NFL 2015 Week 14 Gameplan

Teams with a habit of bad 4th quarters (RE: New Jersey Giants) have had to resort to reminding themselves when the 3rd quarter ends that it’s winning time.

It’s now the 4th quarter … of the NFL season. Point to the standings!

If the playoffs started following #TNF. (NFL.COM)

Only the Panthers and Cardinals have clinched playoff berths, while only the Cleveland Browns are mathematically eliminated. There’s an entire sorry division under .500, and unlike the NFC South, it has your undivided attention: the NFC East. And let’s not pretend like these teams can’t win in the playoffs … after all, the 7-8-1 Panthers beat the Cardinals in the playoffs last year, while the 7-9 Seahawks defeated the defending Super Bowl champion Saints just 5 years ago.

I’m obligated to explain my Week 13 misses, so I’ll attend to that now. I went 8-8 – which isn’t good, but it would be good enough to win the NFC East ?

– That Hail Mary in Detroit … let’s just move on …

– SF QB Blaine Gabbert has been good. His 44-yard TD run to tie the game in Chicago, followed by his 71-yard deep shot to WR Torrey Smith to win in overtime, showed why Gabbert was a 1st round pick in 2011.

– Baltimore Ravens QB Matt Schaub threw yet another pick-six, and the Ravens lost to the Dolphins by 2 – yet another close loss in a season full of them for the Ravens.

– Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has thrown 11 TD passes without an INT the last 3 games after winning in Minnesota – the best 3-game stretch by any passer in the league this season.

– I’m pretty sure the Jets’ overtime win over the Giants was the first in NFL history where the overtime ended in a loss after a missed FG – Giants K Josh Brown’s first miss of the season.

– I’ve been burned by the Cardinals all year, and they hung more than 500 yards on the Rams in Saint Louis.

– Look at Panthers QB Cam Newton, throwing the ball like the MVP that he is: He’s thrown 16 TD passes and only 3 INTs over his last 6 games, and his 4th quarter comeback in New Orleans was his 3rd of the season.

– Washington is known for terrible special teams play, ¹ and they completed the trifecta on Monday Night Football against the Cowboys in the 4th quarter: K Dustin Hopkins missed a 43-yard FG, WR DeSean Jackson lost a fumble on a foolhardy punt return, then the Washington kickoff coverage allowed a 46-yard kickoff return by Dallas KR Lucky Whitehead to help set up Dallas K Dan Bailey’s 54-yard game-winning FG.

This is another post TNF Week 14 preview, so I’m behind the 8-ball again. Thursdays have not been kind recently:

2015 #NFL Week 14 picks (8-8 in Week 13, +18 for 2015): MIN, CAR, CHI, PIT, CLE, SEA, IND, KC, NYJ, PHI, DET, NO, DEN, GB, HOU, MIA #TheNU

— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) December 10, 2015

Minnesota at Arizona:

#TNF: I have #Vikings tonight. Haven’t lost consecutive games all season. Key number = 17. Peterson gets that many rushes, MIN 8-0, ARI 0-2.

— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) December 11, 2015

A. Peterson, 1st half: 12 carries, 56 yards, TD A. Peterson, 2nd half: 11 carries, 13 yards, lost fumble #MINvsARI #TNF

— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) December 11, 2015

Seattle at Baltimore: The Seahawks are either going to see pick-six manufacturer Schaub or QB Jimmy Clausen as the starter – Clausen managed 63 passing yards at Seattle in a dreadful Week 3 start.

Atlanta at Carolina: The last time the Panthers saw the Falcons, they ended Mike Smith’s tenure and won the NFC South – don’t expect Atlanta’s untimely turnovers to end in Carolina.

Washington at Chicago: Washington hasn’t won on the road all season, while the Bears pass rush should be able to get home.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Bengals secondary has been great this season, but they’re facing the hottest offense in the league with several key DBs hurting (CB Adam Jones, CB Leon Hall, CB  Dre Kirkpatrick, SS George Iloka all missed practice time this week).

San Francisco at Cleveland: The Browns pass offense hasn’t been the problem, even with new starting QB Johnny Manziel, while the 49ers are on the road for the 2nd straight week.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The Jaguars are playing for their season, but I trust the Colts to take better care of the football than the Jaguars in this key AFC South matchup.

San Diego at Kansas City: The Chiefs are now racking up turnovers that they only got against the Chargers last season.

Tennessee at New York Jets: Jets CB Darrelle Revis should be back, and he changes what New York can do in pass defense.

Buffalo at Philadelphia: The Eagles have two jobs: stop returning RB LeSean McCoy and put enough points up early to force QB Tyrod Taylor out of his Russell Wilson-like comfort zone.

Detroit at Saint Louis: The Rams are sorry every year, but the optimism may finally stop with so many defenders on IR, a new offensive coordinator, and one of the worst 3rd down offenses in recent history.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: The Saints placed RB Mark Ingram on IR and have the worst pass defense in NFL history, so they’re going to need QB Drew Brees to get going early against the team that injured him in September.

Oakland at Denver: Oakland QB Derek Carr has thrown 6 INTs during a stretch that has seen the Raiders lose 4 of their last 5 games; it’s going to be tough for him to take care of the ball against the best defense in the NFL.

Dallas at Green Bay: The Cowboys CBs haven’t had an INT all season, and now they go to Green Bay on a short week – and with a rejuvenated (and lucky) Packers team coming off a long rest from TNF.

New England at Houston: I’d be concerned for Patriots QB Tom Brady’s health – he’s taken more hits over the last three games than at any point of his career, and this is a matchup featuring DE J.J. Watt, former New England NT Vince Wilfork, and former Patriots coaches in Houston head coach Bill O’Brien, DC Romeo Crennel, and QB Brian Hoyer.

New York Giants at Miami: The last 7 MNF games have been decided by single digits – either the Giants blow out the Dolphins early, or interim head coach Dan Campbell will have a shot to knock off the team that drafted him late.

The only game Sunday featuring two teams with winning records takes place at Paul Brown Stadium, as the Bengals try and sweep the Steelers for the first time since 2009. (PC: Cincy Jungle)