2014 #NFL Week 3 picks (6-10 in Week 2, even in 2014): TB, BUF, CIN, CLE, DET, JAX, NE, NO, NYG, PHI, DAL, SF, MIA, DEN, PIT, CHI
— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) September 18, 2014
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The Buccaneers are the only team with a new head coach that hasn’t won a game this season. What gives, Lovie Smith?! When Smith coached the Chicago Bears in 2011, the defense allowed Atlanta QB Matt Ryan to pass for 329 yards, but no TDs in 47 attempts. Chicago won 30-12 that day. Of course, the first time Ryan faced Smith’s Bears, this happened:
The last time the Falcons and Buccaneers faced each other, Atlanta gave up a season-high 41 points to Tampa Bay, with Tampa Bay RB Bobby Rainey racking up 163 yards rushing and three total TDs. Tampa will need to show more offensively, and they’ll welcome a chance to see Atlanta’s front seven.
San Diego at Buffalo: Last week, the Chargers showed once again that they can beat anyone. Of course, they have shown that they can lose to anyone as well, so enter the 2-0 Bills. These teams don’t play often, as this will be San Diego QB Philip Rivers’ fourth start against the Bills; Rivers is 1-1 in Buffalo. The last time the Chargers played against the Bills was a 37-10 laugher in San Diego in 2011, with San Diego TE Antonio Gates notching two TDs. Buffalo needs to force mistakes, and the home crowd will be behind their formidable defensive line – I’m not expecting a repeat performance from last week from the Chargers offense.
Tennessee at Cincinnati: The Bengals are off to a nice start, but they’re losing bodies on both sides of the ball. WR A.J. Green’s toe is at best an annoyance, while LB Vontaze Burfict has a concussion. Cincinnati has won with strong defense and mistake-free offense, not giving the ball away or allowing a sack yet this season. These teams also don’t play often, as it will be only the third meeting since the start of the 2008 season. Tennessee did not show that they could stop the run at home last week, and they should expect to see a heavy dose of Cincinnati RBs Giovani Bernard and rookie Jeremy Hill in this one.
Baltimore at Cleveland: Last November, Cleveland finally beat the Ravens for the first time in twelve meetings. A major factor in that win for the Browns was stopping Baltimore’s rushing attack: Baltimore QB Joe Flacco led the Ravens that day with 25 rushing yards. Cleveland has the personnel to matchup with Baltimore’s receivers and get after the quarterback – but can they stop the run? They have allowed 5.5 yards per carry over the first two weeks of the season, and the Ravens know that they can’t have Flacco chucking 40-50 passes, especially on the road. Baltimore won’t allow Cleveland’s offense to breathe much either, so this will be a slobberknocker.
Green Bay at Detroit: The two games between these teams last season were a wash. Detroit looked terrible in Green Bay without Calvin Johnson in a 22-9 October loss. Green Bay looked worse in Detroit last Thanksgiving without Aaron Rodgers, as Detroit racked up a season-high 241 rushing yards in a 40-10 blowout win. The Packers allowed 37 unanswered points in that one, and it was the last good moment in Jim Schwartz’ time in Detroit. The Packers are going to score with Detroit’s annually thin secondary holding them back, but this would be a good time for the Lions to get their ground game going to supplement the potent air attack.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville: Indianapolis should have QB Andrew Luck throw early and often after a mindless fourth quarter of playcalling allowed the visiting Eagles to steal a win on Monday Night Football. Jacksonville was no match for the Colts last season, getting outscored 67-13 in games started by QBs Blaine Gabbert and current starter Chad Henne. Jacksonville has lit the entire offense on fire, cutting OT Cameron Bradfield after he had a role in allowing ten sacks in Washington, while head coach Gus Bradley has been ticked with his rookie wide receivers. If the Jaguars start slow, look for rookie QB Blake Bortles to make his debut, Ben Roethlisberger style. And with the return of SS Johnathan Cyprien, perhaps the Jaguars can catch the Colts slipping on a short week for Jacksonville’s home opener.
Oakland at New England: The Raiders return again to the scene of the “Tuck Rule Game.” The good news for Oakland is that they would benefit from the fact that there is no more tuck rule. The bad news is that Oakland’s pass rush has been nonexistent through two weeks, making their chances for their first win in New England since 1994 very challenging. The last time the Raiders played in New England was Randy Moss’ first game as a Raider, while the two teams’ last meeting was a 31-19 Patriots win in 2011. Oakland’s terrible run offense also won’t help rookie QB Derek Carr pull the upset on the East Coast.
Minnesota at New Orleans: It’s been three years since the Saints and Vikings hooked up (a 42-20 Saints win in Minnesota, featuring five TD passes from New Orleans QB Drew Brees), and Minnesota hasn’t beaten New Orleans since 2008. The Saints are 0-2 after allowing two game-winning FGs; perhaps their home opener will ignite the pressure that has been missing for most of the first two weeks. Minnesota faltered under the weight of four INTs by QB Matt Cassel at home, and his handoff options either lack talent (RB Matt Asiata) or experience (rookie RB Jerick McKinnon). Brees lost RB Mark Ingram to a broken hand, so he’ll have RB Khiry Robinson to complement RB Pierre Thomas. New Orleans has serious issues if they can’t hold the Vikings under 20 points in this one.
