Let’s. Go.
Super Bowl XLIX … 49 for the Roman-challenged. Kicking off from the University of Phoenix Stadium (conveniently located in Glendale, AZ), it’s another battle between the top seeds of both conferences.
The challenger: With a regular season record of 12-4, a comeback 35-31 win in the Divisional round against the Baltimore Ravens, and a blowout 45-7 win against the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship … three-time Super Bowl winner and the 2014 AFC East Champions … the New England Patriots.
And the defending champion: With a regular season record of 12-4, a 31-17 win in the Divisional round against the Carolina Panthers, and a comeback 28-22 win against the Green Bay Packers in overtime to win the NFC Championship … winner of Super Bowl XLVIII and 2014 NFC West Champions … the Seattle Seahawks.
The 2014 NFL Hypothesis Report had the Patriots going 12-4, but losing in the Divisional round. They made it to their fourth straight AFC Championship and won the AFC title for the sixth time since the turn of the century. The Hypothesis Report had the Seahawks going 15-1 and beating the Packers in the NFC title game, but losing to the Broncos in the Super Bowl. Well, the Seahawks won’t be losing to the Broncos in the Super Bowl…
The Patriots and Seahawks used to be in the AFC together before the 2002 realignment, but the two teams never faced off in the playoffs. The most interesting point in the two teams’ AFC history was the 1993 NFL Draft. New England and Seattle both went 2-14 in 1992, and New England’s loss to the Seahawks that season gave the Patriots the top pick in the draft. The Patriots picked QB Drew Bledsoe out of Washington State. The Seahawks would use the second pick in the 1993 NFL Draft to select Notre Dame QB Rick Mirer. Bledsoe would make three Pro Bowls with the Patriots and help the Patriots win two AFC titles in nine seasons. Mirer went 20-31 in four seasons in Seattle, throwing 41 TD passes and 56 INTs – but at least the Seahawks got a first-round pick out of the Chicago Bears to trade him away.
In 1993, QBs went 1-2 in the NFL Draft: the New England Patriots picked Drew Bledsoe, while the Seattle Seahawks selected Rick Mirer. It would be the last time to date that either team selected a QB in the first round. (PC: Getty)
Flash forward to now. The Patriots would hire former Cleveland Browns head coach Bill Belichick in 2000, the same year that the team would draft Michigan QB Tom Brady in the sixth round of the NFL Draft. Brady would eventually replace Bledsoe in the starting lineup and become one of the greatest passers in league history. Brady will be starting his sixth Super Bowl, most of any QB, and he and Belichick will look to win their fourth, something that has only been done by one other coach-QB tandem, Pittsburgh Steelers Hall-of-Fame QB Terry Bradshaw and head coach Chuck Noll.
Belichick would replace Pete Carroll as New England’s head coach. The Seahawks hired the former USC head coach after Jim Mora went 5-11 in 2009, his only season after being Mike Holmgren’s hand-picked successor. Carroll, the former head coach of the New York Jets (1994) and Patriots (1997-1999), has helped give the Seahawks an identity on defense with unorthodox fronts, aggressive cornerbacks, and special safeties. The Seahawks went only 15-19 in Carroll’s first two seasons, including playoffs. But since drafting QB Russell Wilson in the third round of the 2011 Draft, the Seahawks have gone 42-13, including playoffs.
The Patriots and Seahawks are 8-8 all-time against each other. The last time the two teams faced off was in October 2012, at CenturyLink Field. The Patriots had a 23-10 fourth quarter lead, but Wilson threw a go-ahead TD pass with 1:27 left. Brady threw for 395 yards and two TDs, but he threw 58 total passes and two INTs, and he was unable to get the Patriots into field goal range in 74 seconds. The Seahawks won 24-23, and the Legion of Boom took center stage.
