NFL 2014 Week 6 Gameplan

I went quite deep into this week’s observations by explaining how “overrated” is one of the worst terms in sports, so I’ll be keeping this version of the Gameplan as short as possible. But every team has played at least four games now, and every team has shown at least one thing so far this season: they are all capable of losing. Of course, Bart Scott told you this already…

Also, Katy Perry is doing the Super Bowl Halftime Show. I’m sure Bengals fans enjoyed that news.

Let’s look at the teams on bye before getting into Week 6:

Kansas City: The Chiefs are 2-3 for the first time since 2011. That season was declared “over” for the Chiefs when they started 0-3, giving up 109 points in their first three games and falling under an avalanche of injury (RB Jamaal Charles and SS Eric Berry tore ACLs). The 2011 Chiefs won their next four games, but QB Matt Cassel suffered a season-ending hand injury, which indirectly led to the firing of head coach Todd Haley and the signing of QB Kyle Orton. The Chiefs didn’t lose their third game of the season until Week 13 last season, but they didn’t win their second game of the 2012 season until Week 13 as well. This season’s Chiefs have two main issues: the failure to improve the receiving corps, and head coach Andy Reid’s chronic negligence of Charles. Kansas City is the only NFL team not to have a receiving TD by a wide receiver, while Charles failed to get 20 touches in losses to Tennessee and San Francisco. Kansas City was 9-1 last year when Charles got at least 20 touches, so you would think that he’d get the rock if he’s healthy.

New Orleans: The Saints are also 2-3. The last time they were 2-3 was 2008, the year before they won the Super Bowl. Despite having the best offense in the league, the 2008 Saints missed the postseason due to a defense that failed to rush the passer. The 2014 Saints have a similar problem: after finishing fourth in 2013 with 49 sacks, New Orleans has only six sacks in five games this season, ranking only 25th. Passers have thrown 175 passes against New Orleans so far this season, with only one INT. ¹ New Orleans signed Pro Bowl FS Jairus Byrd this offseason, but he’s on injured reserve after failing to intercept a pass, while second-year SS Kenny Vaccaro has struggled in his return from last season’s ankle injury. New Orleans needs someone besides OLB Junior Galette to start rushing the passer, or they’ll miss the playoffs.

2014 #NFL Week 6 picks (12-3 in Week 5, +18 in 2014): HOU, ATL, NE, CIN, CLE, MIA, MIN, DEN, BAL, TEN, OAK, ARI, SEA, PHI, STL

— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 9, 2014

Indianapolis at Houston: Here’s what I said about this game going into Thursday Night:

First-year coaching staffs have been destroyed on Thursday Night Beatdowns the last three weeks: Lovie Smith and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers gave up 56 points in Week 3, Jay Gruden and the Washington Redskins gave up 45 points in Week 4, and Mike Zimmer and the Minnesota Vikings gave up 42 points in Week 5. With first place on the line in the AFC South, new Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien better hope that RB Arian Foster’s attitude towards Thursday night games lends itself to a great performance on his part. Houston isn’t going to want this to be a game where QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is relied on heavily, which means that the Texans will need to have success on the ground. Indianapolis is down some blockers, and while it’s one thing to expect DE J.J. Watt to have a big impact on the game, the Houston front seven has to make sure they don’t get moved by RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson. Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck is going to get hot at some point in the game, but Houston can beat them. If they show up.

Houston wasn’t ready for this game, falling behind 24-0 at the end of the first quarter: Houston’s offense went three-and-out three times, Houston’s defense was torched for 147 receiving yards by Indianapolis WR T.Y. Hilton, and Houston’s annually poor special teams allowed Indianapolis beast P Pat McAfee to recover his own onside kick. The blowout was on! But Foster showed up in a big way, rushing for 109 yards and two TDs despite the early deficit and short week. And DE J.J. Watt continued to dominate, swatting multiple passes, collecting two sacks, and returning a botched snap for a 45-yard scoop-and-score. But Houston’s fourth quarter possessions failed the comeback effort: missed 37-yard FG, Andre Johnson fumble, Ryan Fitzpatrick fumble.

