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Oct 04 2014

NFL 2014 Week 5 Gameplan

Week 5 = October. Quite possibly the best month in sports is underway, though February may have something to say about that (Super Bowl, NBA All-Star Weekend).

Let’s check in on the teams on bye:

Miami: The Dolphins were last 2-2 in 2010, and they also had their bye in Week 5 that season. Miami hasn’t had a winning season since 2008, and their win-loss record in December/January over the last five years is 11-14. Miami might want to get out ahead and control this division. Poor linebacker play hurt Miami pretty bad in losses to Buffalo and Kansas City, and they need to tackle better against teams with decent RBs. They also need to keep their runners involved and not get QB Ryan Tannehill beat up for no reason; Miami has 73 rushes in two wins, 41 in two losses.

Oakland: The Raiders signed veteran DEs Justin Tuck and LaMarr Woodley, DT Antonio Smith, and CBs Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown to help upgrade a bad defense. Oakland isn’t good defensively, and their pass defense is still embarrassing 1, but that’s not why they are 0-4. Despite adding veteran RB Maurice Jones-Drew, WR James Jones, OT Donald Penn, and G Austin Howard, none of them mattered because veteran QB Matt Schaub failed to win the starting job. Rookie QB Derek Carr (only 5.5 yards per attempt) wasn’t supposed to be the savior for this team, he’s getting the worst run support in the league, 2 and now he’s injured. Tony Sparano, fired as Miami head coach during the 2011 season, is now the interim head coach. But Oakland GM Reggie McKenzie hasn’t upgraded the roster nearly well enough. Despite all of the poor seasons since moving from Los Angeles in 1995, this is only Oakland’s second time in the last 20 seasons that they started 0-4. The other time was 2006, another year where Oakland had the worst offense in the NFL 3, and the team finished 2-14. 4

Minnesota at Green Bay: Here’s what I said at the end of Thursday’s “Observations” article previewing this game:

The Vikings and Packers tied last season in Green Bay, a game where the Vikings blew a 23-7 fourth quarter lead and both teams traded field goals and three-and-outs in overtime. The Vikings will miss Adrian Peterson here, as he averaged 117.7 rushing yards in 14 career games against the Packers, most out of any NFC foe. Minnesota also has to decide between injured rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater (ankle) on the road and on a short week, or deposed 2011 first-round QB Christian Ponder. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers knows what he’s doing, and he’s usually made mincemeat of the Vikings secondary (26 TDs, four INTs, 117.9 passer rating in 12 career games vs. Vikings). Expect the Vikings to get Asiata and McKinnon as many touches as possible, but if Rodgers puts up the digits early, it might get ugly. We’re all about to see what first-year Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer can do with this pass defense; when Zimmer was Cincinnati’s DC last season, the Bengals sacked Rodgers four times and intercepted him twice in a 34-30 Bengals win in Ohio.

All you need to know is that Ponder started, Rodgers had three first-half TD passes, one of Ponder’s two first-half INTs was returned for a TD by OLB Julius Peppers, and the Packers took a 42-0 lead into the fourth quarter. Another Thursday Night Blowout.

Chicago at Carolina: The Panthers organization has been under fire all season, whether it was DE Greg Hardy’s offseason issues or the ugly fallout of Baltimore WR Steve Smith lighting up Carolina GM Dave Gettleman for how his release was handled. In more pressing issues, QB Cam Newton has the look of a player who won’t last the season, while the defense allowed 75 points over the last two weeks, the worst two-game stretch since November 2008. All of the well-paid backs (RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, FB Mike Tolbert) are injured. Newton will have a full complement of receivers, along with former Chicago TE Greg Olsen. Chicago will be starting undersized undrafted rookie Michael Ola on QB Jay Cutler’s blind side; Carolina needs to force turnovers.

Houston at Dallas: The battle of Texas! The Texans won their first game in franchise history against the Cowboys, but the Cowboys have won the other two meetings, including a 27-13 2010 victory in Houston where Dallas QB Tony Romo found WR Roy Williams for two scores. A Houston-based team hasn’t won in Dallas since 1988, when the Oilers beat the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Both teams want to run the ball, but right now, Dallas RB DeMarco Murray is killing it. Houston RB Arian Foster struggled mightily in Week 4, gaining only six yards on eight carries as he deals with a hamstring injury.

Buffalo at Detroit: The return of Jim Schwartz! The Buffalo DC makes his first appearance in Detroit, where he was the head coach from 2009 until 2013. Buffalo’s front seven has played well, especially against the run. 5 Detroit WR Calvin Johnson is also less than 100 percent, so QB Matthew Stafford will need to find WR Golden Tate and rookie TE Eric Ebron more often. Buffalo is bringing QB Kyle Orton into a tough situation, as Detroit DC Teryl Austin has the Lions off to an impressive start defensively. 6

Baltimore at Indianapolis: 

Show 11 footnotes

  1. Allowing 103.8 passer rating, 7th worst
  2. RB Darren McFadden is averaging 3.4 yards per carry, Jones-Drew has 12 yards on 11 carries
  3. Despite playing four games, Oakland is dead last in total points and yards in the NFL
  4. Leading to the hiring of Lane Kiffin and the drafting of QB JaMarcus Russell.
  5. no TDs allowed against 99 rushes, 2.9 yards per rush allowed
  6. Detroit allowing a 77.4 passer rating, 5th-best through four games.
  7. Only Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, and Courtney Upshaw remain as starters from that playoff game.
  8. Jaguars: NFL-worst 11 TD passes allowed.
  9. Hey, better than Amukamara getting thrown in the cold tub!
  10. Only one TD reception from a WR
  11. San Diego QB Philip Rivers threw two TD passes, while New York QB Greg McElroy was sacked 11 times in what would be his only career start.

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