Happy day. Every week I’m going to try and go through every week of games, and then put the NU Gameplan back in effect. I dropped the Hypothesis Report last week, and I said I would hold myself even more accountable this season for my wild antics. This is my best forum to let loose on my observations and analysis from week to week, so let’s box.
Week 1 of the NFL featured 12 games out of 16 that were decided by less than seven points. I went 11-5, missing on the Bears, Lions, Titans, Cowboys, and Eagles. Let’s get right into what I saw and what you should keep your eye on:
2013 Week 1 NFL picks (+29 last year): DEN, NE, SEA, CIN, MIA, MIN, IND, KC, NO, NYJ, PIT, STL, SF, NYG, WAS, HOU
— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) September 5, 2013
Broncos 49, Ravens 27 – Broncos QB Peyton Manning became the first player post-merger to throw seven TD passes in a game. The Ravens secondary simply got worse as the game went on, as tackling became optional in the second half. But the Ravens need to play better overall; the Ravens had a punt blocked, both of Ravens QB Joe Flacco’s INTs were brutal, and the Ravens’ TEs (Ed Dickson, Dallas Clark) are painfully unreliable. Baltimore lost WR Jacoby Jones, but Marlon Brown might be a good enough replacement at flanker due to his size. The Broncos’ pass game could be even better when you consider WR Eric Decker’s struggles. But 65 rushing yards is not a good look. Denver will need to run the ball better at some point, and I don’t know if they’ll get it together.
Patriots 23, Bills 21 – The Patriots won a game they probably should have lost. When they needed QB Tom Brady, WR Danny Amendola, and RB Shane Vereen the most, they delivered. Amendola (10 catches, 104 yards) picked up three first downs, Vereen (14 carries, 104 yards) set up Patriots K Stephen Gostkowski, and the Patriots took a road win in the division despite three brutal turnovers that turned into 14 points for Buffalo. Bills rookie QB EJ Manuel (2 TDs, 0 INTs, 18/27 for 157 passing yards, 23 rushing yards) gained some fans for showing competence, but ultimately, the Bills’ inability to pick up first downs in the fourth quarter helped set the stage for Brady’s fourth quarter comeback.
Chiefs 28, Jaguars 2 – Chiefs QB Alex Smith threw two short TD passes, then got out of the way. This game between the two worst teams in the NFL last season featured 20 punts and 469 yards of offense combined. Peyton Manning threw for 462 yards by himself in Week 1. Smith’s TD passes were set up by a Dexter McCluster punt return and a Brandon Flowers INT return. The Jaguars blocked a punt for a safety and then it was all downhill from there, as they didn’t force a turnover, only had one sack, and watched QB Blaine Gabbert (and to be fair, the entire Jaguars offense) further descend towards dysfunction. Gabbert was sacked six times, threw two INTs (one returned for a TD), passed for only 121 yards, and left the game with an injury. The Jaguars looked much worse than the Chiefs looked good.
Saints 23, Falcons 17 – I expected both teams to score four touchdowns apiece, not four touchdowns combined. Both QBs threw for over 300 yards, two TDs, and an INT. Both teams received unimpressive performances from the run game. Falcons RB Steven Jackson broke off a 50-yard run, but had only 27 yards on his other 10 carries. Saints RB Mark Ingram had only 11 yards on 9 carries. The Saints did a great job of harassing Falcons QB Matt Ryan, sacking him three times and forcing him into a game-ending INT on 4th-and-goal at the 3. Atlanta’s offensive line is going to hold back that offense until further notice.
Seahawks 12, Panthers 7 – The Seahawks escaped with a win even though RB Marshawn Lynch had absolutely nowhere to run (43 yards on 17 rushes). The big knock on Panthers head coach Ron Rivera is the Panthers’ 2-13 record in games decided by 7 points or less, this one included. The conservative Panthers typically play not to lose, which is unacceptable. Facing a 4th and 2 from midfield in the fourth quarter with a one-point lead, the Panthers (featuring strong runners at RB, FB, and QB) punted. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (25/33, 320 passing) found WR Jermaine Kearse for a 43-yard TD. The next time Carolina had the ball, they drove down the field down 12-7, only for RB DeAngelo Williams to lose a fumble inside the Seattle 10. They never saw the ball again. The Seahawks gave up 52 passing yards to Panthers QB Cam Newton on a drive that ended with a TD reception by WR Steve Smith, and only 73 passing yards outside of that.
