NFL 2015 Week 7 Gameplan

Let’s make something clear about the NFL in October – it is the least consequential month of the season.

September is a tone-setter; the arrival of regular season football. November starts the second half of the season. December sets the postseason up.

October? Teams go on byes, pretend to make trades, and dress up in pink. It’s the valley of the season. It’s when Matt Cassel is supposed to make a difference at quarterback. Need I say more?

That said, I’m stacking chips. Week 6 was another plus week, with the Gameplan going 9-5. Let’s look back at the five:

– Bills RB LeSean McCoy had his best game of the season (90 rushing yards, TD), but the Bengals allowed no sacks and had no turnovers at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

– The Vikings got a strong game from rookie DE Danielle Hunter, who had 3 tackles, 0.5 sacks, and forced a fumble with the Chiefs in Minnesota territory, down 6 with less than 5 minutes left.

– I said that the Titans should expect more than 20 rushing attempts from the Dolphins; Miami ran the ball a season-high 32 times for 180 yards and 2 TD, with RB Lamar Miller gaining 113 of those yards and scoring his first TD of the season.

– For the second week in a row, the Seahawks were burned by a TE, as Carolina TE Greg Olsen racked up 7 receptions for 131 yards and the go-ahead 4th quarter TD that allowed the Panthers to finally win at CenturyLink Field.

– The 49ers allowed 3 sacks, but they played a relatively clean game (no turnovers) against a struggling Ravens defense.

It’s October, so four more teams are on bye this week:

Cincinnati: The last time the Bengals were 6-0, they won the AFC Championship following a 12-4 season. QB Andy Dalton, who I was frustrated by last season, is killing it with 14 TD, 2 INTs, and an average of 293.5 pass yards a game. WR A.J. Green (531 receiving yards, 3 TD) is a bona fide meal ticket, but the Bengals are better because WR Marvin Jones (321 receiving yards, 3 TD) and TE Tyler Eifert (342 receiving yards, 6 TD) are healthy and balling out. Jones missed all of last season, while Eifert suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1 last season.

Denver: The Broncos were 6-0 in 2013, back when QB Peyton Manning was good and the Denver defense was not. Now, the roles are reversed. Manning (league-leading 10 INTs) is a liability, albeit a highly defensed one, but the defense is among the best in the league, with arguably the best secondary. The Broncos have allowed a league-low 5 TD passes, while CBs Aqib Talib and Chris Harris already have 3 INT TDs.

Chicago: Even though the Bears have missed the playoffs 7 out of the last 8 seasons, their 2-4 start is their worst since 2007 (also started 2-4, finished 7-9). No team has allowed more points since 2013 than the Bears, and the carnage is continuing this season as they allow a league-high 29.8 points per game. The biggest issue is in the secondary, where the Bears have already allowed 15 TDs, while none of the DBs have intercepted a pass.

Green Bay: The last time the Packers were 6-0 was in 2011, when MVP QB Aaron Rodgers got the Packers off to a 13-0 start before going one and done in the postseason. Despite the loss of top WR Jordy Nelson to a torn ACL in the preseason, Rodgers is rolling along with another great season. But more important than Rodgers’ success is the play of the Green Bay defense, as only the Jets and Vikings have allowed fewer points per game. Passers have thrown 7 TD and 8 INTs already this season. Since the Packers hired defensive coordinator Dom Capers in 2009, no team has intercepted more passes than Green Bay (140).

Well, as you can see, 3 undefeated teams are off. Because October. As for the rest of Week 7:

2015 #NFL Week 7 picks (9-5 in Week 6, +11 for 2015): SEA, JAX, DET, IND, KC, HOU, NE, STL, TEN, TB, SD, DAL, PHI, BAL

— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 21, 2015

Seattle at San Francisco: The Seahawks embarrassed the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium again; I’m sure it’s Jim Harbaugh’s fault, though.

York/Tomsula is to Jim Harbaugh what Jay Gruden/Cousins is to RG3 https://t.co/7Nhzekah44 — Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 23, 2015

Fewest yards in #49ers franchise history in a game where they didn’t have a turnover (142) #SEAvsSF #TNF

— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 23, 2015

Buffalo vs Jacksonville: Two embattled head coaches meet in London, as Jaguars HC Gus Bradley brings his terrible record up against Bills HC Rex Ryan’s dysfunction; Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles will be the biggest benefactor if the Bills can’t figure out their pass rush issues.

Minnesota at Detroit: This is the first divisional rematch of the 2015 season, as the Vikings defeated the Lions 26-16 in Week 2; expect the Lions to go down the field more than they did last month.

New Orleans at Indianapolis: The Saints beat the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV, then embarrassed them 62-7 on national television in 2011; only OL Joe Reitz and OLB Robert Mathis remain as starters from that 2011 blowout. Expect the Colts offense to break out against the worst defense in the NFL.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City: If the Chiefs are going to break this five-game losing streak, they’ll need to get big plays from the pass rush against either inexperienced QB Landry Jones (would be first career start) or immobile QB Ben Roethlisberger (questionable after spraining MCL last month in Saint Louis).

Houston at Miami: The Texans are 7-0 all-time against the Dolphins, and they can get to 8-0 with big days from their stars; RB Arian Foster ¹, WR DeAndre Hopkins ², and DE J.J. Watt ³ all have great matchups on paper.

New York Jets at New England: Game of the Week: It’s the best defense in the league going up against the best offense in the league; this one will come down to turnovers, as New England QB Tom Brady is the best in the league at protecting the football at home ⁴.

Cleveland at Saint Louis: The Rams are at home and coming off a bye to face the Browns and QB Josh McCown, who has a 1-9 record as a starter indoors.

Atlanta at Tennessee: The Titans are forced to start 2nd-year QB Zach Mettenberger while rookie QB Marcus Mariota recovers from a sprained MCL; the Titans have had some success in pass defense, but a team can’t lose every game of a rare four-game homestand, can it?

Tampa Bay at Washington: The Buccaneers won only 2 games last year, but one of them was at Washington; the Buccaneers are coming off a bye, and even though it won’t be as windy Sunday at FedExField, Washington QB Kirk Cousins was benched in Week 7 last year for the rest of the season after a 1st half INT.

Oakland at San Diego: Since the merger, teams are 7-8 when their QB throws for at least 500 yards; San Diego QB Philip Rivers might want to stay under 500, because he’s going to be throwing a lot against Oakland’s thin secondary.

Dallas at New York Giants: The NFC East is trash, which seems to shock people every year; the Cowboys made a lot of changes on offense during the bye week, but they need their reloaded pass rush to lead them to a season sweep of the Giants.

Philadelphia at Carolina: The Eagles embarrassed the Giants’ OL on national television two years in a row, and they have an opportunity to do the same to the Panthers – Carolina QB Cam Newton took a career-high 9 sacks in Philadelphia last year in a Monday Night Football loss.

Baltimore at Arizona: This was supposed to be the game of the week, but the Ravens have gotten off to their worst start in franchise history; Baltimore’s only chance of winning in Arizona is to protect the football, as the Cardinals are 0-2 when losing the turnover margin this season.

First place in the AFC East is on the line this week! (Facebook/Tom Brady)