The 2016 NFL Hypothesis Report: Revisited

Now that midseason officially hit this past Sunday, it’s time to revisit this year’s NFL Hypothesis Report. I’m going to jump right in here with the team-by-teams, but know that I’ve been assessing every team in some detail during their bye weeks at #TheNU. All I’ll do here is list where each team is at midseason, where I had them for the season and biggest strength/weakness.

New England Patriots (7-1; predicted: 13-3, 1st) … Strength: Pass defense (Patriots are 2nd in NFL in points per game allowed) … Weakness: Pass rush (Patriots have only 13 sacks, tied for 28th in NFL) … The Patriots have a team passer rating of 118.8, 2nd best in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins (4-4; predicted: 3-13, 4th) … Strength: Pass defense (Dolphins have allowed 11 TD passes, T-11th in NFL) … Weakness: Pass offense (Dolphins average 218.0 pass yards per game, 29th in NFL) … Miami has won 3 straight games with those talented tackles (1st round rookie Laremy Tunsil, former Pro Bowler Jermon Bushrod) at guard, paving the way for 2nd-year RB Jay Ajayi and limiting QB Ryan Tannehill’s influence on games.

Buffalo Bills (4-5; predicted: 5-11, 3rd) … Strength: Run offense (Bills have scored league-leading 16 rush TD) … Weakness: Pass offense (Bills average 188.7 pass yards per game, last in NFL) … The Bills started the season 0-2, went on a 4-game winning streak while not allowing any team to score 20 points, then lost 3 straight while giving up at least 28 points in each game.

New York Jets (3-6; predicted: 11-5, 2nd) … Strength: Run defense (allowing 3.5 yards per rush, 4th in NFL) … Weakness: Offensive line (Jets have allowed 20 sacks, and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick leads NFL with 14 INT) … The offense has been poor with Fitzpatrick, but the defense has been a major disappointment with CB Darrelle Revis struggling at age 31.

Baltimore Ravens (4-4; predicted: 7-9, 3rd) … Strength: Run defense (Ravens allow 76.1 rush yards per game, 2nd in NFL) … Weakness: Run offense (Ravens average 81.8 rush yards per game, 28th in NFL) … Flip a coin to decide if Baltimore will win; they are a .500 team with a +1 point differential, and all eight games have been decided by 8 points or less.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4; predicted: 13-3, 1st) … Strength: Pass offense (Steelers average 264.4 pass yards per game, 8th in NFL) … Weakness: Pass rush (Steelers have 3.5 sack percentage, 31st in NFL) … The Steelers are 3-0 at home this season when QB Ben Roethlisberger starts.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1; predicted: 10-6, 2nd) … Strength: Pass offense (Bengals average 275.1 pass yards per game, 4th in NFL) … Weakness: Run defense (Bengals allow 116.1 rush yards per game, 23rd in NFL) … Cincinnati hasn’t won consecutive games yet this season.

Cleveland Browns (0-9; predicted: 2-14, 4th) … Strength: Run offense (Browns average 4.8 yards per rush, 3rd in NFL) … Weakness: Pass defense (Browns allow 106.9 passer rating, 31st in NFL) … The Browns have already used 3 starting QBs this season, with another 2 QBs coming off the bench to replace injured starters.

Houston Texans (5-3; predicted: 11-5, 1st) … Strength: Pass defense (Texans allow 190.5 pass yards per game, 2nd in NFL) … Weakness: Pass offense (Texans average 5.4 yards per pass, last in NFL) … Houston is 5-0 at home, but they need more from their offense with DE J.J. Watt out for the season.

Indianapolis Colts (4-5; predicted: 6-10, 2nd) … Strength: Pass offense (QB Andrew Luck has 17 TD passes, T-5th in NFL) … Weakness: Pass defense (Colts allow 287.9 pass yards per game, 30th in NFL) … Luck has already been sacked an NFL-high 33 times this season.

