Before I get into the fun that is Week 14, a life update: I just finished my first week at the NFL Network as a researcher. The Networks United and the NFL Network! I got to work on Around the NFL with Lindsay Rhodes and Andrew Siciliano for most of the week. I’m scheduled to be at the NFLN for the rest of the season, so that’s cool. That’s really cool.
Now, a couple of notes on the playoff picture! It’s December, so it is time for the Networks United to address these things. As you all know from the NFL Hypothesis Report, all of my picks for the regular season were calculated before NFL Kickoff 2014. And I don’t change my picks during the season. My top six in the AFC when the season started were: Cincinnati, Denver, New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Pittsburgh. My top six in the NFC were: Seattle, Green Bay, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Detroit, San Francisco. All are still possibilities in those spots, but then again, teams have lost games I didn’t schedule them to lose. After all, I am coming off a 6-10 week, my worst of the season, while I dropped a Thursday night game already for Week 14.
The NFL playoff picture is insane. No team has clinched, and for the first time since 2002, no team has ten wins after Thanksgiving week. So using NFL.com’s Playoff Predictor, who gets in on my end?
Via NFL Playoff Predictor.
Via NFL Playoff Predictor.
Oh snap! So going off my picks for the rest of the regular season, the eight division winners I picked at the beginning of the season would hold up. But only the Ravens would keep the Wild Card spot. The Chargers would get Pittsburgh’s AFC Wild Card spot, while the Cowboys and Cardinals would get in ahead of the Lions and 49ers. Mind you, the Lions and 49ers would lose out in this scenario despite winning ten games each, while the Chargers would have as many wins as the Steelers and the Dolphins. Some good teams will miss the playoffs! And there’s the NFC South, who you shouldn’t be surprised by if the division champion messes around and wins a home game on Wild Card weekend. Shout out to the 2010 Seahawks.
And just a small note, but I have the Broncos winning the Super Bowl … and the last four games of the season. This is despite the fact that each of the last ten Super Bowl champions have lost at least one game in December/January. The last Super Bowl champion to sweep December were the 2003 New England Patriots, who entered the postseason on a 12-game winning streak.
2014 #NFL Week 14 picks (6-10 in Week 13, +35 in 2014): CHI, CIN, CLE, DET, HOU, MIA, NYJ, NO, NYG, STL, ARI, DEN, SF, SEA, NE, GB
— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) December 3, 2014
Dallas at Chicago: I wrote in the preview earlier this week that Chicago RB Matt Forte should have an opportunity to get all the yards against Dallas after he wasn’t involved much in Detroit for Thanksgiving. Well, Dallas held Forte to only 26 yards on 13 rushes, while the Cowboys got 228 total yards from RB DeMarco Murray in a 41-28 win. Chicago also lost WR Brandon Marshall to a serious injury, so that should do it for the Bears this season. I know a lot of folks like to get on QB Jay Cutler and head coach Marc Trestman, but these are GM Phil Emery’s players and DC Mel Tucker’s scheme. If Emery and Trestman stay, and I think they will, Tucker isn’t the answer. Paging Rex Ryan?
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Finally, the Steelers and Bengals meet for the first time this season. The Steelers came out of their Week 12 bye and laid an egg at home, relatively speaking. The run game should be key for Pittsburgh, with RB Le’Veon Bell coming in as one of only four players with 1,000 yards rushing. The Bengals allowed at least four yards per carry each of the first eight games of the season, but they have kept opponents under four yards a carry each of the last four games, and Cincinnati hasn’t allowed a team to rush for 100 yards during their three-game win streak. The Steelers are getting healthier on defense, but they’re in trouble if Cincinnati rookie RB Jeremy Hill gets it going against a Pittsburgh defense allowing 4.4 yards per rush (27th in NFL).
Indianapolis at Cleveland: The Trent Richardson Bowl! Richardson was the 3rd pick of the 2012 NFL Draft by the Cleveland Browns, and he came through with 1,317 total yards and 12 TDs as a Browns rookie. But he was traded to the Colts two games into the 2013 season for a 1st round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, and he’s been a running joke instead of running wild, combining for only 1,371 total yards and seven TDs in 25 games with the Colts. The Browns aren’t starting the QB they drafted using the Colts’ pick, going with QB Brian Hoyer over rookie Johnny Manziel and praying that Hoyer cuts the turnovers and allows WR Josh Gordon to abuse an Indianapolis defense missing CB Vontae Davis. If the Browns have success early, perhaps they press Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck into mistakes – Cleveland comes into this game with the NFL’s leading pass defense in terms of opposing passer rating.
