It’s week 16, and the playoff race is still ridiculous. How ridiculous? Consider that of the 16 games in Week 16, 14 of them have at least minor playoff implications! The exceptions were Thursday Night Football, the first time in NFL history that two 12-loss teams met in primetime, and the Giants/Rams game, which may be the last game in Saint Louis.
Only four teams have clinched playoff berths, and 17 more remain in the hunt. Some teams can get in with a win and no help: Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Cincinnati. There are a several teams that are down to their last week of relevance, such as Cleveland, Houston, and Miami. And, of course, there’s the NFC South, where the dream of a six-win playoff team is still alive!
On a lesser scale, Week 16 marks the last week for regular season games outside of the division. The breakdown: two AFC divisional games, four NFC divisional games, four AFC intra-conference games, two NFC intra-conference games, and four inter-conference games.
2014 #NFL Week 16 picks (11-5 in Week 15, +43 in 2014): TEN, SF, PHI, CAR, DET, BAL, MIA, NO, NYJ, PIT, GB, STL, DAL, OAK, SEA, DEN
— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) December 18, 2014
Tennessee at Jacksonville: Here’s what I wrote in the preview for the last #ThursdayNightBeatdowns game of the season:
Tennessee sacked Blake Bortles six times in October, and Tennessee started QB Charlie Whitehurst, who didn’t turn the ball over. That gameplan is going to be the move for the Titans again.
Well, the Titans did get to Bortles four times, as the Jaguars set a new franchise record for sacks allowed in a season with 66. But just like the previous week on #ThursdayNightBeatdowns, the opposing pass rush ended the game, as Jacksonville DT Sen’Derrick Marks got the fourth sack of the game for the Jaguars to seal a 21-13 win. Marks has 8.5 sacks this season, triggering a bonus in his contract.
Philadelphia at Washington: Thursday Night Football on Saturday: kind of like Saturday Night Live specials during the week. Philadelphia QB Mark Sanchez was unimpressive in Philadelphia’s last two home games of the season, continuing his career-long habit of shaky decision-making and accuracy. With the Eagles a game out of the last Wild Card spot and the NFC East, they need Sanchez to act like he knows against the worst pass defense in the NFL. Philadelphia also needs to stay on the field, as they have had back-to-back games of less than 20 minutes of time of possession. Washington QB Robert Griffin III takes more sacks per dropback than any other QB, which will be a problem against a Philadelphia defense that has the most sacks in the NFC.
San Diego at San Francisco: The 49ers already lost to one California team this month, and their season of hell continued this week, with Michigan rumors surrounding lame duck head coach Jim Harbaugh and the release of DT Ray McDonald. The Chargers are a game out of the last Wild Card spot, and QB Philip Rivers is struggling with a back injury. Rivers’ backup is QB Kellen Clemens, who has thrown three passes all season. Since 2010, San Diego backup QBs have received the least work in the NFL, 1 and Rivers started the 2007 AFC Championship with a torn ACL. But scoring may be difficult for the Chargers, as they will be thin at RB and WR with Ryan Mathews and Keenan Allen out, respectively.
Cleveland at Carolina: The Browns are still alive for the playoffs, but their dreadful QB play, inconsistent supporting cast, and whatever-the-opposite-of-clutch-is defense is a game away from killing that pipe dream. Cleveland had the worst offensive output of any team in the league this season in rookie QB Johnny Manziel’s first start, though the run defense of the Browns took the control of the game away from Cleveland early. Carolina’s defense has been playing better since the bye week, and the Panthers are playing to stay alive in the slugfest that is the NFC South division title race. Only the Seahawks and Rams have allowed fewer yards than the Panthers since their Week 12 bye, allowing only 157.3 passing yards in the last three games. Carolina also gets QB Cam Newton back, although RB Jonathan Stewart should get all the work he can handle against what has proven to be a soft Cleveland front seven.