Jets 18, Buccaneers 17 – Jets QB Geno Smith (24/38, 256 pass yards, one TD, one INT, 47 rushing yards) led a penalty-aided game-winning drive that ended with a Nick Folk FG from 48 yards. The Jets couldn’t shut down WRs Vincent Jackson (154 yards on 7 catches) or WR Mike Williams (52 yards on 4 catches, one TD), but other Buccaneers WRs combined for four yards total. RB Doug Martin ran for a TD, but gained only 65 yards on 24 carries. Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman was only 15/31 passing for 210 yards, one TD, one INT, and three sacks taken. For all the yuks the Jets have received coming into this year, it was the Buccaneers who played like buffoons, losing two points on a safety (bad snap) and racking up 102 yards on 13 penalties, including OLB Lavonte David’s late hit on Smith to set up Folk’s FG.
Bears 24, Bengals 21 – Jay Cutler (5th most sacked QB last season) + Bengals (One of three teams last season with 50+ sacks) + 33 pass attempts + zero sacks = major progress. Cutler found WR Brandon Marshall for 104 yards on 8 catches, including a 19-yard go-ahead TD in the fourth quarter. So far, so good for the Marc Trestman era in Chicago. Dishonorable mention for Bengals ILB Rey Maualuga, who ended the Bengals’ chances with a 15-yard penalty after a 3rd down stop.
Colts 21, Raiders 17 – Like EJ Manuel, Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor gained some appreciation for exceeding low expectations in a losing effort. Unlike EJ Manuel, Pryor (19/29 pass yards, one TD, two INTs, 112 rushing yards) had two crippling turnovers on his first and last drives of the game. Colts QB Andrew Luck gets another fourth-quarter comeback/game-winning drive to his credit and was just as impressive running (38 yards, half of which came on a game-winning TD run) as he was passing (18/23 for 178 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs), but his offensive line isn’t a whole lot better (four sacks allowed). Pryor’s athleticism will stress defenses, and the Cam Newton comparisons were given new life. His flaws as a passer (mechanics, decision making still leave something to be desired.
Titans 16, Steelers 9 – This game ended with Titans KR Darius Reynaud kneeling into a safety on the opening kickoff. Much like the Jaguars, it was all downhill from there for the Steelers. Pittsburgh had won ten straight home openers, but the Titans avalanched the Steelers’ offensive line, especially after C Maurkice Pouncey blew out his knee. The Titans held the Steelers to 32 rushing yards (Steelers RB Isaac Redman lost a red zone fumble, RB LaRod Stephens-Howling tore his ACL). Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger threw an INT and was sacked five times (Titans OLB Zach Brown and DT Jurrell Casey had two each) while completing 21 of 33 passes for only 191 yards and one TD. The Titans turned their noses to passing the ball, running twice as much as they threw. The Steelers wasted a lot of time in the second half (four three-and-outs), and will need to rely on Roethlisberger’s passing and playmaking ability behind a substandard offensive line.
Dolphins 23, Browns 10 – Neither team could run the ball in this game or protect the quarterback. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill survived four sacks by completing 24 of 38 passes for 272 yards, one TD, and one INT. WR Brian Hartline had 114 receiving yards on 9 catches, including a 34-yard TD. Browns QB Brandon Weeden threw three INTs before finding TE Jordan Cameron (108 yards on 9 catches) for a TD at the end of the first half. Cleveland let the game get away from them, as Weeden threw four times (53) as many passes as RB Trent Richardson had rush attempts (13). Dolphins DE Cameron Wake had 2.5 sacks, including one on 4th-and-2 in the fourth quarter.
Rams 27, Cardinals 24 – Rams TE Jared Cook was a beast (141 yards, two TDs), and Rams K Greg Zuerlein made all four of his FG attempts, including a go-ahead 48-yarder set up by Cook’s final reception for 25 yards. The Cardinals got 327 passing yards from new QB Carson Palmer, and WR Larry Fitzgerald caught two TDs. Neither team ran the ball effectively, but while Rams QB Sam Bradford didn’t take a sack, Palmer went down four times, losing a fourth quarter fumble on one of them.
Lions 34, Vikings 24 – Lions RB Reggie Bush made an immediate impact, rushing for 90 yards and racking up 101 yards receiving, including a 77-yard TD reception that turned the game upside down. The Vikings stacked coverage towards Lions WR Calvin Johnson (37 yards on four receptions), but they failed to keep other Lions out of the end zone (two goal line TDs by RBs Joique Bell, one reception by TE Joseph Fauria). Vikings QB Christian Ponder had four turnovers (three INTs, lost fumble), and RB Adrian Peterson (93 yards on 18 carries, two TDs) struggled to find running room after ripping off a 78-yard TD run on the first play from scrimmage. But the Vikings secondary was torched by Lions QB Matthew Stafford (28/43, 357 yards, two TDs, one INT).
