The 2014 NFL Hypothesis Report

This study here shows that the most important element of a Super Bowl winning team is the ability to get to the passer and take the ball away. In an era where the best passers rule supreme, it is more important to be able to stop the great passer than it is to possess the great passer. Several great, Super Bowl­winning passers have lost Super Bowls in the past ten years: Tom Brady twice, Kurt Warner, Ben Roethlisberger, and Peyton Manning twice. All of those players brought their teams to the Super Bowl, only to meet defenses that would hit them often, or worse, make them flinch just enough to lose possession. The last ten Super Bowl champions averaged 42.9 sacks per season and 19.6 interceptions per season. In the Super Bowl, the winning team has averaged 2.2 sacks a game, 1.4 interceptions, and 0.5 pick­sixes over the last ten years. The pick-­six has been a huge boost: teams are 5­0 when returning an interception for a touchdown in the Super Bowl over the last ten years, and 12­0 overall all time.

I’m especially proud of the work Sarang and I put together, and a shout out to Dr. Jeremy Abramson for overseeing it. The unit analysis has been a staple of mine since I left Cal U, and hopefully it will continue to develop and evolve. In an effort to refresh what the Hypothesis Report is all about, please remember this:

• I’ll share with you my picks, but understand that it is simply a hypothesis; a barometer if you will.  Once again, I picked all 256 regular season games on the NFL schedule.
• I predict all of these games before the regular season and don’t change a single pick until the playoffs, no matter how drastically different a team can get over the course of a season.
• In the scientific method, my hypothesis are these predictions based off of nine factors: passing offense, rushing offense, offensive line, pass rush, run defense, pass defense, and special teams, as well as coaching and intangibles.  I don’t grade the last two factors but they figure into my game-to-game matchups.
• The games are the experiment that tests every prediction.
• Crazy stuff happens in games, and it’s a field day for people like me to break it all down.  That’s where I go to work: ANALYSIS.
• I hold myself accountable for my outrageous methodology, but respect the 2013 record: 149-106-1, plus the Super Bowl!  If you picked all 256 games before the season last year without changing a single pick, then you’re on my level.

In the interest of brevity, I’m going to once again keep the analysis of the teams here to a sentence. Included for your edification are the grades that I concluded after the preseason ended last week.

[important]AFC[/important]

AFC EAST: New England Patriots (12-4, 3rd in AFC), New York Jets (8-8), Miami Dolphins (7-9), Buffalo Bills (5-11)

New England is going to have a few more turnovers than usual this season, but they may also have their strongest secondary in a decade. The Jets are going to be tough on the line of scrimmage, but the passing skies don’t look nearly as friendly. The new offense in Miami is supposed to model Philadelphia’s, while the defense needs better play from the linebackers. Buffalo is turning up the heat on their quarterback situation while adjusting to another scheme change defensively.

AFC NORTH: Cincinnati Bengals (14-2, 1st in AFC), Baltimore Ravens (10-6, 5th in AFC), Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7, 6th in AFC), Cleveland Browns (7-9)

The emphasis on ball control should elevate the Bengals to the next level; they already have one of the league’s most well-rounded defenses. Baltimore’s offensive improvement will have to come more from scheme than personnel, but the front seven should be a little better. Pittsburgh should be better prepared to start the season knowing that the passing game will have to carry the team. Cleveland will spend the entire season hiding their passers, though the front seven should make a lot of plays.

AFC SOUTH: Indianapolis Colts (8-8, 4th in AFC), Tennessee Titans (7-9), Houston Texans (6-10), Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)

The Colts continue to hamstring their quarterback with a weak run game, a mangled offensive line, and an average defense. Tennessee needs their young offensive skill players to take a step, while they oddly switch to a 3-4 defense for the first time in a quarter century. The Texans are going to be inconsistent on both sides of the ball, despite the top-heavy star power. Jacksonville is arguably the least talented team in the league, which will make it tough on their aggressive front seven to keep them in games.