Both teams have outstanding figures besides the QBs and coaches. Seattle’s secondary had two first-team All-Pros in CB Richard Sherman and FS Earl Thomas, in addition to Pro Bowl SS Kam Chancellor and 2015 free agent CB Byron Maxwell. The Patriots signed the top free agent CB in former Jet and 2013 Tampa Bay Buccaneer Darrelle Revis, who returned to first team All-Pro status for the first time in three seasons. The Seahawks had a third first team All-Pro in ILB Bobby Wagner. New England had one first team All-Pro on offense in TE Rob Gronkowski, who returned from a torn ACL to lead all TEs in receiving yards. And then there’s Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch, aka Beast Mode.
Both teams lost to the Kansas City Chiefs this season. When the Patriots lost 41-14 in Kansas City in Week 4, it prompted widespread panic, some of which I addressed here; a lot more people appreciate Brady after the Patriots went on to win 12 of their last 14 games. The Seahawks’ last loss of the season came Week 11 in Kansas City by a score of 24-20. Seattle has ripped off eight straight wins since then, and for the second straight season, Seattle’s last road game before the Super Bowl came at the Super Bowl host site, a 35-6 blowout win over the Cardinals in Week 16.
Last time the Patriots were in the Super Bowl was three years ago, where they lost 21-17 to the New York Giants in Indianapolis. The Seahawks beat the Broncos in last year’s Super Bowl 43-8, and are looking to become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since the Patriots did it ten years ago.
PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE vs. SEAHAWKS PASS DEFENSE
This may be the matchup of the game. Brady is a Pro Bowl QB as well as a two-time MVP in each the regular season as well as the Super Bowl. He’s one of the very best passers of all time when it comes to TD:INT ratio; only 2014 MVP Aaron Rodgers has a better career rate. Brady should be challenged by the Legion of Boom to throw it deep, and that’s not something Brady does very well; Brady only completed 12 of 49 passes that traveled at least 21 yards in the air – less than 25 percent. The Patriots feature WRs Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell, and it will be interesting to see who lines up to the right of the formation to challenge Sherman. A lot of times it will be Gronkowski out there, the team’s leader in yards after the catch. When the Patriots played in Seattle two years ago, Gronkowski had 61 yards on six catches. Gronkowski figures to see plenty of Chancellor, the biggest safety in the league. Thomas is one of the smallest safeties in the league, but his uncanny range is what makes him great. Thomas and Sherman are both playing with upper body injuries, and they’ll have to be sharp against a Patriots team that uses more 12 personnel lineups than any other team in the league. Of course, when the Seahawks saw the Patriots in 2012, the other TE was Pro Bowler Aaron Hernandez. New England’s other TEs in the Super Bowl are blocker Michael Hoomanawanui and 220-pounder Tim Wright. Brady’s receiving back is RB Shane Vereen, who finished fifth in receiving yards among RBs this season. Only two teams allowed fewer yards after the catch than the Seahawks, and Brady averaged less than seven yards a pass the last time he faced Seattle. ADVANTAGE: Draw/Seahawks.
PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE vs. SEAHAWKS RUN DEFENSE
Perhaps the biggest improvement in Seattle’s defense this year has come against the run. Seattle wasn’t bad against the run last season, giving up 3.9 yards per rush and 101.6 yards rushing per game in 2013. The Seahawks were nails against the run this season, giving up 20 fewer yards per game and allowing 3.4 yards per rush, the lowest mark in franchise history. Wagner gets a lot of credit for what he was able to do when he was in the lineup, and newly-extended OLB K.J. Wright wound up leading the team in tackles. 2012 first-round OLB Bruce Irvin also had a career-high for tackles for loss. The Patriots aren’t slouches running the football – just ask the Colts. But they are a matchup-based team. RB LeGarrette Blount had 148 rushing yards and three TDs in the AFC Championship, but he had 146 total rushing yards and one TD in New England’s previous five games. Blount also doesn’t catch the football, so his role may be dependent on early success. New England’s big back in 2012 was Stevan Ridley, and he was thoroughly unsuccessful in Seattle that day (34 yards on 16 carries, a season-low 2.1 yards per rush). The Patriots didn’t use a FB in 2012, but they will likely trot blocking back James Develin out there for about 10-15 snaps. Blount is going to have to get going early, and expect the Patriots to be patient. Their last two Super Bowl losses were due in part to abandoning the run game too early. ADVANTAGE: Seahawks.
PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE LINE vs. SEAHAWKS PASS RUSH
This will be the referee’s matchup of the game – shout out to Bill Vinovich. The Patriots have taken advantage of ineligible receiver alignments to confuse their AFC postseason opponents, even getting a TD reception from LT Nate Solder. Solder, who spent his rookie season as a swing tackle and third TE, is actually the only player on New England’s offensive roster who was a former first round pick. The Seahawks have many good pass rushers, including DEs Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, but they aren’t as potent there as they were last year. In 2013, the Seahawks were in the top 25 percent in sacks while leading the league in INTs. This season, Seattle finished 20th in the NFL in sacks while finishing 18th in the NFL in INTs. New England is getting a boost, as rookie C Bryan Stork should be back to start after missing the AFC Championship. New England was one of eight teams to allow fewer than 30 sacks during the regular season, and New England tied Green Bay with 13 turnovers, fewest in the NFL. The Seahawks start DTs Kevin Williams and Tony McDaniel, who are both better at stopping the run. This would be different if New England guards Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly had to deal with Seattle DT Jordan Hill, but Seattle’s best interior pass rusher is on injured reserve. Look for New England RT Sebastian Vollmer to go up against Irvin at times. Brady is one of the very best at protecting the football and himself. ADVANTAGE: Patriots.
PATRIOTS PASS RUSH vs. SEAHAWKS OFFENSIVE LINE
Since Wilson entered the league in 2012, only five passers have a better TD-INT ratio: Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Brady, Alex Smith, and Ben Roethlisberger. On the flipside, Seattle’s offensive line has allowed Wilson to be sacked more times over the last three seasons than every QB except for Miami’s Ryan Tannehill. 15 of New England’s 40 sacks came from the LBs, led by Dont’a Hightower’s six. Seattle also had a rookie starter miss the Championship game, as RT Justin Britt is set to return. But Britt will be challenged by DE Rob Ninkovich. On the other side, 2010 first round LT Russell Okung will have to deal with physical RE Chandler Jones, but Ninkovich is the team’s best pass rusher. The Patriots are just as tricky on defense as they can be on offense. Seattle C Max Unger missed ten games this season, but he is good to go against New England DT Vince Wilfork. Unger is giving up plenty of size in that matchup, but Wilfork isn’t much of a pass rusher; neither are fellow DTs Sealver Siliga, Chris Jones, and former Seahawk Alan Branch. The Seahawks are light at RG with J.R. Sweezy, but LG James Carpenter has plenty of size at 6’5″, 320. Penalties are usually a problem; no team had more false starts in 2014 than the Seahawks. ADVANTAGE: Patriots.
