“God, what a mess, on the ladder of success … where you take one step and miss the whole first rung/dreams, unfulfilled, graduate unskilled … it beats picking cotton, and waiting to be forgotten” The Replacements, “Bastards of Young”, Tim (1985)
With the 2012 NFL Draft’s first round taking place tonight and the rest of the draft carrying on through Saturday night, I thought I’d mix things up a bit. For the past several months, you’ve probably been bombarded with mock drafts, prognostications of who teams will pick, which players fit best where, and which NFL teams are wire-tapping your phone calls.
If you ain't cheatin' you ain't trying! -NO Ain'ts
Personally, I hate doing mock drafts, and I have looked to avoid doing them at all costs. I’ve written draft previews for two NFL franchises on GridironGrit.com, the Arizona Cardinals and Saint Louis Rams. No mock, although I did acknowledge that both of these teams are extreme longshots to be serious contenders in 2012.
No matter here. In this NFL Draft article, I’ll simply discuss what teams have failed to replace, and the kind of player that they once had that could really benefit the team going forward. I am doing this on the fly, but some of these players could be HOF’ers, or some just really good starters. Let’s go down the line:
Indianapolis Colts (#1): We know they are drafting QB Andrew Luck to replace 1998 first-round pick QB Peyton Manning, but like I wrote for NFLTouchdown.com, the Colts had problems beyond the QB in 2011. Opposing QBs put up a 103.9 passer rating against them in 2011. I’m reaching hard here, but the Colts need a CB like Bobby Boyd. Boyd was a Baltimore Colt from 1960-1968, and he intercepted a team record 57 passes. Why so far back? Because Boyd is the last Colts CB to make the Pro Bowl! Although CB Eugene Daniel (1984-1996) probably would have if the Colts weren’t so bad then.
Washington Redskins (#2): Likewise for the Redskins, we already know they have Robert Griffin III, and hopefully he won’t be disappointing like first-round QBs Patrick Ramsey and Jason Campbell were in the past decade. It’s a damn shame that FS Sean Taylor left this Earth too soon, as he is actually the kind of defender that would complete the Redskins’ defense.
Minnesota Vikings (#3): I’ve given up on the Vikings ever making sense. They need a LT, Matt Kalil is right there for the taking, but I guess they’ll be content on letting 2011 first-round reach QB Christian Ponder fulfill his legacy as the next Rob Johnson. Then again … It doesn’t matter if Ponder is upright and takes the next step, because the Vikings’ secondary is equally atrocious, allowing a 107.6 passer rating and a league-worst 34 TDs. They could use another FS like Darren Sharper to go with the new additions at CB.
Cleveland Browns (#4): Let’s face it – the Browns (more specifically, RB Peyton Hillis) were screwed when Hillis landed on the cover of Madden. He immediately went into the tank and now he’s off the team. Right now, the Browns are in desperate need of skill players. But since they’re not getting immediate help with a QB (not with those receivers) or WR (not this high in the draft), they should be picking RB Trent Richardson. Maybe next year when they’re terrible they go for a QB, but the Browns have yet to replace WR Braylon Edwards, circa 2007 when he had 16 TDs from Derek Anderson. (Yes, Derek Anderson. Give McCoy a legitimate receiver before selling out to replace him!)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#5): Sure this team led the league in turnovers, but that can be fixed. The bigger concern: how bad the defense has decayed. I mean, the Buccaneers couldn’t stop anyone, and looked like they couldn’t care less. That hasn’t been more evident than in the run defense, where the Buccaneers haven’t replaced OLB Derrick Brooks. In the three years since he’s been gone, the Buccaneers have ranked 32nd, 31st, and 31st in run defense.
Saint Louis Rams (#6): This one’s easy: Torry Holt. No Ram has even come close to the 796 receiving yards Holt had in his final season in STL in 2008. Like McCoy in Cleveland, it would help if Bradford had someone to throw to in his third NFL season.
