Week 4 is the first Sunday of autumn, and a team will have a bye week every week until Thanksgiving. Football fever, catch it!
Let’s take a look at the six teams on bye this week:
Arizona: A 3-0 start wasn’t something I expected from this team. Only the Bengals have allowed fewer points, while QBs Carson Palmer (shoulder) and Drew Stanton have not thrown an interception in 100 passes. Teams are averaging only 2.9 yards per rush against them. Folks an Arizona know not to judge a team by the first quadrant of the NFL season. The 2012 Cardinals turned a 4-0 start into a 5-11 bloodletting, which is why head coach Bruce Arians is here in the first place.
Cincinnati: I expected this Bengals team to take another step, as they have improved each of the last three seasons. Again, starting 3-0 isn’t a cause to throw a celebration – finishing 3-0 in the playoffs is. Can this Bengals team do that? They have allowed the fewest points in the league, while new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has been able to run the ball more than pass the ball. But Jackson was around for the last 3-0 Cincinnati start – the 2006 Bengals lost the last three games of that season to finish 8-8 and out of the playoffs.
Cleveland: The Browns are 1-2, and all three games have come down to the final seconds and a field goal. Cleveland is one four teams that have yet to have a pass intercepted, and of those four, the Browns have taken the fewest sacks (four). The Browns are trying to find creative ways to use first-round rookie QB Johnny Manziel, but unlike holdover flameouts like Matt Schaub, Matt Cassel, and Chad Henne, starting QB Brian Hoyer hasn’t given the Browns a reason to turn things over to the future just yet. Cleveland’s biggest problem is their defense, particularly against the run. They’re getting gashed for 5.2 yards per rush.
Denver: The Broncos are 2-1 after taking that loss in Seattle (and earning a rant from me about the overtime rules narrative). Denver last started 2-1 in 2007, a season that ended out of the playoffs. The Broncos are still putting up points, but the rebuilt defense is still finding its way, particularly after getting an up-close feel of Russell Wilson’s clutch gene. TE Julius Thomas already has five TD catches, but WR Demaryius Thomas has had a slow start to the season. The Broncos are the only AFC team to start their schedule against three 2013 playoff teams.
St. Louis: Where is the pass rush?! The Rams (1-2, like every season under head coach Jeff Fisher) line up four first round picks on the defensive line. They lost DE Chris Long to injury in Week 1, but they were lauded for their depth. So far, rookie DT Aaron Donald has one sack … and that’s it! Dead last in the NFL, and they still can’t stop the run (allowing 5.1 yards per rush).
Seattle: The Seahawks (2-1) are the only NFC team to start their schedule against three playoff teams. They last started 2-1 in 2012, QB Russell Wilson’s rookie season and the first recognized season of the Legion of Boom. The offense is carrying the load for Seattle so far, with RB Marshawn Lynch up to five red zone TDs already. The defense is allowing an NFL-low 2.8 yards per rush, but they haven’t been great against the pass overall (only five sacks, two INTs, and 96.5 passer rating allowed). Despite the relatively slow start for the defense, Wilson has continued to improve, as he leads the NFL in passer rating through three weeks (108.9).
2014 #NFL Week 4 picks (9-7 in Week 3, +2 in 2014): NYG, BAL, GB, HOU, IND, DET, MIA, PIT, SD, MIN, SF, NO, NE
— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) September 25, 2014
New York Giants at Washington: Here’s what I said at the end of Thursday’s “Observations” article previewing this game: The Giants did a good job making Washington QB Kirk Cousins look terrible (19/49, 149 yards, no TDs, two INTs, 20-6 loss at MetLife Stadium). Cousins has more weapons, a better system, and home field advantage. But New York has the secondary to match up with Washington’s receivers. The question for the Giants is whether or not they can get to the QB. They pressured Fitzpatrick into turnovers in Week 3. They failed to do that in Week 2 against Arizona QB Drew Stanton. On the flipside, QB Eli Manning finally had a turnover-free performance in Week 3, and Washington’s already-brutal secondary will not have CB DeAngelo Hall for the remainder of the season (Achilles’). Manning will have to be effective on the road through the air; it is doubtful that Jennings has an encore performance left in him on the ground after only three days off.