Tennessee Titans (4-5; predicted: 1-15, 4th) … Strength: Run offense (Titans average 144.2 rush yards per game, 3rd in NFL) … Weakness: Pass defense (Titans have allowed 14 TD passes, T-18th in NFL) … Titans have allowed only 12 sacks this season, but they are -6 in turnover differential and 1-4 when they lose the turnover differential.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6; predicted: 4-12, 3rd) … Strength: Pass defense (Jaguars allow 217.6 pass yards per game, 5th in NFL) … Weakness: Run offense (Jaguars have 3 rush TD, T-29th in NFL) … Jacksonville has two 3-game losing streaks this season, and head coach Gus Bradley has already made a scapegoat of fired offensive coordinator Greg Olson.

Oakland Raiders (7-2; predicted: 13-3, 2nd) … Strength: Offensive line (Raiders allow 3.0 sack percentage, best in NFL) … Weakness: Pass defense (Raiders allow 7.8 yards per pass, 29th in NFL) … The defense gives up plays, but QB Derek Carr has a better chance of sustaining another strong start to the season this year than he did in 2015.

Kansas City Chiefs (6-2; predicted: 14-2, 1st) … Strength: Pass rush (OLB Dee Ford has 9 sacks, T-3rd in NFL; Chiefs lead NFL with 20 takeaways) … Weakness: Run defense (Chiefs allow 4.8 yards per rush, 30th in NFL) … The Chiefs lead the league in turnover differential, and they have zero turnovers during their 4-game winning streak.

Denver Broncos (6-3; predicted: 12-4, 3rd) … Strength: Pass defense (Broncos allow 67.2 passer rating, best in NFL) … Weakness: Pass offense (Broncos average 226.6 pass yards per game, 25th in NFL) … The Broncos allow the fewest yards per play in the league this season.

San Diego Chargers (4-5; predicted: 3-13, 4th) … Strength: Pass offense (QB Philip Rivers has 17 TD passes, T-5th in NFL) … Weakness: Special teams (Chargers are 27th in punt return average, 29th in kickoff return average, T-28th in punts inside the 20, etc.) … DE Joey Bosa and RB Melvin Gordon have returned their (delayed) 1st round investments, but the Chargers face an uncertain future in San Diego once again.

Dallas Cowboys (7-1; predicted: 9-7, 2nd) … Strength: Run offense (Cowboys average 165.3 rush yards per game, best in NFL) … Weakness: Pass rush (Cowboys have 6.0 sack percentage, 16th in NFL and 1.3 INT percentage, 27th in NFL) … The Cowboys lead the league in time of possession.

New York Giants (5-3; predicted: 11-5, 1st) … Strength: Pass defense (Giants allow 75.8 passer rating, 4th in NFL) … Weakness: Pass rush (Giants have 3.0 sack percentage, last in NFL) … All but one of New York’s games this season was decided by 7 points or less, and the Giants are 5-2 in those games.

Washington Redskins (4-3-1; predicted: 6-10, 3rd) … Strength: Pass offense (Washington averages 298.8 pass yards per game, 3rd in NFL) … Weakness: Run defense (Allow 4.9 yards per rush, 31st in NFL) … Washington’s run offense is better, but they will be without LT Trent Williams due to a 4-game suspension.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-4; predicted: 2-14, 4th) … Strength: Pass rush (Eagles have 23 sacks, T-5th in NFL) … Weakness: Pass offense (Eagles average 225.6 pass yards per game, 28th in NFL) … The Eagles are 1-3 since RT Lane Johnson began serving a 10-game suspension.

Minnesota Vikings (5-3; predicted: 14-2, 1st) … Strength: Pass defense (Vikings allow 70.5 passer rating, 3rd in NFL) … Weakness: Run offense (Vikings average 2.7 yards per rush, worst in NFL) … The Vikings allow the fewest points in the league, but they have to overcome the worst offense in the league if they will successfully defend their division title.

Detroit Lions (5-4; predicted: 9-7, 3rd) … Strength: Special teams (Lions are 4th in punt return average, T-6th in punt return coverage, and K Matt Prater is 3/3 on 50+ yard FGs in 4th quarter) … Weakness: Run offense (Lions average 86.8 rush yards per game, 27th in NFL) … All five of Detroit’s wins this season have been 4th quarter comebacks led by QB Matthew Stafford.