PATRIOTS RUN DEFENSE vs. SEAHAWKS RUN OFFENSE
Wilfork called Lynch the best RB the Patriots have faced all season. Wilfork is right from a numbers standpoint – Lynch finished fourth in the NFL in rushing yards in 2014 behind Dallas RB DeMarco Murray, Pittsburgh RB LeVeon Bell, and Philadelphia RB LeSean McCoy, neither of whom New England faced this season. The Patriots did see the RB who finished fifth in the NFL in rushing, Baltimore’s Justin Forsett, and Forsett put up 124 rushing yards on New England. Lynch, a former Buffalo Bills first round pick, hasn’t had great success against the Patriots in the past, rushing for only 265 yards and one TD on 70 carries, a clip of only 3.8 yards per rush. Lynch averaged 4.7 yards per rush this season, and no player has more rushing TDs over the last four seasons. Ever since the season-ending injury of ILB Jerod Mayo, New England has rolled with mostly two LBs, Hightower and Jamie Collins. Hightower has all of the bulk at 270 pounds, while Collins is a speedy 250-pounder who led the Patriots in stuffs with six. The only time backup RBs Robert Turbin and Christine Michael see the ball is when Lynch needs a breather, as no other RB has even scored a TD over the last two seasons for the Seahawks. Seattle runs behind OL coach Tom Cable’s zone-blocking scheme, and Wilson combined with Lynch to help lead the Seahawks in rushing. The only teams to win the Super Bowl after leading the NFL in rushing were the 1972 Dolphins and the 1985 Bears. Wilson also led all QBs in rushing this season and will attempt to become the second passer to win the Super Bowl after leading all QBs in rushing since Hall-of-Fame QB Steve Young did it 20 years ago. The Patriots were a top-ten defense against the run this season, but it will be a challenge to contain tackle-breaker Lynch AND fleet-footed playmaker Wilson. ADVANTAGE: Draw/Seahawks.
PATRIOTS PASS DEFENSE vs. SEAHAWKS PASS OFFENSE
When it comes down to it, Seattle’s passing game does the job. As a team, only the Dallas Cowboys dropped fewer passes this season than the Seahawks. The 2013 Seahawks became the lowest ranked team in passing yards to win a Super Bowl, and this year’s team will feature three undrafted WRs: Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, and Ricardo Lockette. Wilson gets dinged a lot for leaving the pocket and holding on to the football instead of going through third and fourth reads and forcing throws like Andrew Luck. Thing is, Wilson has the arm strength to make the tough throws on the outside and deep down the field, as well as enough touch and accuracy to string drives together and beat defenses from the pocket. New England knows all about Wilson’s ability, as he threw for 293 yards on only 27 throws and three TDs, including a deep bomb to Sidney Rice to beat the Patriots in 2012. Wilson had a career-high four INTs in the NFC Championship against the Packers, all of the INTs thrown in the direction of Kearse. But Wilson recovered to throw a walk-off deep ball to Kearse to send the Seahawks to the Super Bowl. The Patriots give up yards in the passing game, but they have a top-ten pass defense overall, as they were one of eight teams not to allow teams to complete more than 60 percent of passes. Revis is hard to beat in man coverage, while former Seahawks CB Brandon Browner is as big and physical as they come at the position. 2010 first round FS Devin McCourty is versatile and skilled, and the Patriots are deep at the position with CBs Kyle Arrington and Logan Ryan. SS Patrick Chung should matchup with speedy TE Luke Willson. Willson is a big play threat, but he isn’t a volume target. Lynch is a three-down back should be utilized in the passing game, though both Hightower and Collins are strong in coverage. Don’t expect the Patriots to sleep on the deep ball in this one, as they were the best defense in the league against passes thrown at least 21 yards in the air. ADVANTAGE: Draw/Patriots.
PATRIOTS SPECIAL TEAMS vs. SEAHAWKS SPECIAL TEAMS
The Patriots might be the tricky team for the most part, but the Seahawks pulled out all of the stops on special teams to win the NFC title. From a TD pass from P Jon Ryan to get Seattle on the board, to a successful onside kick to put Seattle in position to take the lead, Seattle’s special teams were a big factor in getting to the Super Bowl. But overall, the Patriots have been better on special teams. New England K Stephen Gostkowski was a Pro Bowler this season, leading the NFL with 35 made field goals. Gostkowski missed two FGs all season, while Seattle K Steven Hauschka missed six of his 37 attempts. The Seahawks’ kickoff coverage unit tied for the league lead in opponent starts inside the 20, while Gostkowski had 53 touchbacks, tied for fifth-best in the league. New England P Ryan Allen has the leg, while Ryan focuses on hangtime. Seahawks PR Bryan Walters isn’t much of a threat, but New England has one of the league’s best in Edelman, one of 11 players to score a punt return TD this season. The Seahawks had one of the best kickoff returners in the NFL in Percy Harvin, who essentially ended Super Bowl XLVIII with a return TD. But Harvin was traded to the Jets in October, while rookie Paul Richardson tore his ACL. ADVANTAGE: Patriots.