Chicago at Atlanta: The Devin Hester Bowl! Hester already had a big day against one of his former head coaches in Chicago, scoring offensive and special teams TDs vs. Tampa Bay in Week 3. Hester is dealing with a hamstring, but fellow WR Harry Douglas is out, so Hester will have a role to fill offensively. Atlanta was embarrassed in 2011 by RB Matt Forté in Chicago as he racked up 158 total yards, and neither defense has been impressive so far this season. The Falcons have clicked at home, so expect QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones to take advantage of Chicago’s underwhelming safety corps.

New England at Buffalo: The Brandon Spikes Bowl! The Buffalo ILB said his new team would sweep his old team this season, and Buffalo is going to cause major problems up front for the Patriots. Expect the Ralph to be loud, and expect the New England offensive line to look more like it did in Kansas City than it did last week against Cincinnati. The Bills have 17 sacks this season, and they are bringing the running back down this year as well with the AFC’s best run defense. ² New England TE Rob Gronkowski usually roughs Buffalo up, and Buffalo seems like they won’t get their most dangerous back (C.J. Spiller) the ball enough against New England’s vulnerable LBs.

Carolina at Cincinnati: This feels like an under-the-radar game, despite it being one of only five contests between two teams with winning records this week. Carolina QB Cam Newton was the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, while Cincinnati got WR A.J. Green fourth overall before going with QB Andy Dalton in round two. The QBs will be there, but Dalton won’t have Green, WR Marvin Jones, or TE Tyler Eifert. That means more of the run game for the Bengals with RBs Giovani Bernard and rookie Jeremy Hill against Carolina’s league-worst run defense. ³ Cincinnati has won their last ten regular season home games and could make things difficult on Carolina’s passing game, while the poor run defense ⁴ gets the return of OLB Vontaze Burfict.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Maybe the Browns play a game that doesn’t come down to the last possession? Probably shouldn’t bet on that, as we have our first division rematch of the season here in Cleveland. The Browns didn’t get going until late in Week 1 at Pittsburgh, but they showed they could run the ball and put up points. Cleveland’s defense has not been impressive this season, and QB Ben Roethlisberger will probably have WR Antonio Brown open for scores all day. Cleveland TE Jordan Cameron hasn’t scored and has only 103 receiving yards this season; he’s due to break out.

Green Bay at Miami: Miami head coach Joe Philbin was on Green Bay’s staff when the Dolphins came to Lambeau Field and beat the Packers in OT 23-20 in 2010. The Packers are coming off a ten-day layoff, while Miami is coming off their bye week. The key for the Dolphins will be rushing the passer, one of the few things Miami has done consistently well in the 21st century. The other key will be whether or not Miami’s much-maligned coaching staff will attack Green Bay’s weak run defense consistently. The Packers defend the pass well, while Miami RB Knowshon Moreno is expected to return to help out RB Lamar Miller.

Detroit at Minnesota: The Lions finally went out and got a competent K, signing former Denver Pro Bowler Matt Prater. 7th-round rookie K Nate Freese and former Philadelphia K Alex Henery missed eight of nine field goal attempts over 40 yards, setting placekicking back about about half a century by themselves. Detroit needs the extra boost offensively, because WR Calvin Johnson and RB Reggie Bush are not expecting to be available. This should be a close Black and Blue division style of contest; Minnesota had ten days off after getting mollywhopped in Green Bay, and they’ll start rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford has struggled without Megatron, so this will be a significant test for him on the road against Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer’s rested defense.

Denver at New York Jets: The last time Denver QB Peyton Manning played against the Jets, he was losing his last game in a Colts uniform, a 17-16 Wild Card defeat in the 2010 postseason. And the last time the Jets saw the Broncos, Tebowmania was running wild:  So instead of QB Tim Tebow, the Jets have QBs Geno Smith and Michael Vick. Smith doesn’t take care of the football, while Vick simply doesn’t care. Former Denver WR Eric Decker is battling a hamstring and is going to get a closeup of what he left behind in Denver – with the way New York’s secondary has been defending the pass, this may get ugly.