Jacksonville Jaguars (#7): What is it with these teams surrounding their young QBs with awful receivers? QB Blaine Gabbert had no business starting last season, and hopefully he’ll improve … everything in 2012. He looked really, really bad. But how good was he supposed to be throwing to WRs Mike Thomas, Jason Hill, and Jarett Dillard? I know they signed Laurent Robinson and Lee Evans, but that’s barely acceptable. It seems like only one Jags WR plays well per season, and they’ve busted at the top thrice in the last 13 years (R. Jay Soward, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones). No Jaguars receiver has hit 1,000 yards receiving since Jimmy Smith retired after the 2005 season.
Miami Dolphins (#8): The Dolphins are in trouble, because it looks like they have nobody to throw the ball to (again?!), yet they keep getting embarrassed by coaching and quarterbacking prospects. But in reality, it won’t matter who the Dolphins replace Brandon Marshall with if they keep putting up an offensive line that will get the QB killed. The Dolphins are set at LT with Jake Long, but they need a respectable RT, since they haven’t had one since Norm Evans held it down for the Dolphins as their first ever RT from 1966-1975.
Carolina Panthers (#9): The Panthers’ secondary fell off last season, but the bigger problem was the fact that they couldn’t stop the run … again. The Panthers have a franchise QB in Cam Newton now, but they need to stop messing around and finally replace Kris Jenkins at DT.
Buffalo Bills (#10): The Bills finally bought in a pass rusher in DE Mario Williams, and he joins a defensive line that already promises to be stout with Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams at DT. I think their defense will be much, much improved in 2012 if 2011 rookies CB Aaron Williams, ILB Kelvin Sheppard, and SS Da’Norris Searcy step up. Especially Sheppard, being that the Bills have for one reason or another been awful against the run for years. But expecting 2011 rookie OT Chris Hairston to do the same at LT is not sound judgment, and the Bills should be looking to solidify a spot long-term, something they haven’t done since John Fina was the Bills’ LT from 1993-2001.
Kansas City Chiefs (#11): The Chiefs can stand to get more playmakers in the front seven, but I’m tired of making excuses for the Chiefs. This is a team that hasn’t used a first-round pick on a QB since 1983. And that was when they passed on Jim Kelly and Dan Marino (and for what it was worth, Tony Eason and Ken O’Brien) to select Todd Blackledge. That’s awful. At this rate, the Chiefs would probably not mind a young Trent Green, since he did produce in his six years in KC … and since no one else seems to have inspired confidence since he left after the 2006 season.
Seattle Seahawks (#12): The Seahawks signed QB Matt Flynn to “compete” with QB Tarvaris Jackson, so if Flynn can’t beat Jackson out that’s bad. But the bigger problem for the Seahawks is that they have serious issues on the offensive line, even with spending recent first-round picks on LT Russell Okung (who is talented but needs to stay healthy to be consistent) and RT James Carpenter (who may not be that talented and is coming off an ACL tear). The fact is, they have failed to replace Steve Hutchinson at LG, and the Seahawks’ offense (especially the run game) has been inconsistent since.
Arizona Cardinals (#13): The Cardinals allowed 54 sacks last season, and if they could free themselves of first-round bust LT Levi Brown, they would. The Cardinals have a tradition of mostly awful offensive line play (worst I can recall is QB Jake Plummer’s rookie season in 1997, where the Cardinals allowed 78 sacks and averaged 3.2 yards per rushing attempt). They are still looking for a long-term replacement for LT Luis Sharpe, who was the Cardinals’ starting LT for his entire career (1982-1994), making the Pro Bowl from 1987-1989.
Dallas Cowboys (#14): The Cowboys are the New York Knicks of the NFL, having won just one playoff game in the last 15 seasons. The Cowboys haven’t quite replaced SS Roy Williams. Before injuries made Williams a coverage liability, he was the type of playmaking safety who played his best along the line of scrimmage, but was versatile enough to start at FS in the twilight of SS Darren Woodson’s career.