Tampa Bay at Detroit: Tampa Bay QB Josh McCown played for Detroit in 2006, and he caught two passes for 15 yards! The Lions would draft WR Calvin Johnson second overall in 2007, and he’s been pretty good for Detroit. Johnson caught a season-high 11 passes on Thanksgiving with two TDs, and now he gets a bottom-ten Tampa Bay pass defense. McCown has to deal with a top-ten Detroit pass defense, and McCown hasn’t been good, throwing only seven TDs against nine INTs. Tampa Bay is still alive for the NFC South title at 2-10, but they shouldn’t be after Sunday.
Houston at Jacksonville: The Texans are alive at 6-6, which everyone will attribute to DE J.J. Watt, an MVP candidate for his dominating play on both sides of the ball. There’s a lot of pressure on Jacksonville rookie RG Brandon Linder and backup RT Sam Young to keep rookie QB Blake Bortles clean against the wrecking ball that is Watt. Keep in mind that Houston’s offense is coming off a franchise-best performance against the Titans; QB Ryan Fitzpatrick found six TD passes, WR DeAndre Hopkins had a career-high 238 receiving yards to check in as one of ten 1,000-yard receivers, and RB Arian Foster averaging 100 rushing yards a game. Houston forces the most turnovers in the league and are 5-2 when they win the turnover battle. Jacksonville didn’t have a turnover for the first time all season last week in their comeback win against the Giants; they haven’t had back-to-back games without a turnover since 2008.
Baltimore at Miami: The last time the Dolphins beat the Ravens was in overtime in 2007, when a TD by WR Greg Camarillo in overtime gave Miami their only win of that season. Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco are 4-0 against the Dolphins, including a 26-23 win in Miami last season sealed when Miami K Caleb Sturgis missed a 57-yard field goal set up by Baltimore’s sixth sack of the game. Needless to say, Miami needs to protect Tannehill better so that he can attack a Baltimore pass defense that has allowed 13 TDs against four INTs since CB Jimmy Smith was lost for the season. Baltimore will be without DT Haloti Ngata for the rest of the season due to suspension, thrusting rookie DT Timmy Jernigan into a more prominent role – Jernigan, like Ngata, has two sacks this season. Miami better clean up their run defense 1 against Baltimore RB Justin Forsett, who is fourth in the league in rushing yards while averaging 5.6 yards a carry.
New York Jets at Minnesota: The Vikings have only beaten the Jets once in franchise history: 1975 at Minnesota’s Metropolitan Stadium, a 29-21 Vikings win that saw Minnesota RB Chuck Foreman rack up 201 total yards and three total TDs. That was also the last time the Jets played an outdoor road game against the Vikings, as they went 3-0 against the Vikings at the Metrodome. New York has won eight straight games overall against the Vikings, but this is the nadir period of the Rex Ryan era, featuring an abominable QB situation. Coming off a tough loss and going on the road in a short week is usually not the business, so the only way they knock off the Vikings is if Ryan can get to rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater. Rookie QBs are 2-8 against Ryan’s Jets, and the Jets knocked off the Oakland Raiders and rookie QB Derek Carr, the only team that started a rookie QB against them.
Carolina at New Orleans: The Saints are back home, where they were last seen losing all three games of a homestand for the first time since 1997. Before that homestand, the Saints went to Carolina and beat the Panthers 28-10, and the Saints are coming off an impressive in at Heinz Field. Who are these guys? Carolina still has a chance to win the division, but they haven’t won a game in over two months, struggling to do anything right. New Orleans QB Drew Brees had five TD passes last week without even targeting TE Jimmy Graham; Graham had 83 yards receiving and a TD in Carolina in October.
New York Giants at Tennessee: New York has the longest losing streak in the league at seven games, and they have never beaten the Titans. 2 The Titans are dreadful, but so are the Jaguars, and the Giants blew a 21-point lead in North Florida last week. Look for New York to get rookie RB Andre Williams a lot of work, as RB Rashad Jennings isn’t 100 percent and Tennessee’s run defense has already allowed 13 TDs. Tennessee rookie QB Zach Mettenberger should start despite a shoulder injury, but he probably wishes he had his LSU teammate, New York rookie WR Odell Beckham, on his side after losing WR Justin Hunter for the season. This is the only game featuring two teams eliminated from the playoffs.
Saint Louis at Washington: Everyone is coming at Washington QB Robert Griffin’s neck after his stock reached “Vince Young benched for Kerry Collins” levels last month. Saint Louis received four first round picks to allow Washington to draft Griffin second overall in 2012, and while QB Sam Bradford has torn his ACL twice since Griffin won the 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year award, the Rams and former Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher 3 don’t get as much crap for passing on Griffin as they did two years ago. Now, to discuss players that will actually take the field Sunday. The Rams just destroyed the Raiders at home, and the key for them is always going to be whether or not QB Shaun Hill can protect the football. The Rams have 12 straight wins when they win the turnover battle under head coach Jeff Fisher. The other key to that is the Saint Louis pass rush and their ability to get to Washington QB Colt McCoy; Washington has allowed 22 sacks during their four-game losing streak.