Detroit at Chicago: Detroit blew out the Bears on Thanksgiving, and now the first-place Lions get to chew on Chicago QB Jimmy Clausen. People love to hate Chicago QB Jay Cutler, as his demeanor and turnovers make him not look the part of the “well-dressed, CEO, franchise QB.” I know that garbage time has played a role, but Cutler actually was pulling in a career-high completion percentage and passer rating, and he has never thrown more than the 28 TDs he is sitting on right now. Chicago head coach Marc Trestman is literally throwing Clausen to the Lions, which is a move that suggests to me that Trestman would rather set up his next offensive coordinator job. Clausen, who has three TD passes in 308 attempts, 2 isn’t going to save a Chicago defense that has given up the most points in the NFL since Trestman became head coach.
Baltimore at Houston: Baltimore OC Gary Kubiak was Houston’s head coach from 2006 until a Week 14 Thursday Night Football loss to Jacksonville last season. The Ravens are 23 points away from setting a franchise record in points scored, and 516 yards away from setting a franchise record in offensive yards. Houston presents a good challenge, as the Texans lead the NFL in takeaways and have a world destroying DPOY frontrunner in DE J.J. Watt. Running the ball, something Baltimore has done exceptionally well for most of the season, will be a challenge. But doing anything constructive on offense will be a challenge for Houston, as RB Arian Foster will be met by a front seven looking to unload on a QB who wasn’t with the team a month ago.
Minnesota at Miami: The Vikings haven’t won in Miami since 1976, and they’ll have to do it against a desperate Dolphins team. Miami has suffered critical losses each December under head coach Joe Philbin, and they come into this game on a two-game losing streak. Miami has allowed the most rushing yards in the league over the last four weeks. Fortunately for them, the Vikings haven’t been anything special on the ground since placing rookie RB Jerick McKinnon on injured reserve. Miami QB Ryan Tannehill will have to protect the football, which he should be able to do against a Minnesota defense struggling to take the ball away. 3
Atlanta at New Orleans: Atlanta has not swept New Orleans since 2005, when the Saints were playing home games at the Alamodome in San Antonio because of Hurricane Katrina. Atlanta’s Week 1 victory was thrilling, with field goals at the end of regulation and overtime capping a victory marked by QB Matt Ryan’s franchise-record 448 passing yards. The Saints have lost four straight games at home, but the last time Atlanta came to the Superdome with New Orleans on a four-game home losing streak, the Saints won in 2007. With Atlanta’s pass rush dormant, New Orleans QB Drew Brees should have the time to find his targets in the passing game. The Saints must stop Ryan from going off indoors again, and while Atlanta WR Julio Jones is questionable with a hip injury, the Saints are on short rest due to playing Monday night.
New England at New York Jets: The Patriots have a chance to clinch a first-round bye for the fifth straight season, and all they have to do is beat the lowly Jets. I know Denver TE Julius Thomas thought scoring on the Jets was so easy, but the Patriots know better than to underestimate a Jets team that came within a blocked field goal from upsetting them in October. In fact, the last time the New England played at MetLife Stadium, New England DT Chris Jones was the goat instead of the hero, getting called for an obscure penalty that allowed the Jets to win in overtime. The October Thursday night game saw the Jets hold on to the football for 40:54, with no turnovers. New England CB Darrelle Revis returns to MetLife again for what is expected to be New York head coach Rex Ryan’s final home game; I think the Jets win the turnover battle and pull another upset at home, as you’re not over Biebergate until you beat the Jets at their place.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh: The last time the Chiefs won in Pittsburgh was 1986, when they were outgained 515 yards to 171 yards but scored TDs off of a fumble, kickoff, and blocked punt. See, even back then, Kansas City wasn’t finding WRs for TDs! 4 The Kansas City WR corps has yet to hit paydirt, though Pittsburgh’s pass defense has made a lot of players look great. The great matchup in this game will be against Pittsburgh WR Antonio Brown and Kansas City’s pass defense, the only unit in the league not to allow 275 passing yards at all this season. The mismatch, though, will be Pittsburgh RB Le’Veon Bell against a Kansas City run defense allowing 4.9 yards per rush.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay: You know what was a good battle? Former Green Bay QB Brett Favre against NFC Central division rival Tampa Bay and DT Warren Sapp. Some interesting things to watch here, as Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is trying to bounce back from his worst start ever in a place he has yet to win in. Rodgers is 0-2 at Raymond James Stadium, throwing three INTs in both starts. Rodgers does get to face former Chicago head coach Lovie Smith and his shaky defense; Rodgers went 9-2 as a starter against Smith in Chicago, and Smith’s Buccaneers don’t have the pass rushers 5 or a consistent running game to pull off the upset.
