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Jan 10 2019

Reviewing NFL Wild Card: Defending Champs Survive

No team reached 25 points on Wild Card weekend this season, the first time that happened since the 2012 postseason.

The Philadelphia Eagles got a game-winning drive from QB Nick Foles, and then DT Treyvon Hester preserved a 16-15 win by blocking Chicago Bears K Cody Parkey’s 43-yard field goal attempt. It must be noted that Philadelphia K Jake Elliott began the scoring Sunday night with a 43-yard field goal of his own.

The Houston Texans won the AFC South, but they were the first of the AFC division champions to lose at home. The Indianapolis Colts defense controlled the line of scrimmage, holding Houston’s RBs to 29 rushing yards on eight attempts, while Houston QB Deshaun Watson was sacked three times.

The Seattle Seahawks tried to stick with the run on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. But their RBs gained only 59 rushing yards on 21 attempts. Seattle ran right out of time. The Cowboys were the only home team to win last week.

The Baltimore Ravens had seven net pass yards entering the fourth quarter, and the Los Angeles Chargers made a fourth quarter field goal to take a 23-3 lead. The two garbage time TD passes caught by Baltimore WR Michael Crabtree made the final score better, but it did not change the fact that the pass defense of the Chargers dominated on the road.

Winning units:

IND run defense (CB Kenny Moore II)
DAL run defense (DE Demarcus Lawrence)
LAC pass defense (SS Adrian Phillips)
PHI special teams (K Jake Elliott)

Looking ahead to 2018 Divisional

Colts at Kansas City: Yeah, there’s no way I am trusting the Kansas City Chiefs in this spot. The Colts as a franchise are 4-0 in the postseason against the Chiefs, with the last of those wins taking place in the 2013 playoffs in Indianapolis after Kansas City took a 38-10 lead. The Colts also won their last two meetings in Arrowhead Stadium, though those games were in 2012 and 2013. I expect the Colts to be able to handle the noise at Arrowhead Stadium and allow QB Andrew Luck to pick apart a Kansas City defense that is sack or bust.

Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams: The good news from this game is that one of these teams will lose. The key matchup will be Dallas’ run defense against a strong Los Angeles run game. We saw how that went for the Seahawks; Los Angeles Rams RB Todd Gurley’s condition will be under the microscope after finishing the regular season on the sidelines. On the other side of the ball, what happens first: QB Dak Prescott lighting up the Los Angeles secondary, or Prescott failing to escape the pass rush?

Chargers at New England: The Chargers haven’t won in New England since 2005, and QB Philip Rivers has never beat the Patriots when New England started QB Tom Brady. In the 2017 meeting, the Chargers struggled on special teams and failed to move the ball effectively in a 21-13 Patriots win. This game will come down to which run offense can stay consistent.

Eagles at New Orleans: This is the one Divisional game that is a regular season rematch, and even that is not as foreshadowing due to Philadelphia QB Nick Foles replacing a now-injured Carson Wentz. New Orleans WR Tre’Quan Smith ate up the Eagles for 157 yards in the Week 11 blowout; Smith only had 56 yards in the last five games of the season combined. Philadelphia gets another chance on defense, but expect the Saints to feature the run more in a game that should be closer.

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