All you need to know is that Manning threw four red zone TD passes to tight ends Larry Donnell and Daniel Fells and ran for another, while Cousins threw four INTs in the second half and lost a fumble. Another Thursday Night Blowout.
Carolina at Baltimore:
I’m ready for sunday @89SteveSmith…are you?! lol #bloodandguts #panthernation pic.twitter.com/0S8GeUJTxo
— DeAngelo Williams (@DeAngeloRB) September 25, 2014
Blood and Guts: The Steve Smith Bowl! Smith has been great to start the season, ranking third in the AFC in receiving yards behind Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown. Carolina couldn’t protect QB Cam Newton against the Steelers in Week 3, and despite RB DeAngelo Williams’ goggles, there won’t be much of a rushing presence against Baltimore’s hefty defensive line. With LT Eugene Monroe injured, Baltimore doesn’t seem likely to push the ball much downfield, but they’ll be sure to test a Carolina run defense that was embarrassed Sunday night.
Green Bay at Chicago: The Packers return to Soldier Field, the site of Chicago’s heart after Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Randall Cobb ripped it out in Week 17 last year:
Green Bay’s offense is off to a tough start this year, particularly running the football. RB Eddie Lacy didn’t run all that well against the Bears in Week 17 (66 yards, one TD on 21 rushes), but he ripped them for 150 in November. Green Bay’s defense has also been mostly unimpressive, and OLB Clay Matthews is dealing with a groin injury. Chicago RB Matt Forte is also frustrated by his slow start and should have more holes against Green Bay. I believe a big special teams play will figure into the outcome of this game.
Buffalo at Houston: Both teams started 2-0 before losing in Week 3. In the last meeting (2012), the Texans beat a Bills team led at QB by current Houston QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 21-9. Expect Buffalo to keep it on the ground against a Houston team that allowed 176 rushing yards to Giants RB Rashad Jennings last week. Houston RB Arian Foster is dealing with a hamstring injury, so even if he plays, Fitzpatrick has to do a better job of taking care of the ball – three more INTs will have the Texans losing at home to his old team. Buffalo struggled in pass protection in Week 3, and now they have to block Houston DE J.J. Watt.
Tennessee at Indianapolis: The Titans have lost six straight games in Indianapolis, and now starting QB Jake Locker is dealing with his latest injury (right wrist). Backup QB Charlie Whitehurst hasn’t started a game for head coach Ken Whisenhunt, but in the past he has always been a checkdown artist who doesn’t make plays. Whitehurst has three TD passes in 155 career attempts; Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck had four TD passes in 39 attempts in Jacksonville in Week 3. The Colts are far from a powerhouse defensively, but then again, neither are the Titans. For what it’s worth, Luck has struggled against Tennessee despite never losing to them (two TDs, four INTs, 71.3 passer rating, 4-0 vs. Titans).
Detroit at New York Jets: These two teams are 6-6 against each other, but the Jets have won the last three meetings. The last meeting came down to overtime, where the Jets won in Detroit 23-20 (Detroit DT Ndamukong Suh had to fill in at kicker and missed an extra point in regulation). Detroit WR Calvin Johnson was also stuck on Revis Island in 2010 (one catch, 13 yards). That won’t be a problem in this game, as the New York cornerbacks have struggled in coverage. This will be Detroit’s first game without ILB Stephen Tulloch (ACL) since he signed with the Lions in 2011, though the stellar Detroit run defense held up the rest of the game against the Packers in Week 3 without him.
