NFL 2015 Week 8 Gameplan

The four-week plus streak is over, as Week 7 resulted in a disastrous 5-9 slate. Lozenges all over the country!  Might as well cover them now:

– The Lions offensive line got three coaches fired this week, but I didn’t see the collapse of Detroit’s defense coming. Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater had 300+ passing yards and 2 TD for the first time this season.

– Similar theme with the Colts: Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck continues to turn the ball over at will, but Saints RB Mark Ingram had 143 rushing yards and a TD after not getting 80 rushing yards in either of the first 6 games of the season.

– All of those matchup advantages I thought the Texans had going to Miami … and the defense gives up 208 yards after the catch in the first half.

– The Titans found a way to lose all four games of a four-game homestand, as the Falcons ended both halves with key INTs of backup Tennessee QB Zach Mettenberger.

– Washington QB Kirk Cousins didn’t throw that INT against Tampa Bay’s defense; he threw a game-winning TD to complete a 24-point comeback against what is the 2nd-worst pass defense in the NFL right now.

– San Diego’s first game without FS Eric Weddle since 2009 could not have gone worse, as the Raiders hit them with 30 first half points; Oakland rookie WR Amari Cooper put Weddle’s replacement Jimmy Wilson on the wrong side of multiple highlights.

– The Cowboys haven’t forced any takeaways outside of their Week 2 visit to Philadelphia this season, and the Giants benefitted from staying clean in a game that saw Dallas cough it up 4 times.

– The Panthers literally ran over the Eagles to stay undefeated: Carolina rushed for a season-high 204 yards, which is the more than the Eagles gave up in the previous two games combined.

– Baltimore’s nightmare start continued in Arizona, as they lost yet another close game – no thanks to the worst pass defense in their franchise history, as Arizona QB Carson Palmer rang up 275 pass yards and another 2 TD.

Before I go into reviewing the teams on a Week 8 Bye, I have to address the sorry state of pass defense in the NFL. Here are the teams ranked in the bottom 8 in opposing passer ranking, from 25th to 32nd: Jacksonville, San Francisco, New Orleans, San Diego, Baltimore, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Detroit. All of these teams are currently at a franchise worst mark for opposing passer rating this season. 25 percent of the league! And all of them are below .500 entering Week 8. It’s a passing league, but as I wrote last year – defending the pass has become downright illegal. And that may be an even bigger deal than the success of passing games across the league.

Anyway, here’s some scheduling hope for the teams that are off this week. They’re all going to need it, especially considering that the only team to start 3-4 and win a Super Bowl were the 2001 New England Patriots:

1990: NFL schedule included bye weeks. (Each team got 2 byes in 1993.) Week 8 has yielded the most Super Bowl champs: pic.twitter.com/kU3C7cAYlG

— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 4, 2015

Buffalo: The Bills have started 3-4 for the 3rd time in 4 years, each with a different head coach (Rex Ryan this year, Doug Marrone in 2013, Chan Gailey in 2012). The 2012 and 2013 Bills both finished 6-10, and Ryan’s team has the look of another underachiever. This is where we kindly remind you that Ryan hasn’t had a winning season as head coach in 5 years. Nagging injury to WRs Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin have left big roles for WR Robert Woods and TE Charles Clay, and only Clay is averaging 50 receiving yards a game. Watkins, in particular, has been frustrated by what has been an embarrassing start to the season. And while the team isn’t having much success airing the ball out in games, they’re doing plenty of airing out the problems in public.

Jacksonville: The Jaguars blew a huge lead in London before getting bailed out at the end, securing head coach Gus Bradley’s 2nd win of the season and 9th win in his tenure. Despite being only 2-5, this is actually Jacksonville’s best start through 7 games since 2011, Jack Del Rio’s last season as head coach. Del Rio was still let go before the end of what turned out to be a 5-11 season. 5-11 would actually be an improvement over the 2012, 2013, and 2014 seasons, but in the sorry AFC South, Jacksonville should be aiming higher. They’re only a game out of 1st place, but the defense is still really bad. They have given up 6 rushing TD already and rank 30th in points allowed. Bradley is on the hot seat to get the defense to be competitive for four quarters.

Philadelphia: The Eagles are an eyesore at 3-4. Head coach Chip Kelly was 3-4 in 2013, and that team made the playoffs at 10-6. Now, in 2013, Kelly had QB Nick Foles ripping through the NFL for 27 TD and only 2 INTs.  21 of Foles’ TD passes in 2013 came in the last 8 weeks of the season. Foles was traded to Saint Louis for QB Sam Bradford this offseason, and Bradford’s been the weak link to start the season, throwing only 9 TDs and an NFL-high 10 INTs through 7 weeks. If Kelly can turn Bradford around in the 2nd half of the season, the Eagles can get back on track. Remember, Bradford hasn’t played a game in November since 2012 due to multiple ACL tears.