Philadelphia Eagles (#15): The Eagles actually messed around and finished in the top ten on both sides of the ball last year. But it goes down as a wasted season since they started 4-8. They finally have an ILB who can play in DeMeco Ryans, but the other LBs are unimpressive. They haven’t had an impact WLB since William Thomas, who played for the Eagles from 1991-1999. Thomas racked up 33 sacks and 18 INTs in his nine seasons with the Eagles, making two Pro Bowls (1995-1996).
New York Jets (#18): Fact of the matter is that the Jets were painfully inefficient offensively last season. Their talent at the skill positions were at best, overrated. QB Mark Sanchez scored a lot of points, but he’s not a franchise QB after three seasons. The most dangerous offensive threat, WR Santonio Holmes, self-destructed. RB Shonn Greene and TE Dustin Keller weren’t difference makers, and RB LaDainian Tomlinson and WR Plaxico Burress showed they’re past their respective primes. But they need a RT more than anything. The Jets would have one of the best offensive lines in the league if they had a RT like Marvin Powell, a nine-year starter for the Jets from 1977-1985, making the Pro Bowl five times and being named an All-Pro three times.
Cincinnati Bengals (#17): The Bengals turned their defense around and turned in only their third winning season since 1991. They have done a great job replacing QB Carson Palmer and WR Chad Ochocinco with 2011 rookies QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green, but they have yet to replace LG Eric Steinbach (2003-2006). Call it a crazy coincidence, but the Bengals never had a losing season with Steinbach starting.
San Diego Chargers (#18): The Chargers spent most of the middle of the season getting burned deep down the field. It’s probably the curse of SS Rodney Harrison that is the cause of the Chargers failing to have a legitimate playmaker there since Harrison’s departure after the 2002 season.
Chicago Bears (#19): You know the deal with the Bears over the years: great special teams, mostly good defense, frustrating offense. A big reason for that frustrating offense? An abysmal offensive line at almost every position. Sure it’s been ten years since the Bears’ last 1,000 yard WR, but they picked up WR Brandon Marshall to reunite him with former Broncos QB Jay Cutler. They could use stability at LT, something they haven’t had since LT Jimbo Covert was an eight-year starter, making two All-Pro teams in the process (1985-1986) on one of the most stable offensive lines in NFL history.
Tennessee Titans (#20): The Titans somehow had a winning record in head coach Mike Munchak’s first season despite a transition at QB, a season in the tank for RB Chris Johnson, and WR Kenny Britt’s ACL injury. The defense was also very young, but players stepped up and played well for the most part. But the Titans run game peaked in 2009, and while Johnson could be better, he does have a point about the lack of holes up front. The Titans have failed to adequately replace C Kevin Mawae.
Detroit Lions (#23): Just when you think the Lions have it figured out, WR Calvin Johnson ends up on the cover of Madden. Oh well. The Lions made it to the playoffs off the strengths of monster seasons from Megatron, QB Matthew Stafford, and DE Cliff Avril. But when the defense wasn’t making a big play, they were giving up one. I’m going way back here like I did the Colts, but the Lions have never really replaced CB Lem Barney. Sure, Dre’ Bly made a couple of Pro Bowls in the last decade, but Barney played his entire Hall of Fame career with the Lions from 1967-1977, and since 1978 no Lions CB has been a Pro Bowler on a winning team (sorry Dre’).
Pittsburgh Steelers (#24): Much like QB Jay Cutler in Chicago, QB Ben Roethlisberger has had to deal with a bad offensive line; in his case, pretty much his entire career. Roethlisberger is 30 now, though, and eventually his body won’t be able to withstand the annual pounding, especially as his athleticism erodes. The players the Steelers have started at LT since Marvel Smith’s prime have been underwhelming at best.
Denver Broncos (#25): The Broncos rode the wave of Tebowmania to an incredible season that saw them win six straight games, back into a division title, defeat the Steelers in OT in the Wild Card, then trade Tebow to New York after signing QB Peyton Manning. While they hope Manning can take a hit, the Broncos should worry about the fact that they haven’t had a consistent force in the middle of the defensive line since DT Trevor Pryce some ten years ago.
