It’s Week 15 … and no one has clinched a playoff spot yet!
There are only nine teams eliminated from the playoff picture, with the Saint Louis Rams taking their rightful place in that group for the tenth straight season after losing to the Arizona Cardinals Thursday night. Week 15 has 11 total division matchups, including Thursday night, and only two games have nothing to do with the playoff picture – and both involve the New York teams.
It’s Sunday morning, so let’s get right into it:
2014 #NFL Week 15 picks (9-7 in Week 14, +37 in 2014): ARI, PIT, BAL, GB, CAR, CIN, MIN, IND, KC, NE, WAS, DEN, TEN, SEA, PHI, NO
— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) December 11, 2014
Arizona at Saint Louis: Here’s what I wrote for the #ThursdayNightBeatdowns preview:
Arizona is going to have QB Drew Stanton chuck and duck with his full complement of receivers, while attempting to overwhelm Saint Louis with their pass rush. The Cardinals have 25 sacks over the last eight weeks, tied for fifth in the league, and even with injuries to CB Antonio Cromartie and S Tyrann Mathieu, expect Arizona to make things difficult for Saint Louis QB Shaun Hill. Saint Louis rookie RB Tre Mason will be challenged in pass protection against blitz-happy Arizona as well.
The Cardinals were able to get through another QB injury vs. the Rams to win 12-6, and their pass rush won this game. Don’t feel sorry for the Cardinals – they’re going to make the playoffs, and they still have plenty of healthy players who are a big reason for that.
Pittsburgh at Atlanta: The last time a player gained 200+ total yards against Atlanta was Detroit WR Calvin Johnson in 2012, and the last time a RB did it was former Saint Louis and current Atlanta RB Steven Jackson in 2008. Pittsburgh RB Le’Veon Bell has three straight games of at least 200 yards, and now he gets an Atlanta defense in the Georgia Dome that gives up a league-high 6.2 yards per play. Another 30 touches for Bell should get it done. Atlanta won’t have WR Julio Jones on a short week, which is a shame. Jones has more receiving yards this season than Roddy White, Devin Hester and Harry Douglas have combined.
Jacksonville at Baltimore: The Jaguars haven’t won a road game in over a year, and it’s going to be hard for them to get a win in Baltimore with their offensive difficulties. The Ravens are 6-0 this season when they hold opponents under 20 points. Jacksonville should pepper rookie WR Marqise Lee with all the targets against a Baltimore defense struggling to find healthy CBs for game day. But Baltimore OLBs Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs are a major mismatch for Jacksonville’s offensive line. Baltimore RB Justin Forsett played for the Jaguars in 2013, and he’s outrushed all of Jacksonville’s RBs by himself in 2014.
Green Bay at Buffalo: This one is going to test the Packers, who are coming into Buffalo on a short week. The Packers have never won in upstate New York, losing games in 1979, 1988, 1994, 2000, and 2006. Of course, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has only played one game against Buffalo, a 34-7 win in 2010 at Lambeau Field. The Bills had to deal with Denver QB Peyton Manning last week, and they didn’t do a bad job, snapping Manning’s TD streak. Rodgers is a more formidable challenge due to his arm strength and mobility, but Buffalo’s pass rush is no joke.
Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Panthers went into New Orleans last week and held QB Drew Brees to his worst home start in four seasons. Carolina QB Derek Anderson is a sharp downgrade in accuracy and mobility from Cam Newton, but he was effective in a Week 1 win in Tampa Bay. Carolina had the services of DE Greg Hardy in Week 1 though, so they will have to find a way to harass Tampa Bay QB Josh McCown in other ways. That shouldn’t be too difficult – McCown is completing only 52 percent of his passes during Tampa Bay’s three-game losing streak, throwing five INTs over that span. Expect rookie WRs Mike Evans (Tampa Bay) and Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina) to have opportunities in the red zone.
Cincinnati at Cleveland: Cleveland finally went ahead and gave rookie QB Johnny Manziel the starting job. The last time the Browns got competent QB play was actually their win in Cincinnati, QB Brian Hoyer’s last game without an INT. Since then, Hoyer threw one TD and eight INTs over a four-game stretch, with the Browns losing three of those games. Manziel adds more arm talent and mobility, but keep in mind that it took Manziel until December to beat out a journeyman coming off an ACL tear. Cincinnati WR A.J. Green usually struggles against Cleveland CB Joe Haden, and QB Andy Dalton was awful against the Browns last month, so expect rookie RB Jeremy Hill to be the key to the Bengals keeping their division lead.
Minnesota at Detroit: The Vikings are entering Week 15 in the same condition as the Rams: lose and the bubble bursts. Minnesota QB Teddy Bridgewater is coming off the two best starts in his career, completing 34 of 48 passes for 447 yards, four TDs, and only one INT in back-to-back wins. His worst game of the season came against the Lions in October, throwing a career-high three INTs and taking eight sacks. Bridgewater is going to have to come through on the road, because he can’t expect too much run support against a Detroit defense allowing a league-low 3.0 yards per rush. The Vikings absolutely have to overwhelm Detroit QB Matthew Stafford with the pass rush; Stafford is even hotter than Bridgewater the last two weeks with 601 passing yards and five TDs in back-to-back Lions wins.
