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Dec 27 2019

Reviewing NFL Week 16, including Fantasy Football and the Sleeper Packers

I have not had much time to discuss the Green Bay Packers in this space. That is probably because they just haven’t been that special this season. Two of their three losses came in primetime spots – at home on a Thursday against the Philadelphia Eagles, and on the road on a Sunday night against the San Francisco 49ers. The Week 12 loss at San Francisco was especially jarring, as the Packers came off a bye week just to allow a season-high 37 points and score a season-low 8 points while getting dominated by TE George Kittle.

Sure, the Packers also won primetime games in Week 1 (at Chicago), Week 6 (vs Lions), and Week 8 (at Kansas City). But one of the main takeaways from the Bears game was how concerning the offense was. The win over the Lions was by the slimmest of margins and featured one of the many adventures of officiating this season. And Kansas City started Matt Moore at quarterback. Those weren’t reasons to slight the Packers. But I had better things to do following those games than to get excited about Green Bay.

The performance of OLB Za’Darius Smith and the Green Bay Packers defense on the road against the Minnesota Vikings was an impressive way to end the 2019 edition of Monday Night Football.

The 2019 season finale of Monday Night Football was looking like more of the same for the Packers in Minnesota. Despite outgaining the Vikings 221-68, the Packers trailed 10-9 due to three turnovers and a failure to score touchdowns despite two red zone trips.

Everything changed when Green Bay CB Kevin King intercepted Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins on a 1st and 10 deep ball mid-3rd quarter. Green Bay went on an 8-play, 53-yard drive that ended with RB Aaron Jones rushing for a 12-yard TD and a two-point conversion pass to WR Geronimo Allison. That was the last lead change of the game, and Green Bay’s defense went on to shut out Cousins and the Minnesota offense.

The most impressive performance of the night belonged to Green Bay OLB Za’Dairius Smith, who compiled 3.5 sacks, 5 QB hits, and 5 TFL. Two of those tackles for loss were on Minnesota RB Mike Boone, who a lot of you all were trusting to help secure a fantasy football championship. Fortunately for Regan’s fantasy football team that I helped draft for before the start of the season, Boone did nothing after halftime.

The Packers are 12-3, and a win over the Detroit Lions in Week 17 will clinch a first round bye. Green Bay still has a chance to clinch homefield advantage throughout the postseason. Given how strong teams such as San Francisco, Seattle, and New Orleans have been throughout this season, it would be an incredible feat for the Packers to be right at the top of things in the NFC. This is Green Bay’s best defense since the 2010 Super Bowl season, and they got a league-leading 19 total touchdowns from Jones to complement what was a solid but relatively unspectacular season from Pro Bowl QB Aaron Rodgers in his first season with head coach Matt LaFleur. 

If nothing else, the Packers have done well to recover from wasting the previous two seasons with Rodgers and put together a complete team – one that might get Rodgers back to the Super Bowl if Week 17 goes their way and sets up a favorable path through Lambeau Field.

TEAMS OF THE WEEK:

NE, BAL, HOU, KC
PHI, GB, NO, SF

TOP PERFORMERS:

HOU pass rush (CB Bradley Roby)
NE run defense (DE Lawrence Guy)
SF special teams (K Robbie Gould)
ATL run defense (DT Grady Jarrett)
BAL pass offense (TE Mark Andrews)
IND run offense (RB Marlon Mack)
MIA run offense (RB Myles Gaskin)
NYJ pass rush (ILB Nevelle Hewitt)
NO offensive line (QB Drew Brees)
NYG pass offense (RB Saquon Barkley)
DEN run offense (RB Phillip Lindsay)
OAK pass defense (CB Nevin Lawson)
PHI run defense (DE Josh Sweat)
ARI run offense (RB Kenyan Drake)
KC pass offense (TE Travis Kelce)
GB run defense (OLB Za’Darius Smith)

Looking ahead to Week 17

Saints at Carolina: The Saints must win in Carolina to have any chance at the top seed in the conference. The Panthers will be working overtime to get RB Christian McCaffrey 1,000 receiving yards and a chance at breaking Chris Johnson’s 2009 record for most scrimmage yards in a season.

Steelers at Baltimore: The Ravens have locked up homefield advantage throughout the regular season and will rest QB Lamar Jackson and RB Mark Ingram II. The Steelers have to win with QB Devlin Hodges to improve their chances at securing a playoff berth. Expect a low-scoring affair at The Bank.

Raiders at Denver: The Raiders are playing their final game before moving to Las Vegas, unless they beat the Broncos, the Steelers lose, the Titans lose, the Colts win in Jacksonville, and if one of the Bears, Lions, Chargers and Patriots does not lose. Seems unlikely.

Titans at Houston: The Titans just lost a home game to the Texans two weeks ago, and the Titans lost the last game of the 2018 regular season to be the last team out of the playoff race. This is the most important AFC game. If the Titans win, then they are in – and nothing else matters with the Steelers and Raiders.

49ers at Seattle: The loser of this game will have to play at the winner of the NFC Least (RE: Dallas) to start the playoffs. The 49ers lost at home to the Seahawks in overtime, but they are much healthier than the Seahawks this time around. Seattle is so banged up that they brought back RB Marshawn Lynch to replace injured RB Chris Carson. The Seattle run game was pivotal in Week 10 at San Francisco, so #Game256 will be determined by how well Lynch (as well as RB Travis Homer and another former Seattle retread in Robert Turbin) can produce on the ground.

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