Sunday is the 267th NFL game this season – not counting the Pro Bowl, of course. Super Bowl LIII is the first Super Bowl in Atlanta in 19 years, but first ever at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which opened in 2017. It will be a rematch of Super Bowl XXXVI.
The AFC Champion: With a regular season record of 11-5, 41-28 win in the Divisional round against the Los Angeles Chargers, and a 37-31 overtime win against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship … winner of ten straight AFC East division titles and going for their sixth Super Bowl win in 18 years … the New England Patriots.
The NFC Champion: With a regular season of 13-3, a 30-22 win in the Divisional round against the Dallas Cowboys, and a 26-23 overtime in against the New Orleans Saints to win the NFC Championship … making their fourth Super Bowl appearance but second as a Southern California team … the Los Angeles Rams.
Both the Patriots and Rams played and defeated the Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, and Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams had road games against the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears this season. The Patriots lost in Detroit and won in Chicago, while the Rams beat the Lions but lost to the Bears.
The last time the Patriots and Rams faced off against each other was in the 2016 season, a 26-10 Patriots win at Gillette Stadium in Week 13. RB LeGarrette Blount ran for a 43-yard TD in the first quarter, and New England never looked back, outgaining the Rams 402 to 162. The Patriots have beaten the Rams five straight times, a streak that began 17 years ago when the Patriots beat the Rams 20-17 to win their first Super Bowl. The last time the Rams beat the Patriots was in November 2001, a 24-17 win. The last time the Los Angeles Rams beat the Patriots was in September 1992, a 14-0 win at Anaheim Stadium.
The 2018 First Team AP All-Pros that will play in the Super Bowl include Los Angeles Rams RB Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams DE Aaron Donald, and New England Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore. The New England Patriots Pro Bowlers included QB Tom Brady and Gilmore, while the Rams Pro Bowlers were QB Jared Goff, Gurley, Donald and special teams ILB Cory Littleton.
PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE vs RAMS PASS DEFENSE
It would be nice if Brady had WR Josh Gordon. But it is more important that he has WR Julian Edelman, TE Rob Gronkowski, and RB James White. The Rams do not have special coverage players in the middle of the field – SS John Johnson has been very good, while ILBs Littleton and Mark Barron are flexible enough to stay with receiving backs. CB Nickell Robey-Coleman is going to have a target on him all game. Former Patriots CB Aqib Talib and CB Marcus Peters had subpar seasons, but they should not have much trouble with WRs Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan. This comes down to Brady getting the ball out quick and short consistently.
ADVANTAGE: Patriots.
PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE vs RAMS RUN DEFENSE
New England has gotten outstanding production from first round rookie RB Sony Michel this postseason. Michel averaged 4.5 yards per rush in the regular season, and he had back-to-back 100-yard rushing games in the AFC playoffs. White also averaged 4.5 yards per rush, a career-high, while scoring five rush TD; White only had two rush TD in his first four seasons combined. The Patriots also have RB Rex Burkhead (two rush TD in AFC Championship) and FB James Develin (four rush TD this season). The Rams have the Defensive Player of the Year in DE Aaron Donald, and Los Angeles shut down strong run games against the Cowboys and Saints. But they allowed 5.1 yards per rush during the regular season despite the presence of Donald, DE Ndamukong Suh, and NT Michael Brockers.
ADVANTAGE: Patriots.
PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE LINE vs RAMS PASS RUSH
The Patriots did not allow a sack in back-to-back playoff games despite going up against pass rushers such as DEs Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa and OLB Dee Ford and DE Chris Jones. New England starts LT Trent Brown, LG Joe Thuney, C David Andrews, RG Shaq Mason, and RT Marcus Cannon. Brady does an outstanding job of protecting his body and the ball. Donald is the only impactful Rams pass rusher, so expect Los Angeles to blitz and pray for a lollipop or two.
ADVANTAGE: Patriots.
PATRIOTS PASS RUSH vs RAMS OFFENSIVE LINE
The Los Angeles Rams won the award for offensive line of the year, and they start LT Andrew Whitworth, LG Rodger Saffold, C John Sullivan, RG Austin Blythe, and RT Rob Havenstein. New England’s biggest weakness is their pass rush, though they had a strong performance in Kansas City (four sacks, nine QB hits). OLB Kyle Van Noy had two sacks in the AFC Championship and is going to be a factor from behind the defensive line, while New England DE Trey Flowers is the best rusher the Patriots have overall. Goff benefits tremendously from optimum protection, and he will have time in this game.
ADVANTAGE: Rams.