New York Giants at Saint Louis: As previously mentioned, the Giants and Rams aren’t playing for the playoffs here. But it’s cool to see former Jacksonville and current New York head coach Tom Coughlin go up against former Houston/Tennessee and current Saint Louis head coach Jeff Fisher go up against each other one more time. New York can rush the passer, and Saint Louis’ pass offense is best used sparingly, so expect rookie RB Tre Mason to take on a featured role against New York’s league-worst run defense. On the other side of the ball, Saint Louis gets to blow up a much-maligned New York offensive line, while the Rams have ten days off. Saint Louis just needs to make sure New York rookie WR Odell Beckham doesn’t continue to buttress his Offensive Rookie of the Year candidacy.
Indianapolis at Dallas: The Colts need the Patriots and Broncos to collapse in order for them to slide in with a chance at a first-round bye. Otherwise, they don’t have much to play for with their division already locked up. As a result, I don’t expect Indianapolis WRs T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne to play, along with CB Vontae Davis. I do expect Dallas workhorse RB DeMarco Murray to suit up for Dallas’ final home game, despite a broken hand, and for WR Dez Bryant to take advantage of Indianapolis’ secondary. Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck has nine turnovers over the last five games and 20 on the season, second only to benched QB Jay Cutler.
Buffalo at Oakland: The last time Buffalo won in Oakland was 1966, in the AFL. The Bills are coming off a big home win and have to travel to the West Coast; the watch for a letdown is on. Buffalo may get RB C.J. Spiller back, but it’s not like the Bills knew what they were doing with him when he was healthy, and Oakland is actually second in the league in stuffs. 6 Buffalo QB Kyle Orton has also lost his last four games against the Raiders. Oakland needs a big game from RB Latavius Murray, as that will go a long way towards taking pressure off of rookie QB Derek Carr, whose rookie season is shaping up closer to Sam Bradford’s. Of course, Carr is constantly compared to his brother David, who would have been avalanched by Buffalo’s league-best pass rush; Carr and Oakland’s offensive line has done a solid job of avoiding sacks this season.
Seattle at Arizona: This is the Game of the Week, but don’t expect many points in this one. The Seahawks held Arizona to a lone field goal in Seattle last month, and now the Legion of Boom gets to face Arizona QB Ryan Lindley. The Seahawks haven’t allowed a team to gain 275 passing yards in ten straight games, and Lindley’s next TD pass would be his first. Lindley has the NFL record for most career passes without a TD, and he’s “supported” by a run offense that averages 3.3 yards per rush, dead last in the NFL. Seattle is going to struggle to move the ball at University of Phoenix Stadium, especially against a rested Arizona defense, but they may only need a few scores to take over first place in the NFC West.
Denver at Cincinnati: Fascinating matchup to end the Monday Night Football schedule, as Denver QB Peyton Manning takes his streak of merely adequate games into Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals have faced 525 passes this season, the fourth-most in the NFL, and have allowed a league-low 14 TD passes. Manning has never had four straight games of under 250 passing yards, but Denver would be best served by running the ball against Cincinnati’s thin front seven. Denver will be looking at replacements at LB to face powerful Cincinnati rookie RB Jeremy Hill, who has a rookie-high three 100-yard rushing games this season. Hill needs to have a great game, because Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has repeatedly wilted in primetime games, going 2-6 in his career under the lights.
Seattle QB Russell Wilson’s first career start was a loss in Arizona, and he is 2-2 against the Cardinals. The Seahawks can take the lead in the NFC West by sweeping the season series Sunday night. (PC: AP/Paul Connors)