49ers 34, Packers 28 – 49ers WR Anquan Boldin had 208 yards on 13 catches and one TD, while QB Colin Kaepernick completed 27 of 39 passes for 416 yards, three TDs, and zero turnovers. The 49ers didn’t run all that well (90 yards on 34 attempts, one TD by RB Frank Gore), but they ran enough to keep the Packers’ defense honest – a defense that would be gashed repeatedly by Boldin and TE Vernon Davis (98 yards on six catches, two TDs). My favorite decision of this game? The 49ers decided to go for it on 4th-and-2 with 3:00 left on the Green Bay 36 with a 31-28 lead. Boldin caught his final pass of the game for 15 yards, setting up a FG and sending the Packers the ball with 26 seconds and no timeouts left. Ron Rivera probably punts in that situation.
Cowboys 36, Giants 31 – The Cowboys had the turnover differential advantage (6-to-1), and they needed every single one of them to hold off an embarrassingly sloppy Giants team. Cowboys QB Tony Romo threw a lot of short passes (36/49, 263 yards, two TDs, one INT), and the Cowboys got a decent rushing performance from RB DeMarco Murray (86 yards on 20 rushes). Despite the excessive amounts of passes (RE: the Cowboys lack of a fullback and lack of a backup for Murray is an issue for me), Romo was only sacked twice, and while his INT was returned 91 yards, the Giants only got a FG out of the turnover. When the Giants weren’t giving the ball away, they were destroying the Cowboys’ secondary, especially WR Victor Cruz (three TD receptions). In fact, the Giants had three WRs go over 100 yards (Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Rueben Randle) while QB Eli Manning completed 27 of 42 passes for 450 passing yards and four TDs. The Giants’ turnovers: one muffed punt (led to a TD catch by TE Jason Witten), two lost fumbles by RB David Wilson (one inside the Dallas 10, one returned for a TD), and three Manning INTs (one on the first play of the game, the second representing the third straight drive to end in a turnover, the last returned for a TD). It was bad enough that Wilson lost fumbles, but he didn’t run well either (19 yards on 7 carries) while faltering in pass protection. The Giants don’t have a trustworthy back right now.
Eagles 33, Redskins 27 – Of all the teams that don’t use a fullback (Broncos, Cardinals, Cowboys, Lions, Rams, Eagles), the Eagles were the only team to rush for over 4.0 yards per attempt. RB LeSean McCoy (184 yards on 31 attempts, one 34-yard TD) and QB Michael Vick (54 rushing yards, one rushing TD) absolutely blitzed the Redskins, hanging up 33 points with over 13 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Redskins QB Robert Griffin III (30/49, 329 pass yards, two TDs, two INTs) had his first multi-INT game of his career, and the Redskins never got their run game going.
Texans 31, Chargers 28 – Chargers QB Philip Rivers had his team up 28-7 at home after tossing his fourth TD pass. But the Chargers simply could not get off the field, as QB Matt Schaub (34/45, 346 yards, three TDs, one INT) showed he can take over a game, especially when he has WR Andre Johnson (146 yards on 12 catches). The Texans have two red zone threats at TE in Owen Daniels (67 yards on five catches, two TDs) and Garrett Graham (27 yards on four catches, one TD), and it didn’t matter if it was 3rd-and-four or 3rd-and-18, the Chargers failed to disrupt Schaub in a game that ended with a walk-off 41-yard FG by K Randy Bullock. The Texans were getting killed by mismatches early, but the biggest play of the game was by Texans ILB Brian Cushing, as he read Rivers’ eyes and tied the game at 28 with a pick-six. The Chargers failed to pick up a single first down after going up by 21, setting up the largest comeback in Texans history.
THE GAMEPLAN for WEEK 2
2013 Week 2 NFL picks (11-5 in Week 1, +6 in 2013): NE, ATL, BAL, BUF, CHI, GB, HOU, IND, KC, PHI, ARI, TB, DEN, OAK, SEA, CIN
— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) September 12, 2013
Patriots over Jets: The Patriots’ offense is at its most vulnerable since 2006, the last time Patriots QB Tom Brady didn’t have Randy Moss, Wes Welker, or Aaron Hernandez. It’s a short week and the Patriots will be without RB Shane Vereen, WR Danny Amendola, and TE Rob Gronkowski. Plus, RB Stevan Ridley’s ball security issues popped up again, while rookies WR Kenbrell Thompkins and TE Zach Sudfeld were mistake-prone. But the Patriots are home and facing a rookie QB (Geno Smith) in his first road start. It’s hard to see Smith being optimally prepared to face a Belichick-coached defense.
