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Jan 24 2019

Reviewing NFL Divisional and Championship: Overtime Edition

I am back after a one-week hiatus. The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles gave up the belt in New Orleans after failing to score in the final three quarters of the game against the New Orleans Saints. Tough way to end the Nick Foles era, but he’ll be back in a few years.

It was great to see the Kansas City Chiefs finally beat the Indianapolis Colts in the playoffs. And they didn’t even need QB Patrick Mahomes to throw a TD pass to win! The Colts failed to convert a third down all game (0-for-9), while four Chiefs ran for a touchdown. Kansas City held the ball almost twice as long as the Colts, setting up their opportunity to host the AFC Championship.

The New England Patriots earned their eighth straight trip to the AFC Championship by similarly dominating their opponent via the run game and time of possession. I mentioned that the more consistent run offense would control this matchup, and that’s what happened at Gillette Stadium, as the Chargers ran for 19 yards and a touchdown while New England rookie RB Sony Michel had a long run of 40 yards and three touchdowns.

The Los Angeles Rams got to the NFC Championship on the strength of their run game, as both RB Todd Gurley (115 rush yards, one touchdown) and RB C.J. Anderson (123 rush yards, two touchdowns) outproduced Dallas RB Ezekiel Elliott (47 rush yards, one touchdown). The Rams “only” held the ball for 36:11 – that was the lowest clock rate of all the four divisional winners.

Winning units:

KC run offense (RB Damien Williams)
LA run offense (RB C.J. Anderson)
NE run offense (RB Sony Michel)
NO pass defense (CB Marshon Lattimore)

All of which set up the first NFL Championship Sunday that featured two overtime games – a disastrous day for the NFL, especially in Louisiana.

To be clear, the New Orleans Saints blew it, even after benefitting from multiple missed calls. New Orleans QB Drew Brees threw the INT in overtime to set up Los Angeles’ game-winning drive. And the Rams outproduced the Saints on the ground 77 to 48. It is unfortunate to see arrogant Los Angeles sports fans go from missing when this trash team came from Missouri in 2016 to getting extra defensive about a no-call that leads to a Super Bowl win, but that’s where we’re at now.

And we’re there because the New England Patriots held on and beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. The Chiefs didn’t score in the first half at home, but participated in four fourth quarter lead changes before Kansas City K Harrison Butker forced overtime with a 39-yard field goal. But the Kansas City defense failed to stop the run, allowing 113 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Michel and allowing the game-winning touchdown to RB Rex Burkhead in overtime.

Winning units:

LA run offense (RB Todd Gurley)
NE run offense (RB Sony Michel)

I’ll get around to previewing the Super Bowl that the Rams will win sometime next week. According to Matt McEwan of Sports Betting Dime, the New England Patriots are currently favored to win Super Bowl 53 in spite of the popular belief that the LA Rams have the more talented roster. The Patriots average odds to win the game are around 10/13, with the Rams listed at 11/10. The only part of the Super Bowl I’m looking forward to is Tony Romo.

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