Happy Thanksgiving! I’ll be working for a second straight year on the holiday – so I’m thankful for that opportunity.
I’m also thankful that I had my strongest week of the season in Week 11, going 11-3. Strong. So what happened in the three that I whiffed on?
– I had the Dolphins welcoming Dallas QB Tony Romo with a loss, but they failed to score or convert on 3rd down in the 4th quarter, as the Cowboys held Miami to -7 yards passing in the 4th.
– The Eagles lost to the Dolphins last week, and they dropped another one to a Florida team at Lincoln Financial Field. This time, they allowed 283 rushing yards to the Buccaneers, the most rushing yards allowed by Philadelphia in 42 years.
– Cardinals QB Carson Palmer threw 2 1st quarter INTs vs his old Bengals team – but then he came back to throw 4 TD passes and lead a game-winning drive.
Finally – no more bye weeks! But I have a couple of observations before getting into the Week 12 picks. One, the 3 prospective Los Angeles teams (Rams, Chargers, Raiders) are a combined 2-9 this month, with neither winning a game since November 1. But the season isn’t over for them – or anyone. Which brings me to my next point:
All 32 NFL teams are within 3 games of a playoff spot – either a division lead or a Wild Card. The only other time that every team was within 3 games of a playoff spot after Week 11 since 1990 1 was the 1995 season – when there were only 30 NFL teams. Every game matters!
2015 #NFLThanksgiving picks (11-3 in Week 11, +14 for 2015): PHI, DAL, GB, MIN, CIN, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, NYJ, TEN, WAS, SF, SEA, DEN, BAL
— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) November 26, 2015
Philadelphia at Detroit: The Eagles haven’t lost in Detroit since 1977, and they haven’t lost on the national holiday of Thanksgiving – expect Philadelphia to bounce back on the road against the worst rushing team in the NFL.
Carolina at Dallas: The Cowboys will pull off the upset against the Panthers, who have lost 4 out of 5 Thursday games and will struggle to protect QB Cam Newton on the road.
Chicago at Green Bay: This is a rematch of Week 1, and this will be the first time all season that Bears QB Jay Cutler will throw multiple INTs in a game.
Minnesota at Atlanta: In this rematch of the 1998 NFC Championship, look for one of the cleanest teams in the NFL (Minnesota) to take advantage of what has become one the most mistake-prone over the past month (ATL).
Saint Louis at Cincinnati: The Rams have a lot on their minds with the constant criticism of head coach Jeff Fisher and now the shooting that wounded suspended WR Stedman Bailey; the Cincinnati pass defense is going to make things tough for Saint Louis’ 3rd-worst 3rd down offense since 1972.
New Orleans at Houston: Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins burned the Jets and CB Darrelle Revis last week, and now he gets to face new New Orleans defensive coordinator Dennis Allen and his team’s league-worst coverages.
Tampa Bay at Indianapolis: Remember all the talk about how Indianapolis would be a 4-win team without QB Andrew Luck … they’ll be right after QB Matt Hasselbeck helps the Colts win the turnover margin again in his 4th start of the season.
San Diego at Jacksonville: The Chargers are in a freefall and are losing skill players every week; the Jaguars should be able to push the Chargers around up front at home coming off a long layoff due to a Week 10 TNF game.
Buffalo at Kansas City: This is arguably the most important game in the AFC as far as the Wild Card race is concerned; the Chiefs get the Bills at home as they’re traveling on a short week, and Kansas City has scored 9 rushing TDs with zero turnovers during their current 4-game W streak.
Miami at New York Jets: The Jets blew out Miami to force a coaching change after London; they’ll be able to shut down Miami’s run game and continue to frustrate Miami QB Ryan Tannehill. 2
Oakland at Tennessee: Raiders QB Derek Carr has seen seen his passer rating decline 4 weeks in a row, and now he’s back on the road to face a Tennessee pass defense that 300+ yards only once all season.
New York Giants at Washington: New York allows more than 300 passing yards per game, which would set a new record for pass defense futility – Washington QB Kirk Cousins has been much better at home than on the road this season. 3
Arizona at San Francisco: I expect San Francisco’s defense to be way more competitive at home than they were at Seattle last week and at Arizona in Week 3; 49ers QB Blaine Gabbert has hit his TEs for more TDs this season in 2 games (3) than Colin Kaepernick did in 8 starts (1).
Pittsburgh at Seattle: Finally, the 12th Man gets to welcome the Steelers to Seattle for the first time after Super Bowl XL; it’s going to be a long day for Pittsburgh’s offensive line.
New England at Denver: The Broncos defense will make life miserable for a New England offense that has to shuffle RBs, WRs, and OL … and Denver now has a QB in Brock Osweiler who won’t throw the game away and hold the running game back.
Baltimore at Cleveland: Every Ravens game has come down to 8 points or fewer – including an overtime loss to Cleveland this season; even with losses at nearly every position, expect Baltimore to keep the Browns one-dimensional and pull out a close one.
It’s your team now, Brock O! Broncos QB Osweiler finally replaces Peyton Manning, which gives Denver a better chance of knocking off New England (PC: Daily Mail).
-1SKILLZ