Week 5 = October. Quite possibly the best month in sports is underway, though February may have something to say about that (Super Bowl, NBA All-Star Weekend).
Let’s check in on the teams on bye:
Miami: The Dolphins were last 2-2 in 2010, and they also had their bye in Week 5 that season. Miami hasn’t had a winning season since 2008, and their win-loss record in December/January over the last five years is 11-14. Miami might want to get out ahead and control this division. Poor linebacker play hurt Miami pretty bad in losses to Buffalo and Kansas City, and they need to tackle better against teams with decent RBs. They also need to keep their runners involved and not get QB Ryan Tannehill beat up for no reason; Miami has 73 rushes in two wins, 41 in two losses.
Oakland: The Raiders signed veteran DEs Justin Tuck and LaMarr Woodley, DT Antonio Smith, and CBs Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown to help upgrade a bad defense. Oakland isn’t good defensively, and their pass defense is still embarrassing 1, but that’s not why they are 0-4. Despite adding veteran RB Maurice Jones-Drew, WR James Jones, OT Donald Penn, and G Austin Howard, none of them mattered because veteran QB Matt Schaub failed to win the starting job. Rookie QB Derek Carr (only 5.5 yards per attempt) wasn’t supposed to be the savior for this team, he’s getting the worst run support in the league, 2 and now he’s injured. Tony Sparano, fired as Miami head coach during the 2011 season, is now the interim head coach. But Oakland GM Reggie McKenzie hasn’t upgraded the roster nearly well enough. Despite all of the poor seasons since moving from Los Angeles in 1995, this is only Oakland’s second time in the last 20 seasons that they started 0-4. The other time was 2006, another year where Oakland had the worst offense in the NFL 3, and the team finished 2-14. 4
2014 #NFL Week 5 picks (10-3 in Week 4, +9 in 2014): GB, CAR, DAL, DET, IND, PIT, NO, NYG, PHI, CLE, DEN, NYJ, SF, CIN, SEA
— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 2, 2014
Minnesota at Green Bay: Here’s what I said at the end of Thursday’s “Observations” article previewing this game:
The Vikings and Packers tied last season in Green Bay, a game where the Vikings blew a 23-7 fourth quarter lead and both teams traded field goals and three-and-outs in overtime. The Vikings will miss Adrian Peterson here, as he averaged 117.7 rushing yards in 14 career games against the Packers, most out of any NFC foe. Minnesota also has to decide between injured rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater (ankle) on the road and on a short week, or deposed 2011 first-round QB Christian Ponder. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers knows what he’s doing, and he’s usually made mincemeat of the Vikings secondary (26 TDs, four INTs, 117.9 passer rating in 12 career games vs. Vikings). Expect the Vikings to get Asiata and McKinnon as many touches as possible, but if Rodgers puts up the digits early, it might get ugly. We’re all about to see what first-year Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer can do with this pass defense; when Zimmer was Cincinnati’s DC last season, the Bengals sacked Rodgers four times and intercepted him twice in a 34-30 Bengals win in Ohio.
All you need to know is that Ponder started, Rodgers had three first-half TD passes, one of Ponder’s two first-half INTs was returned for a TD by OLB Julius Peppers, and the Packers took a 42-0 lead into the fourth quarter. Another Thursday Night Blowout.
Chicago at Carolina: The Panthers organization has been under fire all season, whether it was DE Greg Hardy’s offseason issues or the ugly fallout of Baltimore WR Steve Smith lighting up Carolina GM Dave Gettleman for how his release was handled. In more pressing issues, QB Cam Newton has the look of a player who won’t last the season, while the defense allowed 75 points over the last two weeks, the worst two-game stretch since November 2008. All of the well-paid backs (RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, FB Mike Tolbert) are injured. Newton will have a full complement of receivers, along with former Chicago TE Greg Olsen. Chicago will be starting undersized undrafted rookie Michael Ola on QB Jay Cutler’s blind side; Carolina needs to force turnovers.
Houston at Dallas: The battle of Texas! The Texans won their first game in franchise history against the Cowboys, but the Cowboys have won the other two meetings, including a 27-13 2010 victory in Houston where Dallas QB Tony Romo found WR Roy Williams for two scores. A Houston-based team hasn’t won in Dallas since 1988, when the Oilers beat the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Both teams want to run the ball, but right now, Dallas RB DeMarco Murray is killing it. Houston RB Arian Foster struggled mightily in Week 4, gaining only six yards on eight carries as he deals with a hamstring injury.