Washington: Here’s another team that actually may be happy to be 3-4, as the last time they reached that mark after 7 games was the 2012 season. Washington ended up in the postseason with a 10-6 record that year, winning out after the bye week with rookies QB Robert Griffin III and RB Alfred Morris. Now, Griffin is a weekly inactive behind QB Kirk Cousins, while Morris is losing touches to rookie RB Matt Jones in what is shaping up to be a brutal contract year. Morris is averaging only 3.3 yards per carries, and he hasn’t scored a TD on his 91 carries.  Washington has rushed for only 135 yards in the last 3 games combined. Here are your Week 8 picks: 

2015 #NFL Week 8 picks (5-9 in Week 7, +7 for 2015): MIA, KC, ATL, BAL, MIN, CLE, HOU, NO, PIT, SF, NYJ, DAL, DEN, IND — Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 29, 2015

Miami at New England:

Working on the Week 8 #NFL Gameplan, but as for #TNF – #Dolphins will get big game from DE Wake, while QB Tannehill has to keep D off field

— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) October 30, 2015

Detroit vs Kansas City:  The Lions have a new offensive coordinator (Jim Bob Cooter) and replaced two OL coaches after QB Matthew Stafford took a career-high 7 sacks; pass protection will still be an issue against a Chiefs team that has multiple sacks in three straight games.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The Buccaneers gave up 56 points in their trip to the Georgia Dome last season, and the pass defense is just terrible right now; WR Julio Jones should get back on track early in this game.

San Diego at Baltimore: After 4 games in the Pacific/Mountain time zones in the first 7 weeks of the season, the Ravens will stay in the Eastern time zone for the rest of the season; expect the Ravens to have success on the ground against a San Diego defense allowing a league-high 5.3 yards per rush.

Minnesota at Chicago: Vikings rookie WR Stefon Diggs has broken out with back-to-back 100-yard receiving games, and he’ll look for the hat trick against a secondary that is on pace to allow 40 TD passes this season.

Arizona at Cleveland: The Browns have a scheduling advantage, with the Cardinals traveling to the East Coast after a Monday night game; as usual, the only way Cleveland wins is by protecting the football and burning Arizona after the catch repeatedly with rookie RB Duke Johnson, WR Travis Benjamin, and TE Gary Barnidge.

Tennessee at Houston: The Texans released unprofessional QB Ryan Mallett and placed RB Arian Foster on injured reserve, but they’re catching a Titans team that has lost 15 of 16 games and will either be starting mobility-compromised rookie QB Marcus Mariota or QB Zach Mettenberger, who Houston DE J.J. Watt embarrassed last season.

New York Giants at New Orleans: It’ll be a homecoming for New York QB Eli Manning and WR Odell Beckham, Jr., but the key to this game will be Saints RB Mark Ingram against a Giants defense that has given up an average of 119 rushing yards to starting RBs the last three weeks.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis is 4-7-1 coming off of a bye, and that includes a 43-17 beatdown at New England last year; expect Pittsburgh RB Le’Veon Bell to give Cincinnati’s bottom-five run defense problems.

San Francisco at Saint Louis: The two worst offenses in the NFL go head to head, and it’ll be a big spot for San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick (who had his best game of 2014 in Saint Louis) and trade candidate TE Vernon Davis.

New York Jets at Oakland: We’re going to see just how far Oakland QB Derek Carr has come since his first career start, which came against the Jets at the Meadowlands; new Jets head coach Todd Bowles was with the Cardinals last season when they held the Raiders to 220 yards in Oakland.

Seattle at Dallas: Cowboys WR Dez Bryant has never scored against the Seahawks, but perhaps he’ll help QB Matt Cassel be another option; Dallas will be racking up the sacks against the worst pass blocking offensive line in the NFL.

Green Bay at Denver: Officially, this is the Game of the Week, as both teams are undefeated with former MVP QBs coming off a bye week; the Broncos have a top-3 run defense, a top-3 secondary, and the best pass rush in the league to go with the homefield advantage.

Indianapolis at Carolina: The Colts haven’t lost three straight games in a season since starting the 2011 season 0-13, which led to the drafting of QB Andrew Luck in 2012; the Panthers have the best pass defense in the league, so Luck needs RB Frank Gore to have his best game of the season.

The Cowboys were the only team to win in Seattle last year. The Seahawks will go to Dallas and try to even that score – and their record in time for midseason.