NFL 2015 Week 16 Gameplan

Week 16 is here, along with winter – although, the winter weather doesn’t look like it’s happening, does it?

This is the last week of the regular season featuring games outside of the division, including two interconference games that come in low on the importance totem pole: Jacksonville at New Orleans, Dallas at Buffalo.

This week also marks the last Thursday and Monday night games of the season, while there is another Saturday night game (the Wild Card and Divisional rounds of the postseason will feature two Saturday games each).

Before we go into Week 16, let’s take a look back at my 8-8 finish in Week 15:

– The Cowboys own pass game was the problem against the Jets, as QBs Matt Cassel (benched) and Kellen Moore (NFL debut) combined for only 195 pass yards, 1 TD, and 4 INTs.

– The Texans lost starting QB T.J. Yates to a torn ACL in Indianapolis, but Houston’s defense supported backup Brandon Weeden by shutting the Colts out in the 2nd half and holding them to 50 rushing yards for the game.

– The Falcons have had a poor pass rush all season, but Atlanta DE Adrian Clayborn got a key sack to thwart a comeback attempt from the Jacksonville offense with less than a minute remaining to play.

– Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr. embarrassed himself vs. Carolina, but he did score a game-tying 4th quarter TD – that only set up Panthers QB Cam Newton for a game-winning drive to cap the first game in which a player had at least 300 passing yards (340), 100 rushing yards, and 5 TD passes.

– The Broncos lost their matchup with the Pittsburgh receivers, particularly Steelers WR Antonio Brown (16 receptions, 189 receiving yards, 2 TD).

– This year, the Dolphins were nice enough to San Diego to not even show up – Chargers RB Danny Woodhead scored 4 TDs, including 3 receiving TD.

– The Bengals had four sacks and 3 INTs for the first time since Week 16, 2013, and they won in San Francisco for the first time since 1974.

– The Eagles got trucked by rookie RB David Johnson for 187 rushing yards and 3 rush TD – the most rushing yards by a rookie against the Eagles since HOF RB Tony Dorsett hit the Eagles for 206 rushing yards in 1977.

Let’s get going with the Week 16 picks … after all, divisions are on the line:

2015 #NFL Week 16 picks (8-8 in Week 15, +20 for 2015): SD, WAS, CAR, BAL, BUF, DET, KC, MIA, NE, CHI, HOU, NO, GB, STL, MIN, DEN #TheNU

— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) December 24, 2015

San Diego at Oakland:
The Chargers didn’t come out ready to play against the Raiders in San Diego earlier this season, and this is S Charles Woodson’s final home game, but the Chargers have been a top-10 defense over the last 4 weeks and will be better against the pass in this meeting.

Washington at Philadelphia:
I had the Eagles winning the NFC East, but they’ve blown too many winnable games; Washington isn’t a good team, but they have a good passer in QB Kirk Cousins who is thriving with TE Jordan Reed and former Philadelphia talent WR DeSean Jackson.

Carolina at Atlanta:
The Panthers beat the Falcons by a combined score of 72-3 in the last two meetings, with Carolina QB Cam Newton combining for a 137.1 passer rating (4 TD, 0 INT) in those games.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore:
The Steelers have only one loss to a team with a losing record this season, and it came in Week 4 against the Ravens; Baltimore will need a big game from WR Kamar Aiken (20 catches for 1st downs last 5 weeks, T-8th in NFL) against the weak Steelers pass defense to pull off an unlikely season sweep of Pittsburgh.

Dallas at Buffalo:
The Bills are going to miss the playoffs for the 16th straight season, and they have to relive losing back-to-back Super Bowls to the Cowboys, but Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor should be able to take advantage of a Dallas defense that has struggled all season with takeaways.

San Francisco at Detroit:
Lions QB Matthew Stafford is coming off the most efficient game of his career in New Orleans, and now he gets the worst road defense in the NFL when the 49ers come to Ford Field.

Cleveland at Kansas City:
During Kansas City’s 8-game win streak, no team has more sacks (28) and INTs (16) than the Chiefs – good luck, Johnny Manziel.

Indianapolis at Miami:
I had the Colts winning the AFC, but like the Eagles, they blew it – the Dolphins aren’t a bright team, but DT Ndamukong Suh and FS Reshad Jones should have the opportunity to take advantage of Indianapolis’ struggling offense.

New England at New York Jets:
When these teams met in October, Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski was targeted relentlessly – expect that to continue, and if Gronkowski can score, expect New England to win.

Chicago at Tampa Bay:
Bears OLB Willie Young leads the Bears with 6.5 sacks this season, with 5.5 coming in the last 5 weeks (3rd in NFL in that timespan); Young will be trying to get through rookie LT Donovan Smith to get to rookie QB Jameis Winston.

Houston at Tennessee:
The Texans have a chance to make the postseason if the Colts lose and OLB Whitney Mercilus and DE J.J. Watt can terrorize Tennessee’s offensive line like they did last month when they combined for 6 of Houston’s 7 sacks on QB Zach Mettenberger.

Jacksonville at New Orleans:
New Orleans QB Drew Brees is trying to play with a torn plantar fascia, while New Orleans head coach Sean Payton is trying to convince the Saints that he wants to stay – Jacksonville has plenty to play for, but their inability to go on the road and keep offenses off the field and out of the end zone should prevent them from getting their first ever win in New Orleans.

Green Bay at Arizona:
This is the Game of the Week, a potential Divisional playoff game, and Arizona’s first hint of reality without playmaking DB Tyrann Mathieu; expect Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers to control the game and keep the Packers out of losing situations by protecting the football.

Saint Louis at Seattle:
The Rams have sacked Seattle QB Russell Wilson 31 times since he entered the league in 2012 – no other player has been sacked that many times by a single team over the last four seasons, and it may lead to Saint Louis’ first sweep of the Seahawks since 2004.

New York Giants at Minnesota:
The Vikings have seen RB Adrian Peterson struggle through the last 3 second halves of games (20 carries, 28 rush yards last 3 second halves), but the Giants will not have suspended WR Odell Beckham Jr. available, while Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater has been much better in the month of December for the 2nd straight year (coming off of career-high 4 TD pass game vs Bears in Week 15, career-high 335 pass yards in Week 14).

Cincinnati at Denver:
The Broncos need another win to lock up a playoff berth, while the Bengals haven’t won in Denver since 1975 – if you think the top defense in the NFL is going to lose a 3rd straight game, especially against a not ready for primetime team starting AJ McCarron at QB with a poor run game and an injured TE in Tyler Eifert, then you must be thinking the Bengals have a Week 16, 2014 MNF repeat in them.

The last time Packers QB Aaron Rodgers played in Arizona, his turnover led to an OT Cardinals win in the 2009 Wild Card. (PC: Matt York)