Houston at Indianapolis: The Texans have lost all 12 games played in Indianapolis, and an Indianapolis win gives the Colts the division. They won’t have the services of WR Andre Johnson, who was concussed in Jacksonville, or rookie OLB Jadeveon Clowney, who is out for a year with microfracture knee surgery. Indianapolis CB Vontae Davis is back for Indianapolis, so things aren’t going to be easy for Houston’s passing game; it should be the Arian Foster show once again. Houston might need DE J.J. Watt to score two TDs in this one. Indianapolis WR T.Y. Hilton dropped 223 yards and a TD in Houston back in October, and he’s racked up 334 receiving yards and four TDs during Indianapolis’ three-game winning streak.
Oakland at Kansas City: The Raiders won last week and they beat Kansas City three weeks ago. But last time they were in Missouri, they were coming off the Chiefs win and got rolled 52-0 in Saint Louis. The Chiefs are playing for their playoff lives, so expect them to give RB Jamaal Charles all the touches he can handle. Who knows, Kansas City might even get one of their sorry WRs a TD this week. Oakland’s pass protection has been good this season and RB Latavius Murray is going to finish what he started the last time he faced the Chiefs, but rookie QB Derek Carr hasn’t been effective on the road.
Miami at New England: All of the rematches! The Dolphins ran the Patriots off the field in Miami to start the season, but now the Patriots are a win away from clinching the division. It’s been over six years since the Patriots lost a regular season home game to an AFC team, and the 2008 Wildcat game was the last time the Dolphins won in New England. So naturally, it’s going to be all about the run game for both teams. The Patriots held San Diego to -4 rushing yards in the second half last week, while Miami has given up a league-high 661 rushing yards over the last three weeks.
Washington at New York Giants: This will not be the NFC East game getting your attention. The good news for Washington is that WR DeSean Jackson is back, and New York’s defense isn’t the same unit that held Jackson to a season-low nine yards in September. Washington is starting QB Colt McCoy despite not being cleared to play until Friday, and they’ll continue to hope that he avoids mistakes. Washington DC Jim Haslett has usually come through against New York QB Eli Manning, and his unit owes him one after Manning lit them up for five total TDs in September. New York rookie WR Odell Beckham is going to torch Washington’s secondary, but I like Washington OLB Ryan Kerrigan to have multiple big plays to help Washington pull an upset.
Denver at San Diego: The Chargers had to deal with Tom Brady last week at home, and now they get Peyton Manning, who found WR Emmanuel Sanders for 120 yards and three TDs in Week 8. The passing game wasn’t San Diego’s only issue, as they gave up 109 yards to Denver RB Ronnie Hillman and two TDs to rookie RB Juwan Thompson. Denver RB C.J. Anderson has 438 total yards and five total TDs during Denver’s three-game winning streak. Denver TE Julius Thomas is also back, so San Diego will have their hands full containing Denver’s offense this week. And to make matters more complicated, Denver’s defense is starting to heat up again as well, so expect San Diego’s offensive line to be overwhelmed.
New York Jets at Tennessee: The Chris Johnson Bowl! This game features two of the five teams with a league-high 11 losses. Tennessee has lost a league-high seven games in a row. Johnson and New York RB Chris Ivory should get all the touches they can handle against Tennessee’s weak run defense, especially considering the dysfunctional New York passing game. Tennessee will start QB Jake Locker, who dropped three TD passes on New York in a 38-13 win last season.
San Francisco at Seattle: This feels like a funeral for the 49ers, who could be eliminated with a loss at CenturyLink Field. We’ll see if San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick rushes more often, but with Seattle’s speed showing up in a big way over the last few weeks, that may be a moot point. Kaepernick was a disaster only 17 days ago against the Legion of Boom, and he has back-to-back multi-INT games for the first time in his career. Kaepernick could use some help from his defense, as they made Oakland QB Derek Carr look as good as he has all season. As long as Seattle QB Russell Wilson continues to protect the football and himself, the Seahawks should control this matchup and sweep the 49ers for the first time under head coach Pete Carroll.
Dallas at Philadelphia: This is the Game of the Week, and another rematch from Thanksgiving. The Cowboys have to hustle to the ball and stop Philadelphia RB LeSean McCoy. That’s their only chance to bounce back and take control of the division. Philadelphia stopped Dallas RB DeMarco Murray from getting untracked and blew up QB Tony Romo for his worst game in five years. Dallas catches a break, having played last Thursday night, while this will be Philadelphia’s last home game of the season.
New Orleans at Chicago: The Saints were terrible at home, so maybe it’s a good thing that they will visit Soldier Field for Monday night. The Saints won in Chicago last year, getting great pass protection despite having to kick four field goals. Chicago won’t have WR Brandon Marshall, and QB Jay Cutler had to address trust issues with Chicago OC (and former New Orleans interim head coach) Aaron Kromer, so the distraction angle is there for an offense that can’t run the football or come up with big plays. As long as New Orleans QB Drew Brees holds onto the football, the Saints should get themselves a big win to keep pace in the drudge that is the 2014 NFC South.
Dallas and Philadelphia are both 9-4, with the Eagles beating the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Another big day from Philadelphia RB LeSean McCoy will likely lead to a season sweep of Dallas (PC: Tom Pennington/Getty).