Houston Texans (#26): This is going to be interesting. Who haven’t the Texans replaced? They just made the playoffs for the first time in its short franchise history, and they could have been a Super Bowl team if QB Matt Schaub stayed healthy. They completely turned the defense around, especially the secondary. But it wasn’t just Schaub’s injury that hurt the Texans; it was WR Andre Johnson’s injury that showed a lack of reliable receiving threats. The Texans’ first deep threat was WR Corey Bradford; a player like him would help Schaub and Johnson a lot now.
New England Patriots (#27): The Patriots have had defensive issues for a few years now, and though they always draft an abundance of CBs, the real issue to me lies at FS. The Patriots have had plenty of impact SSs, but the last reliable FS the team has had long-term? Fred Marion, who played his entire ten year career with New England (1982-1991, one Pro Bowl in 1985) and notched 29 INTs.
Green Bay Packers (#28): As bad as the Patriots’ secondary was, the Packers set the record for most passing yards allowed in a single season, in addition to starting the season 13-0. The Packers also didn’t have a single pass-rushing threat opposite OLB Clay Matthews, as the team has failed to repair the hole opened up when DE Aaron Kampman left.
Baltimore Ravens (#29): The Ravens finally figured out their division, going undefeated in the AFC North, and did everything but finish the job in the AFC Championship. In fact … maybe that’s what the Ravens really need. K Billy Cundiff had a rough year even before his missed FG in the AFC Championship. Do you think Matt Stover makes that FG?
San Francisco 49ers (#30): The 49ers turned their defense into a league force, and new head coach Jim Harbaugh pushed all of the right buttons, especially for his QB Alex Smith. Even with the positive season, the team could stand to improve their offensive line, especially in pass protection. RG is typically a 49ers revolving door, or at least it’s been that way since Randy Cross was playing for the team from 1976-1988.
New York Giants (#32): You may have heard, the Giants won the Super Bowl. They did it despite going 9-7 in the regular season, giving hope to all fringe playoff teams. A big reason for the regular season struggle was their play at LB, and specifically, they have not replaced ILB Antonio Pierce.
Atlanta Falcons (#55): The Falcons have been such a well coached team under head coach Mike Smith that you tend to know exactly what they lack on both sides of the ball. And in the Falcons case last year, it was clear the offensive line was holding the team back. That’s probably because they haven’t found a LT they’re comfortable with since the days of LT Bob Whitfield, who left after 12 seasons in 2004.
New Orleans Saints (#89): The Saints already didn’t have a first-round pick because they traded it to New England, and now they lost a second-round pick due to Bountygate. The Saints were my pick to win the Super Bowl this past season, but the risk taking didn’t pay off for the Saints as they only had 33 sacks and 9 INTs despite the constant blitzing and opportunity to blitz. The run defense also fell off. The Saints really haven’t had an impact player in the middle of the defensive line since DTs La’Roi Glover and Wayne Martin left over ten years ago.
Oakland Raiders (#95): The Raiders don’t pick until the last pick of the third-round, having used a first-round pick on QB Carson Palmer, a second-round pick on a draft-day trade to New England that netted them 2011 rookies OT Joseph Barksdale and RB Taiwan Jones, and a third-round pick on QB Terrelle Pryor in the Supplemental Draft. Well, those days of irresponsibility are probably gone with Al Davis’ passing. The Raiders have themselves a talented, if not mistake-prone, offense. The defense did them in last season, as they gave up 31 TD passes to go along with their annually embarrassing run defense. While it would help if someone on the back end stepped in to help the secondary, it is also fair to mention that the Raiders haven’t had a Pro Bowl OLB since Rod Martin and Hall-of-Famer Ted Hendricks. The Raiders never had a problem stopping the run in the 1980s, but their LBs have been a revolving door since leaving Los Angeles.
Well, that’s the league right there. It’s amazing to see how teams can go so long without replacing what seems to be an annual sore spot on the roster. I started this article before the draft, and now it is Friday. Teams still have the rest of the draft to fill needs and add talent, preferably at the same time. But will they?
Too bad this wasn't written last year during the draft, QB Shane Falco would have had much more relevance during the NFL Lockout.
-1SKILLZ