PATRIOTS RUN DEFENSE vs RAMS RUN OFFENSE
It was a strange end to the season for Gurley, starting with the Week 14 loss at Chicago that saw him get only 14 touches and only 2.6 yards per rush. Gurley only got 12 rushes the following week in a home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, then got three weeks off. Gurley strafed the Cowboys for 115 yards, but then got only five touches in the NFC Championship Game. All of that is tempered somewhat by the play of RB C.J. Anderson, who was discarded by three teams in 2018 before landing in Los Angeles and finishing the regular season with 299 rushing yards for the Rams. Anderson was used more than Gurley in both playoff games as well, though he was significantly less effective in the NFC Championship. Rookie RB John Kelly did not touch the ball in the playoffs. The Patriots were awful against the run on a per play basis, allowing 4.9 yards per rush. But only the Bears allowed fewer rush TD. Gurley should be fresh enough, and Van Noy and OLB Dont’a Hightower will not be an impediment to a big day.
ADVANTAGE: Rams.
PATRIOTS PASS DEFENSE vs RAMS PASS OFFENSE
Goff only had one truly dreadful game this season, and that was his visit to Chicago that saw him finish without a TD pass and four INTs. The Patriots have better cornerbacks than Chicago, especially Gilmore. But Goff should have options due to the speed of former Patriots WR Brandin Cooks and Gurley. WR Robert Woods hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving game since October, and he never had a 100-yard receiving game against the Patriots while he was in Buffalo. Los Angeles always has one of TE Gerald Everett or Tyler Higbee on the field, but they are the last options in the passing game. WR Cooper Kupp tore his ACL in November, but WR Josh Reynolds has been adequate. The Patriots have a veteran-laden secondary with safeties Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty, and Duron Harmon along with CBs Jason McCourty and Gilmore. Harmon is the best at coming down with lollipops. Former undrafted free agents Jonathan Jones and 6’1″ rookie J.C. Jackson had three INTs each this season. Goff targeting Gurley, Reynolds, and Cook will be the move for Los Angeles.
ADVANTAGE: Rams.
PATRIOTS SPECIAL TEAMS vs RAMS SPECIAL TEAMS
Both teams have been really good at emphasizing the importance of special teams. It starts with the kickers, where New England K Stephen Gostkowski has made all twelve kicks in the postseason after missing six kicks in the regular season. Gostkowski wasn’t special this season, but he only had one truly rough game (in Miami, where he missed a PAT and a field goal in a one-point loss). Rams K Greg Zuerlein has a minor plant foot injury, but he made clutch field goals in the NFC Championship. New England P Ryan Allen is solid and has had only one of his 409 career punts returned for a TD. This was the first season in four years that Los Angeles P Johnny Hekker wasn’t the NFC Pro Bowl selection, but he has had only one of his 542 career punts returned for a TD. Hekker has also completed 11 passes in his seven-year career, and the Rams aren’t shy about being tricky. The Patriots ask Edelman to handle punts securely, but are fine with WR Cordarrelle Patterson returning kickoffs. The Rams don’t have a major return threat, but they do have a Pro Bowl cover player in Littleton. I’d be remiss if I were to not mention New England special teams WR Matthew Slater, whose father Jackie was a Hall of Fame Rams lineman.
ADVANTAGE: Rams.
PATRIOTS COACHING vs RAMS COACHING
New England head coach Bill Belichick is going for his sixth Super Bowl win as a head coach – and he won two as a defensive coordinator. As you all know, Sean McVay just turned 33 years old. McVay has done an outstanding job at turning Jeff Fisher into a punchline. It is worth mentioning that McVay’s last coaching position was as Washington’s offensive coordinator, and his 2015 offense went to New England and was held to 250 yards and 10 points with Kirk Cousins at QB. McVay’s defensive coordinator is Wade Phillips, while Belichick’s offensive coordinator is former Indianapolis head coach Josh McDaniels. When Phillips last saw the Patriots as Denver’s defensive coordinator, the Broncos held New England to 313 yards and 16 points in a losing effort; New England had zero turnovers in that 2016 game and ran the ball 39 times, with an additional 12 targets going to backs. Two coaches are expected to be head coaches following this game – New England LB coach Brian Flores is set to take over the Dolphins, while Los Angeles QB coach Zac Taylor is set to take over the Cincinnati Bengals. Interestingly enough, Los Angeles passing game coordinator Shane Waldron was in New England from 2002-2004 and 2008-2009.
ADVANTAGE: Patriots.
INTANGIBLES
Ty Law is a Hall of Famer, so the Patriots get those good vibes. Other than that, this Super Bowl can burn. The Drake video was meant to show bad vibes for the Patriots, as shown here:
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13702801/drake.jpg)
But then Drake had to go and mess that up.
I don’t trust the Patriots at all. My thoughts are with the fans of Saint Louis and the absentee Los Angeles Rams fans from 2016.
Tickets for Colts vs. Rams were $6 and still nobody showed up. pic.twitter.com/RND1DmDOof
— Jordan Heck (@JordanHeckFF) September 10, 2017
ADVANTAGE: Rams.
BOTTOM LINE
Todd Gurley for MVP.
PREDICTION: Rams 29, Patriots 25.