Houston at New York Giants: In 2010, the Giants went to Houston and blew the Texans out 34-10, as New York QB Eli Manning racked up 297 passing yards and three TDs. New York has the NFL’s longest current drought of games without scoring 30+ points at 17, and they have only 28 points through the first two weeks of the season. Even without rookie OLB Jadeveon Clowney, Houston has shown that their defense is going to be disruptive, as they have allowed only 20 points. Manning needs to at least protect the football: he’s thrown 31 INTs since the start of the 2013 season. Houston has been content with giving RB Arian Foster a ridiculous amount of carries; if New York can stop the run without ILB Jon Beason then they will increase their chances of baiting Houston QB Ryan Fitzpatrick into mistakes.
Washington at Philadelphia: It didn’t matter who quarterbacked the Eagles in 2013 vs. Washington, as QBs Michael Vick and current starter Nick Foles both won starts last season. Washington QB Kirk Cousins will start his first game of the season, and he is expected to have former Philadelphia WR DeSean Jackson in the lineup as well. Philadelphia may be without ILB Mychal Kendricks, which will show up in the run game and in coverage in the middle of the field. However, Cousins is a turnover prone passer who is average at best when it comes to downfield effectiveness. Philadelphia has started both games slowly this season, but they took leads of 33-7 and 24-0 against Washington last season; Foles must be sharper against Washington’s pass rush.
Dallas at Saint Louis: This will be only the third time the Cowboys play in Saint Louis against the Rams, and the first time since 2008. Dallas slammed the Rams in 2011 and 2013 by a combined score of 65-14; RB DeMarco Murray went off for 253 rushing yards in 2011, while he had 175 more in 2013. The Rams haven’t exactly figured out how to stop the run, while the Cowboys have figured out that Murray should get the ball when he’s healthy (though Murray needs to stop fumbling). The Rams started QB Austin Davis in Tampa Bay and were rewarded with a game-winning drive, yet head coach Jeff Fisher is deferring to injured veteran QB Shaun Hill if he is healthy. The Rams are going to get WR Stedman Bailey back from suspension, and he should team up with WRs Brian Quick and Austin Pettis to give the Rams a semblance of a passing offense against Dallas’ shaky defense. But if Murray gets going again, the Rams won’t have the ball long enough to keep up.
San Francisco at Arizona: Something to consider: the 49ers started 1-2 last season, dealing with off-field issues, a humiliating Sunday Night Football loss, and a loss in the division. They have beaten the Cardinals four straight times, but the margin of victory has shrunk every time. The biggest weapon against the Cardinals last season was TE Vernon Davis, who scored three TDs and racked up 225 receiving yards in two games vs. Arizona, but Davis is dealing with an ankle injury. Simply put, San Francisco needs QB Colin Kaepernick to play better, especially in the second half (the 49ers have only three second half points this season). Arizona has won with aggressive defense and clutch special teams play, hiding their offensive line issues and, more recently, backup QB Drew Stanton, who may have to start again if QB Carson Palmer’s shoulder doesn’t re-charge.
Kansas City at Miami: The Chiefs have shown that their WRs don’t scare anyone, while Miami has not shown that they can do anything consistent on offense. The last time the Chiefs won in Miami, it was a Friday night game in 2005 to avoid Hurricane Wilma; the Dolphins have won the last three meetings, with the most recent a 31-3 win in 2011. The Chiefs should be avoiding Miami’s pass rushers by keeping it on the ground, though an ankle injury to RB Jamaal Charles complicates that somewhat. Likewise, Miami has to deal with the absence of RB Knowshon Moreno, though QB Ryan Tannehill should have opportunities to make plays against Kansas City’s vulnerable secondary. The Chiefs better be ready for the weather in Miami, especially considering their depth issues defensively and Miami’s strive for tempo.
Denver at Seattle: The Super Bowl rematch!!! These teams used to be division rivals, but the Broncos haven’t played a game in Seattle since 2002. Denver is getting WR Wes Welker back from suspension, and TE Julius Thomas is already up to four TD catches. Seattle allowed three TDs to TE Antonio Gates in San Diego, while San Diego used a combination of a relatively run-heavy game plan and weak side formations to keep the ball away from the Seahawks and make CB Richard Sherman move off of his perch. Denver’s offense should be better, while the defense should be better prepared to keep the game from getting away from the Broncos.
Pittsburgh at Carolina: The Panthers won the first ever meeting between these two teams in 1996; the Steelers have won every game since, including a 27-3 victory in 2010. Carolina gained only 119 yards in that game against the eventual AFC champions. Things are different now, as the Panthers have QB Cam Newton, while Pittsburgh has the fewest interceptions in the NFL since the start of the 2011 season. Carolina should be able to move the ball some, but they are banged up at almost every position offensively. Pittsburgh will need their explosive receiving corps to step up in primetime; they should be ready to go after playing on Thursday in Week Two.
Chicago at New York Jets: The Jets have lost three straight games against the Bears, including a 38-34 thriller in 2010. Chicago WR Santonio Holmes was a Jet that season, and both teams wound up losing Conference Championship games; neither team has made the playoffs since. The Jets can’t trust their corners right now, and while Chicago WRs Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey aren’t burners, they should still present a formidable challenge for the New York DBs. New York will want to keep the ball on the ground against Chicago’s bad run defense, though New York QB Geno Smith could use WR Eric Decker. Ultimately, this game will come down to how well Cutler can play against a front seven that eliminates the run and is showing signs of getting to the quarterback.
It’s not often that you get a Super Bowl rematch; Sunday’s game will mark only the sixth, and the first since 1997 (PC: Sportsnaut).