Baltimore at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay’s defense intercepted three passes last week and had five sacks the week before, but they continue to have tackling and assignment issues. Baltimore will be without LT Eugene Monroe again, while LG Kelechi Osemele missed practice all week. On the road, offensive line concerns usually present sustainability problems, but look for Baltimore QB Joe Flacco to target WRs Steve Smith and Torrey Smith down the field early. Defensively, Baltimore matches up extremely well with Tampa Bay’s offense, as CB Jimmy Smith has enough size to defend Tampa Bay WR Vincent Jackson. The last time Baltimore faced a team coached by Lovie Smith was in 2009, when the Ravens beat the Chicago Bears 31-7 behind four TD passes from Flacco.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: Last season, Jacksonville started 0-8 before going to Tennessee to get their first win of the season. Once again, Jacksonville shows up at Tennessee winless, allowing the most yards and points in the league. No lead is too big for Tennessee to blow, as the Titans showed last week versus the Browns, and now QB Jake Locker is out injured yet again. Tennessee also placed long-time LT Michael Roos on injured reserve; at least they have 2014 first-round OT Taylor Lewan ready to play. I expect Tennessee QB Charlie Whitehurst to protect the football better against Jacksonville’s league-worst pass defense than Jacksonville rookie QB Blake Bortles. ⁵

San Diego at Oakland: I had San Diego winning five games this season. I had the Chargers losing last week to the Jets. I have the Chargers losing again in Oakland, like they did for a game that ended at about 2 in the morning on the East Coast last year. Clearly, I missed on San Diego again, but I’m not going to count Oakland out just because of that. The Raiders are coming off a bye week, new interim head coach Tony Sparano has already challenged rookie QB Derek Carr to make moves, and perhaps Oakland can reduplicate their their five-takeaway performance from last season with San Diego down to their fourth starting center of the season.

Washington at Arizona: The last time Arizona beat Washington was in 2000, when the two teams were division rivals (which made no damn sense). Washington is bringing an eight-game winning streak against Arizona to University of Phoenix Stadium, a place Washington has never been. ⁶ Arizona head coach Bruce Arians doesn’t know who is starting at QB yet: Carson Palmer’s shoulder nerve is just now waking up, Drew Stanton just got cleared from a concussion, and rookie Logan Thomas missed seven of his eight passes in relief of Stanton in Denver. Whoever starts should be able to take advantage of Washington’s sorry secondary. It is worth watching to see how Arizona’s run defense ⁷ holds up against Washington RB Alfred Morris without injured DE Calais Campbell.

Dallas at Seattle: Dallas QB Tony Romo is yet another who has not performed well in the Pacific Northwest. His first career playoff game wound up being Bill Parcells’ last game as head coach:  And when Romo went back to Seattle in 2012, Seattle held the Cowboys to 296 yards in a 27-7 win. The Cowboys are catching the Seahawks on a short week, but the last time they won in Seattle was 2004 on Monday Night Football, when rookie RB Julius Jones ran for a career-high 198 yards and three TDs in a 43-39 comeback victory. Dallas RB DeMarco Murray has destroyed every team he’s faced this season, but he’s going up against the top run defense in the NFL, while Seattle’s top-ranked run game should be a total mismatch for the Dallas front seven.

New York Giants at Philadelphia: Michael Vick started both games against New York last year, but he failed to finish either. QB Nick Foles finished a 36-21 win in New Jersey, while QB Matt Barkley faceplanted at home in a 15-7 loss that featured zero offensive TDs. Philadelphia has been living on defense/special teams scores while the offense struggles for consistency and the pass defense gets lit up. Perhaps the defense/special teams assistance continues against a New York team that has been known for special teams mistakes and snowballing turnovers, though New York QB Eli Manning has done a great job of taking care of the football during his team’s three-game winning streak. New York will also start rookie RB Andre Williams, a bruising runner who struggles in the passing game.

San Francisco at Saint Louis: The Rams are a confounding team. While QB Austin Davis has shown the ability to put up points and yards, the Rams have shown a remarkably poor ability to rush the passer. ⁸ San Francisco is starting RT Jonathan Martin again in place of the injured Anthony Davis, and that should re-ignite what should be a charged up defense at home. Saint Louis still blows coverage and gap discipline, the latter being the bigger concern against the San Francisco run game. The Rams need to force San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick to beat them, not give up another 100 yards to RB Frank Gore.

25 years after the Herschel Walker trade, RB DeMarco Murray and the Dallas Cowboys have an opportunity to win their fifth straight game. But they’ll have to do it in Seattle against DT Brandon Mebane and the top-ranked Seahawks run defense. (PC: tiqiq)