AFC WEST: Denver Broncos (13-3, 2nd in AFC), Kansas City Chiefs (8-8), San Diego Chargers (5-11), Oakland Raiders (4-12)

There should be some regression of Denver’s record-breaking offense from a year ago, but the defensive talent improved at every position. Kansas City should be holding their collective breath on every play involving their running back or their outside linebackers, as their success is heavily reliant on three players. San Diego got an MVP-caliber season from their quarterback last season; the defense needs to find some consistent playmakers. Somehow, the Raiders have the oldest roster in the league; there is enough talent in the front seven to keep games close but not enough to make up for their burnable secondary, and none of their skill players can take over games consistently.

AFC WILD CARD: Patriots over Steelers, Colts over Ravens

AFC DIVISIONAL: Bengals over Colts, Broncos over Patriots

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Broncos over Bengals

[notice]NFC[/notice]

NFC EAST: Philadelphia Eagles (10-6, 4th in NFC), New York Giants (7-9), Dallas Cowboys (6-10), Washington Redskins (5-11)

The Eagles will have to spread the ball around offensively, but they still have the top running back in the league. The Giants are putting in a new offense that doesn’t fit their quarterback, while the defense will rely more on their defensive backs instead of what used to be a deep defensive line. The Cowboys are going to produce a lot offensively, but they may be less talented defensively than the group that gave up the most yards in league history last year. Washington is taking the worst of their division rivals with an adjustment period offensively, a seriously flawed defense, and a shaky special teams unit.

NFC NORTH: Green Bay Packers (11-5, 2nd in NFC), Detroit Lions (11-5, 5th in NFC), Minnesota Vikings (6-10), Chicago Bears (6-10)

Green Bay doesn’t look impressive on the line of scrimmage, but they are one of only two teams with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback paired with a 2013 1,000-yard rusher. Detroit has no reason to miss the postseason if their quarterback keeps the fundamentals tight all season and the front seven consistently plays up to their talent level. The Vikings are entering another season of offensive imbalance, while it will be a major accomplishment to cover up for what has been an annually underperforming secondary. Chicago is another team with awesome offensive potential possibly gone to waste due to a decaying defense.

NFC SOUTH: New Orleans Saints (10-6, 3rd in NFC), Carolina Panthers (8-8), Atlanta Falcons (6-10), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)

The Saints need to do a better job in the run games, especially when playing outdoor contests, but they’re going to be tough to prepare for. Carolina has a shallow group of receivers, blockers and defensive backs, though their ferocious front seven from last year is mostly intact to start the season. Atlanta is trying to mix fronts up defensively to make up for their lack of defensive playmakers, and they may be setting up to get their quarterback hit a lot this season. The Buccaneers are going with a basketball approach on offense while hoping free agency and coaching upgrades will better support their impact players defensively.

NFC WEST: Seattle Seahawks (15-1, 1st in NFC), San Francisco 49ers (10-6, 6th in NFC), Saint Louis Rams (7-9), Arizona Cardinals (6-10)

Seattle still has the league’s premiere secondary and may be ready to let their quarterback throw 500 passes, which hasn’t happened since 2007. The 49ers haven’t allowed a quarterback to throw 500 passes since 2002, longest streak in the league; the pass offense will need to do more this season after the defense was decimated by injury, suspension and defection. The Rams may have the league’s most disruptive defensive line, and the loss of their starting quarterback has worked out before (see: 1999), but the secondary and pass offense remain confounding question marks. The Cardinals have similarly been decimated by injury, suspension and defection defensively, while their annually poor offensive line tries to allow fewer than 40 sacks for the first time since 2009 (203 sacks allowed since 2010, most in the league).

NFC WILD CARD: 49ers over Saints, Eagles over Lions

NFC DIVISIONAL: Seahawks over 49ers, Packers over Eagles

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Seahawks over Packers

[warning] SUPER BOWL XLIX[/warning]

BRONCOS over SEAHAWKS

That’s right, I’m predicting the first Super Bowl rematch since 1993-1994, and an improved defense could allow Denver to become the first team since the 1972 Miami Dolphins to win the Super Bowl a year after losing it. As much love as I have for the Seahawks, they did mess around and put Richard Sherman on the cover of Madden. And utilizing what you learned from The Units article, you should pay more attention to Von Miller this season than Peyton Manning.

Keep it locked at the NetworksUnited as this will be my only official NFL outlet as of press time! (Credit: UnderConsideration)

-1SKILLZ