Buffalo at Detroit: The return of Jim Schwartz! The Buffalo DC makes his first appearance in Detroit, where he was the head coach from 2009 until 2013. Buffalo’s front seven has played well, especially against the run. 5 Detroit WR Calvin Johnson is also less than 100 percent, so QB Matthew Stafford will need to find WR Golden Tate and rookie TE Eric Ebron more often. Buffalo is bringing QB Kyle Orton into a tough situation, as Detroit DC Teryl Austin has the Lions off to an impressive start defensively. 6
Baltimore at Indianapolis:
The Ravens have never won in Indianapolis (0-5), the town the Baltimore Colts moved to 30 years ago. This is actually a rematch of the 2012-2013 Wild Card game that the Ravens won in Baltimore, 24-9. Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck failed to throw a TD pass in 54 attempts, turning the ball over twice and taking two sacks. Of course, Baltimore’s starting defense has drastically changed since then. 7 Luck has been on a tear, leading the league with 13 TD passes as he appears to take his place at the top of the QB chain – keeping the Colts undefeated in Indianapolis versus the Ravens should convey how far his game has come since he was a rookie.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: The Steelers probably got their annual “loss to a team they have no business losing to” out the way last week against the Buccaneers, and I’m just not sure how the Jaguars are going to defend Pittsburgh WR Antonio Brown. Brown has been a lock for five catches and 50 yards for a record-straight 20 games now, and Jacksonville has been the worst team in the league other than Tampa at defending the pass. 8 The Jaguars are starting rookie QB Blake Bortles for the first time at home; the last time they faced Pittsburgh was 2011, when then-rookie QB Blaine Gabbert threw for only 109 yards and was sacked five times. Bortles has been compared to Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger, and Pittsburgh has actually intercepted the fewest passes in the league since losing Super Bowl XLV. Roethlisberger should have plenty of opportunities down the field to show the rookie how it’s done.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The good news for the Saints is that they are back home, where they beat the Buccaneers 42-17 last year to make the playoffs and have a nine-game winning streak. The bad news for the Saints is that $54 million FS Jairus Byrd is now out for the season with a knee injury, after failing to impress in September. New Orleans DC Rob Ryan was fired by Dallas after a 2012 season in which his defense did a terrible job of overcoming injury, particularly to his defensive backs. Tampa Bay QB Mike Glennon has an opportunity to run with the starting job, but he’ll be without rookie WR Mike Evans this month. Tampa Bay is playing the worst pass defense in the league, and New Orleans QB Drew Brees has thrown more TD passes against the Buccaneers (38 in 17 games, 100.6 passer rating) than any other team.
Atlanta at New York Giants: The last time the Falcons faced the Giants, it was a 34-0 shellacking of the Giants at the Georgia Dome in 2012. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan had a similar performance that day like the one he had on Thursday Night Football this season, completing 23 of 28 passes for 270 yards and three TDs. New York is getting solid play from their secondary, as SS Antrel Rolle has pointed out about CB Prince Amukamara. 9 The game is in New Jersey, and the Falcons haven’t beaten the Giants there in ten years. Atlanta also gave up 558 yards (241 rushing) in Minnesota in Week 4; New York QB Eli Manning is hot, but all the rushing yards should be there for RB Rashad Jennings.
Saint Louis at Philadelphia: The Rams have named QB Austin Davis as the starter for the rest of the season, as he relieved QB Shaun Hill by completing 73 percent of his passes and leading a fourth-quarter comeback in Tampa Bay in Week 2. Davis also lit the Cowboys up for 327 yards and three TDs, but threw two backbreaking INTs in that game as well. Davis targets WR Brian Quick and TEs Jared Cook and Lance Kendricks; the Eagles will be without ILB Mychal Kendricks again, which will hurt Philadelphia’s pass defense. The Eagles get OT Lane Johnson back from suspension, and they need him to help get RB LeSean McCoy untracked. The Rams still can’t stop the run, but McCoy has rushed for only 39 yards on 29 carries over the last two games.