Green Bay Packers (4-4; predicted: 13-3, 2nd) … Strength: Run defense (Packers allow 75.8 rush yards per game, best in NFL) … Weakness: Pass defense (Packers allow 94.3 passer rating, 21st in NFL) … The Packers have been trending down, but QB Aaron Rodgers has played better, compiling a 106.4 passer rating in the last three weeks after starting the first five games with a passer rating of 88.4.

Chicago Bears (2-6; predicted: 4-12, 4th) … Strength: Run defense (Bears allow 3.9 yards per rush, 10th in NFL) … Weakness: Pass offense (Bears have 2.7 pass TD percentage, 31st in NFL) … Chicago is 31st in scoring offense despite ranking 31st in yards per game.

Atlanta Falcons (6-3; predicted: 7-9, 2nd) … Strength: Pass offense (QB Matt Ryan leads NFL with 23 TD passes) … Weakness: Pass defense (Falcons have allowed 23 TD passes, most in NFL) … Ryan is having an MVP caliber season while leading the top scoring offense in the league, but he’ll need to keep it up with Atlanta ranking 28th in scoring defense.

New Orleans Saints (4-4; predicted: 3-13, 4th) … Strength: Pass offense (Saints average 326.4 pass yards per game, best in NFL) … Weakness: Pass defense (Saints allow 300.0 pass yards per game, worst in NFL) … QB Drew Brees successfully incorporated rookie WR Michael Thomas and free agent TE Coby Fleener into the offense, but now SS Kenny Vaccaro faces a 4-game suspension.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5; predicted: 6-10, 3rd) … Strength: Run offense (Buccaneers average 108.0 rush yards per game, 16th in NFL) … Weakness: Pass defense (Buccaneers allow 103.5 passer rating, 30th in NFL) … RB Doug Martin has finished only one game this season, and the top of the rookie class has underwhelmed (0 INTs for CB Vernon Hargreaves, 3.0 sacks for DE Noah Spence, 7 missed kicks for K Roberto Aguayo).

Carolina Panthers (3-5; predicted: 11-5, 1st) … Strength: Run offense (9 rush TD, T-8th in NFL) … Weakness: Pass defense (Panthers allow 286.0 pass yards per game, 29th in NFL) … The Panthers have taken better care of the ball lately, but they dug a 1-5 hole in part due to too many giveaways.

Seattle Seahawks (5-2-1; predicted: 14-2, 1st) … Strength: Pass defense (6 pass TD allowed, T-2nd in NFL) … Weakness: Run offense (75.4 rush yards per game, 30th in NFL) … QB Russell Wilson hasn’t been a threat as a rusher this season, and unless he gets healthier, this will wind up being a wasted season for a Seahawks team that has rarely put complete performances together this season.

Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1; predicted: 13-3, 2nd) … Strength: Pass defense (Cardinals allow 69.1 passer rating, 2nd in NFL) … Weakness: Special teams (Cardinals have had multiple long snappers and punters, rank T-29th in field goal percentage, and 31st in punt return average) … The Cardinals have the best defense in the league, but pass protection has been a major issue for most of the season.

Los Angeles Rams (3-5; predicted: 5-11, 3rd) … Strength: Pass defense (Rams allow 6.2 yards per pass, 5th in NFL) … Weakness: Run offense (Rams have 4 rush TD, T-24th in NFL) … The Rams are dead last in scoring offense, coming away with points on a league-low 26.4 percent of drives this season.

San Francisco 49ers (1-7; predicted: 1-15, 4th) … Strength: Run offense (49ers have 10 rush TD, T-4th in NFL) … Weakness: Run defense (49ers allow 193.0 rush yards per game, worst in NFL) … Everyone wants to talk about head coach Chip Kelly’s offense and how long QB Colin Kaepernick will last as a starter, but San Francisco is on pace to allow the 2nd-most yards (behind 2012 Saints) and 2nd-most points (behind 1981 Colts) in a season in league history.

(PC: Twitter/NFLUK)