Kansas City at Arizona: Kansas City QB Alex Smith has 15 TD passes this season – eight to TEs, seven to RBs, and zero to WRs! That plays into the hands of Arizona’s defensive philosophy, as they play aggressive man-to-man coverage on the outside, forcing teams to look to the middle of the field. Of course, Arizona got completely lit up in Atlanta, allowing 500 yards for the third time this season. Expect Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles and TE Travis Kelce to be heavily involved against an Arizona defense that will be without DB Tyrann Mathieu. Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald is a game-time decision, RB Andre Ellington is out, and QB Drew Stanton has been ineffective lately, so Arizona’s only chance is to get some shot plays down the field mixed in with forcing Smith into multiple mistakes.
Buffalo at Denver: The Bills lead the NFL in sacks, averaging one per quarter. The Broncos allow the fewest sacks in the league, as Denver QB Peyton Manning has been dropped only 13 times in 12 games. The Bills also start QB Kyle Orton, who started 33 games for Denver from 2009 to 2011. Buffalo rookie WR Sammy Watkins remains the best (only?) weapon on the team, but he is struggling right now. 4 Buffalo has a top-four pass defense to go with that pass rush, and they are one of eight teams that allow less than four yards per rush, so they are well-equipped to challenge the Broncos in Denver.
San Francisco at Oakland: The battle of the Bay! Both teams were embarrassed in Week 13, but in very different ways. The 49ers have been thoroughly unimpressive offensively, and a loss in Oakland to a Raiders team that gave up 52 points in Saint Louis may get head coach Jim Harbaugh fired on the spot. San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick has been sacked more than any other passer, but luckily for him, Oakland has the fewest sacks in the league entering Week 14. The Raiders have also scored the fewest points in the league, and points are not easy to come by against a San Francisco defense that has allowed only 15.8 points per game since their Week 8 bye.
Seattle at Philadelphia: This is the Game of the Week, featuring two former Pac-12 head coaches in Seattle’s Pete Carroll (USC) and Philadelphia’s Chip Kelly (Oregon). Kelly’s Philadelphia QB, Mark Sanchez, used to be Carroll’s QB at USC. This game also brings Seattle QB Russell Wilson to Philadelphia; Wilson told former scout Daniel Jeremiah that he would lead the Eagles to championships before the 2012 draft. Sanchez struggled in his only game against the Seahawks, going 9-for-22 for only 124 passing yards and an INT in a 28-7 loss in Seattle as a member of the Jets in 2012. The Seahawks have won their last three games in Philadelphia by a combined score of 108-24, while the last meeting between the teams was a 2011 Thursday night win by the Seahawks that saw Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch rush for 148 yards and two TDs, earning him all the Skittles.
New England at San Diego: If the Patriots lose and/or TE Rob Gronkowski gets injured again, you’ll never hear the end of the Bieber curse:
The last time Bieber was associated with an NFL team, the Steelers lost to the Jets. Unlike that game, this game is actually interesting, featuring New England QB Tom Brady (45-7 in December starts) and San Diego QB Philip Rivers (30-6 in December starts). These guys don’t have to win or lose – they could always tie – though Rivers’ Chargers are 0-5 against the Patriots when QB Tom Brady starts. The last time Brady saw the San Diego defense was in 2011, when he lit them up for 423 yards and three TDs – expect New England TEs Gronkowski and Tim Wright to play a major role in Brady’s success Sunday night.
Atlanta at Green Bay: This game marks Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers’ 100th regular season start. The first 99 have gone well: 219 TDs, 54 INTs, 67 wins, 274.7 yards passing per game, 107.1 passer rating. Of course, Rodgers didn’t make his first start until his fourth NFL season – players get chewed up and spit out in less than that time now. Atlanta’s pass defense hasn’t been bad this season, 5 but they can’t rush the passer, which could be a problem against a passer who has thrown 20 TDs without an INT at home this season. Atlanta played great at home against a nine-win team in the Cardinals, but they’ll need QB Matt Ryan to play his best road game of the season – Ryan has thrown multiple TD passes only once in six road games this season.
Pete Carroll (right) was QB Mark Sanchez’ head coach at USC. Now, former Oregon head coach Chip Kelly hopes Sanchez can lead the Eagles to a win over Carroll’s Seahawks. (PC: The Oregonian)