Cleveland at Tennessee: The Tennessee coaching staff has an interesting perspective on this matchup. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt had Cleveland QB Brian Hoyer as the starting QB for his last game as the Arizona Cardinals head coach in 2012, while Tennessee DC Ray Horton was in Arizona in 2012 and in Cleveland last season. The Browns and Titans used to be division rivals, but this will be only the fifth meeting since the 2002 realignment, and the Titans have won the last two meetings. Tennessee’s defense is reeling, giving up more points every game. But the question will be if inaccurate Tennessee QB Jake Locker and the unimpressive Tennessee WR corps 10 can make some plays against a surprisingly vulnerable Browns defense coming off a bye.
Arizona at Denver: The Cardinals beat the Broncos 43-13 in 2010, a game that saw K Jay Feely score a rushing TD and convert five field goals. It was Arizona’s first win ever against the Broncos, but the Cardinals are 0-4 in Denver, scoring a total of 32 points in those losses. Perhaps Arizona will be inspired by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they’ll more likely have a hard time defending Denver TE Julius Thomas. Arizona’s coaching staff is another one who has a beat on the opposing starting QB, as head coach Bruce Arians was Denver QB Peyton Manning’s position coach in Indianapolis from 1998-2000, while Arizona assistant head coach Tom Moore was Indianapolis’ OC from 1998-2010. This will be an opportunity for Denver’s defense to show some improvement, as they’ll face inaccurate Arizona QB Drew Stanton.
New York Jets at San Diego: The Jets haven’t lost four straight games since 2007 – head coach Rex Ryan has eight three-game losing streaks as New York’s head coach, but he’s always found a way to avoid the fourth straight loss. The only time Rex Ryan coached the Jets in San Diego was the last time the Chargers hosted a playoff game, a 17-14 Jets win in the 2009-2010 postseason. The last meeting between the two teams was in 2012, a 27-17 San Diego win. 11 New York’s front seven has played great, but the pass defense has allowed nine TDs without a single INT. If New York QB Geno Smith doesn’t take care of the football, QB Michael Vick may have to reluctantly relieve him.
Kansas City at San Francisco: Alex Smith returns to San Francisco! The Kansas City QB leads the only offense that has yet to throw a TD pass to a WR, but the Chiefs compensate by featuring RBs Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis and TEs Anthony Fasano and Gronkian talent Travis Kelce. As they showed against Philadelphia, the demise of the San Francisco defense has been a bit exaggerated and hasty, as the 49ers are allowing the second-fewest yards in the league, continuing to shut down run games. Expect the 49ers to test Kansas City’s run defense much more than New England did in Week 4, as the Chiefs are giving up five yards a rush and are traveling on a short week. This isn’t quite 1994’s matchup between Joe Montana and Steve Young, but it will be interesting to see if Smith can lead the Chiefs to their first win in San Francisco since the first ever meeting between the teams in 1971.
Cincinnati at New England: Big opportunity for the Bengals, coming off a bye week and off to an outstanding start defensively, allowing only 33 points in three games. To put that in perspective, nine teams allowed 33 points or more in Week 4, with the Patriots giving up 41 in Kansas City Monday night. The Bengals also shut the Patriots down last season in Ohio, winning 13-6 and snapping New England QB Tom Brady’s consecutive games with a TD streak at 52. This game actually features the two best pass defenses in the AFC, though New England has struggled defending receiving backs, and Cincinnati RB Giovani Bernard is second only to Darren Sproles in receiving yards a game by a back (49.3 yards per game). It will be interesting to see if New England tries to help Brady out offensively by playing WR Aaron Dobson, featuring TE Tim Wright, and settling on an offensive line.
Seattle at Washington: This is a rematch of the night that changed Washington’s franchise for the worse, Seattle’s 24-14 playoff win at FedExField in January 2013. Washington QB Robert Griffin III tore his ACL that night, and he’s out again with a dislocated ankle, which puts turnover-prone QB Kirk Cousins in as the starter. Seattle’s defense started their season off against QBs Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Peyton Manning, who have combined to throw 29 TDs and three INTs this season. Those three QBs are ranked 1st, 2nd, and 4th, respectively, in passer rating; Seattle QB Russell Wilson is ranked 3rd and coming off a bye. Important to note that while Washington head coach Jay Gruden was Cincinnati’s OC in 2011, the Bengals beat the Seahawks 34-12 in Seattle – but Cincinnati was held to 252 yards of offense in that game, with INTs by Seattle SS Kam Chancellor and CB Richard Sherman.