Falcons over Rams: The Steven Jackson Bowl! The Rams are going to look for matchups to feature TE Jared Cook, although they need to get better production from their run game. The game is in Atlanta, and I expect the Falcons to give QB Matt Ryan a slightly better effort in protection. I’m sure Jackson will have an opportunity to be a significant factor in this game, and if Ryan gets any time to throw, he should be able to find WR Julio Jones and TE Tony Gonzalez while attacking the Rams’ safeties.
Bills over Panthers: The Panthers are going to have some success being more aggressive, but the Bills defensive line might give QB Cam Newton some trouble. Panthers WR Steve Smith should have a big game. EJ Manuel held up against a stout front seven the week before, and the Panthers have holes that could be exploited in the secondary. The Bills need to keep Manuel in manageable down-and-distance situations with C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, but shots to WRs Stevie Johnson, Robert Woods, and T.J. Graham need to be taken.
Bears over Vikings: The Vikings’ defense didn’t show up in Detroit, and going to Chicago isn’t much of a break due to the respectable abilities of QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte, WR Brandon Marshall, and an improved offensive line. Minnesota needs a consistent performance from RB Adrian Peterson and QB Christian Ponder. Peterson had big games against the Bears last season, but Ponder struggled. Chicago is going to test the Vikings’ LBs; expect Forte to be a featured player, especially if Marshall gets the Megatron treatment.
Colts over Dolphins: The Colts beat the Dolphins by this same score in Indianapolis last November, and I think the teams are going to play another close one on Sunday. If the Colts had trouble protecting QB Andrew Luck against the Raiders, just wait until they have to block up Miami’s front seven. Luck’s only career 400+-yard performance came against the Dolphins last year, and the Colts will probably have to rely on Luck’s arm to move the ball once again. Miami has to do a much better job running the ball in Indianapolis than they did against the Browns last week (20 yards on 23 attempts).
Packers over Redskins: The Redskins are playing in Green Bay on a short week with a QB (Robert Griffin III) coming off of his first game since major knee surgery. Expect the Packers to make life difficult on Griffin after getting torched by Anquan Boldin in San Francisco. The Redskins need to see if their run game can get going in Green Bay. The Redskins are going to bring a lot of pressure up front, but Packers QB Aaron Rodgers should have his pick of mismatches in the Redskins’ secondary.
Texans over Titans: The Texans have won three of the four matchups between these two teams since the Titans hired Mike Munchak as head coach, and the one win for Tennessee was a 2011 Week 17 matchup that the Texans treated like a preseason game. In the other three games, the Titans scored a combined 31 points. The Titans are going to run as much as possible, but the Texans always find a way to score on the Titans. Texans QB Matt Schaub has 16 TD passes and only one INT in his last seven starts against the Titans.
Chiefs over Cowboys: The Cowboys are coming into hostile territory for the Chiefs’ home opener, and new Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is familiar with the Cowboys, so it won’t be just any inter-conference game. The last time the Cowboys played in Kansas City, WR Miles Austin went off for 250 receiving yards and pretty much ended Maurice Leggett’s career. The matchup to watch will be the aggressive front seven of the Chiefs against the Cowboys’ offensive line. OLBs Tamba Hali and Justin Houston and NT Dontari Poe are all coming off of dominant performances in Jacksonville, while the Cowboys were dangerously pass-heavy against the Giants. Look for the Chiefs to feature RB Jamaal Charles and keep their mistakes to a minimum.
Eagles over Chargers: The last four teams to face the Eagles in the Eagles’ home opener have won the Super Bowl. The Chargers aren’t going to the Super Bowl, to clear that up. The Chargers are going to the East Coast on a short week after a demoralizing loss. Chargers QB Philip Rivers might get hot at some point, but it remains to be seen if he he will have the protection and run support to take pressure off of him. The Eagles will not take the Chargers by surprise with their tempo, and 31 carries for RB LeSean McCoy is hard to see with the Eagles also coming off of a short week. That said, the Chargers’ defense showed a troubling inability to get off the field on third down in Week One. Their lack of depth and playmaking ability will be a problem in Philadelphia.
