Welcome to the 2nd half of the 2016 NFL season! I would like to direct your attention to the 2016 NFL Hypothesis Report: Revisited, so this week’s Gameplan will be much shorter than usual. My Twitter works if you need a check and balance though!
I barely went over .500 last week, going 7-6. But that’s 9 weeks out of 9 over .500 so far this season. I’m not perfect, but I feel good about how the Hypothesis Report predictions forecasted the first half of the season.
The four teams on bye this week:
- Bills are 4-5 for the first time since 2005
- Colts are 4-5 for the second straight season
- Raiders are 7-2 for the first time since 2001
- Lions are 5-4 for the first time since 2000
The Broncos will visit the Mercedes-Benz Superdome to take on the Saints Sunday for the first time since 2004. The Broncos have won their last two games in New Orleans, but their first three games in franchise history at the Louisiana Superdome were disastrous results against three different opponents. The Broncos lost Super Bowl XII to the Cowboys in January 1978 27-10, lost Super Bowl XXIV to the 49ers in January 1990 55-10, and were shut out 42-0 against the Saints in November 1988. I’m expecting a third straight win for the Broncos in the dome, but it won’t be easy:
2016 #NFL Week 10 picks (7-6 in Week 9, +37 for 2016): BAL, CAR, HOU, DEN, NYJ, ATL, TB, GB, MIN, MIA, ARI, PIT, NE, CIN#TheNU
— Law Murray ? (@LawMurrayTheNU) November 9, 2016
Cleveland at Baltimore: The Browns had a 20-2 lead on the Ravens in Week 2 at the end of the 1st quarter. Then the wheels fell off, and the Ravens completed the 3rd-largest comeback in team history. The key to this game will be Cleveland sustaining run offense against one of the best run defenses in the league. Failure to do that will result in 0-10.
Dallas at Pittsburgh: The Cowboys have been running through teams and playing keepaway with the ball, but the Steelers do only one thing adequately defensively, and that’s stop the run. I say adequate because Pittsburgh is only 18th in the NFL in yards per rush allowed. The Steelers need to bank on the Big 3 of QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Le’Veon Bell, and WR Antonio Brown being healthy enough to stay on the field and put points up consistently.
Seattle at New England: I enjoy these teams, if only because of how mad people get when either are lying, cheating, or stealing. I’ll miss these teams when they’re gone, and you’d probably admit to missing them too later. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll has never coached at Gillette Stadium, as Foxboro Stadium was New England’s home venue when Bill Belichick replaced Carroll as New England’s head coach in 2000. This is a logistical disaster for Seattle, who can expect all kinds of run action from the Patriots, a team coming off a bye week. New England QB Tom Brady has thrown at least one INT in each of his 3 games against Seattle, but if he can make it through the Legion of Boom without an INT, then the Patriots will join the 1960 Browns (!) as the only teams in NFL history to not throw an INT in their first 9 games of a season.
Cincinnati at New York Giants: Watch for New York QB Eli Manning throwing to his left, even with WR Odell Beckham lining up wide left more than half of the time. Manning has only 1 TD and 4 INT throwing left this season, compiling an NFL-worst 70.4 passer rating among primary starting QBs this season. Cincinnati is coming off a bye and need WR A.J. Green to ball out against a much-improved New York secondary.
Super Bowl XLIX rematch! U MAD BRO?