Miami at Oakland: This game will be played in London, a place that makes little sense to place an NFL franchise. Of course, there’s a joke in there somewhere about sending two of the most dysfunctional teams of the 21st century there. There’s hell to pay for the loser of this contest. The Raiders haven’t started 0-3 since their nadir period in 2006, where they finished 2-14 and rewarded themselves with QB JaMarcus Russell; head coach Dennis Allen needs to break this nine-game losing streak. The Dolphins have won four straight against the Raiders; they need to keep the ball on the ground to give embattled QB Ryan Tannehill some relief.
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh: The Buccaneers have have never won in Pittsburgh, scoring only 15 total points in three losses there (1976, 1983, 2006). There’s only room for one group of Bucs in Pittsburgh, and they play baseball. Lovie Smith’s team looks a lot like Leslie Frazier’s Vikings – perhaps because Frazier is the team’s defensive coordinator – as they have been brutal in pass defense. WR Antonio Brown should have a field day if the nine days off isn’t enough for Tampa Bay to fix their cluelessness on that side of the field. Tampa Bay will start QB Mike Glennon, but the absence of offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford has really held the offense back.
Jacksonville at San Diego: The Chargers have played the Jaguars three times in the last four seasons, winning all of those games by a combined score of 100-33. San Diego won in Jacksonville 24-6 last season, racking up six sacks. All of Jacksonville’s pass catchers from that game are either injured, suspended, or on other teams, while QB Chad Henne has been benched. Jacksonville rookie QB Blake Bortles is making his first start, and he offers a total talent upgrade. Unfortunately, he is on the road, surrounded by rookie receivers, an inept offensive line, and the worst defense in the league.
Atlanta at Minnesota: Oh look, another rookie starter. Due to QB Matt Cassel’s season-ending foot injury, the future is now for Minnesota rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater. Like Bortles, Bridgewater doesn’t have a run game or good pass protection (LT Matt Kalil is struggling). Unlike Bortles, Bridgewater has at least adequate targets and a competent defense. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has been unstoppable indoors – can he handle an improved Minnesota defense at TCF Bank Stadium?
Philadelphia at San Francisco: The Eagles have owned the 49ers in the Bay Area, winning four straight meetings in California. Last time the Eagles were in NoCal, QB Nick Foles did this:
At the rate these teams are going, the 49ers will start fast, and the Eagles will finish fast. Interestingly, San Francisco head coach Jim Harbaugh went to Philadelphia in 2011 and saw his team come back from a 23-3 2nd half deficit to win 24-23, getting 127 rushing yards from RB Frank Gore. The 49ers secondary has been a mess without a pass rush, so look for the 49ers to re-establish the ground game with Gore and rookie RB Carlos Hyde.
New Orleans at Dallas: The Cowboys went to New Orleans last season for Sunday Night Football, and this happened: 
The last time the Cowboys beat the Saints in Dallas was 1991; the Saints have come into Texas and have won the last four meetings (2004, 2006, 2010, 2012), averaging 33.3 points in those wins. New Orleans won’t have RBs Mark Ingram (injured) and Darren Sproles (Eagles) this time, and those two combined for 248 total yards and three TDs last year against Dallas. This is still QB Drew Brees against a Dallas secondary that was lit up for 327 yards and three TDs by St. Louis QB Austin Davis in Week 3. Dallas should be better this time, especially offensively, but this is still a tough matchup for them defensively.
New England at Kansas City: The Chiefs rarely play the Patriots, and for whatever reason, the games wind up on Monday Night Football. This will be only the seventh meeting since 2000, and the fourth Monday Night Football game. Kansas City beat the Patriots 26-16 the last time these teams played in Missouri (2005), but New England has won the other five games, including a 34-3 disaster on MNF in 2011. Ten seasons ago, New England head coach Bill Belichick and Kansas City head coach Andy Reid (former Philadelphia head coach) met in the Super Bowl; Belichick is 4-0 against Reid’s teams. Belichick better have a special plan for Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles.
Chip Kelly (Oregon/Philadelphia) will meet up against Jim Harbaugh (Stanford/San Francisco) to try and stay undefeated in the Pac-12, I mean, NFL. (PC: ESPN)