Ravens over Browns: I know that Jimmy Haslam is the owner of the Cleveland Browns (for now), but Ravens head coach John Harbaugh has ownership over the Browns that precedes Haslam. The Ravens have beaten the Browns all ten times since Harbaugh became head coach in 2008, and the Browns haven’t broken 20 points in Baltimore during that span. The Ravens had ten days to figure out what went wrong against the Broncos. Baltimore will need to do a better job of defending the TE and prepare to tackle RB Trent Richardson. Baltimore will also be challenged to score much on a Browns front seven that overwhelmed the Dolphins. This will be a low scoring affair, and turnovers will be a major factor (and advantage to Ravens QB Joe Flacco).
Cardinals over Lions: The Lions have playmakers at RB in Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, and it will be hard for the Cardinals to take away all of those weapons. The Cardinals need a big day from their receivers, since the Cardinals offensive line will have its hands full trying to block the Detroit defensive line. Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson did well in his matchup with Lions WR Calvin Johnson last year; the Lions do not have a player who should be able to single cover Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald.
Buccaneers over Saints: The last time these teams played, Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman lobbed four INTs and the Saints shut the Bucs out. The Buccaneers have spent draft picks and cash flow in the secondary for a game like this, but Freeman needs to have a big game in the home opener because the Buccaneers won’t stop QB Drew Brees from threatening 30 points. The Saints will blitz plenty, and Freeman has to lead TD drives. The probable return of LG Carl Nicks and FB Erik Lorig should help RB Doug Martin. The Buccaneers can be more balanced than New Orleans, and that can set the stage for an upset.
Raiders over Jaguars: The loser of this game has pole position for the first overall pick in the 2014 Draft. The Raiders beat the Jaguars in overtime last year, a game in which Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert gave the Jags a 14-3 lead before leaving with an injury. Jaguars QB Chad Henne was ineffective, completing only 9 of 20 passes for 71 yards. Henne will start in place of an injured Gabbert Sunday, and if he plays like he usually does (career: 42 TDs, 48 INTs), then he won’t keep the starting job. The Jaguars will be better off throwing Gabbert back into the fire so he can further prove he is not the quarterback of the future in Jacksonville. Henne’s job is made difficult by the suspension of WR Justin Blackmon and probable absence of TE Marcedes Lewis. Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew injured his foot in Oakland last season as well; he’s back and he’ll need to be the focal point of the Jaguars’ offense. The Raiders have an underwhelming group of receivers for QB Terrelle Pryor, but this might be his best chance to put up big passing numbers, as the Jaguars are razor-thin at CB. The Jaguars’ pass rush is nonexistant, so Pryor should be able to make plays (and hopefully show better decision-making).
Broncos over Giants: Luckily for the Giants, this game is in their building instead of the altitude in Denver. Unfortunately for the Giants, their sorry secondary is probably going to get lit up anyway. Both teams seem like they don’t have a stable rushing attack, so it will be bombs away for the Manning brothers. Eli could very well throw four TD passes and lose – like last week in Dallas. The Giants’ turnover issues in that game were embarrassing; needless to say, they’ll be in trouble if they lose the turnover battle to Denver (which they will, at least partly due to their untrustworthy offensive backfield).
Seahawks over 49ers: Last time these two teams met up, Seahawks QB Russell Wilson and WR Doug Baldwin put 49ers CB Carlos Rogers in a clown suit. 49ers DE Justin Smith is back, so I don’t expect Seattle to put up a 40-burger again, but it might not be enough for the 49ers to go up north and knock off the Seahawks. San Francisco should get off to a better start by running right at the Seahawks. Both defenses are highly regarded, but Seattle isn’t great against the run, while the 49ers can be beaten in the air. This game could be a “last QB with the ball wins” scenario.
Bengals over Steelers: I just don’t know how the Steelers plan on moving the ball Monday night. The Steelers don’t have a WR that demands extra attention, are still missing TE Heath Miller, and don’t have any trustworthy RBs with rookie Le’Veon Bell out. But that’s not where the Steelers’ biggest concern is. QB Ben Roethlisberger has dealt with poor offensive lines before, but he’ll be working without C Maurkice Pouncey while the Bengals defensive line (headlined by DT Geno Atkins) looks to bounce back from a zero-sack performance in Chicago. The game will still be close, as the Steelers defend the Bengals well. But Cincinnati simply has more weapons offensively right now.
-1SKILLZ