PATRIOTS COACHING vs. SEAHAWKS COACHING
This will be the third Super Bowl between a head coach and the man he replaced. Belichick replaced Pete Carroll in New England in 2000, and the replacement has lost the previous two of these matchups, as Weeb Ewbank’s Jets beat Don Shula’s Colts in Super Bowl III, while Jon Gruden’s Buccaneers beat Bill Callahan’s Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII. Carroll also beat Belichick in the last meeting in 2012, though Belichick does have one win against Carroll, way back in 1994. That’s when Belichick’s Browns beat Carroll’s Jets 27-7 behind rushing TDs from RBs Eric Metcalf, Earnest Byner, and Leroy Hoard. Both head coaches are former DB coaches, making this the 11th time in 12 years that at least one of the head coaches had a background in coaching DBs. This matchup also features a former head coach in New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels against a future head coach in Seattle defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. McDaniels, former Broncos head coach, will need to call things better than his last Super Bowl, the 17-14 loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII that saw New England throw three times as much as run. Quinn, the former defensive line coach, is expected to take the Atlanta Falcons vacant head coaching job, which would make him the first defensive coordinator to leave a Super Bowl team to take a head coaching position since Romeo Crennel went from New England to Cleveland in 2005. Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia was the safeties coach in Super Bowl XLVI, the linebackers coach in Super Bowl XLII, and a first-year offensive assistant when the Patriots last won the Super Bowl ten seasons ago. Seattle offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell is in his fourth season with the Seahawks and is from Arizona. Both teams finished in the top ten for points scored and allowed, but Seattle also finished in the top ten in yards gained and allowed. ADVANTAGE: Draw/Seahawks.
INTANGIBLES
This is going to be interesting. The Patriots are well built to handle the noise and distractions, especially when they had to defend themselves against the deflated balls situation. But I feel like they would have been better off not dealing with that. On the other side of the controversy scale, you have Lynch and the media. But the Seahawks aren’t sweating this either. The Seahawks have been “here” more recently than the Patriots as well: Here as in the Super Bowl, and winning it, and here as in the stadium in Glendale. Seattle is the first team in 12 years to play at a division rivals stadium in the Super Bowl, and as mentioned earlier, the Seahawks smashed the Cardinals when they were in Arizona for NBC’s Sunday Night Football in December. The Patriots have only played one other game at University of Phoenix Stadium – the Super Bowl XLII loss that dropped their record to 18-1 for the 2007 season. If the injuries to the Legion of Boom prove to be minor, and if Sherman can actually play in this game with the expected arrival of his child, than Seattle should feel very comfortable. ADVANTAGE: Draw/Seahawks.
BOTTOM LINE
I appreciate both of these teams, and for the first time in 30 years, the two top seeds in the playoffs will meet in the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons. I expect both teams to start slow, with a missed field goal somewhere in the first quarter. New England should get it turned up in the second quarter, with two TDs and a halftime lead. Katy Perry keeps it together, and knowing Pete Carroll, he may let his team watch a few minutes of the performance to loosen them up. I’m predicting that Seattle cuts the lead in the third quarter, with the biggest play being a Bobby Wagner safety. Seattle’s offense will get it together after struggling for 40 minutes, taking a 22-20 lead and stopping New England from reaching field goal range inside of five minutes.
PREDICTION: Seahawks 22, Patriots 20.
Bobby Wagner got a controversial MVP vote, but I expect him to get a lot more Sunday night. (PC: Perry Knotts/NFL)