyle Lowry is the only other perimeter player who will approach double-digit field goal attempts, and he’s not an aggressive scorer at this stage of his career. Lowry figures to see All-Defense selection Klay Thompson, while Golden State point guard Stephen Curry hangs out with Toronto shooting guard Danny Green. Lowry played well in a December win at Golden State, and his 3-point shooting will be pivotal. Danny Green is shooting only 31.4% from 3 in the playoffs, so he needs to get it going again. The Raptors will also need big men Marc Gasol and Pascal Siakam to hit 3s, along with rotation figures Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka and Norman Powell; Ibaka and Siakam have struggled from deep in the playoffs but VanVleet and Powell have shot their way into relevance. Toronto got past the best defense in the league in Milwaukee. Golden State presents a different challenge, but one they can overcome.
Advantage: Draw/Raptors
RAPTORS INTERIOR OFFENSE vs. WARRIORS INTERIOR DEFENSE
The November overtime win for the Raptors saw Leonard go off, but the real key to the win was Siakam, who turned ten field goal attempts into 26 points. Former Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green did not play in that meeting; Draymond Green did play in the December meeting that saw Siakam scored 13 points on 5-of-10 FGs. Siakam is Toronto’s second option on offense, and he is also Toronto’s least experienced starter. Expect his performance to vary sharply. The Raptors acquired center Marc Gasol from Memphis in February, so this will be the first time the Raptors deploy him against Golden State; in the regular season, that player was Jonas Valanciunas, who was traded for Gasol. The Warriors will counter with center DeMarcus Cousins, who didn’t debut until January and has missed most of his first career postseason due to injury. The Raptors will need backup big Ibaka to be a threat in the paint, while Golden State backup big Kevon Looney has been a key contributor, especially when Golden State is trailing.
Advantage: Warriors
RAPTORS CONTROL vs. WARRIORS PRESSURE
Lowry’s thumb has been an issue that has affected his passing and ballhandling more than his shooting. But he averaged only 1.8 turnovers per game in the conference finals, and he has two or fewer turnovers in 14 of 18 postseason games. The Warriors are not bad at forcing turnovers, but they’re not special either. Lowry and VanVleet started together in the December win at Golden State that saw Lowry record 12 assists and only two turnovers.
Advantage: Raptors
RAPTORS PRESSURE vs. WARRIORS CONTROL
Lowry’s thumb injury is why I have to downgrade Toronto here. Normally, Lowry is a pest at taking the ball away, averaging 1.4 steals this season. But Lowry didn’t have multiple steals in any of the conference finals games. The Warriors are prone to careless stretches, with Curry averaging less than 2 assists per turnover in the playoffs and Durant averaging 3.8 turnovers per postseason game. But they have a great passing power forward in Draymond Green, while Iguodala is the key exception when it comes to high reward-low risk playmaking (nearly 5 assists per turnover this postseason).
Advantage: Draw/Warriors
RAPTORS INTERIOR DEFENSE vs. WARRIORS INTERIOR OFFENSE
What will happen to Gasol? The Warriors made Western conference starting centers Ivica Zubac, Clint Capela and Enes Kanter disintegrate. Gasol’s last four games against the Warriors were all blowout losses in which Gasol failed to block a shot. But Gasol is good enough to stay on the floor against Golden State due to his offensive tools, and Cousins’ presence allows Gasol to stay on the floor more as well. Gasol did a solid job against Eastern conference starting centers Nikola Vucevic, Joel Embiid and Brook Lopez – all of whom have inside-out scoring ability. Draymond Green looks to score more when Durant and Cousins are out, but Green’s value on offense is more about what he does when the ball is not in his hands, while the other Golden State bigs are there to screen and scrap on the offensive glass. Siakam is mobile enough to stay with Draymond Green, while Ibaka will need to protect the rim and rebound with energy.
Advantage: Raptors
RAPTORS PERIMETER DEFENSE vs. WARRIORS PERIMETER OFFENSE
This is the reason why Golden State is the best offense in the league. How will Kevin Durant figure into the mix? On one hand, Durant was playing dominant basketball at the time of his injury earlier this month. On the other – the Warriors haven’t lost since his departure, including the night of his injury. Curry had the most dominant scoring stretch in a sweep ever, though he was not great in Golden State’s home loss to the Raptors in December. Klay Thompson’s volume has skyrocketed in Durant’s stead, but his efficiency has waned (37.9% FGs, 34.4% 3s in Western conference finals). The only other consistent perimeter shooter the Warriors have other than their three All-Stars is Iguodala, who is shooting 37% from 3 this postseason. Danny Green is a strong defender, while Lowry always makes his presence felt via charges and physical play. Of course, Toronto happens to have former Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard, though his peak defensive ability will be situational more than consistent. The Raptors held Milwaukee to 31% 3s in the Eastern conference finals. But Golden State will get theirs on sheer firepower.
Advantage: Warriors
RAPTORS SPECIAL TEAMS vs. WARRIORS SPECIAL TEAMS
I’ve explained basketball special teams here in the Lightweight Reports. Golden State has the Strength in Numbers moniker, but those numbers will be in flux with Durant and Cousins’ uncertain roles. The Raptors have settled in on VanVleet, Ibaka and Powell in their rotation. Golden State can trust Iguodala, Looney and Shaun Livingston – but they’re more likely to throw out wacky lineups that will bleed points, similar to Milwaukee. Both teams are very good on the break, very good at the line and focused in transition defense.
Advantage: Draw/Raptors
RAPTORS COACHING vs. WARRIORS COACHING
Nick Nurse has only been with one NBA team, and he won three playoff series in his first season as a head coach. He’s trying to become what Kerr already is – a champion in his first year as bench boss.
Advantage: Warriors
INTANGIBLES
The Raptors earned this homecourt advantage by sweeping Golden State in the regular season. Their one injury concern outside of the aches and pains of Leonard and Lowry is whether or not OG Anunoby will return from his April appendectomy. Patrick McCaw used to play for the Warriors. Alfonzo McKinnie used to play for the Raptors. Leonard’s last playoff game against the Warriors was also his last playoff game with the Spurs – Game 1 of the 2017 Western conference finals, which ended with Leonard injuring his ankle landing on Zaza Pachulia’s foot. Revenge!!! Drake and E-40 are here too, for what it’s worth.
Advantage: Draw/Raptors
BOTTOM LINE
There’s one thing missing on Curry’s résumé, and one thing missing for these Warriors in the Finals: a Finals MVP, and a Game 7 win. Curry still doesn’t have a Finals MVP, and he would be only the third point guard to win that award since 1990. But I see the Raptors being the more stable team of this series, one that has overcome deficits of 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0 already in these playoffs. I have them overcoming a 3-2 deficit and winning Game 7 at home behind Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard – who would then walk after the best single season with a franchise in NBA history.
Prediction: Raptors in 7.
Almost time for another Drake Night ? pic.twitter.com/Ot09Yi5PsJ
— 95.7 The Game (@957thegame) November 29, 2018
-1SKILLZ